Thailand’s leading virologist 'scary assessment' of new COVID wave

[webfact]

Picture: Daily News

 

Top Thai virologist Dr Yong Poovorawan painted a grim picture of the potential for harm from Thailand's Covid-19 response coupled with the emergence of the UK variant of the virus.

 

Daily News called it a scary assessment.

 

Dr Yong of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok was speaking after 24 cases of the faster spreading UK variant emerged in mostly asymptomatic people at Thong Lor nightclubs.

 

He said that the spread of the virus of this strain was 1.7 times faster.

 

But he went further comparing this year to last year.

 

Last year there was lockdown, curfew, no alcohol being sold, widespread shop closures, schools closed everywhere and Songkran was cancelled. 

 

This year the situation was completely different.

 

He said that with ten times more virus about, ten times less restriction then things would be 100 times worse.

 

Coupled with the new variant he said that this wave would be 170 times worse than last year. 

 

Of particular concern was the fact that many young people - perhaps full of the virus but asymptomatic - could be taking the virus back to their homes up country where they would pass it on to the vulnerable elderly at ceremonies pouring lustral water on the hands of respected elders. 

 

He was greatly concerned by the spread of Covid at Songkran and the consequences for the country after the holidays that begin next week.

 

He continued to press for more speed in the vaccine rollout while cautioning that infection can still be passed on by vaccinated people. 

 

He sought to allay fears about blood clots from vaccinations. 

 

But his other messages were anything but reassuring, notes Thaivisa, as new measures to possibly prevent interprovincial travel and re-designate the color of seriously affected zones are due to be announced by the CCSA today. 

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2021-04-08

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Would you consider him a fearmonger @starky.  

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

He was greatly concerned by the spread of Covid at Songkran and the consequences for the country after the holidays that begin next week.

 

Sounds much like what I had said yesterday.  I hope I am wrong as well as the good Doctor.

Edited April 8, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Bkk Brian]

Credit and respect to him for speaking out against the narrative that its all under control by Prayut.  Attitude adjustment does not work with him thankfully.

[Phuketshrew]

The government not willing to listen to the experts. Now where have wee seen this before with devastating consequences?

[colinneil]

37 minutes ago, webfact said:

This year the situation was completely different.

Yes this year the major concern is money, not health.

[richard_smith237]

This may be one of the first ‘announcements’ this Dr has made which I find completely agreeable - his points are all valid. 

 

The only outstanding question regarding the more contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 is do more patients present more serious symptoms ?... i.e. do the variants result in more sever Covid-19, greater long term impact, higher fatality rates (per case) ?

[mikebell]

3 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Yes this year the major concern is money, not health.

Every year; every minute of every day.

[bluesofa]

42 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Credit and respect to him for speaking out against the narrative that its all under control by Prayut.  Attitude adjustment does not work with him thankfully.

Yes, I was wondering why he hasn't been arrested under the lese majeste law 112.

That's normally the way they shut people up who continually criticise the ineffective government.

[rabas]

 

Seems the Thai medical establishment is pushing back hard against the government, as they should.

 

 

[xylophone]

34 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Seems the Thai medical establishment is pushing back hard against the government, as they should.

 

 

 It didn't get Dr Fauci far and what happened there........but then again here, the ineptitude of the government is so huge and far-reaching, as well as being money driven, that even the hardest of push backs may prove to be futile. 

[RichardColeman]

50 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Seems the Thai medical establishment is pushing back hard against the government, as they should.

 

 

Only one winner there, mate !

[ourmanflint]

He's right 100x worse than anything Thailand has so far experienced. You should all lockdown now or do as much as you can to get ready for what might come.

 

Don't take stupid risks

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that with ten times more virus about, ten times less restriction then things would be 100 times worse.

 

Coupled with the new variant he said that this wave would be 170 times worse than last year.

Yet they choose to do nothing.

 

Choose being the optimal word here - they're choosing this.

 

Something to bear in mind over the coming couple of months.

 

Don't forget, everything goes back to normal on October 1 ????????

Edited April 8, 2021 by ukrules

[robblok]

13 minutes ago, ukrules said:

Yet they choose to do nothing.

 

Choose being the optimal word here - they're choosing this.

 

Something to bear in mind over the coming couple of months.

 

Don't forget, everything goes back to normal on October 1 ????????

If they do lockdown people complain.. if they don't lockdown people complain. There is no way for them to do it right.

 

I also think its political suicide to cancel songkran. 

[xylophone]

7 minutes ago, robblok said:

I also think its political suicide to cancel songkran. 

As if this government would give a toss.

 

As long as it's backed by its influential rich people, who are only looking after their own interests, it matters not what anyone else thinks, and anyway, amongst the many Thai people I have spoken to, this government leader is about as popular as a rattlesnake in a lucky dip!

 

The Army rules this country and that's not likely to change irrespective of what decisions are made with regard to songkran.

[robblok]

1 minute ago, xylophone said:

As if this government would give a toss.

 

As long as it's backed by its influential rich people, who are only looking after their own interests, it matters not what anyone else thinks, and anyway, amongst the many Thai people I have spoken to, this government leader is about as popular as a rattlesnake in a lucky dip!

 

The Army rules this country and that's not likely to change irrespective of what decisions are made with regard to songkran.

This government gives a toss as they are getting more and more into trouble. They don't want the anti government to get any more traction then it already has. 

 

I know the government is not popular, but if the push to far and i think songkran is important for many Thais they will only get even more unpopular and there comes a time that too many people will rise up (i can only hope that this will happen)

[DJBenz]

4 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The only outstanding question regarding the more contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 is do more patients present more serious symptoms ?... i.e. do the variants result in more sever Covid-19, greater long term impact, higher fatality rates (per case) ?

As with everything, it's early days for data but it appears in the case of B.1.1.7 that it is not only more transmissible, but also potentially more deadly.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00298-1/fulltext

Quote

NERVTAG concluded that there was a “realistic possibility” that infection with B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death, compared with infection with the parental virus. The group stressed that its assessment was based on limited preliminary data and even if the results were confirmed, the overall risk of death would still be low.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

The good doctor is pretty much a broken record.

[natway09]

With all due respect Dr, why did you not get on your soapbox & pressure the Government 

after the major outbreaks 5 months ago at the fishing villave, then the industrial estates, & Samut Prakan ?

His statements reflect hindsight & many members of this forum sxpressed pretty much all he is saying aweeks before, some of it months before

Classic case of left hand having no idea what the right hand is doing at a time when the PM should be keeping the team tight & listening to the specialists not act like Donald

[xylophone]

23 minutes ago, robblok said:

This government gives a toss as they are getting more and more into trouble. They don't want the anti government to get any more traction then it already has. 

 

I know the government is not popular, but if the push to far and i think songkran is important for many Thais they will only get even more unpopular and there comes a time that too many people will rise up (i can only hope that this will happen)

Well we have different opinions, and that's the way it goes.

 

However suffice it to say that Thailand now has a military dictatorship as its government, when it overthrew the democratically elected government, so that's not likely to change, because the military don't want it to, and as long as they have the backing of the rich and powerful, then the status quo will remain, irrespective of how many people "rise up" (which like you, I hope doesn't happen) because the military will not want to cede power as they are getting rich doing what they do.

[robblok]

3 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Well we have different opinions, and that's the way it goes.

 

However suffice it to say that Thailand now has a military dictatorship as its government, when it overthrew the democratically elected government, so that's not likely to change, because the military don't want it to, and as long as they have the backing of the rich and powerful, then the status quo will remain, irrespective of how many people "rise up" (which like you, I hope doesn't happen) because the military will not want to cede power as they are getting rich doing what they do.

Lets agree to disagree. If there were mass protests im sure the government would fall. It would not go easy but they would fall. 

 

I hope it will change but the fact remains that they still have quite some support. They did form a majority. So there is still support. Lets see what the next election will bring. Hopefully there will be again a reincarnation of future forward.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that with ten times more virus about, ten times less restriction then things would be 100 times worse.

 

Coupled with the new variant he said that this wave would be 170 times worse than last year.

Yet the money men want travel to be allowed.... if this gets hold around the country then I hope Prayut & Co take full responsibility.

[rabas]

1 hour ago, natway09 said:

With all due respect Dr, why did you not get on your soapbox & pressure the Government 

after the major outbreaks 5 months ago at the fishing villave, then the industrial estates, & Samut Prakan ?

His statements reflect hindsight & many members of this forum sxpressed pretty much all he is saying aweeks before, some of it months before

Classic case of left hand having no idea what the right hand is doing at a time when the PM should be keeping the team tight & listening to the specialists not act like Donald

 

Because the December spike was the G614 strain long found in the West. And his judgement then now seems correct. He is now warning about the new, far more aggressive B.1.1.7 strain. And again he is correct.  This will likely be obvious after the holiday.

 

[Paul Henry]

If the third wave gets worse all plans and financial forecasts go out the window. Thailand can write off tourist numbers increasing from the third quarter and growing into 2022. Other countries will determine when it will be safe for their citizens to travel and holiday in Thailand. The only light at the end of the tunnel is to get the entire population vaccinated very quickly and not vaccinate just the selected few.

[Cake Monster]

The Missus and I went out this Morning to do a few things in Pattaya.

Not many wearing Masks to be seen.

Came back, stopped at a roadside Food Shop, nobody was wearing a Mask.

Went on into our Ban, to a small Minimart

Again not one person wearing a Mask.

Thailand deserves all it is going to get from this outbreak.

Are there any more indisciplined people on the Planet than Thais I have to ask.

 

[xylophone]

More good news on the way.........we hope:-

 

Five-Day Course of Oral Antiviral Appears to Stop SARS-CoV-2 in Its Tracks.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/947061?src=wnl_tp10n_210408_mscpedit&uac=241165CN&impID=3297782&faf=1 

[Naturesway]

If the only suggestion by the top doctor is to have more restrictions then better not to imagine what the standard doctors knowledges are. Then why is there doctor or virologist needed to give such a smart advices, policeman or soldiers would be enough to that to do the job of restrictions. 

[Surelynot]

46 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

if this gets hold around the country then I hope Prayut & Co take full responsibility.

Mmmmm....you really don't believe that do you?.........They are all ready laying the groundwork for it being Thai citizens fault........please obey the rules, don't travel, please quarantine,  etc......

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Mmmmm....you really don't believe that do you?.........They are all ready laying the groundwork for it being Thai citizens fault........please obey the rules, don't travel, please quarantine,  etc......

And love the police and military, don't forget that peach of a comment.

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The good doctor is pretty much a broken record.

But the only one with the balls to speak the truth