REUTERS FILE PHOTO for reference only

 

BANGKOK, May 6 (Reuters) - Thailand reported 1,911 new coronavirus cases and 18 new deaths on Thursday, as the country continues to deal with a third wave of infections in the pandemic.

 

The new cases took the total number of infections to 76,811 and total fatalities to 336 since the pandemic started last year.

 

(Reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat Editing by Ed Davies)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-05-06

 

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Another flat line day consistent with the last week of cases.

 

Still very high numbers adding stress to an already stretched health service that will buckle over unless this wave is rapidly controlled.

 

There's a limit to the number of field hospitals that can be erected and qualified staff to man. Let alone the continuing increase in serious cases stretching covid wards and ICU's.

Continued decline in deaths...new infections holding steady to slight decline (don't know if statistically significant but better than rising cases). It looks like lockdown lite is working and there continues to be no exponential virus spread.

 

https://twitter.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1390110110442147841

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Thailand discovers 1,911 new cases of COVID-19 with 18 new deaths on Thursday, bringing the total tally to 76,811. #โควิด19 #COVID19 #Thailand #KE

 

Daily new COVID cases of 1,911 represents a 9 percent decline from the 2,112 reported yesterday.  Total COVID deaths since the start off the pandemic rose by 18 to 336.

 

Total number of COVID patients in some type of hospital facility fell to 29,680, down from the 30,022 number reported yesterday, the first time in memory that the daily hospitalized number has fallen. That was due in part to the government reporting that more than 2,400 COVID patients under treatment had been listed as recovered in the past day.

 

However, the share of COVID patients in critical condition and those among the critical patients requiring ventilators to breathe both rose again, hitting 1,073 and 356, respectively. Those numbers had been 1,042 and 343 yesterday.

 

 

The chart below shows the total numbers of cases and COVID deaths that have occurred since the start of Thailand's "third wave" COVID outbreak at the beginning of April, with 47,948 cases and 242 deaths since that time.

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/319837542967910

 

"Thailand is ranked 13th out of 53 countries in Bloomberg news agency's COVID Resilience Rankings for April 2021.Thailand's ranking dropped from 9th to 13th place, with a score of 66.7 points. Neighboring Singapore topped the rankings, overtaking New Zealand.

...

Bloomberg's COVID Resilience Ranking uses a large amount of data to determine where the COVID-19 pandemic is being dealt with most effectively, with the least social and economic disruption. Mortality and testing rates through to vaccine access and freedom of movement are all taken into consideration.

 

The ranking studies 53 countries with economies above 200 billion dollars US, or 6 trillion baht, and takes into account 10 core metrics."

 

The one area where Thailand fared poorly in the Bloomberg rankings was in share of population to have been vaccinated for COVID, with a less than 1 percent rate as of late April.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157997100197050

 

 

21 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Continued decline in deaths...new infections holding steady to slight decline (don't know if statistically significant but better than rising cases). It looks like lockdown lite is working and there continues to be no exponential virus spread.

Statistically weird that's for sure.

26 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Continued decline in deaths...

 

So you think 18 is less than 15?

25 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Continued decline in deaths...new infections holding steady to slight decline (don't know if statistically significant but better than rising cases). It looks like lockdown lite is working and there continues to be no exponential virus spread.

Slight rise in deaths, investigation underway to determine if it's an exponential increase!At this stage the numbers look like they're flatlining.

Latest look at Thailand's rolling 7-day average of new COVID cases from data analysis site Our World in Data continues to show a moderating trend of cases through May 4 update.

 

The 7-day rolling average look is one used by many public health agencies to assess their COVID cases situation because it tends to smooth out the otherwise daily fluctuations that can occur for many reasons and instead look at the broader trend lines.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

This obviously is great news. Does anyone have any update in the number of serious cases / ventilators - These two data sets have not followed the flat lining pattern seen recently and have steadily increased. 

 

Without being cynical does is it possible that the number of tests is also flat lining as well? 

Same 7-day rolling average look at COVID deaths in Thailand continues to show a strong upward trajectory through the latest May 4 data update. Deaths from COVID are almost always a trailing indicator that lags behind the trend lines for new cases.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand?country=~THA#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-cases

 

how many people were tested 

 

a critical number they seem reluctant to put out there which makes this data incomplete

2 minutes ago, smedly said:

how many people were tested 

 

a critical number they seem reluctant to put out there which makes this data incomplete

There is no daily total of active sampling tests (proactive testing). My best guess is somewhere around 4,000 for the whole country, based on around 1,000 random tests in Chonburi, maybe 2,000 in Bangkok, and another 1,000 elsewhere. The result would be a positivity rate below 5%, outside of hotspots like Klong Toey, which is 6%.

 

However, the positivity rate for hospital walk-ins is much higher. Same with testing of close contacts of the infected “persons under investigation “. But those rates are not as predictive as random sampling.

 

one more note: the random samples taken are not random for the whole country, there is no effort to produce an infection map of the country. Instead, only parts of the country are randomly sampled. But, the areas tested are selected because they have more cases. A province with zero cases is not going to be tested much.

I think the schools will not open the 1st of June.....They are not prepared at all... 

Migration push among young-gen Thais ignites fierce debate over country’s direction

 

Thai social media has lit up with heated debate about citizens who have vowed to leave the country over growing frustration with the government’s COVID-19 vaccination policy.

 

Both sides of the political divide, including scholars and political analysts, have been trading barbs and arguments since the launch of the “Yai Prathet Kan Ther” (Let’s Move Out of the Country) Facebook campaign on Saturday (May 1).

 

The campaign, thought to be driven by young people, had drawn more than 700,000 followers as of press time on Tuesday. The campaign’s hashtag was also trending on Twitter, with over 528,000 tweets and retweets.

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/migration-push-among-young-gen-thais-ignites-fierce-debate-over-countrys-direction/

 

11 minutes ago, smedly said:

how many people were tested 

 

a critical number they seem reluctant to put out there which makes this data incomplete

It is not just the number of people tested that is important but in what regions/areas were the tests conducted!

5 minutes ago, fangless said:

It is not just the number of people tested that is important but in what regions/areas were the tests conducted!

Random sampling often takes place in hot spots, which results in a higher positivity rate than would a truly nationwide random sampling.

An idea for these folks would be to Start widening the test areas and not just go where known cases are. Do some real random testing and sampling in communities outside of those known zones to see if you might have cases as well there, before it also turns in a cluster.  

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Random sampling often takes place in hot spots, which results in a higher positivity rate than would a truly nationwide random sampling.

Very true........and having taken action in that locality, continued testing just there will show a downturn......so a very distorted view all round.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Random sampling often takes place in hot spots, which results in a higher positivity rate than would a truly nationwide random sampling.

That's not random sampling. Your testing in a known Hotspot is all your doing.  Going outside of that Hotspot where no known cases exist and sampling folks there is a random sampling.  Just like doing a random poll.  You don't just ask people in one area and call it good.  Time for you to go back to school.

A post has been removed for formatting, and another two for flaming.

 

Please note the forum's rule on formatting:

 

"Please do not post in all capital letters, bold, unusual fonts, sizes, colors or use unusually large emoticons."

I'm waiting for the story where some wally from TAT pops up and says that the quarantine-free Phuket sandbox is still on track for July 1st, lol!

Seriously, though, this is far from under control. Thailand has been recording roughly 1,000 to 2,000 cases a day every day for almost a month now (and well over 2,000 on occasion). The main change is the way that the number of deaths has increased, sadly.

 

Let's hope that they can control the latest outbreak in Klong Toey, and that there are no more of them hiding away in poor, densely-populated areas (though I very much doubt it, to be honest).

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000586

 

Nation Group, partners open online clinic to fight Covid-19

 

 

NationTV, Spring News and AIS have teamed up with more than 30 volunteer doctors, both domestic and overseas, to set up an online clinic to provide medical advice and diagnostics to people suspected of contracting Covid-19, Nation Multimedia Group Plc announced on Wednesday (May 5).

 

 

27 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

An idea for these folks would be to Start widening the test areas and not just go where known cases are. Do some real random testing and sampling in communities outside of those known zones to see if you might have cases as well there, before it also turns in a cluster.  

Might be lack of resources and money. This way is more effective if your resources and money is limited. 

14 minutes ago, robblok said:

Might be lack of resources and money. This way is more effective if your resources and money is limited. 

Thats exactly what it is. CCSA have admitted before it does not do mass "random" testing due to budget, instead it targets areas where cases have already been found through hospital walk ins. 

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thats exactly what it is. CCSA have admitted before it does not do mass "random" testing due to budget, instead it targets areas where cases have already been found through hospital walk ins. 

A version of Johnson's ever so successful "whack-a-mole" strategy that led to 156,000 deaths.

It sounds like there's going to be some additional comment/possible clarification from the government today on the issue of foreigners in Thailand's ability to obtain COVID vaccinations. A Thai language MoPH announcement just concluded.

 

Via Facebook translation into English:

"*** Ministry of Health press conference on issues.

- Case of vaccination for foreigners living in Thailand

By Nopp. Opha Scar Yokwinphong, commissioner of Department of Disease Control ***

 

https://www.facebook.com/470988516420706/videos/937385896995507/

 

A Ministry of Public Health official said in English... "No one is safe until everyone is safe..."

 

An update in English language is expected during the government's daily COVID news briefing, usually just after noon time...

 

 

Every other country has make effort to do more test and put much resource for that! What Thailand do? They order you to use mask when you drive scooter! Numbers in Thailand not tell almost nothing! 

They not tell valid numbers every day, maybe no even know themselves!

53 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

That's not random sampling. Your testing in a known Hotspot is all your doing.  Going outside of that Hotspot where no known cases exist and sampling folks there is a random sampling.  Just like doing a random poll.  You don't just ask people in one area and call it good.  Time for you to go back to school.

You are having a sad because I am not defining their approach of targeting a hotspot and then performing random samples in that hotspot, the way that you would like. Okay, call it what you want.

 

But, you should recognize that they are effectively eliminating the virus in hotspots using their approach.

 

Based on current data, Thailand is reducing the current wave.  That is far more important than what to call their sampling approach.