SURVEY: Re-opening Thailand by October -- Realistic or Not?

[Scott]

The Thai government plans to reopen the country to tourists by October, 2021.   The plan includes the opening by phases.  In your opinion, is this a realistic plan?  

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1220790-doctors-sound-alarm-over-plan-to-reopen-borders-by-october/

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1221002-thailand-confirms-reopening-plan-from-1-july-2021/

 

[alant]

The PM assures us, that's good enough for me...

[pegman]

I think it will get worse before it gets better. Just look what's taking place in the U.K. Here in Canada we have vaccinated a higher percentage of people than anywhere except small population Malta but our ICU beds are full. 

[NanLaew]

Choice #2 is off-topic as it introduces the debate of tourist return instead of the simple yes, no, covid control and date change variables. None of the other 3 choices mention tourists so I think it should be changed from:

 

"Yes, they will reopen, but few tourists will return."

 

to

 

"Yes, it is realistic but the opening date may slide into November or December."

 

Then I would select that option.

Edited June 20, 2021 by NanLaew

[DrJack54]

15 minutes ago, pegman said:

I think it will get worse before it gets better. Just look what's taking place in the U.K. Here in Canada we have vaccinated a higher percentage of people than anywhere except small population Malta but our ICU beds are full. 

What are the popular vaccines in Canada?

[Joe Farang]

The conditions attached in the 2nd url above are a blocker for me.

I will wait until I can travel without PCR tests and additional Insurance.

Not being limited to an area or hotel for any time.

Full vaccination is the only condition I will want to meet before travelling.

[herfiehandbag]

Option 2 is, to my mind, the most likely. Pressure from the unemployment and losses caused by closure will have become intense, and the only way to release that pressure, other than by some sort of relief payments -which will not happen as it would involve spending "their money" on the "little people" - will be to allow wholesale reopening.

 

Few tourists will come - partly because even if restrictions are removed (or simply abandoned) the perception that Thailand is highly restrictive will linger for some time, and partly because economic pressures and restrictions outside Thailand will put the brakes on long haul tourism. At least re-opening will offer some hope, and allow a start on rebuilding that sector of the economy.

 

In fact I have argued elsewhere it should be started much sooner - like now!

[rudi49jr]

1 hour ago, alant said:

The PM assures us, that's good enough for me...

He promised to take care of the horrible air pollution up north and he totally did, there was no air pollution at all last winter. There is no more corruption. Traffic deaths are way down. Corona crisis is almost solved. Everybody is happy and we have him to thank for it! 

[fdsa]

opening in October - realistic

but current "opening" in July - unrealistic

[chilly07]

Attempting to open with a plan to give 1 jab only to 45m Thais will allow the Indian Wuflu mutant to infect millions. I hope it never happens! I doubt if it will because even then a vaccination rate of 375000 per day will be needed. That is providing a supply at that level can be achieved!

Edited June 20, 2021 by chilly07

[sawadee1947]

Here a new survey:

Can pigs fly? 

What I mean is it is useless to ask about any plans and dreams of this government to come true. 

They will decide what will be their benefit and secure their wealth. Fact. ????

[RichardColeman]

28 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Option 2 is, to my mind, the most likely. Pressure from the unemployment and losses caused by closure will have become intense, and the only way to release that pressure, other than by some sort of relief payments -which will not happen as it would involve spending "their money" on the "little people" - will be to allow wholesale reopening.

I agree. At some point Thailand's reliance on tourism and tourism employment will force their hand to desperation. You cannot lose 20% or your GDP and connected tax collection for much longer - especially with borrowing hugely and basing repayments on opening the economy quickly.

 

Thailand always reports a ficticious 1-2% unemployment. That number is simply not feasible with a reported 6 million jobs lost. Has to be now a minimum of 10% easy. Indeed the only thing really keeping Thailand afloat is NOT paying a decent unemployment payment !

 

My thoughts on opening are.

1. They will try with phuket - wont work, tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to hoops.

2. They will rejig it for October- but tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to still too many hoops.

3. They will try again in December - with half the hoops - but not enough will come.

4. They'll reduce hoops again January - same result.

5. As they reach 2 years of tourism devastation, their hands will be forced to open fully without hoops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[owl sees all]

The WHO area boss is a Thai. If he says 'open up' then it could be all done and dusted before January next year.

 

On the other hand, China could have a say in matters. Especially if there are problems with the poor uptake of their 'covid' jab.

[jvs]

Opening Thailand will be a nightmare!

What the government will then have to deal with is the students(and more people)

hitting the streets again.

The Covid excuse will no longer work to keep the masses seduced.

Maybe tourists will come but what will they see?

I know in the past the tourists kept coming but the world has changed forever i think.

 

[Caldera]

It depends. I'm expecting countless flip-flops along the way, on an almost daily basis.

[Thaiophil]

Within a day, the full opening in 120 days promised by the PM was modified to full opening only for provinces where 70% of the locals are vaccinated.  Since a complex web of different policies for different provinces with internal borders is unenforceable, this will eventually be modified again to islands with direct air links, ie Phuket and Samui.

 

Govt has also announced that any opening can be instantly suspended if cases tick up eg a limit of just 90 cases in Phuket.

 

This announcement has nothing to do with opening Thailand and everything to do with the govt trying to shift the headlines away from the stuttering vaccine rollout

[bbbbooboo]

Hmmm.... dreams are free

[Namtak]

As long as the ignorance of not allowing vaccinated people travel normally without quarantine these idiots will keep destroying all the businesses and people who depend on the tourism industry 

[mtls2005]

Some in the regime say the 120-day clock starts 1 July, so that puts the re-opening more or less on 1 Nov. Probably a soft-launch, with the borders slightly ajar until 1 Jan 2022?

 

 

[Emdog]

You left out a choice:

"It is realistic (they will open no matter what "reality" is), but it is unwise. The government will still be struggling with how to make money off of this pandemic."

[dinsdale]

Survey is based on a false premise. This is a psuedo democratic government run by one person. The leader of the junta. What is realistic has nothing to do with it.

[NoshowJones]

3 hours ago, rudi49jr said:

He promised to take care of the horrible air pollution up north and he totally did, there was no air pollution at all last winter. There is no more corruption. Traffic deaths are way down. Corona crisis is almost solved. Everybody is happy and we have him to thank for it! 

Send for the men in white coats. ???? ???? ???? ????

[davidcraig]

I predict that every Indian s*x tourist coming to Thailand will have proof of double vaccination and of negative Xi Pingpong WuFlu tests. I also predict that most of these proofs will be fakes, supplied by corrupt Indian doctors. So, as soon as they do open the country in October, which I believe will happen to rescue the hotels, there will be a massive increase in the Indian variant and loads of people will die.

[NoshowJones]

5 hours ago, Joe Farang said:

The conditions attached in the 2nd url above are a blocker for me.

I will wait until I can travel without PCR tests and additional Insurance.

Not being limited to an area or hotel for any time.

Full vaccination is the only condition I will want to meet before travelling.

IMO. After the borders are opened, I predict that The self elected "PM" will continue with some sort of insurance. remember, you read it here.

The days of just turning up at the airport and flying to Thailand like before the virus are finished, at least until we get a proper elected government.

Edited June 20, 2021 by possum1931

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, jvs said:

Opening Thailand will be a nightmare!

What the government will then have to deal with is the students(and more people)

hitting the streets again.

The Covid excuse will no longer work to keep the masses seduced.

Maybe tourists will come but what will they see?

I know in the past the tourists kept coming but the world has changed forever i think.

 

What part of the past are you talking about? Thailand was losing tourists in their droves before the virus came.

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, jvs said:

Opening Thailand will be a nightmare!

What the government will then have to deal with is the students(and more people)

hitting the streets again

.

The Covid excuse will no longer work to keep the masses seduced.

Maybe tourists will come but what will they see?

I know in the past the tourists kept coming but the world has changed forever i think.

 

"What the government will then have to deal with is the students(and more people)

hitting the streets again".

You have got it spot on there.

[jvs]

7 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

What part of the past are you talking about? Thailand was losing tourists in their droves before the virus came.

Talking about the past when there were also a lot of protests,no one was worried

because coups were normal for Thailand.It never really affected people who came here often.

 

 

[BusyB]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I agree. At some point Thailand's reliance on tourism and tourism employment will force their hand to desperation. You cannot lose 20% or your GDP and connected tax collection for much longer - especially with borrowing hugely and basing repayments on opening the economy quickly.

 

Thailand always reports a ficticious 1-2% unemployment. That number is simply not feasible with a reported 6 million jobs lost. Has to be now a minimum of 10% easy. Indeed the only thing really keeping Thailand afloat is NOT paying a decent unemployment payment !

 

My thoughts on opening are.

1. They will try with phuket - wont work, tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to hoops.

2. They will rejig it for October- but tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to still too many hoops.

3. They will try again in December - with half the hoops - but not enough will come.

4. They'll reduce hoops again January - same result.

5. As they reach 2 years of tourism devastation, their hands will be forced to open fully without hoops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, this is the issue ..., the hoops, and the constantly shifting goalposts.

 

I'd be more than happy to get into LOS early next year long stay. I'll be double jabbed, have the means ... but there's no way I'm booking yet.

 

I'll wait until December to see how it's playing out before I even think of booking.

[kynikoi]

I didn't like the responses so I don't vote.

 

Government can open tomorrow and why not? Two quality vaccines and let them the hell in!

 

The problem is those 8n government apparently don't understand science as well as able to make a decision. Two vax is as good as it gets.

 

You'd have to be an absolute moron to come here without a purpose family, job...if you were forced into quarantine and all that paperwork.

 

None of it will go away because it's a mafia revenue stream now. Thailand will be wearing masks and doing AQS forever. 3M insurance lol that.

 

Only a fool would bother to holiday here.

Edited June 20, 2021 by kynikoi

[Alex2554]

So far there is no reliable proof of vaccination.