Herd Immunity

[Ned Ludd]

On 7/14/2021 at 10:26 AM, richard_smith237 said:

 

Not quite true. Efficacy figures are for ‘prevention of contracting Covid-19’.

 

The biggest problem is that the world needs educating on what a virus is and how it works.

 

If you come into contact with the virus, you will contract it, vaccination or no vaccination. The efficacy rate refers to how efficient the vaccine was in helping your body's immune system suppress it.

 

Unfortunately, there is a huge portion of the population (including some TV members) who believe that once vaccinated, they are immune. Just look at the idiots in the UK now that restrictions are lifted. They seem determined to catch it and pass it on. Death wish perhaps?

[CALSinCM]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:09 PM, Kopitiam said:

Royal Navy flotilla reports Covid outbreak with 100 cases despite all sailors being vaccinated

Total fake news.  Vaccinations stop Covid 100%.  Someone must be unvaccinated and infecting all the vaccinated sailors otherwise there is no way for the vaccinated to get infected as they are vaccinated and are completely protected except from unvaccinated people who are highly contagious. 

[Kopitiam]

21 minutes ago, CALSinCM said:

Total fake news.  Vaccinations stop Covid 100%.  Someone must be unvaccinated and infecting all the vaccinated sailors otherwise there is no way for the vaccinated to get infected as they are vaccinated and are completely protected except from unvaccinated people who are highly contagious. 

British Health Secretary Sajid Javid infected after been fully vaccinated also fake news?

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/07/17/Britain-health-secretary-Sajid-Javid-tests-COVID-19-positive/2571626543584/

[richard_smith237]

11 minutes ago, CALSinCM said:

Total fake news.  Vaccinations stop Covid 100%.  Someone must be unvaccinated and infecting all the vaccinated sailors otherwise there is no way for the vaccinated to get infected as they are vaccinated and are completely protected except from unvaccinated people who are highly contagious. 

erm....   just too far off the mark to even bother with a specific response !!!.... 

 

 

Incredible...  some are saying vaccinations give 100% protection, where as others are staying even when vaccinated you still contract Covid-19 when exposed -  Both are not correct. 

 

 

In simple terms: Pfizer with a Vaccine efficacy of 95% means that 95% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 will not contract Covid-19 (I used Pfizer as the example as it is very likely this is what the British Sailors were vaccinated with).

 

i.e. In a control group  100 unvaccinated people contract Covid. In another control group under the same conditions only 5% of vaccinated people contract (and test positive for) Covid-19. 

i.e In a population of 100,000 where 1% of unvaccinated people get Covid-19 i.e. 1000 people, when everyone is vaccinated with a vaccine of 95% efficacy, just 50% would test positive for Covid-19. 

Additionally - Vaccines such as Pfizer are reported to be 100% (or very close to, so 99.999%) effective against severe symptoms and death.

 

Note: The figures are ‘Pre-Delta variant’ on which studies are on-going.

 

Under close quarter living conditions on a ship (everyone eating in the same Galley, living in bunks, communal shower rooms, working in close proximity, communal recreation rooms etc) the environment is very different from a town or a village, it is impossible to isolate and the conditions are pretty much perfect for viral transmission - It is a fair assumption that the vast majority of the ship were exposed.

 

Only 100 tested positive - the vaccine has done what it said on the tin (vial).

 

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection

 

[overherebc]

On 7/19/2021 at 4:59 PM, richard_smith237 said:

erm....   just too far off the mark to even bother with a specific response !!!.... 

 

 

Incredible...  some are saying vaccinations give 100% protection, where as others are staying even when vaccinated you still contract Covid-19 when exposed -  Both are not correct. 

 

 

In simple terms: Pfizer with a Vaccine efficacy of 95% means that 95% of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 will not contract Covid-19 (I used Pfizer as the example as it is very likely this is what the British Sailors were vaccinated with).

 

i.e. In a control group  100 unvaccinated people contract Covid. In another control group under the same conditions only 5% of vaccinated people contract (and test positive for) Covid-19. 

i.e In a population of 100,000 where 1% of unvaccinated people get Covid-19 i.e. 1000 people, when everyone is vaccinated with a vaccine of 95% efficacy, just 50% would test positive for Covid-19. 

Additionally - Vaccines such as Pfizer are reported to be 100% (or very close to, so 99.999%) effective against severe symptoms and death.

 

Note: The figures are ‘Pre-Delta variant’ on which studies are on-going.

 

Under close quarter living conditions on a ship (everyone eating in the same Galley, living in bunks, communal shower rooms, working in close proximity, communal recreation rooms etc) the environment is very different from a town or a village, it is impossible to isolate and the conditions are pretty much perfect for viral transmission - It is a fair assumption that the vast majority of the ship were exposed.

 

Only 100 tested positive - the vaccine has done what it said on the tin (vial).

 

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection

 

I agree but would re-word the blue section to say that 80% will show no symptoms or become seriously ill because their immune system will quickly kill off the virus.

Believing the virus won't do anything to you because you've  had your jabs is like saying wear your seat belt and you won't have any more accidents.

[JetsetBkk]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:34 PM, BE88 said:

This information is kept secret and undisclosed.

And yet, you know about it.

[hansgruber]

I've had covid twice. I have it right now and I don't feel a thing. No sniffles, no cough or fever. 

Sitting in state quarantine wondering what this is all about. 

 

Will having covid twice make me get the vaccine? No. 

We can live with this as it's not even as bad as the flu when infected. 

[Denim]

10 minutes ago, hansgruber said:

We can live with this as it's not even as bad as the flu when infected. 

Maybe for you but fatal to others.

[atpeace]

On 7/19/2021 at 3:38 PM, Ned Ludd said:

The biggest problem is that the world needs educating on what a virus is and how it works.

 

If you come into contact with the virus, you will contract it, vaccination or no vaccination. The efficacy rate refers to how efficient the vaccine was in helping your body's immune system suppress it.

 

 

Unfortunately, there is a huge portion of the population (including some TV members) who believe that once vaccinated, they are immune. Just look at the idiots in the UK now that restrictions are lifted. They seem determined to catch it and pass it on. Death wish perhaps?

I'm all for vaccination but you are changing the narrative.  This is why people don't believe the vaccination crowd.  Efficacy not only refers to preventing death.  Have no clue where you came to this conclusion.

 

Reality is the vaccine does prevent infection and most importantly almost eliminates the possibility of death after the second jab.

 

Why to get vaccinated:

11111. It eliminates statistically the likelihood of death after full vaccination.  Me thinks this is important.

2.  Greatly reduces (~50-80% ) the odds of getting the virus and the future variants.  

 

Get the frickken shot is my advice.  I dislike anyone telling me what to do and see why some are disregarding the health of others and are making a stand.  Wish they wouldn't but it is their choice and not 100% sure they are wrong.  I'm kinda of an odds/statistics guy and it seems to me that vaccination is the right thing to do to help others.  My healthy 83 yo Mom with pre-exiting minor lung issues just got her first jab( getting closer to not worrying ).  As for personal fear of dying - zero fear!

 

As much as I can be a selfish jerk at times, in this instance I have decided to help others.  Too many are not as healthy as me and might die.

 

 

 

[JetsetBkk]

1 hour ago, atpeace said:

2.  Greatly reduces (~50-80% ) the odds of getting the virus and the future variants. 

"getting the virus" ??  

[Kopitiam]

5 hours ago, atpeace said:

I'm all for vaccination but you are changing the narrative.  This is why people don't believe the vaccination crowd.  Efficacy not only refers to preventing death.  Have no clue where you came to this conclusion.

 

Reality is the vaccine does prevent infection and most importantly almost eliminates the possibility of death after the second jab.

 

Why to get vaccinated:

11111. It eliminates statistically the likelihood of death after full vaccination.  Me thinks this is important.

2.  Greatly reduces (~50-80% ) the odds of getting the virus and the future variants.  

 

Get the frickken shot is my advice.  I dislike anyone telling me what to do and see why some are disregarding the health of others and are making a stand.  Wish they wouldn't but it is their choice and not 100% sure they are wrong.  I'm kinda of an odds/statistics guy and it seems to me that vaccination is the right thing to do to help others.  My healthy 83 yo Mom with pre-exiting minor lung issues just got her first jab( getting closer to not worrying ).  As for personal fear of dying - zero fear!

 

As much as I can be a selfish jerk at times, in this instance I have decided to help others.  Too many are not as healthy as me and might die.

 

 

 

As for personal fear of dying - zero fear!

You can still die from the COVID-19 virus even fully vaccinated.

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/100-fully-vaccinated-people-have-died-covid-19-massachusetts-3265847

[sallecc]

6 hours ago, hansgruber said:

I've had covid twice. I have it right now and I don't feel a thing. No sniffles, no cough or fever. 

Sitting in state quarantine wondering what this is all about. 

 

Will having covid twice make me get the vaccine? No. 

We can live with this as it's not even as bad as the flu when infected. 

Some others weren't lucky as you. My cousin's 6 years old daughter died from Covid, same as half dozen others I knew.

[KarenBravo]

On 7/18/2021 at 12:38 AM, boogiewoogie said:

Yeah, all 3200 were exposed to virus. Keep dreaming mate. 

Probably, they were.

I've worked on ships all my life and once one crew member gets a cold, everyone else gets one, too. Usually, from contact with an infected person, or more likely the central air-conditioning.

[atpeace]

10 hours ago, JetsetBkk said:

"getting the virus" ??  

?

[atpeace]

6 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

As for personal fear of dying - zero fear!

You can still die from the COVID-19 virus even fully vaccinated.

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/100-fully-vaccinated-people-have-died-covid-19-massachusetts-3265847

What are the odd of a fully vaccinated healthy male under 55 yo?  Probably less than dying of hypothermia in a jacuzzi. 

[MrJ2U]

Herd immunity isn't really possible when vaccinated people can spread the virus.

 

"Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine. If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal, a mathematical biologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC. 

[Neeranam]

On 7/14/2021 at 4:09 PM, Kopitiam said:

Royal Navy flotilla reports Covid outbreak with 100 cases despite all sailors being vaccinated

What's it got to do with Thailand?

[DrDave]

4 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

Herd immunity isn't really possible when vaccinated people can spread the virus.

 

"Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine. If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal, a mathematical biologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC. 

Or.... without a vaccine (as in the animal kingdom), the virus propagates through the entire population. Those that are able (the vast majority), generate the necessary antigens naturally. Those that can't don't. That's the harsh reality, but the end result is herd immunity.

[JetsetBkk]

57 minutes ago, atpeace said:

11 hours ago, JetsetBkk said:

"getting the virus" ??  

?

I don't think being vaccinated stops you "getting" the virus (i.e. becoming infected with the virus), but it does stop you suffering from the worst outcomes.

After all, vaccinated people can spread it to others. 

 

[MrJ2U]

35 minutes ago, DrDave said:

Or.... without a vaccine (as in the animal kingdom), the virus propagates through the entire population. Those that are able (the vast majority), generate the necessary antigens naturally. Those that can't don't. That's the harsh reality, but the end result is herd immunity.

Hard to say with this particular virus.  It changes so fast.  In some aspects it's becoming a completely different virus every few months.  

 

You think of the Poliovirus.  We're still using basically the same vaccine invented in the 1950's to treat it.

 

 

 

[Kopitiam]

2 hours ago, atpeace said:

What are the odd of a fully vaccinated healthy male under 55 yo?  Probably less than dying of hypothermia in a jacuzzi. 

I was just stating a fact.

[atpeace]

8 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

I was just stating a fact.

We both are stating facts and from different angles.  Good place to start IMO.  You feel younger healthy, and fully vaccinated individuals should be concerned which may be true. I wouuld have no fear personally of death at after my second shot.

 

Very rare for healthy individuals to die after vaccination.  Of the 100 people that died in the article, how many had Covid prior to first shot?  How many became infected between the 1st shot and 4 weeks after 2nd before max protection is realized.  Basically a 2 month window where risks are much higher.  Lastly how many were under 55 and very healthy like myself?

 

I get your point.  Think there is more to the story and especially if in regards to my specific situation.

[atpeace]

11 hours ago, Neeranam said:

What's it got to do with Thailand?

Interesting and not good.  Source?  If people had the virus on a a ship prior to vaccination then these individuals would not be protected and the vaccine does little for days to weeks.  It does not reach it full potential for  months after the first shot.  A ship is not a real world comparison but interesting nonetheless.  My bet is a few people had the virus prior to first shot and for the next 2 months the virus spread easily through the ship but really don't have a clue.

[atpeace]

11 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

Herd immunity isn't really possible when vaccinated people can spread the virus.

 

"Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine. If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal, a mathematical biologist at Georgetown University in Washington DC. 

Is that the quote? The quote validates the opposite of your premise or maybe you are quoting someone with different views than yourself?

[MrJ2U]

38 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Is that the quote? The quote validates the opposite of your premise or maybe you are quoting someone with different views than yourself?

I'm saying herd immunity is unachievable when you can transmit the disease after being vaccinated as is the case with current vaccinations.

 

The quoted news source just endorses my opinion.

[Dart12]

On 7/19/2021 at 4:25 PM, CALSinCM said:

Total fake news.  Vaccinations stop Covid 100%.  Someone must be unvaccinated and infecting all the vaccinated sailors otherwise there is no way for the vaccinated to get infected as they are vaccinated and are completely protected except from unvaccinated people who are highly contagious. 

yep. unvaxxed makes the vaccinated vaccine worthless.

[Dart12]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:04 AM, Denim said:

Maybe for you but fatal to others.

>99% are like him.   The only better number left would mean we are immortal.

[atpeace]

10 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

I'm saying herd immunity is unachievable when you can transmit the disease after being vaccinated as is the case with current vaccinations.

 

The quoted news source just endorses my opinion.

The doc isn't saying what you think he is indorsing.  Below is the the quote you provided.

"If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal"

 

He/she is saying we don't have a 100% blocking vaccine.  Hence the need to get everybody vaccinated to reach herd immunity.  A virus can still spread but if the capacity to spread is greatly reduced, herd immunity will most likely be the end result.

 

Anyhow, that is how I interpret the snippet you provided. Off to google the good doctor and see if I'm correct. Cheers

[atpeace]

14 minutes ago, atpeace said:

The doc isn't saying what you think he is indorsing.  Below is the the quote you provided.

"If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal"

 

He/she is saying we don't have a 100% blocking vaccine.  Hence the need to get everybody vaccinated to reach herd immunity.  A virus can still spread but if the capacity to spread is greatly reduced, herd immunity will most likely be the end result.

 

Anyhow, that is how I interpret the snippet you provided. Off to google the good doctor and see if I'm correct. Cheers

Found the article and quote after a long search.  The doctor is simply discussing herd immunity with other doctors and the difficulties of reaching this threshold.  She never states that a vaccine has to be 100% effective for herd immunity.  A high efficacy is needed and she feels the current vaccines show potential.  My take - herd immunity is unlikely with Covid and this virus will be with us for a long time.

 

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2 

Quote:     Paragraph 6.

[MrJ2U]

35 minutes ago, atpeace said:

The doc isn't saying what you think he is indorsing.  Below is the the quote you provided.

"If we don’t, then the only way to get herd immunity in the population is to give everyone the vaccine,” says Shweta Bansal"

 

He/she is saying we don't have a 100% blocking vaccine.  Hence the need to get everybody vaccinated to reach herd immunity.  A virus can still spread but if the capacity to spread is greatly reduced, herd immunity will most likely be the end result.

 

Anyhow, that is how I interpret the snippet you provided. Off to google the good doctor and see if I'm correct. Cheers

Sounds good.

 

Hopefully the next generation of vacs will help more.