COVID cases may drop in 2 weeks with extended semi-lockdown, mass vaccinations – MoPH

[jerrymahoney]

 

10 minutes ago, smedly said:

yes your hero Prayut is doing a stellar job, name one thing he has done right

This page was last updated on Monday, August 2, 2021 at 06:00 AM EDT.

 

Mortality in the most affected countries
For the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide, the bars in the chart below show the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio) or per 100,000 population (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people). Countries at the top of this figure have the most deaths proportionally to their COVID-19 cases or population, not necessarily the most deaths overall

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

 

[sezze]

I still see posts arise about the mortality numbers . While i never said they were insignificant , they are bad , but it isn't the deaths you should be looking at . You look at hospitals which are full , people who do survive , but after long treatment . People who do not get the care they need , because the hospitals are full . People who got long covid , and have months , years or life of problems because of covid . Mortality of covid is not very high , although 10 times more then flu ( lets just say equal to flu ) , but flu does not make the same other damage . This amount of people affected by it is way way higher then the death toll , and also hits a lot of younger people also ( which do have very low mortality rate from covid ) .

[herfiehandbag]

8 hours ago, Neeranam said:

My Mor Prom app says 14 million received first jab already and 196,000 jabbed today. 

 

We should be congratulating the govt., instead of criticising them at any chance.

 

Where I live, I can't register with a government hospital, yet foreigners can now. Where are all the 'foreigner are discriminated against brigade" now? 

Going from registration location to registration location being turned away because they are foreigners, or hunched over various dysfunctional computer of websites similarly being turned away.

 

It is a simple fact that over vast swathes of the country foreigners are being refused vaccination, or even the opportunity to be vaccinated, because they are foreigners.

 

The point is, that I and most of the "brigade" you pour scorn on are not asking for privileged treatment, that would be entirely wrong; we are asking for what has been repeatedly promised, that we will be treated the same as everyone else. In very very many cases this is (often  repeatedly) not happening.

Edited August 3, 2021 by herfiehandbag

[Danderman123]

If they keep on predicting that cases are going to drop, they will be right someday.

[jerrymahoney]

1 hour ago, sezze said:

I still see posts arise about the mortality numbers . While i never said they were insignificant , they are bad , but it isn't the deaths you should be looking at . <snip>

The Johns Hopkins mortality chart posted shows how Thailand fares versus other countries. While the PM maybe cannot take credit for Thailand's position, if Thailand were near the top of the chart, I presume some on here would have no problem assigning him the blame.

[Scrotobike]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

You seriously think 2.5 million jabs in 2 weeks (based in your 196k) will make much difference ? And the majority of those first jabs are potentially 3% sinovac efficacy ! I think 2 weeks  either they will be exactly where they are now , or slightly less cases due to lockdowns - not vaccinations. 2 weeks is too short to judge anything

 

 

I agree - even if the number of jabs can be described as good (but I think not in my opinion) then the allocations of vaccines to date is a clusterFK. To lower the death rate vaccinate the old and sick first instead of diverting to the sandbox, HiSo factories.

 

Also the SEMI lockdown is just that. I am straining to think of another country having a lockdown by name only - a lock down means stay at home all day except for food/medical trips, close the factories, cancel the lottery (ohh) etc.

 

I fail to see how the situation will get better in the short term unless all the old and sick are vaccinated as soon as possible. If this is completed 100% with both jabs then I guess August vaccinations will not be enough to cover the remaining old/sick.

 

Sorry for the rant!

[DrJack54]

10 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

If this is completed 100% with both jabs then I guess August vaccinations will not be enough to cover the remaining old/sick.

You are aware of the time gap between the two jabs of AZ vaccine.

That's here in Thailand 12 weeks.

So as one example....I had my first jab last week so my second jab will be Oct 19. Then allow couple of weeks.

So all up end of October fully vaccinated.

 

[Scrotobike]

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

You are aware of the time gap between the two jabs of AZ vaccine.

That's here in Thailand 12 weeks.

So as one example....I had my first jab last week so my second jab will be Oct 19. Then allow couple of weeks.

So all up end of October fully vaccinated.

 

I 100% agree. I feel the old/sick are still not a priority. I know of one person who has had nil jabs so far!

[rott]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought you had a British passport which would put you as a foreigner. Or does it only work when it suits you.

Yes, I think we must be told. 

[rott]

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought you had a British passport which would put you as a foreigner. Or does it only work when it suits you.

Yes, I think we must be told. 

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

with delta high risk is anyone over 10 years old - try and keep up

Had an image from a friend in Oz recently....listing people in ICU in NSW.... mostly non vaccinated, but spread well across the age groupings and not predominantly elder. 

[pseudorabies]

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

How is the effectiveness going to be increased with relaxation of some of the restrictions while failing to ensure the current ones including travel are not enforced.  These folks seem to believe in miracles.

Here in Hua Hin I was amazed to see people from Bangkok flooding in over the past few weekends. Mostly in BMW's, MB's, and Porsche's.  In my condo I'd see an influx of cars from BK in the parking garage, new faces at the pool.  Over at the Holiday Inn the hotel would be dark from Monday through Thursday then fully lit up on the weekends, including the rooftop restaurant and bar, with many rooms occupied.  Absolutely amazing.  Now Prachuap Khiri Khan is considered a dark red zone.  It was probably inevitable but accelerated by this bad behavior and lack of enforcement.  Given the glacial rollout of vaccines why help speed the spread of the virus?

[Neeranam]

5 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought you had a British passport which would put you as a foreigner. Or does it only work when it suits you.

It's illegal for me to use my British passport in Thailand. 

[ArcticFox]

12 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

It would be better that all the people and so called doctors who tell this kind of stories will be fired if the situation will not improve or worsens. Than we can get rid of TAT fairy tales too and many more.  

Those who control the numbers can make accurate predictions.  It's not rocket science.

[Laughing Gravy]

15 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

It's illegal for me to use my British passport in Thailand. 

Only last week I mentioned it was technically illegal and you said I didn't know what I was stalking about .

[Neeranam]

1 minute ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Only last week I mentioned it was technically illegal and you said I didn't know what I was stalking about .

No, you said dual citizenship was illegal. ????

[Laughing Gravy]

23 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

No, you said dual citizenship was illegal. ????

You obviously didn't understand what my meaning about the situation was about.

 

[Neeranam]

16 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You obviously didn't understand what my meaning about the situation was about.

 

Well please explain, this is what you wrote, which is not true.

Quote

Maybe it is time as you said a few days ago to hand in your British citizenship. Here is the address below. After all you have a Thai one which technically is illegal.

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Neeranam

[Laughing Gravy]

15 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

We please explain to me, here is what you wrote.

 

I thought you could have worked that out but I guess not. So you have two passports one Thai and one British. So you can't use both. Hence technically illegal to have both in Thailand to be used as a joint Citizenship.

[rabas]

5 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

 

This page was last updated on Monday, August 2, 2021 at 06:00 AM EDT.

 

Mortality in the most affected countries
For the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide, the bars in the chart below show the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio) or per 100,000 population (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people). Countries at the top of this figure have the most deaths proportionally to their COVID-19 cases or population, not necessarily the most deaths overall

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

 

It's not clear what view the graph supports.

 

That Thailand is in the top twenty affected nations (#9 yesterday), or has a low case fatality rate. The CFR for Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia are really closer to India. The current number is artificially low because all three are experiencing exponentially sharp rises due to Delta. Many of those hospitalized with eventually die and be added. Look up 'closed case fatality rate'.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The chart posted above was for CUMULATIVE deaths back to the beginning of the pandemic, including the one-year plus where Thailand had very little activity. That's why Thailand looks good in those kinds of comparisons.

 

If you look at comparisons for the present, not so good.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The chart posted above was for CUMULATIVE deaths back to the beginning of the pandemic, including the one-year plus where Thailand had very little activity. That's why Thailand looks good in those kinds of comparisons.

 

If you look at comparisons for the present, not so good.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

Based upon this graph that @TallGuyJohninBKK has posted, it makes the OP I will link and statements that the PM made very incorrect and shows how this government is trying to hide in the grey zone between totality and reality.  The statement is: "Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Thursday (Jul 29) downplayed the COVID-19 situation Thailand, while claiming that other nations are dealing with higher caseloads"

 

To me the man is trying in vain to hold onto the reigns of a country that he and others have led down the slippery path to the steep abyss below and have doomed it to become a failed State

 

The OP I spoke of is here.:

 

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought you could have worked that out but I guess not. So you have two passports one Thai and one British. So you can't use both. Hence technically illegal to have both in Thailand to be used as a joint Citizenship.

I know exactly what you meant, that dual citizenship is illegal. Yet, rather than admit your error, you try to belittle me. It speaks volumes about you. 

 

[Laughing Gravy]

9 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

you try to belittle me.

You do that all on your own.

 

I guess your understanding of the term technically isn't fully comprehensible. Anyway time to move on.

[jerrymahoney]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

It's not clear what view the graph supports.

The reply was to a query to tell us one good thing the PM has done. For the rest, tell it to Johns Hopkins. 

Edited August 3, 2021 by jerrymahoney

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

37 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Based upon this graph that @TallGuyJohninBKK has posted, it makes the OP I will link and statements that the PM made very incorrect and shows how this government is trying to hide in the grey zone between totality and reality.  The statement is: "Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Thursday (Jul 29) downplayed the COVID-19 situation Thailand, while claiming that other nations are dealing with higher caseloads"

 

To me the man is trying in vain to hold onto the reigns of a country that he and others have led down the slippery path to the steep abyss below and have doomed it to become a failed State

 

The OP I spoke of is here.:

 

 

It all depends on what numbers you look at, and what you compare them with...

 

This is what the MoPH included in their daily briefing yesterday.

 

 

If you look in cumulative terms, Thailand looks pretty good compared to many other countries.

 

If you look in current terms, of what's going on right now, Thailand doesn't look so good.

 

 

 

 

 

[trainman34014]

Ah; another 'Thailand Expects' post !

[buick]

not trying to joke about the situation, just using an analogy some are familiar with.  i think we are getting close to the peak, which means this 2 week forecast might be about right.  my analogy is the buy the bottom on the stock market crashes (not buy the dip, i'm talking major corrections 20% or more).  when things look really bad it is time to buy.  everyone knows its bad.  everyone is watching it everyday, hour by hour.  then, it is time to start buying.  so in this case, i'm starting to 'go long' on this market.  dip the toe in with buys over the next 10 days and see what happens by end of august.  are we lower or higher than today on cases.  then measure the deaths mid september since they lag a bit.

 

this delta moves so fast i'm guessing it will get everyone before the vaccines can do anything about it.  it'll be naturally immunity that knocks it down.

 

[Boedog]

Under control in the next 2 weeks, well thank Buddha for that just in the nick of time for Grandmaster Prayut,s grand re-opening plan how lucky is that

[Almer]

I am not a great lover of a quote that reads (may) i would far prefer to read expected or the signs  or data show us, i know it is all a load of hot air bur some may believe.