New Year Spending Hits 12-Year-Low Due to Omicron Fears

[Jonathan Fairfield]

 

The rebounding economy, further stimulated by the holiday season, is now facing a major threat amid the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant.

 

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said holiday spending this year is now projected to drop to a 12-year low as fears grow over the new strain.

 

The UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (UTCC-CEBF) released its economic projections for the 2022 New Year holiday season, anticipating spending to be the lowest in 12 years. From a survey of 1,244 people, the center estimates overall cash flow to be around 85.8 billion baht. Average per-person spending is expected to be 3,300 baht, which is lower than last year’s figure at 5,900 baht.

 

The center also projects lower religious spending, while the tourism sector is likely to take another hit from mass cancellations, with average per-person tourism spending at the all-time low of 5,440 baht.

 

UTCC President Thanawat Polvichai said fears over the Omicron variant are expected to wipe 30-50 billion baht from the holiday season spending. Additionally, this figure could slide by 5-10 billion baht due to possible nationwide cancellations of New Year events.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2021-12-26

 

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[Geoffggi]

What about the fact that everywhere has been shut down especially within the entertainment sector resulting in massive unemployment therefore reduced spending power ....

[Gsxrnz]

A 12 year low for domestic spending by Thais, probably a 50 year low when you deduct non-spending by tourists.

[StayinThailand2much]

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

[ezzra]

Stating the obvious here.. i'd be utterly gob smacked had the economy would be roaring along like in the good ol' days. there's a long, long road ahead of us before we see the economy bouncing back and the government isn't helping either...

[worgeordie]

Yesterday I went to a Lotus's , a former Tesco's , I had not been

there for a few months , and was shocked and surprised , lots

of the small shops in the carpark area and inside had given up, also

2 large book stores ,Black Canyon , gone ,not looking good for

the Thai retail sector , and it's not over by far. This was in Chiang Mai ,

same happening in your areas ? 

 

regards Worgeordie 

[law ling]

3 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Interesting point.

 

The locals do like bigger items: a new phone or motor bike or gold.

 

Living a modest farang life here, yes, it's rare to have to spend big (except this year the dentists have done well from me).

 

[Daithi85]

5 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Strange comment  ????

[Neeranam]

10 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Many things. 

[ThailandRyan]

30 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

High End bags, rings for the wife/GF, as well as clothes can be bought.  Spent Plenty for my Family this year.

[Neeranam]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

High End bags, rings for the wife/GF, as well as clothes can be bought.  Spent Plenty for my Family this year.

I spent a bloody fortune last week, 100k + alone yesterday. Longines, J'Adore, Adidas, Nike, Johnny Walker, etc all add up.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I spent a bloody fortune last week, 100k + alone yesterday. Longines, J'Adore, Adidas, Nike, Johnny Walker, etc all add up.

Yes, I did the same with Gucci, etc...

[StayinThailand2much]

36 minutes ago, law ling said:

Interesting point.

 

The locals do like bigger items: a new phone or motor bike or gold.

 

Living a modest farang life here, yes, it's rare to have to spend big (except this year the dentists have done well from me).

 

I spend most on holidays and food. Hoping to be able to spend more for holidays in 2022.

[Gsxrnz]

26 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Yesterday I went to a Lotus's , a former Tesco's , I had not been

there for a few months , and was shocked and surprised , lots

of the small shops in the carpark area and inside had given up, also

2 large book stores ,Black Canyon , gone ,not looking good for

the Thai retail sector , and it's not over by far. This was in Chiang Mai ,

same happening in your areas ? 

 

regards Worgeordie 

Same happening in Pattaya.  The government for years have under estimated the trickle down effect of tourist spending. They are too xenophobic to admit that although they begrudgingly have stated it may be "up to 20%", in reality they knew it was more like 30-40%.  

 

If you count the multiple times every dollar sourced from overseas passes through a Thais hand, the trickle down effect is huge.  That means that while the immediate impact can be seen and felt in the businesses dealing directly in accommodation and hospitality, the wages and profits that would otherwise be sourced from these industries have dried up and cash is not for discretionary purchases.

 

The discretionary spending of the bottom 50% of Thais has disappeared.  Whatever money they have is spent on basic survival and to some extent the food supply and necessity spending of Thais lays within it's own circular economy and the same limited money supply circulates within it.  That closed economy does not include medium retail or anything remotely related to discretionary spending.

 

The one exception being phone shops.

[Neeranam]

43 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

same happening in your areas ? 

Used to see many sun-baked foreigners in Tesco, often wearing a Chang singlet, with Baan Nok Thais in tow throwing anything they want into his trolley. This breed has largely become extinct, much to the dismay of the Buriram Nois. 

[ThailandRyan]

When I lived in the North of Udon Thani, you could always tell when the Foreign BF's arrived for the vacation.  I would see them in at Tesco or Big C with the entire Family in tow and trolleys being loaded with f,,,all.  Then in the village the continued construction would continue on the houses etc.....Once the Foreigner left the family would sit back and enjoy until nothing was left and the construction would stop.  So many unfinished structures still in my old Village.

[Gsxrnz]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Used to see many sun-baked foreigners in Tesco, often wearing a Chang singlet, with Baan Nok Thais in tow throwing anything they want into his trolley. This breed has largely become extinct, much to the dismay of the Buriram Nois. 

Seriously, I don't think referring to the Chang singlet wearing sun-baked foreigners gives us the overall image of the true breed. 

 

I think we need clarification as to the size of their beer belly, their relative level of baldness, and if their knuckles did or did not drag on the ground.  

[Ralf001]

1 hour ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Ive been giving Lazada a work out.

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Gsxrnz said:

Seriously, I don't think referring to the Chang singlet wearing sun-baked foreigners gives us the overall image of the true breed. 

 

I think we need clarification as to the size of their beer belly, their relative level of baldness, and if their knuckles did or did not drag on the ground.  

How many egg stains on the singlet as well would indicate his prosperity and wealth....

[Neeranam]

5 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Seriously, I don't think referring to the Chang singlet wearing sun-baked foreigners gives us the overall image of the true breed. 

 

I think we need clarification as to the size of their beer belly, their relative level of baldness, and if their knuckles did or did not drag on the ground.  

Also the loudness of their native call of "mai mee, sanook, poom pui, tee rak, and boom boom". 

[Gsxrnz]

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

How many egg stains on the singlet as well would indicate his prosperity and wealth....

 

Well, I was assuming the singlet was automatically stained.  To this day I've never yet seen anybody wearing a Chang or Singha t-shirt that wasn't stained.

[Gsxrnz]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Also the loudness of their native call of "mai mee, sanook, poom pui, tee rak, and boom boom". 

Try saying all that with the broadest Liverpool accent you can imagine.  I know that bloke.

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Nothing the wife would let me buy or borrow for the night

[smedly]

and what was so special about 2010 .............................................. better not mention that one 

 

 

 

Right now unlike in the west were governments have spent huge sums on supporting workers and employers  and where highly expensive welfare systems exist - Thailand has no such thing - there have been plenty of approved emergency budgets with no evidence of what it was spent on (I have my own thoughts on where most of it went), the bottom line is that household debt is huge and Thais are on the brink which equals lack of consumer spending and without a massive influx of foreign tourists it will continue, I actually do not believe Thailand can recover from this - they could try increasing taxes etc but all that does is drive the poverty level higher - IMO  Thailand is up the creek without a paddle and the signs are just stating to show  

[spidermike007]

The correct title to the article would have been New Year spending is way down due to the Pratin sabotage and economic devastation caused by cowards. 

[bradiston]

Don't quite understand the link between "fear of Omicron" and hanging on to your cash. If they/we really were afraid of Omicron, and a subsequent lockdown, they/we'd be out spending on essentials, surely? Anyone panic buying round here yet?

 

What's the UTCC-CEBF's record on forecasting trends in the economy anyway? Come to think of it, anyone scared of Omicron? Truth is, people have more sense than to spend their savings on Christmas rubbish, and prefer to keep it for essentials.

 

Just another deflective "report" hiding the fact nobody's got anything to spend much in any case, except revolting tourists in Pattaya.

[jacko45k]

6 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

A new truck.... apparently sales are strong.

[Jumbo1968]

8 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Even if people had money and wanted to spend, what can you spend it on in Thailand?

Wine well beer, woman’s and song !

[alien365]

If those figures are for the week ahead it looks like I'll be well below average. New year is just meh, during these times. Spent a fortune over Christmas though. 

[Jumbo1968]

I was on Koh Larn Friday/Saturday, we stayed in the hotel on Samae Beach, Friday the beach was deserted as was the restaurants in the evening. Saturday more on the beach but again out of the 5/6 restaurants only a couple of people in each some even empty on the night. How these business owners are managing to pay rent etc is beyond not unless they accumulated money over the previous years and are living of that hoping the good times will come back.