Which country’s COVID policy is the best model for Thailand?

[Bkk Brian]

21 hours ago, KhunLA said:

No argument here.  At 1-200 tourist arriving infected everyday, it's a money maker.

 

 

Thailand classifies testing positive on arrival up to day 10.  Omicron has a much shorter incubation period than other variants, typically just 3 days and the majority of arrivals coming through the test and go entry test positive on the 5th day. Take Hau Hin for example. 7 tested positive on the first day but 96 tested positive on the 5th day.

https://www.huahintoday.com/hua-hin-news/feb-10-prachuap-reports-208-new-covid-19-cases-29-cases-in-hua-hin/

[Marvest]

On 2/11/2022 at 8:54 PM, KhunLA said:

...as I remember people tested positive 11th day of quarantine

People or a person?  While this could be true, I doubt if very many people tested positive on the 11th day of quarantine.  Before virologists were able to determine incubation periods of Coronavirus, 14 days was a common quarantine period because most viruses incubate (earliest possible exposure to onset of symptoms) within that period.  Delta's average incubation period was about four days.  Omicron is faster, about 73 hours.  I agree that it is 'possible' (while unlikely) to test positive on the 14th day after exposure.  The fifth day will reasonably find the vast majority of cases.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Marvest

[rickudon]

I did look up the excess death rate in Thailand and compared it to the UK. In 2020, as you might expect, Thailand's excess death rate was pretty much zero except in December. 2021 was rather different. Between March 2021 and January 2022 Thailand's excess death rate was higher than the UK in 9 out of the 11 months....... this has certainly NOT been reflected in the reported Covid-19 deaths. In other words, Thailand has contrived to under-report Covid-19 deaths. Deliberately? Or just has managed to set-up a system where they are 'overlooked'?

 

The real covid-19 death rate is probably 2-3 times the reported figure.

[Trvlr55]

On 2/11/2022 at 11:06 AM, Marvest said:

England may be a good model for you and the English, but Thais may not be as accepting of a death rate of over 2000/million.

those numbers are for the total pandemic. the new variant has changed everything. is of little use to quote 2 years stats, need to look at the current vaccination status, and the fact anyone in Thailand that wants a vaccine shot can get one, and the very very low hospitalization and death rate attributed to this new variant. The only people getting seriously ill are the unvax'd and those with severe underlying conditions. To continue to be stuck in the mind-set of pre-vaccine shots/pre-omicron is rather pointless.

[Trvlr55]

Cambodia: They stopped giving useless "tested positive" stats a while back.

now they report hospitalizations and death rates ONLY

 

This is the best way to move forward, and do as they have been saying they want to work towards. i.e. Covid is endemic, serious illness and death rate declining, Infection rate, especially here where the testing is rather erratic and people have to pay for PCR tests have never been of any real use. They also use a higher cycle rate that is recommended by the WHO, which just in itself leads to a high false positive rate. Thought I read that the Covid pill was recently approved, and another step in the right direction to end these useless shutdowns and restrictions. World-wide they have never stopped one new variant from spreading, and little to no effect on population infection rates.

[ozimoron]

16 minutes ago, Trvlr55 said:

Cambodia: They stopped giving useless "tested positive" stats a while back.

now they report hospitalizations and death rates ONLY

 

This is the best way to move forward, and do as they have been saying they want to work towards. i.e. Covid is endemic, serious illness and death rate declining, Infection rate, especially here where the testing is rather erratic and people have to pay for PCR tests have never been of any real use. They also use a higher cycle rate that is recommended by the WHO, which just in itself leads to a high false positive rate. Thought I read that the Covid pill was recently approved, and another step in the right direction to end these useless shutdowns and restrictions. World-wide they have never stopped one new variant from spreading, and little to no effect on population infection rates.

Cambodia has one of the highest vaccination rates in SEA at 82% fully vaccinated.

[BangkokReady]

On 2/11/2022 at 3:16 PM, micmichd said:

Comparing the number of cases and fatalities in the UK to those in Thailand, I would rather recommend Thailand as a model for England (not vice versa) 

I agree.  Make England a tropical country at once!!!

[BangkokReady]

On 2/11/2022 at 12:55 PM, Marvest said:

Hypothetically, advanced countries will have better treatment for COVID and the ratio of deaths to cases will be lower.  But 'excess deaths' is a very good (best?) metric.

Realistically, many developing countries have a younger population and a weather system and culture that has given them many advantages over wealthier but colder countries in fighting covid.

[BangkokReady]

On 2/11/2022 at 11:27 PM, KhunLA said:

Done everything correct, except reopening, was their only mistake.

Vaccine procurement and rollout?