Are we now feeling the effects of Ukraine's situation in Asia?

[webfact]

Latest reports state that Putin’s troops have been ordered to perform what is loosely described as “peacekeeping functions” in Lubansk and Donetsk raising fears troops could soon cross the border.

 

If Putin’s Red army attacks, the impending hostilities could represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.
 
So, what are your concerns/predictions about the impact on our lives here as expats in Asia, if the conflict worsens?

 

Financial Impact

Initially one would expect the world stock markets will take a hit, so any invested in a retirement plan may see funds reduced.

For example, concerns on the Ukraine-Russia tension and higher average domestic inflation projection for this and next year have already resulted in the upticks of Treasury bill (T-bill) rates in the Philippines this week. 

Global crude prices dropped marginally as news of fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis soothed some concerns oversupply.

However, as we have already seen, Oil and Gas prices have risen and therefore could go higher along with electricity.

 

In Vietnam, gas prices reached a historic peak this week, and in some cases, supplies were limited.

 

There could also be some blockades, meaning shipping will burn more expensive fuel to get to Asia, resulting in food shortages and rises even further!
 
If a war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, China will tighten its grip on South Asia Pacific, and Taiwan. Then the Philippines will have to choose a side!

 

Needs a close watch by Thailand

Sanan Angubolkul, chairperson of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the conflict brewing in Eastern Europe requires a close watch by Thailand. 

A bad situation could worsen if the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine leads to fighting, said Mr Sanan.

"The global oil price continues to rise, affecting the costs of energy and logistics in the global supply chain system. This also affects Thailand, as indicated by the rising prices of goods and services," said Mr Sanan.

 

Thai petrol prices

The dispute is a "warning sign" the global and Thai economies may plunge into trouble if the US, UK, and EU decide to impose economic sanctions on Russia if it invades Ukraine, said Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairperson of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).

"Trade between Thailand and Russia, especially for food and farm produce, would certainly be affected by such sanctions." Mongkolsuthree added.

Thai Russian Exports

In 2021, Thailand's exports to Russia tallied US$1.02 billion, accounting for 0.4% of the country's total export value. 
Key export products included tractors, rubber, rubber-made products, machinery and parts, electrical appliances and parts, and plastic.

Meanwhile Thai shipments to Ukraine totalled only $135 million, representing 0.05% of the country's total exports. Key exports included tractors, rubber and rubber-made products, plant-based seasonings, machinery, and parts.

Air travel disruptions
Apart from these economic issues, it is several flight routes would need to be changed as flying over Russia and Ukraine airspace will be a definite no-no.

 

This is likely to not only add to everyone’s travel times but is also likely to see fare increases to cover additional fuel costs.

 

The tensions would also affect exchange rates, plus travel and tourism.

What are your thoughts? Perhaps you feel it is just too far away to be of major concern.

 

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[Jingthing]

The elephant in the room is if China decides to play copycat with Taiwan. The U.S. won't/can't get directly involved in Ukraine but arguably has an obligation to defend Taiwan. This has the makings of a potential WW3. Obviously hopefully not.

[Soikhaonoiken]

As the EU & USA started to impose sanctions on Russia, this will start to affect tourists from the block visiting Thailand and mainly Phuket 

[garyk]

You retiree's better set aside some funds for a rapid departure.

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The elephant in the room is if China decides to play copycat with Taiwan. The U.S. won't/can't get directly involved in Ukraine but arguably has an obligation to defend Taiwan. This has the makings of a potential WW3. Obviously hopefully not.

I think you are right, China play a big part in what is happening in Ukraine right now.

Putin and Xi have been in close contact and met in person at the Olympic opening.

The potential to have 3 nuclear powers (5 if you include France and the UK) in direct confrontation is real.

The Doomsday Clock is 100 seconds to midnight, enjoy every second. 

[AndresSP]

It will depend to a great extent on how the situation develops moving forward but i doubt it escalates beyond what it is now. Putin doesn't need an all out invasion beyond those "republics" and a bloody war with mass civil casualties. Such move will be a disaster domestically and won't sit well with the army either. He's a ruthless sob but not a madman.

 

The West clearly doesn't want to rock the boat either judging by the lame non-individual sanctions announced so far. The biggest Russian banks that make things happen as far as international trade (Sber, VTB, Gasprombank, Alfa) are still not sanctioned, Nord Stream 2 is not critical for the EU for now but the chances are it'll be up and running before the Ukraine gas pipeline deal expires in 2024.

So if current status quo remains the direct consequences for Thailand should not be that big of a deal. A temp hike in Oil/Gas prices and less Russian tourists due to RUB nuking.

[Pique Dard]

the warsaw pact is dead, and course, whether we like it or not,  in poutine/russia's eyes nato is a threat. i may be wrong, but i don't think the usa would react differently if one of their neighbors  become a "close friend" to moscou.

as for me, this is a dangerous game both superpowers are playing

[peter zwart]

44 minutes ago, AndresSP said:

It will depend to a great extent on how the situation develops moving forward but i doubt it escalates beyond what it is now. Putin doesn't need an all out invasion beyond those "republics" and a bloody war with mass civil casualties. Such move will be a disaster domestically and won't sit well with the army either. He's a ruthless sob but not a madman.

 

The West clearly doesn't want to rock the boat either judging by the lame non-individual sanctions announced so far. The biggest Russian banks that make things happen as far as international trade (Sber, VTB, Gasprombank, Alfa) are still not sanctioned, Nord Stream 2 is not critical for the EU for now but the chances are it'll be up and running before the Ukraine gas pipeline deal expires in 2024.

So if current status quo remains the direct consequences for Thailand should not be that big of a deal. A temp hike in Oil/Gas prices and less Russian tourists due to RUB nuking.

May be a second "Berlin" is in the make. With the east of Ukraine as a so called safe zone for Russia.

[Walker88]

Real sanctions will have impact. Seize the assets of Vladdy's Oligarch buddies in the EU. Take the futball teams, the homes in Knightsbridge and Mayfair, the non-Swiss bank accounts (the Swiss are always 'neutral'). Turn the Oligarchs against Vladdy.

 

If Radio Free Europe still existed, the US could go after Russian mothers:

 

"You carried your boy for nine months, then raised him. You want him to come home in a body bag for an insecure, power hungry psychopath driven by a Napoleon Complex resulting from being handed microjunk at birth?"

 

As it is, in a few days we will see an attack on a school filled with Russian-speaking children. The attackers will be Russian, but Vladdy will claim it was Ukraine (false flag). He will then use that as pretext to send in more troops as well as attack Kyiv.

[placeholder]

28 minutes ago, anthos said:

And yes, Putin believes NATO can potentially invade Russia just like it happened with Iraq.

Now, if Russia only had nuclear weapons, that wouldn't be a serious concern but since...oh wait a minute...

[anthos]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Now, if Russia only had nuclear weapons, that wouldn't be a serious concern but since...oh wait a minute...

I personally agree but apparently Putin doesn't seem to rely ,on his nuclear weapons enough.
He keeps arguing that having NATO bases as close as Ukraine minimizes any military advantage Russia may have. 

[arick]

Yes I made   lazy perogies, and Russian borscht instead of Ukrainian! 

[AndresSP]

48 minutes ago, anthos said:

Can't be sure about that.
He made it very clear he doesn't recognize Ukraine as a real state and thinks it's existence is an unfortunate and dangerous coincidence which has to be fixed one way or another and that the deadline is now.
Taking this small chunk of land in the East of Ukraine is just a small step and probably the last attempt to show NATO he's ready to go all the way.
The US government seems to be genuinely interested to provoke him into the war for many reasons (destroying Putin's economy, taking over gas supply business to EU, justifying the military spending etc.) and is not going to back down and meet Putin's demands.
So I think yesterday was just a prelude. Sadly.

The US angle makes sense but i still believe that the speech was just an airing of grievances for plebs to chew on and a bit of posturing for the West coming from a place of weakness. 

[Excel]

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

Im no great fan of US foreign policy but that is no reason to defend Putin , are you Russian by any chance ?

If he is not a Russian maybe he is a Trump supporter. Same same judging by T's latest outbursts supporting his pal Putin.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, anthos said:

I personally agree but apparently Putin doesn't seem to rely ,on his nuclear weapons enough.
He keeps arguing that having NATO bases as close as Ukraine minimizes any military advantage Russia may have. 

Well, he would make that case, wouldn't he? You think he's really unaware of the deterrent power of nuclear weapons?

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

Im no great fan of US foreign policy but that is no reason to defend Putin , are you Russian by any chance ?

No, just a critic of US involvement overseas I expect. Possibly of Arab origin. But it was diversion.

[Dialemco]

Russia has amassed military capability for a full scale invasion of Ukraine which is likely to happen imminently leading to a full scale war which could escalate to other countries Poland in particular which was the start of WW2. China is likely to take the opportunity of invading Taiwan which they have stated is their ultimate aim. International Tourism is likely to stop in this situation as it will be impossible to travel safely. Thailand like many countries will most likely see drop in trade and a further intervention of China in its affairs 

[anthos]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, he would make that case, wouldn't he? You think he's really unaware of the deterrent power of nuclear weapons?

He argues that the deterrent power of his nuclear weapons may be diminished by having NATO missiles within 5 minutes flight from his residence. 
If they can get rid of him and his military headquarters in a few minutes there will be no one to order a retaliation strike.
He just doesn't want to move to Siberia just because of that, you know. Easier to take Ukraine back and he definitely sees more glory in that.

[John Drake]

War coming because our oligarchs don't like their oligarchs.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

So, what are your concerns/predictions about the impact on our lives here as expats in Asia, if the conflict worsens?

None.

[anthos]

17 minutes ago, AndresSP said:

The US angle makes sense but i still believe that the speech was just an airing of grievances for plebs to chew on and a bit of posturing for the West coming from a place of weakness. 

I wish you were right.
To me the speech sounded like it was prepared for a full scale invasion and they only changed the last bit to this "recognition" announcement at the very last moment.
I can't see him stop at where he is now.
Today he already announced that the "republics" are recognized by Russia in their original regional borders that are 3 times bigger than they currently are.
 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, garyk said:

You retiree's better set aside some funds for a rapid departure.

Why?

[chilli42]

It’s interesting reading the comments here that nobody mentions the needless loss of life and misery that will be visited on the people of the Ukraine for no other reason than geopolitical ambitions.  I very one will be a loser in this situation

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Putin and Xi have been in close contact and met in person at the Olympic opening.

The potential to have 3 nuclear powers (5 if you include France and the UK) in direct confrontation is real.

The Doomsday Clock is 100 seconds to midnight, enjoy every second. 

No-one will push the button, because it would end in the decimation of the super-powers.

Retaliation strikes that follow the first launch would guarantee no winners.

So it would be pointless.

 

[vandeventer]

1 hour ago, peter zwart said:

May be a second "Berlin" is in the make. With the east of Ukraine as a so called safe zone for Russia.

In the short term Russia will win but as time goes by more and more countries will be against Russia for invading Ukraine. No one country can stand alone in this world today, just look at Chine losing more and more friends.

[Millcx]

Yeah … TAT will have to cut the estimated Tourist by the 25 million Ukrainians they thought were coming to BKK

[tandor]

2 hours ago, nightfox said:

To bad no body issued sanctions on the U.S when they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, what such hypocrites.

...i think everyone would prefer the US to be 'the world's policeman' rather than Russia or China!

[Isaan sailor]

I just hope Thailand doesn’t pick a side on this—‘cause you know they’ll probably choose the wrong one…

[jerrymahoney]

4 hours ago, garyk said:

You retiree's better set aside some funds for a rapid departure.

Au contraire Thailand may be a good place to ride out any global instability.

[elgenon]

5 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The elephant in the room is if China decides to play copycat with Taiwan. The U.S. won't/can't get directly involved in Ukraine but arguably has an obligation to defend Taiwan. This has the makings of a potential WW3. Obviously hopefully not.

The West is afraid of all the potential for cyber attacks from Russia. What's to stop Russia and China from annexing anything they want?