Experts Say Another Thai Military Coup is Unlikely

[webfact]

Thai soldiers at the Chang Phueak Gate in Chiang Mai. File photo courtesy: Wikipedia 

 

Although Thailand has experienced frequent military coups since 1932, political analysts today say the conditions for another coup are not favourable.

 

Historically, coups often gained legitimacy through public support, but the current landscape differs significantly from 2014, when General Prayut Chan-o-cha annulled the constitution amid considerable public backing. Major legislative changes and evolving political dynamics further underscore why a coup is unlikely, writes Barry Kenyon for Pattaya Mail.

The Ministry of Defence has enacted new regulations allowing the Prime Minister to suspend generals suspected of planning a coup. Additionally, the abolishment of military courts—where appeals were previously not permitted—reduces the military’s unchecked power.

A decade ago, the “yellow shirts” orchestrated widespread protests against the civilian government, fuelling the conditions for a military intervention. These protests, which targeted policies favouring exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, no longer command significant political influence.

Thaksin, who recently received a royal pardon, is now an adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai Party, diminishing the kind of discord that previously led to coups. Thaksin himself downplayed the possibility of a coup, highlighting the absence of street violence and chaos, reported Pattaya Mail.

Military-backed parties have lost much of their political clout. The unelected Senate, with 250 appointees endorsed by Prayut's government, has been dissolved. Its replacement has no role in selecting the Prime Minister.

 

General Prawit Wongsuwon leads the diminished Palang Pracharath Party, which has splintered, with some members joining the civilian-led Pheu Thai administration. Prayut has retired from active politics to join the Privy Council, leaving the Thai military as a less unified political entity.

The spectre of another military junta cannot be entirely disregarded, especially as suspicion lingers over Thaksin’s unresolved charges of disloyalty to the crown. Yet, the constitutional court provides a non-violent means to influence politics.

 

This nine-judge body has the power to rule on the constitutionality of laws, appoint and remove officials, and address issues involving political parties.

 

Recently, the court banned the Move Forward Party and dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, illustrating a shift from military to judicial coups. The term "lawfare" is increasingly used to describe how political battles are now fought in Thailand, reducing the need for military interventions.

 

-- 2024-09-02

 

 

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[thesetat2013]

I guess it all depends on how the people see Thaksins involvement as he tries to do the PM job via his daughter. Personally, I think the people are just waiting and watching. A coup may be a solution if the current PM is seen as unable to do her job or if the people throw their hands up and say enough is enough with Thaksins clan. I think, the future will see another coup within a couple years as Thaksins becomes bolder with every decision he dictates to the press. People know what is happening and see him doing the PM job. It is only a matter of time before the democratic parties begin protesting

[NorthernRyland]

Indeed, "experts say", a classic move straight out of the American playbook.

[mdr224]

Does anyone listen to experts anymore

[Homburg]

You know that a coup is likely when they start to deny it.

[kwilco]

the military has always been fragmented.

 

When people start saying there won't be a coup in Thailand it is becasue lots of people think there will be.

[NemoH]

Well .. according to the playbook for destroying a country ..

It all starts with mass immigration .. 🤣🤣🤣… so many examples around us …I hope we all know where this is naturally heading …

[Luuk Chaai]

Thaksin, who recently received a royal pardon, is now an adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai Party, diminishing the kind of discord that previously led to coups. Thaksin himself downplayed the possibility of a coup, highlighting the absence of street violence and chaos, reported Pattaya Mail.

 

Sounds like .......  get ready to rumble

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Although Thailand has experienced frequent military coups since 1932, political analysts today say the conditions for another coup are not favourable

If Thailand had another coup now I think the rest of the world would shun it as a viable place for investment... it's economy would plummet and it would be exactly like Myanmar... Done

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thaksin, who recently received a royal pardon, is now an adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai Party,

Ruler

[hotchilli]

15 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Does anyone listen to experts anymore

Not Thai ones....

[Kiwiken]

And then!!!!!!!

[Samphawesi]

Experts? What experts? 

[BritScot]

18 minutes ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Thaksin, who recently received a royal pardon, is now an adviser to the ruling Pheu Thai Party, diminishing the kind of discord that previously led to coups. Thaksin himself downplayed the possibility of a coup, highlighting the absence of street violence and chaos, reported Pattaya Mail.

 

Sounds like .......  get ready to rumble

I can't believe people on here are talking as if Military Coup's are good!!! Thailand has regressed instead of progrest because of coups!!! Such thick people should not be allowed to anonymously post! People should be held to account!

[OneMoreFarang]

I lived in Bangkok when the last two coups "happened". They didn't just happen. People were expecting them months before the actually happened.

The coups were no surprise because the corrupt Thaksin and his lackeys openly ignored the laws and enriched himself, his family and his cronies. And the state authorities, like police, prosecutors and judges, didn't do anything against him.

Many people at those times agreed that something has to happen to stop him. The legal authorities didn't stop him, and this is why the coups were initiated and successful. People on the streets gave flowers and soft drinks to the soldiers. They welcomed the coups. I don't know these facts from history books, I was here. "Everybody", at least in Bangkok, was happy that Thaksin was stopped.

 

Now Thaksin is free again and meddling even more in politics again. Lots of people don't like that. And it has to stop. Now the question is, will the police, prosecutors and judges stop him and his lackeys this time? I think they will, because he does not have as much power as before. There is a lot of opposition against him, and he does have some support, but way less than years ago.

 

I think there are basically three options:

a) Thaksin realizes his mistakes and meddles less in politics, or at least not as open.

b) He and his daughter and other enablers will be prosecuted and removed from power.

c) Another coup.

 

A is unlikely, Thaksin is ignorant and does not want to back down.

B is, IMHO, likely. It's just a question of time. Maybe when the pressure gets too high, then A will also happen.

C is still far away. It can only happen if A and B do not happen. At least for now, I don't think that will happen.

 

No, I am no political expert. But after living here for almost 30 years I have an idea what is going on. It's an idea, and my personal opinion, which obviously can be wrong.

[OneMoreFarang]

3 minutes ago, BritScot said:

I can't believe people on here are talking as if Military Coup's are good!!! Thailand has regressed instead of progrest because of coups!!! Such thick people should not be allowed to anonymously post! People should be held to account!

At least the last two coups would not have happened is the police, prosecutors and judges would have done their jobs.

Many people supported the coups not because they like coups, but because they didn't see any alternative.

That phenomenon is not restricted to Thailand. 

[Skeptic7]

Until it happens...again. 

[gargamon]

How many of the coups were done to take the Thaksin clan out of power?

[Aussie999]

Oh... Oh.. there's another one brewing..

[klauskunkel]

"Experts" are in denial again, just like before... 

[thailand49]

From looks of things the last coup they drew up a new consitution to make sure they not need another.

Voters selection doesnt matter just find a reason, Senate can do the picking inspite, if wrong dislike can easily replace and MP can select this go around. Who needs a coup.

[spidermike007]

Correct. Remember, all the moral authority that condoned past coups is gone, baby, gone. The army does not have the guts to wage war against their people, Burmese style. 

 

It won't happen. The Thai army does not have the guts for it, and the Thai soldiers, and the families of the soldiers would never tolerate their sons murdering innocent Thais. The moms would say "you murder one Thai, and you are never welcome in our family home again. Listen to me. Do not do this". And you would have massive army defections. Who will fight at that point? Not the cowardly generals? They would flee into exile with their billions, and the army might collapse, or give up, at that point.

 

One of the fundamental differences, is the Thai soldiers are not facing the level of desperation the young Burmese are. The poverty here is not as grinding as it is in Burma. I do not think it could be sustained, if the fools started it. Thailand is a very different culture than Burma, on a dozen significant levels. And the youth now, are very different people than they were during past coups, which were violent. and were supported with a sort of moral authority, which is gone now. 

 

 

[mfd101]

If we talk about it long enough, sooner or later it'll come true ...

 

It would be nice to think though that the lower ranks of the army might face in the opposite direction next time, guns cocked.

[Hunz Kittisak]

There will be no coup or any attempts will be unsuccessful. Simply because The German doesn’t endorse it. He is Thaksin’s best friend now. 

[Gandtee]

Famous last words!

[bob smith]

They always say that right before another coup!!

 

bob.

[newbee2022]

And these "experts" came from where??? The army??? 😂

[Srikcir]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

political analysts today say the conditions for another coup are not favourable.

Misdirection: 'the conditions for another coup are not necessary.' The coup has been, under military coup leader and PM Gen. Prayut, permanently implanted in Thailand's political, constitutional and judicial systems. 

[Emdog]

Coups here tend to happen against popular elected governments. The current government lacks those two qualities, so not in danger of a coup.

[Tropicalevo]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Historically, coups often gained legitimacy through public support,

Not from what I have seen and heard.

They are started by military wanting more power and funded by uber rich folk who are concerned that others are after their ill gotten gains.