What appears to be coming is not only a revolutionary shakeup of sociétés but one that will happen very quicky.  In the context of other shakeups such as the U.S. withdrawing from global leadership and in war cheap drones bettering billion dollar hardware, it's hard to not feel a little bit sorry for young people.

5 hours ago, angryguy said:

I agree with rich getting richer, which is always the case anyways.

 

lefty predictions are meaningless. Makes me more confident than AI fears are exaggerated

Your uneducated comments are meaningless

5 hours ago, angryguy said:

Americans have diverse opinions but from my experience here mostly all euros are the same

Countries in the EU have a lot more political parties (more opinions) then in the USA.

So, your experience doesn't count for much.

4 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

I think this is what the primary use will be for the next 5 years or even 10 years.

 

You are right in your statement, but the evolution will be a lot quicker. 

Have a look at Business Process Orchestration with AI.

There are plenty of jobs out there, but people nowadays are fricken lazy and don't want to work.  Fire fighting, cops, nurses, teachers, etc. Just about every place in the western world in hiring these people.  Too many weak minds want to work from home or from a computer.  

25 minutes ago, Purdey said:

I cannot imagine it taking the work of HR Managers, lawyers, or teachers, where a measure of empathy is required.

It will to a great extent.

Loads of people in the jobs you mentioned who miss out on empathy

I guess intelligent people will pick jobs, trades, that AI can't replace that human touch ...

... chimney sweep*

... landlord, rehab fixer upper*

... truck driver*

... firearms sale, hands on*

... RE sales*

... aircraft freight, mail, baggage handler

... lawn water sprinkler installer

... vehicle hydraulic lift installer

... tree surgeon, trimmer, remover

... restaurant worker

... landscaper

All jobs and or businesses* I was involved in 😎

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

I guess intelligent people will pick jobs, trades, that AI can't replace that human touch ...

... chimney sweep*

... landlord, rehab fixer upper*

... truck driver*

... firearms sale, hands on*

... RE sales*

... aircraft freight, mail, baggage handler

... lawn water sprinkler installer

... vehicle hydraulic lift installer

... tree surgeon, trimmer, remover

... restaurant worker

... landscaper

All jobs and or businesses* I was involved in 😎

Good list.  I could add plumbers, electricians, locksmiths, roofer, carpenter.  Maybe a few more.

 

Where I live some restaurant worker roles have already gone.  In some cases food is delivered on a rail track (sushi  joint) with orders are made online starting with a QR code.  One place the beer pourer is AI (can't change the barrel yet though).  Truck driver?  there are some driverless buses at the local airport, and driverless taxis around too.  Some metro lines are driverless.

 

I've come across some pretty robotic sales people in the past, but they were not AI (Actual Intelligence).  No moaning about sales people I hasten to add; I've done plenty myself.

14 minutes ago, Watawattana said:

Good list.  I could add plumbers, electricians, locksmiths, roofer, carpenter.  Maybe a few more.

 

They'll always need tradepersons, even for the simplest task (snow removal, rain gutter clearing, pressure washing) and if self employed, easy and unskilled, then you can pay yourself well.   There's no reason to be an employee, or waste money on a degree.

 

I taught myself chimney sweeping after buying the equipment via an add, with the little savings I had, and seemed easy enough.  Cleaned family and friends for free, before trying out paying customers.  1980 ish after getting laid off from an airline job, and really bad job market.   Was making about $100 a house call, and took maybe an hour of slow work per house.   I was hooked on self employment after that, getting laid off from $10 an hour job. 

 

If it didn't cause lung cancer, would of made a long career out of it.  Filled in my free time nicely, that and contracting myself out as truck driver, having a CDL, while rehabbing houses to become a slum lord 

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

I guess intelligent people will pick jobs, trades, that AI can't replace that human touch ...

... chimney sweep*

... landlord, rehab fixer upper*

... truck driver*

... firearms sale, hands on*

... RE sales*

... aircraft freight, mail, baggage handler

... lawn water sprinkler installer

... vehicle hydraulic lift installer

... tree surgeon, trimmer, remover

... restaurant worker

... landscaper

All jobs and or businesses* I was involved in 😎

 

What happens if even a slight majority of people now going to college decide to go into these trades instead? These trades, almost all of them, are already being taken by AI/robotics. Now, an oversupply of new job hunters will force skilled trades wages down more. Combine that with illegal or legal low skilled immigrants coming into countries and that will also push down wages. Meanwhile Private Equity is buying up these type service companies in the US, just as they've been buying up houses. So PE will be able to push down wages for labor while increasing costs for consumers. Making things like plumbing, electrical work, roof repair almost as expensive as buying/renting houses. And PE will have the money to invest in AI/robotics for these jobs. 

19 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

What happens if even a slight majority of people now going to college decide to go into these trades instead? These trades, almost all of them, are already being taken by AI/robotics. Now, an oversupply of new job hunters will force skilled trades wages down more. Combine that with illegal or legal low skilled immigrants coming into countries and that will also push down wages. Meanwhile Private Equity is buying up these type service companies in the US, just as they've been buying up houses. So PE will be able to push down wages for labor while increasing costs for consumers. Making things like plumbing, electrical work, roof repair almost as expensive as buying/renting houses. And PE will have the money to invest in AI/robotics for these jobs. 

I don't deal in what ifs, I deal in reality.  There is definitely a shortage of tradepersons, and why any are expensive when needing.  2 brother remind me how expensive it is to get people to visit the house to get stuff done.   The other brother is handy like myself, and will simple DIY it.

 

I did a bit of research before testing out being a chimney sweep, and there were about 5 in the Philadelphia metro are, all part time workers.    I was surprised when talking with customers.   Telling me I was the only one that answered, or was available, and the cheapest, which being the cheapest I knew, as call them all, and priced myself accordingly.

 

As a home owner, it was hard to find quality handy persons, at a good price.   Also why new housing is so expensive, supply and demand of people working in the trades, and union pricing.   My experiences anyway, 25+ yrs ago.

When, and not if, AI becomes truly intelligent, and by extension self-aware, the loss of jobs and income will become irrelevant, as the human civilization will not have long to live on the planet.

 

Humans are just wasteful and useless from the AI point of view, and will be removed. The first applications of a truly intelligent AI will be military. No matter what the politicians tell you, it’s already happening. Last month an AI controlled fighter jet, took off, engaged with BVR targets, performed advanced dog-fighting maneuvers against manned fighters, and landed without any input from the pilot, who was just there to observe. So, yes, the day of the Skynet is getting closer. The notion that AI intelligence will grow and surpass its creators is the most worrying. And this will happen quickly, we will not have the chance, nor the time to react.

 

All that robotic intelligence needs to sustain and expand itself, is some metals, minerals and energy. It could easily strip-mine the planet for the resources it needs, and use dirty energy sources without any environmental considerations. Planet’s flora and fauna would just disappear. A truly intelligent AI has no interest in helping humanity to clean up the planet, feed the hungry that will create more humans, or get rid of Mumbai’s slums. If you really believe that, then you’re really delusional.

 

Years ago, we had something called Expert Systems. A self-learning (to a point) hardware and/or software constructs that would be used for specific tasks, like defeating Kasparov in chess, or guiding an ICBM…. I am definitely for ES, but definitely against continued development of true AI.

Fortunately, I will not be around when The Singularity happens…

Most jobs do not require significant intelligence. 

 

At any given moment, exactly half the population is below median intelligence. 

 

27 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

2 brother remind me how expensive it is to get people to visit the house to get stuff done. 

 

Don't you think that will cut demand (and wages) then? Gen Z and the Millennials are being forced into taking care of themselves. They can't pay rent, buy food, operate a car, and have somebody do home repairs. Most can't change a tire, much less do minor car maintenance or home maintenance. But they will learn, because the option of paying for it isn't going to be there. So they'll learn how to repair fences, install a spare roof shingle, and even mow their own lawns.

2 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

Loads of skilled trades will be replaced by automation.

plumbers- nope

Carpenters-nope

Cement flat work - nope

Masons-nope

Electricians - nope
HVAC- nope
Upholstery- nope

mechanics- nope

and on and on.

Within these, are many different types and none of it can be done by automation, not at all. 

 

I can't wait to see all the people that lose jobs to AI, begin to pick fruit and vegetables.
We're several generations away from what your dream is.

3 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Don't you think that will cut demand (and wages) then? Gen Z and the Millennials are being forced into taking care of themselves. They can't pay rent, buy food, operate a car, and have somebody do home repairs. Most can't change a tire, much less do minor car maintenance or home maintenance. But they will learn, because the option of paying for it isn't going to be there. So they'll learn how to repair fences, install a spare roof shingle, and even mow their own lawns.

I grew up in a tract home in southern California. Only one home had a gardener.By 2010 I do not think there was a single house that did not have a gardener.

4 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:

plumbers- nope

Carpenters-nope

Cement flat work - nope

Masons-nope

Electricians - nope
HVAC- nope
Upholstery- nope

mechanics- nope

and on and on.

Within these, are many different types and none of it can be done by automation, not at all. 

 

I can't wait to see all the people that lose jobs to AI, begin to pick fruit and vegetables.
We're several generations away from what your dream is.

 

What you don't see...  is that all those who lose their jobs to AI won't be picking fruit and vegetables...   as your rightly indicate, we are a generaltion (at least away from it)...    They'll train for the jobs you outline above (plumbers, Carpenters, Masons, Electricians etc)... 

 

So... those who think 'their jobs are safe from AI'...  fail to recognise that more people will move towards those positions, they will be greater competition for the same amount of work...   

 

Thus: While many are confident the incoming AI revolution will not touch them directly - indirectly it will have significant impact on the bottom line - and for all but the 'major' Corporations utilising AI to its advantage, I cant see it being a good thing for the average hands on worker... 

1 minute ago, mogandave said:

I grew up in a tract home in southern California. Only one home had a gardener.By 2010 I do not think there was a single house that did not have a gardener.

 

I do wonder how many in the younger generations own a lawn mower, an edger, know about furnace/aircon air filters, have a tool box, a shed with garden tools, or just a hammer and some nails. My guess is that many of them have a lot to learn--and if they want a decent life, they'll have to learn.

5 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

What you don't see...  is that all those who lose their jobs to AI won't be picking fruit and vegetables...   as your rightly indicate, we are a generaltion (at least away from it)...    They'll train for the jobs you outline above (plumbers, Carpenters, Masons, Electricians etc)... 

 

So... those who think 'their jobs are safe from AI'...  fail to recognise that more people will move towards those positions, they will be greater competition for the same amount of work...   

 

Thus: While many are confident the incoming AI recolution will not touch them directly - indirectly it will have significant impact on the bottom line.

Not even close. The removal of criminal migrants from America give the people replaced by AI an opportunity but, that typically requires an apprenticeship of 2-4 yrs.
There was a skilled labor shortage before this, its still there.

Many of them will be too stupid to learn a trade so off to the fields with them.

There will be a huge population reduction before the new world moves forward with AI.

Just now, John Drake said:

 

I do wonder how many in the younger generations own a lawn mower, an edger, know about furnace/aircon air filters, have a tool box, a shed with garden tools, or just a hammer and some nails. My guess is that many of them have a lot to learn--and if they want a decent life, they'll have to learn.

I know a few trades guys in SoCal. Florida and upstate NY and the are doing great. 

 

I know one a tile guy that makes a ton, and all he does is bid and sell work. Subs virtually everything out. He still loves doing it, and just  does a few showcase jobs a year. 

2 minutes ago, blaze master said:

There will be a huge population reduction before the new world moves forward with AI.

 

I think so, but where?

Just now, John Drake said:

 

I think so, but where?

 

Everywhere. 90 percent of the population won't be needed or wanted. 

11 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Don't you think that will cut demand (and wages) then? Gen Z and the Millennials are being forced into taking care of themselves. They can't pay rent, buy food, operate a car, and have somebody do home repairs. Most can't change a tire, much less do minor car maintenance or home maintenance. But they will learn, because the option of paying for it isn't going to be there. So they'll learn how to repair fences, install a spare roof shingle, and even mow their own lawns.

 

A lot of this so-called skilled labour isn’t really that skilled, its just work and graft - it’s just a matter of having the sense not to do something daft.

 

Last year, for instance, I renovated a room in my house. I’d never attempted anything like it before, but after being messed around by two contractors in a row - one of whom thought turning up three hours late was perfectly acceptable - I cancelled the whole thing and decided to get on with it myself.

A week later, absolutely knackered but satisfied, I’d finished the entire room (just a medium-sized bedroom) - and I knew it had been done properly - better than a contractor had done elsewhere.

 

Then there was the blocked sink incident. I tried a quick fix with a plunger, no luck. Called a plumber - they wanted 2,000 baht. No chance. I had the time, so I rolled up my sleeves, took the drains apart, got covered in filth, and an hour later everything was working perfectly again.

 

Same story with a faulty outside tap linked directly to the mains (mains tap itself jammed as week). Rather than calling a plumber to change it, I did it myself. Ended up soaked to the skin from the mains pressure, but I saved the 2,000 baht call-out for a tap that cost 100 baht - and got a free shower for my trouble.

 

I pressure-washed the driveway because I simply couldn’t be bothered ringing around to find someone to do it.

 

This is all basic stuff that anyone could do - but most people choose not to, either because they don’t have the time or can’t be arsed to put in the effort.

 

And as for the claim that “most people can’t even change a tyre” - of course they can. It’s simple enough. We tend to underestimate younger generations, as if we’re the only ones who ever learned anything practical. Meanwhile, boomers are at home struggling to work the TV remote or figure out their surround sound setup.

 

Every generation seems to complain that the next one is hopeless - yet it’s often the same older lot who can’t handle digital payments, get flustered by mobile banking, or can’t log in to their online account because the layout’s changed.

 

 

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

This time, it's different.

Previous revolutionary technological advancements disrupted many people but then created even more new jobs and greater overall wealth related to the new technology.

Personally, my career didn't even exist until I was over 30. I couldn't have been involved in it earlier before. My general not technical liberal arts education prepared me to jump in when as soon as the change happened.

That was then. This is now.

AI will be a massive job disrupter (which is a massive understatement) but will other than a small number of AI manager types for the super skilled, the majority of those disrupted will not find that AI leads to new career paths.

I'm sure glad I didn't bother to learn to code! 

Well, but AI will create more jobs even. Ai can only help but not give any ideas. So without human brain AI is impossible to use. 

Many people will be jobless but got the chance to learn other things than before. 

The time of "once learnt/studied" and got a life time profession/job might be gone.

Even on some blogs similar to AN there will be no mods anymore. A good/better? programmed neutral AI will do.

If TV presenter are necessary we don't know yet. Maybe substituted bei an artificial one you read the news. 

Don's stop learning is my advice for the future generation Y or Z.

8 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:

Not even close. The removal of criminal migrants from America give the people replaced by AI an opportunity but, that typically requires an apprenticeship of 2-4 yrs.
There was a skilled labor shortage before this, its still there.

Many of them will be too stupid to learn a trade so off to the fields with them.

 

'learning a trade' is exactly 'what the stupid people did before - its served them well given the shortages, brickies, plumbers, electricians...   its something that can be learned by anyone... 

 

Very few are too stupid to learn a trade - its what the 'school leavers' would do because they had few other options...    Now of course, some are making good money through hard work and those University leavers are struggling to find work in an environment that no long needs their skill set...  They'll resort to being a brickie, plumber, electrician, just as easily as any 16 year leaving school did... 

 

... future generations may well realise that there is no need to go to Uni - get themselves £100k into debt, they can pickup a trade, learn... start their own business and get along comfortably - but the competition will be so much higher because lots more will be attempting it.

 

 

25 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Don't you think that will cut demand (and wages) then? Gen Z and the Millennials are being forced into taking care of themselves. They can't pay rent, buy food, operate a car, and have somebody do home repairs. Most can't change a tire, much less do minor car maintenance or home maintenance. But they will learn, because the option of paying for it isn't going to be there. So they'll learn how to repair fences, install a spare roof shingle, and even mow their own lawns.

I guess they better learn how to do things for themselves.   The smart one will, the idiots will demand more socialism, and a guaranteed monthly living expense benefit, like UK and some EU countries have, on the backs of those that do work  & pay taxes.

 

Oh wait, this is the USA we're talking about ... ain't going happen.   Work or live in the streets, their call, but don't cry about it.  Learn, work or get left behind .... UP2U

8 hours ago, angryguy said:

Americans have diverse opinions but from my experience here mostly all euros are the same

That is changing as the actual impacts of the left wing policies have started to show.  The Immigration and Violence and National Security issues are in particular causing European to reject left wing stupidity. The next step is that they then look at the reasons why all left wing Government massively increase the numbers of Immigrants (legal and illegal) from 3rd world countries.   The rejection is amplified when the People realise that all the troubles are a result of policies designed to increase the numbers of people who will vote left wing (99% of illegals and about 70-80% of legals from the 3rd world vote left wing).

They said the same thing when Industrialisation started and they were wrong then.  Yes many jobs will be taken over by AI - especially technical roles like Doctors and Lawyers. But there will always be supervisor and complementary roles, and new roles will be created. There are many things in life that are non-computational and algorithms will not be able to do them. Things that heavily require empathy and ethics and creativity and complex problem-solving skills will not be able to be completed well by any AI. 

 

However, in the far distant future it could well happen that humans and AI get 'integrated' together and that would certainly leave out many roles in life for 'pure' humans. Not gonna impact any of us - that is for sure. 

36 minutes ago, blaze master said:

 

Everywhere. 90 percent of the population won't be needed or wanted. 

I would like to correct your figure. How about 100%. See my post above.