Evidence now suggests herd immunity likely impossible without a vaccine

[Jingthing]

We've all heard the herd immunity advocates and theories from the very beginning of this pandemic.

 

Some of the rhetoric about that was rational enough but a lot of was extremely creepy and cold hearted. People would say things like who cares it's only old people that were about to die anyway which besides being offensive was never actually true. Cull the herd as if humans are lifestock. No thank you. 

 

Also there has been a massive amount of rhetoric suggesting it's a clean binary choice between controlling the virus and saving the economy when the truth is obviously that you save the economy by controlling the virus. No shortcuts.

 

But be that as it may, as we now know much more about the virus and the dominant strain may be 10 times more infectious than the original, the arguments for "natural" herd immunity (without a vaccine) were legit enough to be considered (such as in the failed experiment in Sweden).

 

But all that may soon be over!

 

The idea of natural herd immunity presumes that getting infected and recovering means you are  now immune to a good degree and for a long period of time.

 

For numerous other infectious agents, that is indeed the case.

 

But for this one  -- evidence is now suggesting that is NOT the case.

 

This is a really big deal if true.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opinions/herd-immunity-covid-19-uncomfortable-reality-haseltine/index.html

 

Quote

We're wasting time talking about herd immunity

 

 

So if true, people can just give up the natural herd immunity dream (or nightmare) and focus on what will work for this virus.

 

All the things we have been doing and getting the vaccine out ASAP and enough people actually being willing to take the vaccine.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by Jingthing

[farang51]

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

[torturedsole]

Already contracted C19 in February of this year.  No problem for relatively healthy guy and the common cold regularly provides worse symptoms than C19.  

 

Easier to quarantine those most at risk rather than the entire global population.  

 

Give it two or three years and C19 will be well and truly forgotten about.  

 

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by torturedsole

[ukrules]

Don't despair, there's one thing missing from this article that's also missing from every other article that's been doing the rounds lately - all on the same subject.

 

There's no mention of B cells whatsoever. It's almost like the journalists don't know what they are, either that or they're choosing to ignore it completely as it makes for a better headline and more clicks.

 

They're all equating a lack of or a reducing count / titer of antibodies with reduced or ineffective immunity.

 

How do you think a vaccine works? It creates B cells which then create antibodies

B cells are a part of the memory of the immune system and they can last for decades.

 

So what they're saying could be partly true regarding future infections, SARS-COV-2 could be the 'fifth cold' coming from a Coronavirus, the rest (100's of them) being rhinoviruses.

 

My theory is that something similar happened when the other 4 'corona colds' emerged, which could have been 100's or even 1000's of years ago.

 

We now contract these other colds as infants and build a measure of immunity to them over a lifetime. These days hardly anyone dies from a cold unless there's something wrong with their immune system, they're mostly an annoyance.

 

If you breathe it in you will become infected even if you're 'immune' (just like a cold) but due to the immune response you may not even notice it, this depends on whether you've been exposed to it before. That immune response doesn't need a high level of antibodies, these can be created quickly if the B cells already exist.

 

Vaccination is herd immunity and it's using the same mechanism minus the T cells as immunity gained from infection.

 

This likely doesn't mean you can't get it again like a regular cold but it shouldn't be as bad.

 

That's the way I see it. Also, watch out for news headlines in the next couple of months saying antibody levels are falling in those who are vaccinated because that's likely to happen.

 

Antibodies aren't everything though.

 

Worth a read : https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-do-we-know-who-immune-covid-19

Edited July 15, 2020 by ukrules

[ezzra]

I think Sweden took the punt on herd immunity and lost big time with 76,500 infected and 5,572 dead for a nation of 10 millions... anyone else want to try?...

[bodga]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

So if true

Very  telling.

[bodga]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

B cells are a part of the memory of the immune system and they can last for decades.

Bingo

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

So if true, people can just give up the natural herd immunity dream (or nightmare) and focus on what will work for this virus.

Does the OP understand what a vaccine is?

A vaccine is a weak or impotent version of a disease, which when introduced into the body stimulates the body to activate it's defenses ie it is THE DISEASE.

 

If this virus can't create natural defenses we are screwed anyway, so might just as well find a friend for the end of the world ( as we know it ).

It's not a case of economies being destroyed in the future- they already are. 1929, here we go again.

[thaibeachlovers]

22 minutes ago, ezzra said:

I think Sweden took the punt on herd immunity and lost big time with 76,500 infected and 5,572 dead for a nation of 10 millions... anyone else want to try?...

That was just the first wave. They are set to do far, far better in the second, third etc waves to come having got further down the herd immunity track.

Every country that locked down has a population with very little immunity. Vaccine for 8 billion- dream on.

[LomSak27]

Yeah, but the ones yacking so loudly about herd immunity, were the amateur epidemiologist and virologists brigade. They’ll be sniffing around for some miracle cure while mouthing conspiracy theories, meanwhile the herd moves on to Croc River.

 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Don't despair, there's one thing missing from this article that's also missing from every other article that's been doing the rounds lately - all on the same subject.

 

There's no mention of B cells whatsoever. It's almost like the journalists don't know what they are, either that or they're choosing to ignore it completely as it makes for a better headline and more clicks.

 

They're all equating a lack of or a reducing count / titer of antibodies with reduced or ineffective immunity.

 

How do you think a vaccine works? It creates B cells which then create antibodies

B cells are a part of the memory of the immune system and they can last for decades.

 

So what they're saying could be partly true regarding future infections, SARS-COV-2 could be the 'fifth cold' coming from a Coronavirus, the rest (100's of them) being rhinoviruses.

 

My theory is that something similar happened when the other 4 'corona colds' emerged, which could have been 100's or even 1000's of years ago.

 

We now contract these other colds as infants and build a measure of immunity to them over a lifetime. These days hardly anyone dies from a cold unless there's something wrong with their immune system, they're mostly an annoyance.

 

If you breathe it in you will become infected even if you're 'immune' (just like a cold) but due to the immune response you may not even notice it, this depends on whether you've been exposed to it before. That immune response doesn't need a high level of antibodies, these can be created quickly if the B cells already exist.

 

Vaccination is herd immunity and it's using the same mechanism minus the T cells as immunity gained from infection.

 

This likely doesn't mean you can't get it again like a regular cold but it shouldn't be as bad.

 

That's the way I see it. Also, watch out for news headlines in the next couple of months saying antibody levels are falling in those who are vaccinated because that's likely to happen.

 

Antibodies aren't everything though.

 

Worth a read : https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/how-do-we-know-who-immune-covid-19

100% agree with this well written and informative post. 

 

One point to add is the potential for antigenic drift of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, whether or not there even is any drift, but if so, is the Vaccine built from and targeting the virus before its evolved, would it still be effective?

 

Then there is also how effective a vaccine is (influenza is reported as being 40-60% effective) 

Thus, IF the vaccine is only 60% effective and the the CFR of Covid-19 is 1% The vaccine could be saving 6 out of 1000 people who contract Covid-19 .

The 99% (possible CFR figures) who contacts Covid-19 don’t all get an easy ride - its estimated 85% have no or very weak symptoms and the rest have severe symptoms with 4% requiring a respirators.

 

With those numbers [CFR 1% / Vaccine 60% Effective / 15% of Covid-19 cases are serious)

 

The vaccine would be result in approximately 96 people out of 1000 who would be saved from severe impact or dieing.

 

All Estimated numbers of course, but it tells us the importance of the vaccine and that its not just saving lives but preventing people from becoming extremely ill. 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

With all the contradictory news going around, much of which is highly politicised, I wonder how much basis there is on there being no immunity?

 

The immunity question is so important, I’m wondering how we have not found out with any degree of certainty already. 

[1FinickyOne]

7 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’m wondering how we have not found out with any degree of certainty already. 

my sad and unprofessional thought on that, is that the more the virus spreads, the more chance it has to mutate and become more sophisticated at killing us... 

 

maybe, this time, the virus wins... 

[cmarshall]

Perhaps the jury is still out on herd immunity, but I think the odds are against it since none of the seven known coronaviruses produce immunity lasting more than a few months, if at all.

 

It is also true that efforts to develop vaccines against coronaviruses SARS and MERS have failed.  So far, it looks like the odds are against a vaccine as well.

 

If that's the case, the world had better learn how to contain outbreaks.  The US, in particular, should emerge from its medieval superstititions and promote science, for a change.  If not, the virus will just keep returning again and again, the way the plague did in Europe for four hundred years.

[simple1]

3 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

There is no herd immunity from influenza. There is the annual 'flu' vaccine which worldwide annual deaths at approx 500k instead of millions. Covid is far more infectious (in Oz one person in Sydney from an interstate city with Covid - person zero - has so far caused 34 infections in a cluster within a few weeks. Covid vaccine is predicted to be available in the coming 4 - 12 months with human trails current in some countries, including Australia. Hopefully the Australian government will not permit the US to forward buy the entire production as they have done in at least one other country.

Edited July 16, 2020 by simple1

[innosiem]

99% of cases are mild (like the flu) according to worldometer
"antibody tests" are showing people have been asymptomatic and not even noticed it
i would call that herd immunity

first they said "its not the flu, its nothing like the flu"
now they are saying its just like the flu
"SARS-CoV-2 does indeed act like its more common cousins"

the (dubious) numbers are nothing more than the flu
and

during the same period, the global population has INCREASED by ~50 million people
 

[eeworldwide]

11 minutes ago, simple1 said:

There is no herd immunity from influenza. There is the annual 'flu' vaccine which worldwide annual deaths at approx 500k instead of millions. Covid is far more infectious (in Oz one person in Sydney from an interstate city with Covid - person zero - has so far caused 34 infections in a cluster within a few weeks. Covid vaccine is predicted to be available in the coming 4 - 12 months with human trails current in some countries, including Australia. Hopefully the Australian government will not permit the US to forward buy the entire production as they have done in at least one other country.

Would you really put faith in the worlds fastest developed vaccine?? And it will take at least a year for a sufficient amount to be produced.

[innosiem]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

Then there is also how effective a vaccine is (influenza is reported as being 40-60% effective) 

you can only measure how INeffective a vaccine is,
not its effectiveness 
as there is now way of ever knowing if a person would have got the flu after having a flu shot
what is certain
is when someone does get the flu after having a flu shot
it is unequivocal that the flu shot was ineffective

so at best
vaccines are at minimum 40%-60% ineffective

Those who do not get the flu after having a flu shot
may have not got the flu even without the shot

#JustSayin

[innosiem]

18 minutes ago, simple1 said:

There is no herd immunity from influenza. There is the annual 'flu' vaccine

That says it all????

 

19 minutes ago, simple1 said:

worldwide annual deaths at approx 500k instead of millions

what do you mean instead of millions?
covid has the same numbers as the flu, (*586,127 deaths)
*even when numbers are being bumped up
by people with pre existing underlying conditions (95% of covid deaths in UK had pre-existing conditions)
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
and deaths presumed and recorded as covid without testing
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

Lets not forget during this same period, the human race has INCREASED by roughly 50 million people

[utalkin2me]

One death a day now in Sweden. They have basically conquered this virus with their policy. Of course there could be a resurgence. The mystery to me is why the world news is not reporting on their success. It makes about as much sense as a country finding a cure for cancer and nobody else talks about it or uses the new treatment. 

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

You don't know that about a potential vaccine. I've never heard such a pessimistic projection like that but the need for an annual shot is often mentioned as a possibility. 

[steelepulse]

Meanwhile, what are the scare and fear mongers doing to give themselves the best possible defense against the virus?  Are they all changing their diets and cutting out the sugars and processed carbs that cause metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance?  Are they getting more exercise in and ensuring enough vitamin D?  Are they taking zinc?   If not, I would highly suggest they look in the mirror before trying to spread fear.

 

 

[geriatrickid]

Community Immunity (aka herd immunity) is a numbers game. predictions are reliable when the disease is  understood and we are only a short time into this  infection,

 

The issue has become politicized, so what better way to address some of the bias by  seeing what a conservative republican Governor of the US State of Mississippi has to say. He shreds the position of those who insist that we should allow a natural community immunity to develop. I think he has a reasonable position and not because we agree. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/tate-reeves-mississippi-coronavirus-herd-immunity/index.html

 

4 hours ago, farang51 said:

If it is not possible to achieve natural herd immunity, then it is not possible to achieve herd immunity with a vaccine; unless people get vaccinated every few months. I certainly hope, he is wrong.

Really?  We used the concept to  manage measles, mumps,rubella and polio. It was proven an effective strategy.

 

4 hours ago, torturedsole said:

Already contracted C19 in February of this year.  No problem for relatively healthy guy and the common cold regularly provides worse symptoms than C19.  

Easier to quarantine those most at risk rather than the entire global population.  

Give it two or three years and C19 will be well and truly forgotten about.  

Were you actually diagnosed using the appropriate procedures, i.e. Nucleic acid-based testing (aka molecular or  PCR) at the appropriate intervals? This was the swab that was dug deep up your nose and down into your throat.   The blood tests only identify if antibodies are present and they will not identify an infected person, only if someone had been exposed to the virus. The antibody tests that were available up until May were inconsistent and prone to a high degree of error. Many people assumed they were infected or misunderstood the  intent of the antibody test.

 

Maybe you were infected, but you are you and have your own characteristics. You are apparently unaware that that the infection acts differently in each infected person and general health is but one of the factors that influences the outcome. Genetic attributes, gender, vaccine and prior infection history and environmental factors all  have an influence.  You assume that you have recovered and all is well. However, what we are now seeing is that the infection leaves its calling card in many of the 'recovered". It is not unusual to see continued fatigue, cognitive impairment,  blood clotting disorders  and lung impairment. One of the most common  injuries observed is bilateral nodular and peripheral ground glass opacities and consolidation in the lung tissue. Ask a recovered patient if he  saw his lung xray and discussed with his/her physican, and the likely answer is no because  the physician can't  fix it. It might heal on its own or it may result in scarring making the patient  more susceptible to respiratory infections.  Because a person is unaware the damage is there does not mean it isn't present.

 

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

With all the contradictory news going around, much of which is highly politicised, I wonder how much basis there is on there being no immunity?

 

The immunity question is so important, I’m wondering how we have not found out with any degree of certainty already. 

We are in the early stages and it takes time to make a determination. Antibodies have been identified. Whether they are helpful or not is another issue.

 

1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

Perhaps the jury is still out on herd immunity, but I think the odds are against it since none of the seven known coronaviruses produce immunity lasting more than a few months, if at all.

 

It is also true that efforts to develop vaccines against coronaviruses SARS and MERS have failed.  So far, it looks like the odds are against a vaccine as well.

 

If that's the case, the world had better learn how to contain outbreaks.  The US, in particular, should emerge from its medieval superstititions and promote science, for a change.  If not, the virus will just keep returning again and again, the way the plague did in Europe for four hundred years.

The  previous  SARS and MERS virus vaccines  saw their research stopped after the previous epidemics went away. As soon as the infections stopped spreading, governments stopped the   research into the coronavirus. The reason the  Oxford vaccine is so far ahead of everyone else is because of the prior research,  The Canadian government did develop an ebola vaccine and that research is being used for the SARS Cov-2 vaccine. Oxford University had done prior SARS research and applied other ongoing vaccine research.

 

I remind you that there are effective coronavirus vaccines already in use. Humans are not the only creatures susceptible to corona viruses. Many types of animals are at risk too.  Corona virus vaccines are available for dogs, cats, cows and swine. These corona viruses are obviously different from the SARS Cov-2 virus, but the point here is that a vaccine is possible and I offer that the odds are in favour because of the track record to date.

 

Yes, you make a good point on the  resistance to vaccines and the  ignorance that grips too many people. A person far more qualified, experienced and educated than me said it best;

 

Because of a “general anti-science, anti-authority, anti-vaccine feeling,” the U.S. is “unlikely” to achieve herd immunity even after a vaccine is available.

- Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

 

I think that applies for a large part of the world as well. It explains why countries like pakistan still suffer  polio epidemics and why many preventable  childhood disease  are often seen in many countries,

Edited July 16, 2020 by geriatrickid

[J Town]

4 hours ago, torturedsole said:

Already contracted C19 in February of this year.  No problem for relatively healthy guy and the common cold regularly provides worse symptoms than C19.  

 

Easier to quarantine those most at risk rather than the entire global population.  

 

Give it two or three years and C19 will be well and truly forgotten about.  

Sure, just like HIV. No one knows the long term damage done yet by Covid. The US military now has a lifetime ban on anyone joining if they contracted Covid due to all the collateral damage done to the body.

[J Town]

1 hour ago, utalkin2me said:

One death a day now in Sweden. They have basically conquered this virus with their policy. Of course there could be a resurgence. The mystery to me is why the world news is not reporting on their success. It makes about as much sense as a country finding a cure for cancer and nobody else talks about it or uses the new treatment. 

Curious where you get your info. This was broadcast 3 hours prior to my post.

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/sweden-sees-high-virus-mortality-rate-after-resisting-lockdown/

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, steelepulse said:

Meanwhile, what are the scare and fear mongers doing to give themselves the best possible defense against the virus?  Are they all changing their diets and cutting out the sugars and processed carbs that cause metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance?  Are they getting more exercise in and ensuring enough vitamin D?  Are they taking zinc?   If not, I would highly suggest they look in the mirror before trying to spread fear.

 

 

I agree that people should indeed do what they can to improve their health. But nothing is foolproof and many people have conditions including old age that really can't be fixed. Months ago I started a topic about this and concluded that making sure that you have enough vitamin D is definitely something rather easy that everyone should do now. I also agree with you about improving nutrition, reducing sugar, etc. I am not so convinced about zinc though. Such measures are not likely to prevent infections but may increase the odds of surviving it. Thanks for mentioning that aspect of this even though rather off topic. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Jingthing

[steelepulse]

37 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I agree that people should indeed do what they can to improve their health. But nothing is foolproof and many people have conditions including old age that really can't be fixed. Months ago I started a topic about this and concluded that making sure that you have enough vitamin D is definitely something rather easy that everyone should do now. I also agree with you about improving nutrition, reducing sugar, etc. I am not so convinced about zinc though. Such measures are not likely to prevent infections but may increase the odds of surviving it. Thanks for mentioning that aspect of this even though rather off topic. 

Not sure if this is off topic if people are worried about not getting herd immunity.  If you can't get herd immunity, then the best thing is to up your personal defenses against the virus.  

[englishoak]

Of course its not true, its from CNN. 

[Jingthing]

13 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

Not sure if this is off topic if people are worried about not getting herd immunity.  If you can't get herd immunity, then the best thing is to up your personal defenses against the virus.  

Well I like to look at this problem globally. It's not nearly good enough that some countries have this temporarily under control as long as other countries are being ravaged with exponential infections. 

 

I think that the majority consensus among scientists is that that the eventual long term effective solution is vaccines. I agree with that consensus. All the other stuff is a waiting game until we can get there. 

 

Also the good news for the anti vaccine crowd is that not nearly everyone will need to get vaccinated for there to be a global public health benefit. 

 

I do agree this is going to take a lot of time. Not only the development but the safety testing and the logistics of producing and delivering billions of doses. Not trivial! 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

Just now, englishoak said:

Of course its not true, its from CNN. 

Sure thing.