2 hours ago, Polaky said:

Lock it up!, lock it up now!, close the airports, curfews!, or face the inevitable. 

yes of course, we close everything again so we collapse what remains of the economy and increase the number of unemployed And so they will all come to eat at your house. Will you feed them?  Easy to talk when you have a full stomach

routinely putting people in hospital even with no symptoms is crazy. No wonder they are running out of beds. Pack them in  then watch cases fly. Lock downs don't work. As of noon today recovery rates in Thailand were were at 99.6% and deaths at point 04 %. Google Thailand virus stats and get to the hour reports. Stop the bloody panic.

Preferably before the next long weekend in early May. A repeat of the Songkran spread fest would be devastating. 

1 hour ago, Tech65 said:

Ok, agree, then they should have lock the country down for much longer, perhaps forever? have you been in India?

I have been to India. I also read news a lot. Modi has been holding a lot of election rallies, few people wearing masks. As previously noted, he did nothing about reining in the Kumbh Mela festival, so we can expect much worse to come. Already hospitals are running out of beds and oxygen. This will be hell on earth. Perhaps India can top the world's 1918 fatalities if the world does not step in with all kinds of aid.

 

When the double-mutation variant started circulating, it was time to implement lockdown. Now it seems to be too late. I hope that Thailand is prepared when this variant reaches us. Furthermore, India is the perfect habitat for more bad variants to arise.

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The rumor du jour is that the government is going to extend quarantine for all incoming Farangs to 14 days again. There is a Reuters report that claims its a done deal. No fun.

 

<deleted> that! I get out tomorrow morning, they better not change their minds before then.

1 hour ago, Tech65 said:

The flat curve thank to vaccine is temporary. The effect of the protection seems to be indicated in 6 months. Then? And what if the virus  mutates?

Protection is expected to be at least a year, but we have to wait and see. But, how will vaccines deal with the double-mutation variant from India??

1 minute ago, Tech65 said:

Science says that covid-9 can be treated and if treated properly as soon as the first syntoms arise, mortality becomes very very low.

Mortality is what is important not the "CASES".

Problem is a lot of them dont even show symptoms, where's the logic in that?

1 minute ago, placnx said:

But, how will vaccines deal with the double-mutation variant from India??

No idea.....

Therapeutics will though.

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I thought lockdowns were supposed to stop the health services being 'overwhelmed'.  They won't actually stop the virus spreading.  

Lockdowns with other mitigation measures will slow the spread. "Overwhelmed" is not a joke. Just see the current news from India.

My guess a lot of people will stay away from getting tested in case it comes out positive then they get banged up in hospital, I only know of 3 people to get covid they are in the UK and all 3 were sent home to self isolate and all recovered.

7 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Not stronger, different.  Some years the flu is more prevalent and has a higher mortality rate, others lower  If vaccines were truly effective 9% of the world would not get the flu each year.  Even assuming Covid is less likely to spread than the flu, if 1% of the world gets Covid that is 77 million people.  Can common sense measures be employed, and those most at risk take extra precautions yes.  However thinking that just a few more months of lockdowns is the solution is foolhardy.  It is 100% certain that the economy already weak will cause long term harm to millions of people with the likelihood being that once the lock down ends that the virus will start the cycle of spreading again.  

 

We are dealing with politics here, the virus loves politics, it thrives in it. To stop the excess deaths from the virus we now have to follow real world data, places like Israel, the UK, the US doing nicely. Lockdowns in tandem with vaccinations work, with then gradual easing of restrictions.

 

The problem we had here in Thailand was politics, if there had been a short sharp lockdown before Songkran for 4 - 6 weeks it would have contained it enough to carry on as it was before, then maybe just targeted lockdowns in outbreak areas until the vaccination roll out.

 

Instead now we have a full on outbreak that has not had effective measures put in place to deal with it and we can see the effects, hospitals at breaking point right now and deaths increasing. The economic effects are going to be much worse now than they would have been had it been done sooner.

 

The positive rates in the world are now increasing again and also deaths, new highs are forming, the world needs to unite now unless we want this to go on forever.

 

Those at risk of this virus include not only the elderly but the millions of people in the world with asthma, cancer, many underlying diseases that are very common but deadly when exposed to covid. 

 

While I accept your view, I personally take the choice that we have to follow the path of the advice from the experts.

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The rumor du jour is that the government is going to extend quarantine for all incoming Farangs to 14 days again. There is a Reuters report that claims its a done deal. No fun.

 

Given that the COVID explosion was from local  bkk bars and clubS. That seems logical.  NOT

7 minutes ago, Tech65 said:

Science says that covid-9 can be treated and if treated properly as soon as the first syntoms arise, mortality becomes very very low.

Mortality is what is important not the "CASES".

 

Not to forget that science and data records show that mortality below 55 years old is close to '0' any way, if without pathologies. 

However they still die, Thailand with its low death rate has still had young cases dying, a young pregnant girl just a few days ago, and others.

2 minutes ago, jossthaifarang said:

Problem is a lot of them dont even show symptoms, where's the logic in that?

Asymptomatics aren't covid 19 sick people, are perfectly healthy people. They have only a presence of microparticles of virus. PCR is also very unreliable, and tests done one after the other give different results.

 

Covid syntoms are fever, sore throat etc.. That is the moment when you get sick and need Immediate treatment.  

5 hours ago, colinneil said:

Too late for a lockdown, the virus is everywhere, due to the stupidity of people travelling for songkran, and Prayuts mob for allowing it to happen.

Except that first part is not true.

Yes, it’s everywhere, which makes a ‘shelter in place’, ‘limit contact as much as possible for the next month’, far more important, and eventually effective. This is the functionally prophylactic practice. 

There’s no choice of feasible options. Sure there are ‘options’, but they won’t work.

 

Agreed on the general stupidity.

A glaring  repeat of voting day and New Years. Both cases could have been avoided.
This one the cabinet ministers were out partying at ground zero, to congratulate themselves for stopping New Years outbreak in 3 month...  

never mind eminent Doctors were giving clear and unambiguous public warnings.

 

No wonder the medical establishment is enraged now.  Yes, Anutin must go. Never was there a more rounded off tip of the spear.

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Reasonable precautions are just that.  History shows that diseases mutate.  Despite decades of vaccines against the flu, 9% of the world gets the flu each year.  The world is going to have to "learn to" go about its business each day with the Covid 19 virus co-existing with us.  The notion that somehow if we just hide inside our homes for a few months that the virus will be eradicated is just nonsense.  As soon as you resume normal activities, the someone with the virus will start to spread it again, and the cycle will start over. 

 

If we do not reach herd immunity through vaccination, there will be virus spread. With herd immunity, if a new bad variant comes from India, it will be feasible to use contact tracing to squelch the outbreak.

4 hours ago, Excel said:

Too late again

350.000 cases in a day......did you expect any Indian given a holiday pass in thailand

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

However they still die, Thailand with its low death rate has still had young cases dying, a young pregnant girl just a few days ago, and others.

Ok we want to search for the SINGLE CASE over billions of official data recorded in one year.

Ok. Also lightening strike in the same place more than two times.

2 minutes ago, Tech65 said:

Ok we want to search for the SINGLE CASE over billions of official data recorded in one year.

Ok. Also lightening strike in the same place more than two times.

Its not a single case, take a look at the recent records here in Thailand I'm not doing it for you, you said no cases under 55, simply not true even in Thailand. 

 

If you're referring to the world then I also suggest you actually check before making claims

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

Yes and on average 9% of the world gets the flu each year. Will the vaccines help - yes. But will they entirely prevent the disease - not likely and until the new strain is identified and a new vaccine is formulated, produced and the world reinoculated the disease will just spread again.  Just exactly like the flu does each and every year. 

We have to greatly increase capacity to produce mRNA vaccines plus improve the infrastructure for administering jabs. 

6 minutes ago, Tech65 said:

Asymptomatics aren't covid 19 sick people, are perfectly healthy people. They have only a presence of microparticles of virus. PCR is also very unreliable, and tests done one after the other give different results.

 

Covid syntoms are fever, sore throat etc.. That is the moment when you get sick and need Immediate treatment.  

But asymptomatic cases can transmit the virus and not even know it.

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

And wouldn't stop the asymptomatic from spreading the virus around even more, helping to fill even more hospital beds.

 

All in all, Thailand has done OK with regards to the virus.  Just screwed up big time with this Songkran debacle.

Asymptomatics (False Positives) don't spread a virus. 

 

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Perhaps if you checked your research before making wild claims then you would have a little more credibility

Definition of asymptomatic : not causing, marked by, or presenting with signs or symptoms of infection, illness, or disease asymptomatic carriers of contagious disease Acute infection is usually asymptomatic, making early diagnosis difficult.

 

 

 

There is not need to insult. I am talking gently and politely.

2 minutes ago, Tech65 said:

Definition of asymptomatic : not causing, marked by, or presenting with signs or symptoms of infection, illness, or disease asymptomatic carriers of contagious disease Acute infection is usually asymptomatic, making early diagnosis difficult.

 

 

 

There is not need to insult. I am talking gently and politely.

I'm perfectly aware of the meaning of asymptomatic, I think since covid, the majority of the planet is, so the actual point of this dictionary lesson? In light of the fact that PCR detects the virus in an asymptomatic and a patient with this can spread it.

12 minutes ago, Bkktodd said:

350.000 cases in a day......did you expect any Indian given a holiday pass in thailand

Not sure I understand your comment. But if in the last week  I wonder how many Indians have arrived here and it will only need 1 to carry that new mutation. Of course 350,000 per day  is high but there are rather a lot of them but even if you pro-rata that, which is not scientifically sound, it would mean Thailand is looking at a potential of  more than 20,000 + per day. Perhaps that is why the army trucks have now been called in ?

45 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Not stronger, different.  Some years the flu is more prevalent and has a higher mortality rate, others lower  If vaccines were truly effective 9% of the world would not get the flu each year.  Even assuming Covid is less likely to spread than the flu, if 1% of the world gets Covid that is 77 million people.  Can common sense measures be employed, and those most at risk take extra precautions yes.  However thinking that just a few more months of lockdowns is the solution is foolhardy.  It is 100% certain that the economy already weak will cause long term harm to millions of people with the likelihood being that once the lock down ends that the virus will start the cycle of spreading again.  

 

The mRNA vaccines are truly effective. Actually there are a lot of mutations, but variants that win out over the existing are not too many, and most current variants are controlled by these vaccines, besides which Pfizer and Moderna are preparing boosters, just in case, or to administer whenever the protection of the vaccination fades, hopefully not too soon. 

 

 Here in Thailand we are just seeing the B.1.1.7 taking over, and it will surely affect a good deal of the population due to Songkran and precautions taken too late. With lockdowns, it's all about timing.

 

However, selective measures, such as closing or limiting certain businesses where superspreaders are likely to do their business makes a lot of sense. 

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'm perfectly aware of the meaning of asymptomatic, I think since covid, the majority of the planet is, so the actual point of this dictionary lesson? In light of the fact that PCR detects the virus in an asymptomatic and a patient with this can spread it.

I am confused. You'r attacking me for the PCR?

Do you know the principle of PCR?

What did I say wrong? 

  

 

 

"Perhaps if you checked your research before making wild claims then you would have a little more credibility"

50 minutes ago, johnmcc6 said:

routinely putting people in hospital even with no symptoms is crazy. No wonder they are running out of beds. Pack them in  then watch cases fly. Lock downs don't work. As of noon today recovery rates in Thailand were were at 99.6% and deaths at point 04 %. Google Thailand virus stats and get to the hour reports. Stop the bloody panic.

to be clear i used duck duck go and asked for Thailand virus stats

2 hours ago, smedly said:

that is like pointing the finger at the UK which is incorrect, the strain was discovered in the UK because they have extensive means to discover such things - arguably the best in the world, did it actually originate in the UK - nobody can say for sure, what we do know is that variants (mutations) are popping up all over the world, lets not for get the fact that the original virus cane out of China ..................................... either accidently or on purpose - the jury is still out on that one, I have my own thoughts 

You seem to want it both ways.

 

Claiming there is no way to know that B.1.1.7 originated in the UK (it did by the way)

 

But claim to be sure that the Wuhan strain came from China.

 

I will take a wild guess that you are from the UK? And definitely not from China. 

I like to call a spade a spade. We now have a South African, an Indian double mutation strain and a Brazilian strain.

 

However, your B1.1.7 strain is "arguably the best in the world"

4 minutes ago, Tech65 said:

I am confused. You'r attacking me for the PCR?

Do you know the principle of PCR?

What did I say wrong? 

  

 

 

"Perhaps if you checked your research before making wild claims then you would have a little more credibility"

I'm going to leave you to it, hijacking the tread with a lack of basic facts is unhelpful