Thailand’s third COVID-19 wave has already peaked: CCSA

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Hold your horses!

 

It's around 3,000 deaths per day which, given the size of the Indian population, is roughly the same as the 800 daily deaths in the US, and less than the 300 daily deaths in France.

That was a couple of days ago, its now well over 3.5k a day deaths and increasing daily but hey lets not concern ourselves eh, we can always compare it to developed countries with their healthcare advantage

[dinsdale]

Please somone show me the daily testing numbers. I can't find them.  Hopefully we are not back to the don't test don't tell scenario. Sure hospital presentations but how many are not going. Where is true mass testing. Without this it will just keep spiking or bubbling along or swept under the carpet. Vaccines, well there's another problem. There is the leader of a coup running things. A pseudo dictator. Believe if you will.

Edited April 30, 2021 by dinsdale

[terryofcrete]

10 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Thank goodness. All hail the Covid Czar.

 

in only a matter of days since taking singular control of all matters covid he has reversed the advance of the virus in Thailand .... 

All hail indeed ! 

[bluedoc]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

“The peak was on April 24 and it is stabilizing downwards,” said CCSA spokesperson Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin

What a load of rubbish. Less testing equals less Covid patients. By order of the man in charge. Just manipulating figures to make himself look good. The man is a fool.

[tribalfusion001]

1 hour ago, retsdon said:

Thailand has a test rate of 3,000 per million people. The UK by comparison has a rate of 2,067,509 per million (2 tests per head).

 

no prizes for guessing who will find the most cases.

It's 116,000 per one million according to worldometers up from 17,000 just over a month ago. 3rd larger wave due to increased testing.

[Rookiescot]

10 minutes ago, polpott said:

During the first wave, I didn't hear of 1 person who contracted Covid in Pattaya. During this current wave I know several people personally who have contracted Covid, thankfully none have died. Its considerably more prevalent now than it has been before.

 

Possibly because its a different variant? 

[richard_smith237]

53 minutes ago, wealthychef said:

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The number of cases peaked which is somewhat irrelevant and only related to the amount of testing.

 

 

Sorry but you couldn't be more wrong. Think.  If there are no cases, you can test at 100% and find no infections. If you have more cases, you will discover more of them with the same amount of tests.  In fact, while the number of cases is limited by not doing enough testing, if you test enough you can get a confidence which testing more will not improve.  In other words, the number of cases is related by by the amount of testing and the number of sick people.  If anything become  irrelevant with a fixed number of tests, it's the number of tests!  This trope needs to die.  

 

Agreed with ’no cases’ scenario, but the rest of the logic is flawed when testing is not random and in low numbers. 

 

If a random proportion of the population is tested in large numbers, i.e. 100,000 people per day and record 1,500 positive cases and do this each day, you see a natural pattern emerging (we also have to be cautious of false positives. i.e. test each positive case twice to eradicate or vastly reduce the incidence of false psostxives which could be as high as 4% according to the Lancet)

 

If test only occurs on people who ‘want a test’ because they think they have been exposed, have been told they have been exposed then we see increased numbers but its not truly representative of the population.

 

Another facet is that if people are told they will have to go to a  ‘field isolation’ facility, fewer will want to be tested - thus the numbers become distorted by human factors and the figures will no longer be a representative indication of the out break such that its impossible to tell if a virus has peaked or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sambum]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Could easily be that the possibility of being detained in a field hospital puts the fear of God into everyone and they comply with Covid mandates.

To be quite honest, my wife (and most of her friends) are terrified of catching Covid, and the fear of having to go into  a "field hospital" also compounds that situation. Hence, a year ago, most people were "sticking to the rules", and Covid infections were very low. In contrast, in the UK, "raves" were allowed to happen and the police seemed to be able to do nothing about large social gatherings, where people seemed to think that there was nothing to worry about - "It's just the flu - it happens every year!" Hence the astronomical figures in the UK compared to Thailand.

 

This year, in Thailand, instead of "postponing" or "banning" Songkran, the PM in his "wisdom" decided to let the Thai people travel freely backward and forwards to their homes to celebrate and pay merit with their families - the result (IMO) seems to be an alarming increase in infections. (OK, maybe a fish market had something to do with it)

 

Still, the PM and Deputy PM (Health Minister/Engineer) have had it under control all along, so there's nothing to worry about  - is there? 

Edited April 30, 2021 by sambum

[polpott]

1 minute ago, Rookiescot said:

 

Possibly because its a different variant? 

The so called UK variant is 1.5 times more virulent than the original Covid. Enough to make a difference but not as much difference as that which we are currently seeing.

[joecoolfrog]

54 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

I have been in the UK throughout the pandemic and we have had a great many infections and deaths , though the later are very likely overstated.

However our hospitals have not been overflowing , undertakers have not been rushed off their feet and I only know ( slightly ) one person who had died from covid.

The levels of testing have been abysmal in Thailand and consequently the data means very little , only a fool would draw conclusions from the recorded numbers .

In the UK , where a million tests a day are being done and getting on for half the population is vaccinated , we are lifting restrictions and cautiously optimistic.

In Thailand the testing and vaccination levels are a disgrace , guesswork is the order of the day ,yet it is claimed that the peak of infections has passed !!

Given that currently restrictions ( lockdowns effectively ) are being racheted up , I find that claim a tad unlikely , dont you ?

[ThailandRyan]

3 hours ago, Petey11 said:

Thai authorities need to package and sell their secret formula to defeating all strains of covid. One of the few countries in the world who can contain the UK variant in such a short time with no major restrictions. TIT, well done.

Yes 6 weeks from the start to the end, just magnificent work they are doing.  The rest of the world must truly be in awe.

[GroveHillWanderer]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

That was a couple of days ago, its now well over 3.5k a day deaths and increasing daily but hey lets not concern ourselves eh, we can always compare it to developed countries with their healthcare advantage

The reply from Brunolem was to someone claiming that there were "hundreds of thousands" dying every day in India.

 

3.5k is bad, but it's still an awfully long way from hundreds of thousands.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

The hospitals are definitely full here. What Thailand are you looking at?

[polpott]

1 minute ago, joecoolfrog said:

However our hospitals have not been overflowing , undertakers have not been rushed off their feet and I only know ( slightly ) one person who had died from covid.

My daughter and her husband work in UK hospitals and would completely disagree with you. 3 people known to me personally, have died from Covid.

[riclag]

good news! fingers crossed for the all out vaccinations of those who need or want it , before a 4th wave comes !

Edited April 30, 2021 by riclag

[edwardandtubs]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Why has South East Asia been impacted less severely ??? - this is a big question, I believe the answer comes down to an evolved immunity and genetics (i.e. South East asians have 4 specific missing genes which are prevalent in those who suffered severely with Covid-19 - This theory is referenced in the paper linked below).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3_reference.pdf

 

 

Interesting theory but I don't think genetics has anything to do with it. Asians in Western countries are actually more likely to catch and die from covid-19. And as far as I'm aware Westerners living in Thailand are not more likely to catch or die from it. So it's more likely to be the heat and humidity and perhaps also exposure to Dengue as a result of mosquito bites.

Edited April 30, 2021 by edwardandtubs

[natway09]

It is because the ordinsry Thai is sh,,,,,t scared of catching it & having to go into a field hospital that have been shown relentlessy on free TV

The HI SO's of course are a different kettle of fish & nobody "tells me what to do"

hence the 4th wave coming about the end of May. Arrogant Barstewards

[Rookiescot]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The hospitals are definitely full here. What Thailand are you looking at?

 

The hospitals in Thailand are always full. Its been like that ever since I first started coming here.

But they are not overflowing which they would be if covid was running rampant as some suspect.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

By all accounts and reports, there are still plenty of general hospital beds available in Thailand.

 

What they're running short of are critical care and air isolation beds to treat seriously ill COVID patients.

 

This was a report from the MoPH today on Bangkok hospital bed occupancy by bed type up through April 28:

 

 

Hospitals in Bangkok are not full. 

[richard_smith237]

5 minutes ago, polpott said:

8 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

However our hospitals have not been overflowing , undertakers have not been rushed off their feet and I only know ( slightly ) one person who had died from covid.

My daughter and her husband work in UK hospitals and would completely disagree with you. 3 people known to me personally, have died from Covid.

 

This is where the information is somewhat misleading... 

 

Your daughter and her husband work in ‘A’ UK hospital....  not UK hospitals, unless they work in lots of different hospitals and have done so throughout the pandemic. 

 

It would be interesting to learn if the specific hospital your daughter and her husband work at had to turn any serious covid-19 patients away because they were ‘overflowing’....  i.e. have their ICU beds and high dependency units been fully at any point ????

 

I also know of a person who died from Covid-19 he was heavily overweight and had major issues - While Covid-19 undoubtedly tipped the scales, its questionable as to weather or not he would have lasted another 2 years in his current state. 

 

I required hospital treatment in the UK in July (not for Covid-19) - I was amazed at how eerily quiet the hospital was. 

 

The point I wish to make with the above comments is that anecdotal information while interesting is not representative of the bigger picture. 

 

Another fact I observed on the UK BBC news last August is that at maximum occupancy the ICU beds were at 30%, under normal conditions ICU beds are at 15% - BUT, this figure is averaged across the country and there could be Fulham and Broadway hospital at 90% occupancy while Exeter or Telford ICU occupancy is at 3%. 

 

 

Thus, any information and data needs to be presented ‘wholly’ without anecdote or snippets removed to suit our confirmation bias.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

57 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

people will stay at home and die there, will not show at the hospitals, hence the improbable low numbers

Just watched the afternoon news on TNN 16, showed them pulling two dead bodies from a house they said were covid related, everyone in PPE's and the entire mooban being sanitized and sprayed.  

[PGSan]

3 hours ago, poskat said:

lets see what the virus has to say about it rather than wishful government officials

Wishful or wistful?

[edwardandtubs]

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just watched the afternoon news on TNN 16, showed them pulling two dead bodies from a house they said were covid related, everyone in PPE's and the entire mooban being sanitized and sprayed.  

That just illustrates how nonsensical it is to suggest that loads of people are dying of covid-19 and it's not being recorded. Clearly it's big news when somebody does die of covid-19 in their house and the authorities deal with it very seriously. The numbers thankfully are very low though.

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

 

The hospitals in Thailand are always full. Its been like that ever since I first started coming here.

But they are not overflowing which they would be if covid was running rampant as some suspect.

Then why are the numbers in the hospitals for Covid rising and beds scarce for those needing treatment, and field hospitals and Hopitels filling up with folks.  General wards are for treatment of other than Covid .  The Covid patients number in the many of thousands as well as hundreds of those those in the ICU and then there are the few hundred of those on respirators, guess it is all smoke and mirrors.  Dream another dream and pinch yourself to wake up to the true reality.

Covid-19 patients in Bangkok sent to other provinces due to overcrowded hospitals | Thaiger (thethaiger.com)

Edited April 30, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[PGSan]

6 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

The point I wish to make with the above comments is that anecdotal information while interesting is not representative of the bigger picture. 

 

A good point, but it was surrounded by your own idle speculations and many anecdotes! 

Edited April 30, 2021 by PGSan

[GroveHillWanderer]

23 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

However our hospitals have not been overflowing , undertakers have not been rushed off their feet and I only know ( slightly ) one person who had died from covid.

Hospitals in the UK may not have been completely overflowing like they are in India at the moment but they were very close to it at times.

 

My daughter has been working with CoVid-19 patents in critical care in an NHS hospital since the pandemic began and she and her colleagues were almost completely overwhelmed at times. At one point she was working 12-14 hour shifts for two weeks straight without a day off.

 

Also, as stated in the article below:

 

Quote

In the week to 31 January, 18 of the 140 relevant acute trusts were running at 99% capacity or more, with 15 at full capacity.

 

No free critical care beds in 15 NHS Trusts

Edited April 30, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Hospitals in Bangkok are not full. 

a true denier of facts and stats.  I guess the reports on the news and in the papers is all fake.

Covid-19 patients in Bangkok sent to other provinces due to overcrowded hospitals | Thaiger (thethaiger.com)

Edited April 30, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Pattaya Spotter]

The numbers certainly seem to bear this out. Maybe soon we'll start seeing an exponential decline in new infections. 

[edwardandtubs]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Then why are the numbers in the hospitals for Covid rising and beds scarece for those needing treatment, and field hospitals and Hopitels filling up with folks.  General wards are for treatment of other than Covid .  The Covid patients number in the many of thousands as well as hundreds of those those in the ICU and then there are the few hundred of those on respirators, guess it is all smoke and mirrors.  Dream another dream and pinch yourself to wake up to the true reality.

The reason for that is that unlike most of the countries every covid-19 case is admitted to hospital. I think the point he was making was that there's no big cover-up as some people suggest. The figures for covid-19 admissions and those in ICU are accurate and don't show some hidden crisis on the scale of India.

[GrandPapillon]

46 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

 

Why would someone dying of covid bring shame?

it's Thailand, they see shame in about everything that is not ordinary