COVID-19: Thailand reports new daily record of 53 deaths; 4,786 new cases

[wensiensheng]

5 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

In Yala, and the other Infected Southern Provinces its the South African Variant ( Beta ), which apparently is just as bad, if not worse than Delta Variant ( Indian )

It appears to be the Delta Variant that is causing so much pain and anguish in Indonesia. It is 60 % more transmissible that the Alpha Variant, and becomes rampant very quickly.

I really hope that we dont get the Gamma Variant here in Thailand ( Brazilian Variant ) as its very bad indeed.

Just to clarify, I don’t think it’s exclusively beta in Yala. They have cases for sure, but I think alpha and delta can be found also. I can’t find any source to confirm that, but I think it would be the case.

[Cake Monster]

24 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Not just in BKK after the exodus of workers from the workers camps. 

And not just the Workers from the Camps.

Bangkokians are also running away from the treat and seeking shelter ( as they see it ) from potential Covid Infection.

Not all the blame can be squarely placed at the feet of Migrant Workers.

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Not only with Sinovac you see Israel with the new delta variant all vaccines are ineffective for 40%

 

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

 

Your link is very old and refers to the Alpha strain not delta. Its also nothing at all to do with vaccine effectiveness

 

"Coronavirus: 30-40% of infected Israelis have the UK strain - Nachman Ash"

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF   

JANUARY 19, 2021 15:48

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[dinsdale]

4 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

So if case counts are highly understated and there is significantly higher community transmission than reported, but death counts are generally broadly accurate (easier to track), then what does that say about how dangerous Covid actually is? ????

 

Questions for Plato.

Ask someone with long covid or being intubated and I think you would get your answer.

Edited June 30, 2021 by dinsdale

[Cake Monster]

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Just to clarify, I don’t think it’s exclusively beta in Yala. They have cases for sure, but I think alpha and delta can be found also. I can’t find any source to confirm that, but I think it would be the case.

You are probably correct, its just I read that it was the Beta and nothing about the other Variants

[mtls2005]

Without an insight into testing methodology one can only look at the trends.

 

Breaking out above 4,000 on the 7-day average is a bad sign.

 

 

[ICELANDMAN]

22 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Experts around the world are looking currently at the experience in Australia.

Their numbers are extremely low and have been able to track and trace at a level impossible when the outbreaks are widespread. 

I think posters might find it interesting to Google such as "fleeting contact for covid delta strain Australia" 

Many easy to watch YouTube presentations from experts worldwide.

This is one nasty beast.

 

Jerusalem Post is not Facebook  https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

[DrJack54]

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

The specific numbers are perhaps meaningless in the sense that they are inaccurate, but I feel it’s still possible to read into them to the extent that some trends can be identified.

I agree. For some reason (don't know why) I often look at the Chonburi table (as posted above by Bkk Brian).

Notice that from approx June 16 the numbers changed. 50 positives per day thing of the past. Now consistently 150+

Edited June 30, 2021 by DrJack54

[smedly]

24 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Exactly.  The whole reporting seems to be meaningless and I would think most people now just ignore it, and will do so until it affects them personally.

posted this before but will again

 

I would rather see accurate information rather than lies and deflection, I want to know exactly what is going on especially where I live 

 

- actual infection numbers

- number of tests done

- what variants

 

etc etc 

 

But no, this government somehow thinks that hiding the numbers makes them look good - it doesn't, it just makes people angry and makes them look like fools, people need to know what is going on with accurate information and I don't mean when a new park is opening in Bangkok

 

and on another note - has Anutin been sacked ?

[Cake Monster]

22 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

If these cases are spreading as they are, how does Phuket not have any cases or so few? They must not test, and if true, then the Sandbox scheme will be a true mess in 15 days.  Hold onto your seats boys and girls, a turbulent rocky ride is upon us.  At the immigration center now on Lat Prao with the GF and what usely would have been a garage filled with people is nearly empty....migrant workers have definitely fled or been locked down.

Stay safe

[The Cipher]

5 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Ask someone with long covid or being intubated and I think you would get your answer.

 

I mean, I guess that sounds scary without context.

 

But then I run the math...

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, ICELANDMAN said:

 

Jerusalem Post is not Facebook  https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/40-percent-of-coronavirus-stricken-israelis-infected-with-uk-strain-nachman-ash-655957

Completely unrelated to what I posted.

 

[smedly]

26 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

False

 

Read TallGuyjohninbkk post from yesterday for a good summary

 

"Fortunately or unfortunately, as the case may be, it sounds like the Delta variant from India is likely to become predominant in Thailand in the future after overtaking the current leading Alpha / UK variant.

 

And the study data coming out of the UK regarding the AZ vaccine and the Delta variant seems to be pretty good -- 92% effective in preventing hospitalizations and no deaths two weeks after the second dose, and 60% effective against symptomatic infection.

 

Regarding the AZ vaccine and the Alpha variant from the UK, the data thus far is showing 66-70% effective in preventing symptomatic disease, and as yet unpublished data showing 86% reduction in hospitalizations and no deaths.

 

Unfortunately, the BHF website hasn't pulled in the same kinds of effectiveness data regarding either the Sinovac or Sinopharm vaccines from China in terms of the various virus variant strains."

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1222037-thailand-reports-4662-new-covid-19-cases-36-more-deaths/page/6/?tab=comments#comment-16609274

 

I read somewhere yesterday that a 3rd dose of AZ also improves these figures dramatically so we could see recomendation changing from 2 doses to 3 doses for full protection, the 2 dose program was based on the original virus months ago, no reason why that won't change to 3 with the introduction of these new variants, I expect that to happen soon

[dinsdale]

20 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

I mean, I guess that sounds scary without context.

 

But then I run the math...

Run the maths as much as you like. Almost 4,000,000 people have died in 18 months. There's some context. Feel free to reduce this down to a percentage but at the end of the day these people's lives have been cut short by Covid-19. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by dinsdale

[smedly]

15 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

But then I run the math..

did you run the math for India

[ThailandRyan]

33 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

So you mean 90 day reports for migrant workers?

I was under the impression that they are always packed?

Yes. They normally are packed and it had taken 3 to 4 hours before. Today it was fairly empty. Wonder why, nope we know that answer.  She was informed she can now do it by mail.

 

[GeorgeCross]

35 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

And not just the Workers from the Camps.

Bangkokians are also running away from the treat and seeking shelter ( as they see it ) from potential Covid Infection.

Not all the blame can be squarely placed at the feet of Migrant Workers.

 

my brother in law has just returned to Udon after his factory closed following all the migrant staff doing a runner at the weekend! they got spooked and collectively decided not to chance being locked in lol.

 

he's not complaining as all the Thai workers got a healthy severance package but he did say the problem is widespread (and under reported)

 

 

[Macrohistory]

34 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

I mean, I guess that sounds scary without context.

 

But then I run the math...

 

Sounds like you know things that nobody else knows!

 

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

Sounds like you know things that nobody else knows!

 

Nup.

[The Cipher]

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

13 minutes ago, smedly said:

did you run the math for India

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

22 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Run the maths as much as you like. Almost 4,000,000 people have died in 18 months. There's some context. Feel free to reduce this down to a percentage but at the end of the day these people's lives have been cut short by Covid-19. 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

[dinsdale]

Just now, The Cipher said:

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

You do. You see numbers whereas I see people. 

[Blumpie]

Between the sandbox scheme and all this going on, I think it's time to write a musical about this pandemic.

Maybe call it The Smiling Pandemic?  

Pandemic Of Lost Brains?

Its too hot to think.   

[DrJack54]

3 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

Oh a 1% er.

 

[robblok]

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Exactly.  The whole reporting seems to be meaningless and I would think most people now just ignore it, and will do so until it affects them personally.

But we don't ignore the number as we know they can be higher. But what they disclose shows an upward trend. Also the number affect us personally as lockdowns and such are based on them. But i cant say that im anymore afraid then when it was in the 2000's. 

 

I mainly self isolate but i do have friends over to my home gym to train who have more contacts so its a risk. But to totally stop everything in my limited social life is boring.

[Cake Monster]

5 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

my brother in law has just returned to Udon after his factory closed following all the migrant staff doing a runner at the weekend! they got spooked and collectively decided not to chance being locked in lol.

 

he's not complaining as all the Thai workers got a healthy severance package but he did say the problem is widespread (and under reported)

 

 

Many Factories will close due to the Staff vacating their workplaces in rapid order.

Two issue seem to strike me from this.

The first is . Are all those such as your BIL tested and clear, or are some of them going to spread the Love back to their Families.

The second. With being under reported this was to be expected.

Government officials do not want the problem to grow, and they certainly do not want the Customers of those Factories taking their Business elsewhere, while frantically trying to find another factory, or Two to fulfill existing Orders.

If these Factories are heavily involved in Exports, this could cause a very real problem for the Government, who only today have stated that some of the financial slack created by the loss of Tourists was being taken up by the Factory output..

[robblok]

11 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

That is because you and many others who seem to think its not so bad forget 2 things:

- That there are probably loads of deaths contributed to lung disease who are not tested for covid. People will stay home to avoid being locked up and not everyone is tested when they die. They just don't do that to keep the numbers low.

- Long covid and the other problems stemming from covid a horrible stay in a hospital while feeling really bad for weeks isnt counted.

 

I am not sure why people always seem to think so binary and only count deaths not the suffering and long revalidation of people, the loss of lung function. That is like saying hey you had cancer but because they took your testicles and your now healthy cancer is not such a problem because you survived. Discounting the suffering and permanent damage to the body as that is supposedly not bad.

 

People like you should do some research into long covid, i seen plenty of reports about it in the Dutch press its up to 10%. That makes it a totally different ball game.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

The specific numbers are perhaps meaningless in the sense that they are inaccurate, but I feel it’s still possible to read into them to the extent that some trends can be identified. Whether up or down, spread to provinces outside the Bangkok core group and in particular, the percentage of delta cases.

 

but in terms of a specific number each day, you are right, that is meaningless.

I think you can safely add at least one zero to the reported numbers when proper testing is being done then double that number for true numbers reported in Thailand.

[smedly]

10 minutes ago, robblok said:

That there are probably loads of deaths contributed to lung disease who are not tested for covid. People will stay home to avoid being locked up and not everyone is tested when they die

posted many times before - the only deaths in Thailand that are certified by a doctor are thos that happen in Hospital or those that are being attended to by a doctor, the vast majority of deaths in Thailand are not officially certified "by a doctor" unless of course there has been a crime involved

 

in the west every death must be signed off by a medical professional - no exception

[The Cipher]

5 minutes ago, robblok said:

- That there are probably loads of deaths contributed to lung disease who are not tested for covid. People will stay home to avoid being locked up and not everyone is tested when they die. They just don't do that to keep the numbers low.

 

Death rates are likely to be broadly more accurate than case counts for a transmissible disease with a base case of asymptomatic.

 

Actual counts for deaths and cases are probably both higher than published counts, but the likelihood is that completely accurate figures would actually make Covid look less lethal than the published figures.

 

9 minutes ago, robblok said:

- Long covid and the other problems stemming from covid a horrible stay in a hospital while feeling really bad for weeks isnt counted.

 

Hospital stay and short term symptoms are unfortunate, but are generally noise.

 

I don't have enough info to respond to long Covid. A quick Wikipedia search suggests that it's possible that nobody has enough info to respond at this time.

---

Nobody ever wins a debate on the internet, and I don't expect to win any converts. But in the midst of all the panic mongering going on here these days, I felt compelled to provide a reasoned contrarian comment.

[Misty]

52 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Sorry, day job's gotten really busy, so apologies if I write in bullet points or short form.

 

 

Yes. Will do the math for you.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India Covid deaths: ~400k.

 

400,000 deaths/1,300,000,000 pop = 0.0003.

 

India pop: ~1.3B.

India 2020 pop growth rate: ~1%

1,300,000,000*.01 = 13,000,000.

 

For fun let's assume every single Covid death was an additional net death that detracts from pop growth.

13,000,000-400,000 = net population change of +12,600,000.

 

Ladies and gents, the dreaded DeltΔ Variant.

 

 

No disagreement here. I just see the problem from a different perspective and with a different sense of scale than most on TVF seem to.

 

Can't really do the math when you don't really have the numbers.

 

We talk to people in India regularly.  Unfortunately they say the "reported death numbers" are a fraction of reality.  Apparently there's no way the limited testing/lab capacity could keep up with all the deaths - even in the relatively wealthy areas. Wide-spread poverty also means few could afford to test even if there was capacity. The reality - in good times-  is that most people die in India without death certificates showing cause of death due to the cost and bureaucratic hurdles of obtaining one.  And now our contacts say the problem has spread to the rural areas - not even gov't officials in the big cities know what's happening there.

 

From NYT:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/india-covid-death-estimates.html