My /Your best Guess for Pattaya's re-opening

[MayBeNow]

21 hours ago, newnative said:

Lots of Bangkok cars on Beach Road this evening.

Covid greatly accelerates the shift from farang oriented (sex) tourism in Pattaya to Thai/domestic tourism and Chinese plus Indians tourists. Thats the fundamental shift visible for atleast a decade now.

My estimate is that at the most 50% of the bars and gogo's will survive the coming 12 months, never to come back. 

 

Pattaya will see domestic tourism but there wont be any significant number of non Thai tourism for the coming 12 months.

 

I hope i am wrong, its a great seedy place.

Edited July 11, 2021 by MayBeNow

[HashBrownHarry]

16 hours ago, Leaver said:

In theory, it can work. 

 

Fully vaccinate Phuket locals to 70%, seal off the island from the mainland, only accepting fully vaccinated international tourists via the airport. 

 

In effect, Phuket becomes a small version of what the world will be, post covid, but Phuket gets their earlier because being an island, they can enforce that only  vaccinated people can be on the island.    

 

Alas, the Thai's what their money now, and rushed it through, and didn't seal off the island from the mainland, which was just plain ridiculous.  

 

If they had more patience, and done it properly, it would have worked.  

It's been open a week and they've already had a + case.

 

This is with very little arrivals, do you think that's 'working'?

[Doctor Tom]

On 7/10/2021 at 10:07 AM, WineOh said:

At the current rate of the VAX rollout (2 doses) my best estimate is that everyone in country will be fully vaccinated within two years from now.

 

So normality shall resume immediately after the last man or woman has had their shot.

That presupposes that new variants, on which present vaccines are not very effective, will not continue to arrive and  that when they do, they will be effectively dealt with  using the present anti covid regimes.  That is a very big assumption, that recent history does not support. I do believe that we have not seen the half of what Covid will become in the next 12 to 18 months,  mainly for the older and most vulnerable in the World. 

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, jomtienisgood said:

I agree , in theory , just noting Australia is also an island and there also it doesn't work as planned.....

 

Not really a fair comparison.

 

Australia has a population of around 25 million people, Phuket has a population of around 80,000 people.  I gather this is registered Thai's, but I think many of the unregistered Thai's would have returned home.

 

70% of 80,000 is 56,000 people, and at two doses, that's only around 112,000 vaccines needed to get Phuket done.  Allowing for some unregistered Thai's on the island, and some migrant workers and expats, let's say 150,000 vaccines are needed.  It's a small number in the scheme of things.  A lot different to the millions needed by Australia.

 

The island of Phuket could have been easily and quickly done, and quarantined, never to close again, EVER. 

 

Like I said, a small version of what the world will be like, post covid, but a lot sooner for Phuket. 

 

Fully vaccinated international tourists could have come and gone from Phuket for their holidays, depending on flights, and their home country's returning requirements.  

 

Of course, covid would still rip through Phuket after this, as we are seeing in the UK, but no one, or a very small minority, would get very sick and / or die.  

 

There were 3 simple things that were needed for Phuket's success.

 

1.  70% of Phuketians fully vaccinated.

 

2.  Phuket island quarantined from the mainland.

 

3.  Only fully vaccinated tourists allowed in.

 

The Thai's couldn't even get these 3 simple things right.  So what hope for Thailand's tourism industry opening up sooner, rather than later, I would say slim, at best.  

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

It's not only Crossing by car.  Theres many fisherman coming over with migrant workers.

 

The biggest problem is Sinopharm and Sinovac.

Despite the Arab man having two shots he still got COVID-19.  On top of that two of his children got it.

 

Singapore isn't letting people that use two vaccinations of Sinovac as proof anymore to enter.  

They can put a road block on the bridge.  The Thai Navy can patrol the usual sea transport routes.  The word would soon get around not to bother trying.  

 

I accept Sinovac and Sinopharm are not as efficient as mRNA vaccines, and AZ.  However, that's the vaccine that the Thai government have elected to give most of the Thai population, and that's the risk profile the Thai people will get, not just in Phuket, but for most of Thailand. 

 

The Thai government's poor choice of vaccine is for another thread.  

 

Even Pfizer is only 95% efficiency, so some people will still get very sick, and some of those people may still die from covid.  

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

It's been open a week and they've already had a + case.

 

This is with very little arrivals, do you think that's 'working'?

 

No.  See my other posts.  The way the Thai government implemented it was wrong, particularly allowing domestic tourism.   

[cjinchiangrai]

On 7/10/2021 at 10:12 AM, Skallywag said:

Keep up with the forum people.  Pattaya Mayor already gave the answer 2 days ago...end of speculation. 

Might as well close this thread now

????

Peace

 

Not a chance. The mayor does not make that decision, the CCSA does. Until Chon Buri sees vaccination rates near 70% it is not happening. They are struggling in Phuket, they are not going to look foolish again by rushing Pattaya.

[The Hammer2021]

It will never be the same again. It's finished.

[pomchop]

I highly doubt Pattaya will forever be a ghost town and business will all dry up and blow away in the wind .  Yes a lot will go under never to return but history has shown that one man's biz failure most often is someone else's opportunity.  One bar disappears and is replaced by another one that may be better or worse.  One store closes and a new one opens.  One condo owner loses all and someone gets a bargain.  One bar gal returns to isaan never to return but is replaced by another one who sees opportunity where another sees disaster.

 

How many businesses have come and gone in Thailand or other countries around the world over the last few decades?  

 

Rumors of pattaya's death are greatly exaggerated as Mark Twain might have paraphrased when he was widely reported to be dead.

 

It will take time but check Pattaya in a few years and i suspect it will be once again booming.  Yes lots of pain and loss for some but lots of gain and baht for others.

[hobobo]

On 7/10/2021 at 9:38 AM, sucit said:

It won’t ever fully reopen and recover

It will recover and reopen, but it will never be the Pattaya we knew and loved since the 1970s 

[Leaver]

51 minutes ago, pomchop said:

I highly doubt Pattaya will forever be a ghost town and business will all dry up and blow away in the wind .  Yes a lot will go under never to return but history has shown that one man's biz failure most often is someone else's opportunity.  One bar disappears and is replaced by another one that may be better or worse.  One store closes and a new one opens.  One condo owner loses all and someone gets a bargain.  One bar gal returns to isaan never to return but is replaced by another one who sees opportunity where another sees disaster.

 

How many businesses have come and gone in Thailand or other countries around the world over the last few decades?  

 

Rumors of pattaya's death are greatly exaggerated as Mark Twain might have paraphrased when he was widely reported to be dead.

 

It will take time but check Pattaya in a few years and i suspect it will be once again booming.  Yes lots of pain and loss for some but lots of gain and baht for others.

 

I agree, Pattaya will bounce back, but it may not be the Pattaya they we knew, pre covid.  

 

Pattaya wasn't doing well with western tourism before covid.  After an initial rush back by those who have been locked out due to covid, numbers will still be down when compared to past years for businesses.  

 

It's possible many businesses catering to westerners will struggle many years after covid has finished, as they were struggling even before covid hit.    

[bestie]

Covid should be a clear warning shot for many business owners. If one day Covid is under "control" the next virus is ready to come sooner or later. Thailand with close to 40Million tourists a year before covid was far from "normal". I wish they would overthink their whole tourist industry instead of trying to bring all these tourists back as soon as possible and get back to start and playing the game again. I hope it will never come back to what people called "normal" but I think in a year or two people will have forget it until the next virus kills maybe more of us all. Life has to go on right.   

Edited July 11, 2021 by bestie

[jacko45k]

16 hours ago, Tony125 said:

If both they and their customers are fully vacccinated with Prime vaccines such as AZ, Pfizer, Moderna  and not the Sinocrap  there should be no problem.

Well they  can still get infected and hence be part of a spread....but all parties fully vaccinated is the best scenario and the ultimate target. Nowhere else to go if that doesn't work.......

Oh for the opportunity......

[scorecard]

On 7/10/2021 at 2:32 PM, Mickeymaus said:

I think that Pattaya will be special again and that it will be opened partially in September (as announced by the mayor) and even more in October. Perhaps they make sandboxes in the Walking Street, Soi 6, Soi Buakhao and some beach zones or even the complete Pattaya City area to attract enough quality tourists. These quality tourists focus on the main attractions here in Pattaya and should be extremely happy especially if the entertainment venues following the Covid restrictions to the utmost (as seen before when they were allowed to operate despite Covid) will be opened too. 

 

But it will need lots of discussions to decide/mark out the specific boundaries of the sand box, then 14 days of listen to the 'what about me' arguments etc., and final decisions.

 

And at the same time decide a very specific list of who can/cannot be inside the boundaries.

 

Then very serious policing to gain/ensure all concerned follow the rules with severe penalties, including severe penalties for business owners who don't 'police' their own patch.

 

Can that all work?

 

Seems to me there's several critical points, one of which is; Can both the central and local gov't people massively lift their communications capabilities/methods to ensure before and during the sand box period that everybody is very well informed of the boundaries and the penalties? And serious policing with serious fines.  

Edited July 11, 2021 by scorecard

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed

[kingstonkid]

The best Pattaya can hope for is that Domestic tourists come back at NYE. 

 

I do not see it getting back to the way it was ever. 

I think things are going to change.  Let's face it a lot of the bars on walking street were already complaining about lack of paying customers.

 

Pattaya is missing the boat due to the big money that own all the bars on the street.  

 

They had the right idea by rebuilding and rebranding but it seems to have died.

 

As to when the tourists will come back my guess would be at earliest NYE 2022 more likely in 2023.

 

 

[Leaver]

On 7/12/2021 at 11:05 AM, kingstonkid said:

I think things are going to change.  Let's face it a lot of the bars on walking street were already complaining about lack of paying customers.

At drink prices higher than many of the countries where the tourists came from, businesses on Walking Street had been struggling well before covid. 

 

The Thai landlords pushed the market over what tourists were prepared to pay, hence, the rise of LK Metro, Soi Baukhao, and post covid, possibly Tree Town. 

 

Over the next 5 to 10 years, as Walking Street fades away, the rents on LK Metro will rise to the same level, and the cycle will start again. 

 

In order for business owners to make some profit, they will move to another area with cheaper rents, and eventually that area will become a new enclave, just the way LK Metro and Soi Baukhao did.   We are seeing this now on Soi Boomerang.

 

 

On 7/12/2021 at 11:05 AM, kingstonkid said:

They had the right idea by rebuilding and rebranding but it seems to have died.

 

This was just smoke and mirrors. Those in power here know that sex is the biggest seller in Pattaya. Take the sex trade out of Pattaya, and most of Central Pattaya dies.  

[kingstonkid]

On 7/16/2021 at 6:41 PM, Leaver said:

At drink prices higher than many of the countries where the tourists came from, businesses on Walking Street had been struggling well before covid. 

 

The Thai landlords pushed the market over what tourists were prepared to pay, hence, the rise of LK Metro, Soi Baukhao, and post covid, possibly Tree Town. 

 

Over the next 5 to 10 years, as Walking Street fades away, the rents on LK Metro will rise to the same level, and the cycle will start again. 

 

In order for business owners to make some profit, they will move to another area with cheaper rents, and eventually that area will become a new enclave, just the way LK Metro and Soi Baukhao did.   We are seeing this now on Soi Boomerang.

 

 

 

This was just smoke and mirrors. Those in power here know that sex is the biggest seller in Pattaya. Take the sex trade out of Pattaya, and most of Central Pattaya dies.  

I agree that the sex trade is a big driver in tourism in Pats BUT as you yourself stated WS is in trouble because the trade has is moving.  There is actually no problem with Pattaya having 2 different tourism markets.

 

The beach should be a family area where dur9ing the day families can enjoy the area and have nice dinners and enjoy the beach and other tourist things.

 

WS is a disaster and slum during the harsh light of day.  

 

 

 

 

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

I agree that the sex trade is a big driver in tourism in Pats BUT as you yourself stated WS is in trouble because the trade has is moving.  There is actually no problem with Pattaya having 2 different tourism markets.

 

The beach should be a family area where dur9ing the day families can enjoy the area and have nice dinners and enjoy the beach and other tourist things.

 

WS is a disaster and slum during the harsh light of day.  

 

 

 

 

 

In my opinion, Walking Street is done.  The Thai landlords have outpriced it in the local market.  

 

If you were coming to Thailand for a beach holiday, why would you chose Pattaya beach when there are so many nicer beaches in the country?  

[wasabi]

Perhaps it will go back to being a sleepy fishing village?

 

 

[kingstonkid]

56 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

In my opinion, Walking Street is done.  The Thai landlords have outpriced it in the local market.  

 

If you were coming to Thailand for a beach holiday, why would you chose Pattaya beach when there are so many nicer beaches in the country?  

Pattaya has a lot to offer and is not that far from BKK.  Personally living in Rangsit I enjoy a weekend at Pats and no it h as nothing to do with the ladies as i take the GF with me.

I understand though that one of my favorite places the navy look out has changed with out the coffee shops so that is now off the list.

[Leaver]

8 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

Pattaya has a lot to offer and is not that far from BKK.  Personally living in Rangsit I enjoy a weekend at Pats and no it h as nothing to do with the ladies as i take the GF with me.

I understand though that one of my favorite places the navy look out has changed with out the coffee shops so that is now off the list.

 

You are an expat, do you think tourists also share your view on Pattaya?

 

You mentioned coming to Pattaya for the beach.  Do you think a tourist on a 2 week holiday would chose Pattaya Beach over many of the other nicer beaches in Thailand?  

[The Hammer2021]

Pattaya, as we knew it will never open again. It's finished as a full on party resort.

[Leaver]

41 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Pattaya, as we knew it will never open again. It's finished as a full on party resort.

I disagree.

 

I think Pattaya will return to being a party town, but, in my opinion, it's going to take years, well after the borders open again.  

[Bohemianfish]

November 2022. Herd immunity may be achieved by then. Reason being a lot of Thai people are afraid to get vaccinated. 

[Bohemianfish]

On 7/9/2021 at 7:27 PM, TimBKK said:

The many thousands of Thais who depend upon it for their livelihoods - you know, things like food and keeping a roof over their head.  Happy now?

The Thai government needs to get the word out to the people that vaccines are safe and will generally end what's going on. The USA is back to normal - masks are off in most places and the economy is doing well. Of course, there are areas of the USA experiencing a surge in hospitalizations, but that's 99.5% due to the unvaccinated. 

 

My wife, who is Thai and well educated feels a lot of Thai people are afraid to get vaccinated. No one in her family back home will get the jab. This is a huge issue in regards to herd immunity. It's going to take a long time and mutations are going to occur, but the Delta is bad enough! 

 

I suppose the government will just throw up its hands and allow anyone vacccinated from abroad to enter the country without any restrictions (aside from proof of that vaccination.)

 

It will be the end of the year, next year, before vaccination efforts ramp up. It's really sad. We'd planned to move there, but are putting it off for several years. Perhaps, things will return to normal sooner than later - economically.

[Bohemianfish]

58 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Pattaya, as we knew it will never open again. It's finished as a full on party resort.

Hard to say. I thought the USA was a huge mess last year and the economy would tank, but life is back to normal (generally speaking) - masks are off for the most part (some/many do wear them at the stores), but economically things are doing pretty well. Bounced right back. But the goverment has been pumping a lot of money into the economy. There's a vibrancy and things are going well.

 

Pattaya and the rest of the country could bounce right back. Time will tell.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Bohemianfish

[Leaver]

27 minutes ago, Bohemianfish said:

November 2022. Herd immunity may be achieved by then. Reason being a lot of Thai people are afraid to get vaccinated. 

The Thai government will eventually announce a date that the country will fully open, never to close for covid again. 

 

Well prior to that date, vaccines will be readily available.  Those Thai's who chose not to vax will take on the risk themselves, but the country will open regardless.  

[Leaver]

22 minutes ago, Bohemianfish said:

Hard to say. I thought the USA was a huge mess last year and the economy would tank, but life is back to normal (generally speaking) - masks are off for the most part (some/many do wear them at the stores), but economically things are doing pretty well. Bounced right back. But the goverment has been pumping a lot of money into the economy. There's a vibrancy and things are going well.

 

Pattaya and the rest of the country could bounce right back. Time will tell.

 

What money is the Thai government pumping into the Thai economy, particularly, at the consumer level?  

[jomtienisgood]

9 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

Pattaya has a lot to offer and is not that far from BKK.  Personally living in Rangsit I enjoy a weekend at Pats and no it h as nothing to do with the ladies as i take the GF with me.

I understand though that one of my favorite places the navy look out has changed with out the coffee shops so that is now off the list.

Is Night Circus still existing ?? Not far from Rangsit.