SURVEY: How long before Thailand returns to normal?

[cjinchiangrai]

We should hit the vaccination numbers next Summer, that might allow for a no quarantine high season in 2022/23. The tourism sector really needs the Indians and Chinese back. It is not the falangs that run the numbers up. The Chinese and Indians can pop over for a quick trip anytime they like and they do. It is not the big expensive production that it is coming from London or Chicago. Expect to see some special visas and promotions there.

 

We will need solid vaccination passports and serious enforcement. No jabs? No entry, no extension, no renewals. Once the vaccines are here, the Thais are going to have to comply and we will have to as well. I am really looking forward to a good digital passport.

Edited August 2, 2021 by cjinchiangrai

[RichardColeman]

If Pfizer makes their tablet vaccine then quite quickly - but the issue then becomes who overseas did not bankrupt themselves enough to afford  a holiday 

[cjinchiangrai]

1 minute ago, RichardColeman said:

If Pfizer makes their tablet vaccine then quite quickly - but the issue then becomes who overseas did not bankrupt themselves enough to afford  a holiday 

China. They have plenty of money, time saved and are the largest tourist group. Get the vaccinations under control, open the bars and they will be back, no problem.

[talahtnut]

Depends what you mean by 'normal', 40 million tourists a year is not normal.

25/30 years ago Pattaya was Thai, but in recent times resembles Ibiza, with

foul mannered UK potato sacks drinking and cavorting with bar girls.

Those 2019 times will never return.

 

 

[sawadee1947]

20 hours ago, Blumpie said:

You mean completely normal with 39 million tourists a year

Well, 

there might be even other reasons. 

Think about climate change. Nobody will enjoy temps about 50 degrees. 

Think about hurricanes and floodings. 

Nobody likes to wake up without a roof or get wet feet. 

Think about shortage of water.

You like to wake up in the morning without being able to have a shower? Or to buy expensive drinking water as it is in OZ? ????

[meechai]

8 hours ago, James105 said:

It's already happening:

 

"New Zealand children falling ill in high numbers due to Covid ‘immunity debt’"

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt

I have said from the beginning this may occur because the the human body is super efficient that way.

If it detects non-use of a function it shuts that function down

 

Examples such as Men taking testosterone & their bodies stop making it naturally etc So guess the result of a immune system not being used?

 

All this mask wearing & washing is killing off good bacteria & also now allowing our immune systems to function normally.

Not exercising our immune systems will surely shut them down just as that article you linked mentioned

Quote

“The lack of immune stimulation… induced an “immunity debt”

Lastly I will not be surprised to see future lung/respiratory problems especially for kids as our lungs are now restricted thru the masked filters

 

[meechai]

7 hours ago, DefaultName said:

When 70+% of the adult population is vaccinated and the country opens up again, that'll be normal.  Not the normal we had before, but the normal we'll learn to love.

 

So, any anti's reading, get with the program, you are helping to delay things.  You, not the rest of us.

This is a silly notion when dealing with an quickly mutating/moving target

"Herd Immunity" is a perfect name for it

 

Truth is that has been reached many times already in many locations & it did not help at all.

Just look at Gibraltar fully vaccinated adult pop in April this year ...look now

 

Or how about the UK Air Craft Carrier that went to sea fully vac'ed only later to develop Delta?

As clear a case of Herd vacc'ed as possible

 

What about all the Vaccinated now getting & spreading Delta?

Singapore 75% of recent cases fully vacced

 

CDC: 74% infected in Massachusetts COVID-19 outbreak were vaccinated

 

Lastly remember many ....many folks have had & survived easily (99+%) survival rate of covid naturally so those should be included in

your "Herd Immunity" numbers...In fact they have the better antibodies as their does not diminish in months

 

When those are included the number of those with antibodies (both naturally obtained & vaccinated) are well over 70%

 

I am not anti-vac but those who think it will magically create herd immunity are dreaming

 

 

[Blumpie]

7 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

You really don't want to be dying from this one though, it's a horrible disease, you slowly drown as your lungs become overwhelmed by the infection, and if you do survive your quality of life, depending how badly you were infected, is normally krap, in my brothers case the Dr's ramped up his medication, he was out like a light & then they just switched off his ventilator, they9 allowed his siblings to talk to him via mobile phone, his sons, his grand children everyone sent their love, including me here in Thailand, the most painful & tearjerking thing I have had to do in my whole life, then they switched everything off & within 10 minutes maybe less he was gone.

 

The Dr that performed the autopsy said to his son later that had he survived he would have been severely handicapped lung wise and would have needed oxygen for the rest of his life and would have been severely debilitated, don't treat this virus lightly.

 

I'm really sorry about  your story.  It's awful.  

For anti vexers who get these debilitating problems I really have no sympathy for them whatsoever.  They don't know what lung damage is and what it does to people.  If you relish walking around with an oxygen tank for the rest of  your life  and  dying from lung disease much earlier than you would imagine, I guess you have nothing at all to worry about.

The death rate, to me, means something but it's relatively little.   Long COVID is what is going to make  people's  lives a living hell.  

[chilli42]

Why was “Never again” not a choice option?  We have headed down a dark path and it’s difficult to see a way back

[Credo]

I am going to go out on a limb and say the country will be open to free travel by the end of the year.   There are a couple of reasons for this, first the Delta variety seems to tear through the population at an alarming rate and then quiet down.  The second, because the mass vaccination will most likely lower both the rate of infections and the seriousness of those that have it.   

Although the vaccination program is far from smooth and it involves a mis-match of vaccines, in it's totality that might be a good thing.   Everyone may not be effectively vaccinated against every variant, but the different vaccines may provide better protection against an array of variants.   If it easily breaks through one type of vaccine, another may provide some protection.   

The wild card in all this is the young people who are below the age to be vaccinated.   Will they become infected in large numbers and will they be transmitting the virus?   This is a problem that's going to be faced by every country.   

[Blumpie]

24 minutes ago, Credo said:

I am going to go out on a limb and say the country will be open to free travel by the end of the year.   There are a couple of reasons for this, first the Delta variety seems to tear through the population at an alarming rate and then quiet down.  The second, because the mass vaccination will most likely lower both the rate of infections and the seriousness of those that have it.   

Although the vaccination program is far from smooth and it involves a mis-match of vaccines, in it's totality that might be a good thing.   Everyone may not be effectively vaccinated against every variant, but the different vaccines may provide better protection against an array of variants.   If it easily breaks through one type of vaccine, another may provide some protection.   

The wild card in all this is the young people who are below the age to be vaccinated.   Will they become infected in large numbers and will they be transmitting the virus?   This is a problem that's going to be faced by every country.   

Willing to take odds?  

[gt162]

7 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

China. They have plenty of money, time saved and are the largest tourist group. Get the vaccinations under control, open the bars and they will be back, no problem.

Yes Chinese has money to spend but they don't go to bars. Vast majority come in package tours for best bang-for-baht deals. China has long quarantine requirement upon return like 3 weeks. Chinese are not going overseas for 1-2 week vacation and spend 3 weeks in quarantine when they return without Chinese government approval and they are not doing that for awhile.

Edited August 2, 2021 by gt162

[BE88]

On 8/1/2021 at 6:27 PM, kynikoi said:

First, covid is not going away. With vaccine and herd immunity it can be mitigated. One year for the order, one year for the aftermath and one year begins the attempt to rebuild. This is just covid that means laws, trust, return to what most consider normal.

 

Especially if we lockdown for two months in next few weeks (in the next year there will be many lockdowns) the economy is doomed. This will take five years to recover imo. Thais already indebted. Economy already teetering since 2015.

 

Factories will have huge issues managing covid, illness and production. Two years or more.

 

We don't know the social implications of the loss of parents and breadwinners. By govts estimates 30k pm with nothing to reign it in. People are doing stupid stuff  yesterday I saw a guy buying carrots in Big C. He risked covid for carrots.

 

Tourism. As long as ASQ and all the paperwork and circus is in place tourism is dead.

 

Thailand will need to produce vaccine passport because why not $$$

 

I don't see the housing market moving or at all healthy. This can go on until the banks call the loans but they can't bc they've given overextended second, third mortgages. Oh well.

 

Politically there is no return to democratic process and what we in the west consider proper due process and jurisprudence. What this dissolution means for the future no one knows but I don't see how it can be a positive.

 

It will be five years or two years after the US sorts itself out. Whichever is less.

I did not understand the question of buying carrots at BIGC ?

 

[Credo]

49 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Willing to take odds?  

No.  I think I went far enough out on the limb.   

[Blumpie]

5 minutes ago, Credo said:

No.  I think I went far enough out on the limb.   

I didn't think so.  ????  

We are fully open here and let me tell you the #1 problem is getting employees.  There are restaurants closed and they cannot open because there is no staff.  Nothing is normal.  Businesses that are open are all running on reduced hours.  

A country like Thailand will have problems further down.  Who is going to catch fish?  Who is going to pick rice?  

We are so far from normal it's incredible.  And they figure it will take years to get back to it even after being open.

And that's another opinion on the pile.  

[Blumpie]

39 minutes ago, gt162 said:

Yes Chinese has money to spend but they don't go to bars. Vast majority come in package tours for best bang-for-baht deals. China has long quarantine requirement upon return like 3 weeks. Chinese are not going overseas for 1-2 week vacation and spend 3 weeks in quarantine when they return without Chinese government approval and they are not doing that for awhile.

Of course they aren't.

It wasn't long ago everyone on this board was freaking out because they were coming back.  It was beyond silly.  

If anyone thinks that the #2 economy in the world is going to shut down so their people can go to Thailand for a beach holiday hasn't thought things through.  

Besides, they are enjoying the domestic tourism boom.  Do they really want their citizens travelling even if they could now?  No.

[sezze]

I used to think ( april /june 2020) quite fast . The longer we stay in these problems , the more problems i can see ahead . I am longer ahead i i see huge debt by countries , i see climate change plans ( aircraft tax ) , i see rules and regulations staying long long time .

Before , when staying less then a month , i needed a valid passport , and that was it . Staying less then 2-6 months , i needed i tourist visa , with some paperwork but not too much . What do we get now , visa , COE , extra insurance , extra tests , being ordered from far away , tests before going , "sandbox " tourism , whatever ... and i do many of those things going away very fast ( i am afraid many things will stay ) . TBH right now , i am afraid , i do not see mass tourism return in the next few years . Not only by covid , but all the extra rules , price hikes , will make it very difficult to make long range travel . It would be like 1970 , when it wasn't very easy also , but now it isn't the distance but many other things around .

So i answered to the OP question several years , since i do not see this turning around very soon , and many ( most ) people do not want to take all the hurdles going long distance , even if they want to , and younger potential tourists , to fill up the gap , would be hesitating because of it .

[Walker88]

7 hours ago, meechai said:

 

Lastly remember many ....many folks have had & survived easily (99+%) survival rate of covid naturally so those should be included in

your "Herd Immunity" numbers...In fact they have the better antibodies as their does not diminish in months

 

 

 

Just for the record, according to Johns Hopkins Medical, and based on deaths/infections, the survival rate from Covid is 97.85%, not 99+%

 

Death rates are not only a function of the virulence of Covid, but also a function of the rate of infection (i.e., the healthcare system gets overwhelmed and thus some die who might have been saved if health folks had more time to treat them), and perhaps the variant contracted.

 

Mitigation measures have two goals: limit overall infections, and slow the rate of infection so as not to overwhelm the system and lead to deaths by unavoidable neglect.

 

The original strain was a threat primarily to the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Delta, and perhaps Lambda, are attacking otherwise healthy young people.

 

Unless societies are comfortable with culling 2.15% of their populations---and given the possibility that immunity via vaccine has a finite life span---we could be looking at yearly booster shots.

 

As new variants emerge, some of which might obviate existing vaccines, the labs are going to be busy trying to stay ahead of what is likely the most ubiquitous harmful virus on the planet, that by its numbers has lots of chances to mutate.

[BangkokReady]

On 8/1/2021 at 12:57 AM, Scott said:

vaccine programs being started in earnest

Until they stop using Sinovac, I'm not sure if this is actually accurate.

[NoshowJones]

On 8/1/2021 at 5:53 PM, Caldera said:

As per the definition of "normal" by the OP, I'd say mid next year, about a year from now.

Along with the definition of "normal" by the OP, the opening of most bars, restaurants, hotels, gyms etc, maybe you are right, about a year from now.

[Alwaysthailand]

this is the new NORMAL....

[Walker88]

On 8/1/2021 at 10:42 AM, mfd101 said:

Probably in most countries including Thailand there will never be a return to the 'old normal'.

 

Many things will have changed permanently - supply chains, people flows, ways of doing business, education structures, community health processes & standards, concepts of national security ...

Another thing that may have changed is how we view each other.

 

There is now an obvious divide between the various 'anti-vax' crowd and other people. Knowing that a sizable % of our fellow citizens can be convinced that 'vaccines magnetize you' or 'Bill Gates is implanting microchips in you via the vaccine to control you', or that Covid itself is a 'hoax' manufactured by a political Party, is enough to make one look askance at his fellows. Standing in line at the supermarket, for example, will we begin wondering just how gullible and prone to embracing abject absurdity is the guy in front or behind?

[NoshowJones]

On 8/1/2021 at 6:27 PM, kynikoi said:

First, covid is not going away. With vaccine and herd immunity it can be mitigated. One year for the order, one year for the aftermath and one year begins the attempt to rebuild. This is just covid that means laws, trust, return to what most consider normal.

 

Especially if we lockdown for two months in next few weeks (in the next year there will be many lockdowns) the economy is doomed. This will take five years to recover imo. Thais already indebted. Economy already teetering since 2015.

 

Factories will have huge issues managing covid, illness and production. Two years or more.

 

We don't know the social implications of the loss of parents and breadwinners. By govts estimates 30k pm with nothing to reign it in. People are doing stupid stuff  yesterday I saw a guy buying carrots in Big C. He risked covid for carrots.

 

Tourism. As long as ASQ and all the paperwork and circus is in place tourism is dead.

 

Thailand will need to produce vaccine passport because why not $$$

 

I don't see the housing market moving or at all healthy. This can go on until the banks call the loans but they can't bc they've given overextended second, third mortgages. Oh well.

 

Politically there is no return to democratic process and what we in the west consider proper due process and jurisprudence. What this dissolution means for the future no one knows but I don't see how it can be a positive.

 

It will be five years or two years after the US sorts itself out. Whichever is less.

"Economy already teetering since 2015." That's very true, it is not that long after the unelected PM stole the country in 2014 that things really got steadily worse ie, the visa changes making it harder for long stay tourists under 50 who did not want to get married etc, etc, to come to Thailand.

As for how long the country will take to get back to a real normal, that's with most Thai people to be back in full employment. I think it will depend on how long it will take for a democratically elected government to take over.

 

[BritManToo]

15 hours ago, superal said:

OK , so I think that we all agree that vaccinations are the only way out

I don't agree!

[BritManToo]

42 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Another thing that may have changed is how we view each other.

 

There is now an obvious divide between the various 'anti-vax' crowd and other people. Knowing that a sizable % of our fellow citizens can be convinced that 'vaccines magnetize you' or 'Bill Gates is implanting microchips in you via the vaccine to control you', or that Covid itself is a 'hoax' manufactured by a political Party, is enough to make one look askance at his fellows. Standing in line at the supermarket, for example, will we begin wondering just how gullible and prone to embracing abject absurdity is the guy in front or behind?

If the vaccines are so great, why can none of them get FDA approval?

Just asking?

[tonray]

I hope it's soon because my hair is getting scary

[NoshowJones]

15 hours ago, racket said:

There was never a normal pre-covid. In fact the tourism sector was already hit hard with businesses struggling. The only way I see Thailand "recovering" is a complete new management inside the tourist authority with some new, young minds who understands marketing and better communicate with customers. I just don't see anything back to normal anytime soon. It's not a matter of years, but rather when things start to change with respect to management. 

Thailand will never recover from the likes of businesses getting hit hard, among other negative things like tourism etc, as long as coups are allowed to keep happening. More than half of my time living in Thailand, has been under military rule.

It seems that there is always some general or like decides he wants to get richer, he gets other generals to back him up and the country is again under military rule.

I don't see this ever changing in the near future, maybe until the present young Thai people see through everything that has been happening in the past and really do something about it.

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

If the vaccines are so great, why can none of them get FDA approval?

Just asking?

Here is a Forbes article discussing this.....

Just goes to show the FDA is not fit for purpose in an emergency pandemic situation. 

 

[jacko45k]

2 minutes ago, tonray said:

I hope it's soon because my hair is getting scary

Those Wahl clippers I bought years ago have come into their own now.... yes I look like a convict, but in the current situation that is very apt!

[NoshowJones]

10 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

China. They have plenty of money, time saved and are the largest tourist group. Get the vaccinations under control, open the bars and they will be back, no problem.

I am not saying that this is really true, but as I understand it, most Chinese men do not frequent the bars.