6 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) estimates loss in revenue caused by the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 at Bt2.6 trillion. #BankofThailand #COVID19 #ThailandNews #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004771

Self inflicted wound. Why? The list is long but some examples as I see it are not having an early and hard lockdown of maybe six wks, now having a psuedo lockdown, allowing sars-cov-2 out of BKK to provinces, an all eggs in one basket approach to vaccination i.e. Sinovac and not signing up to COVAC when they could have and should have.

How many tested?

11 minutes ago, anchadian said:

CCSA gives nod to buy 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines

 

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration on Tuesday approved the procurement of an additional 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines to cope with the spreading delta variant of the virus. #CCSA #COVID19 #vaccine #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004769

More positive news. Should keep the vaccination targets on schedule and not delay the reopening. 

14 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) estimates loss in revenue caused by the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 at Bt2.6 trillion. #BankofThailand #COVID19 #ThailandNews #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004771

If 2.6Trillion Bt is the lost revenue so far, How much in Loans has the Government put out and what part of that 2.6 Trillion is from those outputs?  Or is the BOT's estimate only based upon the losses incurred from the businesses and GDP.

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Is it now reasonable to think that the peak may have been reached, and that we could be looking at an India-type decline over the next few weeks?

 

Or, not yet?

i'm in the yes camp on decline although not sure it will be as quick as india's charts show.  we've seen a couple days of record deaths in the last week.  but the growth rate in daily deaths is slowing down (using the 7 day avg, daily death number).  that doesn't mean the death numbers are going down, just means they are going up slower.  that is a sign that a top is near. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

More positive news. Should keep the vaccination targets on schedule and not delay the reopening. 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004769

"The 32 million doses will comprise 12 million doses of Sinovac, 10 million of Pfizer and 10 million other brands the government is negotiating with, depending on who could deliver the fastest,” he said.

“We expect the negotiations to be completed before the end of September so that Thailand can achieve the target of vaccinating 100 million doses within 2021.”

 

 

I understand the need to vaccinate, but why do they keep buying CoronaVac, I am sure it is not efficacy useless, but why not try to obtain a different vaccine like SinoPharm as well as Moderna. Of course if they are obtaining the CoronaVac fast then I guess that's one way to at least get some vaccines into peoples arms.  What happened to ordering more SinoPharm as that seems to arrive quickly also. 

 

I agree more obtained vaccines is good news, but to say that 100 million doses by the end of 2021 can be achieved, well we will just have to wait and see. To do so they will need to vaccinate 500k a day everyday and that includes the boosters as well, but then that's my view only.  I do wish the country well.  I will get my second vaccine of AZ in 4 weeks, yet my GF still can not get a vaccination.

53 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Despite the scepticism, due to its undoubted success it’s only a matter of time before the quarantine is reduced and the scheme is extended to a wider audience as part of the reopening. 

I agree that the issue is not with incoming vaxxed tourists. However, if locally, infections/deaths remain high and businesses remain closed (or the threat of closures remains high), then why would anyone plan a vacation in Thailand. Sure, some number are happy to hang out at the beach all day (lots of beaches in the world) but for the tourists that want to enjoy nightlife, travel freely around the country, go out for nice dinners and drinks, well those options may be very limited. Unless you have other reasons to visit, would you really pick Thailand as your vacation spot now?

26 minutes ago, anchadian said:

CCSA gives nod to buy 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines

 

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration on Tuesday approved the procurement of an additional 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines to cope with the spreading delta variant of the virus. #CCSA #COVID19 #vaccine #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004769

So now the authorities are free to consider the possibility of opening negotiations with vaccine providers. 
 

I just wish these announcements were limited to vaccine deliveries. Then, we would not be flooded with press releases about plans to think about getting vaccines some day. 

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

What is the Positivity Rate (Percent Positive)?

 

That is, what was the number of  tests performed out of which 20,128 were deemed to be newly infected?

 

And does it matter what it is given the testing metrics used here, and now?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i think the positivity rate is most meaningful when an entire community is tested, then you know how bad (or good) it is in that area.  the opposite end of the spectrum is what we've got in thailand, where many/most of those tested felt sick and thereby sought out a test.  if the positivity rate across thailand was 40-50%, the virus would be nearly gone by now.  it got everybody.

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Is it now reasonable to think that the peak may have been reached, and that we could be looking at an India-type decline over the next few weeks?

 

Or, not yet?

It is very easy to have flat numbers when the hospitals are full and there is no care to get even if you can get a test - which many cannot.

I'm not going to harp on Thailand about this - a lot of countries had this happen.  Things are pretty messed up right now.  

Opinion: Forget amnesty for our elected officials, there should be an inquest

 

Rising cases, with new daily highs. A city on fire. Bodies that just dropped dead on the streets. Not just isolated incidents, but a snapshot of Bangkok in the summer of 2021.

 

All stand as a testament to the government’s ineptitude. They died as they lived, alone and abandoned by the government that was supposed to serve them. A government that seems more interested in defining its own narrative and opposing “call-outs” than they are in acknowledging the present situation.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/31326/opinion-forget-amnesty-for-our-elected-officials-there-should-be-an-inquest/

1 hour ago, Kadilo said:

Yes very reasonable. 
On schedule to open for high season as planned. 
 

 

Prayut said the plan was to open by Oct, thats 6 weeks away, a tad optimistic perhaps, wouldn't want to build up peoples hopes and let them down again.

19 minutes ago, Silencer said:

I agree that the issue is not with incoming vaxxed tourists. However, if locally, infections/deaths remain high and businesses remain closed (or the threat of closures remains high), then why would anyone plan a vacation in Thailand. Sure, some number are happy to hang out at the beach all day (lots of beaches in the world) but for the tourists that want to enjoy nightlife, travel freely around the country, go out for nice dinners and drinks, well those options may be very limited. Unless you have other reasons to visit, would you really pick Thailand as your vacation spot now?

Clearly many 000’s disagree with you and did, despite the restrictions re quarantine. 
 

So once they are lifted I would expect many will continue to choose Thailand as their holiday destination. 
 

Using the UK as an example. Thailand still remains in the amber list so no panic currently going on from there, and no negative euphoria telling their citizens to stay away. So I would expect them to arrive on mass for Xmas/New Year as always. 
 

 

 

  
 

 

2 hours ago, anchadian said:

Phuket health authorities are reporting 50 new local cases, zero cases from the Sandbox and one new death. There are 794 patients in care. The #PhuketSandbox has had 58 cases since 1st July #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1427430351408820242

 

Here's a chart on the official community cases which of course does not include those found positive from the rapid tests, yesterday that was in the 70's and today its reported there are 7 positive from rapid tests which makes the unofficial positive count 57. https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-marks-50-new-local-infections-one-new-covid-death-81077.php

 

Living in Phuket I don't know anyone that is worried about the international tourists as they pose a very minimal risk infact they are probably the safest people to be around, what they are worried about is the spiraling local infections and no clear measures to curtail them, having a sharp circuit breaker lockdown is impossible with tourists arriving.

 

Thailand's COVID crisis exposes the reality of '2% unemployment'

 

Official figure masks increasing woes that could add to premier's headaches

 

BANGKOK -- Wanchalerm Noomuean yearns for the days he was known in Phuket as tour guide Jimmy, and every month showed hundreds of international visitors around the famous Thai island.

 

(Paywall)

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Thailand-s-COVID-crisis-exposes-the-reality-of-2-unemployment

4 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Clearly many 000’s disagree with you and did, despite the restrictions re quarantine. 
 

So once they are lifted I would expect many will continue to choose Thailand as their holiday destination. 
 

 

How many of those that arrived came for a Holiday?, and how many have come just to return to their homes and families here.  I know of at least 4 that have come to return home.  They then had to rent a Van to be driven to the north instead of being able to have the FIL drive down and pick them up. However, If all I wanted was to sit on the beach and enjoy a nice dinner with some wine I am sure that could be done in the Sandbox, but what of those that want to travel around Thailand and eat in restaurants and have a drink with dinner, that's a no-go right now, but with the newly approved 7+7 sandbox extension that may change.  However, for any of us that live here outside of the Sandbox, going out to dinner and such is a true non-starter.  My kids want to visit, but with the restrictions in place and my inability to get to Phuket to see them, if they went to the sandbox, and enjoy a good time with them, well that's not doable at this point in Time.  Maybe one day in the future, one can only hope.

8 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Clearly many 000’s disagree with you and did. 

Yes they did. Any idea what percentage of those 000's had family, gf/bf to visit, homes or businesses here? I have never seen a stat on that. Would you pick now to visit Thailand?

38 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

It is very easy to have flat numbers when the hospitals are full and there is no care to get even if you can get a test - which many cannot.

I'm not going to harp on Thailand about this - a lot of countries had this happen.  Things are pretty messed up right now.  

Only 500 proactive tests in Chonburi yesterday, with 1300 tests for close contacts. This limited testing means that new cases yesterday dropped, of course.

 

But it also means a positivity rate of 50+% for those tested.

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Only 500 proactive tests in Chonburi yesterday, with 1300 tests for close contacts. This limiting testing means that new cases yesterday dropped, of course.

 

But it also means a positivity rate of 50+% for those tested.

Phuket there was only just over 300 pro active tests in just one small area, keeps numbers down I guess

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Only 500 proactive tests in Chonburi yesterday, with 1300 tests for close contacts. This limiting testing means that new cases yesterday dropped, of course.

 

But it also means a positivity rate of 50+% for those tested.

That positivity rate would make me cringe and scream if I was the Governor of Chonburi as well as the Government itself.  If you pushed that positivity rate every where OMG, that would not be a good figure for infections.

3 minutes ago, Silencer said:

Yes they did. Any idea what percentage of those 000's had family, gf/bf to visit, homes or businesses here? I have never seen a stat on that. Would you pick now to visit Thailand?

Was in the middle of typing exactly that when you posted.

The thing to add is that 'pool' of folk that you refer to, i.e those with family and/or property etc is limited by number.

As a tourist you would be crazy to visit Thailand right now.

Even the folk that live here wouldn't bother with domestic travel. 

From yesterday's Chonburi update:

 

TIMELINE: Pattaya area informs residents who visited places in relation to the most recent Chonburi confirmed Covid –19 cases

 

List of places here:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/08/17/timeline-pattaya-area-informs-residents-who-visited-places-in-relation-to-the-most-recent-chonburi-confirmed-covid-19-cases-3/

 

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) estimates loss in revenue caused by the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 at Bt2.6 trillion. #BankofThailand #COVID19 #ThailandNews #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004771

If that ~ $81 billion is a true estimate, and Thailand has a shade under a $500 billion GDP, then how does that same BoT conjure up +1.3% GDP growth from that? Even if that loss is spread over 2 years, that's at least an 8% drop in GDP.  Given Tourism was 18.8% of Thai GDP in 2019, and it's now but a fraction of that, the actual GDP decline is likely quite a bit higher.

The most important number is deaths as for certain every one of these are real and very sad and most are old and vulnerable. The relationship between the number infected and deaths can be altered by vaccinating the old and vulnerable.

 

Shame on the government for their careless and cruel vaccination policy - all old and vulnerable should have been vaccinated by now. Hardly surprising they are looking for immunity from prosecution.

9 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

Shame on the government for their careless and cruel vaccination policy - all old and vulnerable should have been vaccinated by now. 

Just to add....only 20% of population is 60+ which is ~ 13mil people. 

True front line workers etc need vaccination however given that median age of death is ~67, the elderly group needed to be targeted more.

55 minutes ago, Silencer said:

Yes they did. Any idea what percentage of those 000's had family, gf/bf to visit, homes or businesses here? I have never seen a stat on that. Would you pick now to visit Thailand?

Yes, as I said. It is on the amber group of countries in the UK so not deemed any more risky than the likes of Germany, Sweden and many many more. 

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

CCSA gives nod to buy 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines

 

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration on Tuesday approved the procurement of an additional 32 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines to cope with the spreading delta variant of the virus. #CCSA #COVID19 #vaccine #TheNationThailand

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40004769

 

 

The 32 million doses will comprise 12 million doses of Sinovac, 10 million of Pfizer and 10 million other brands the government is negotiating with, depending on who could deliver the fastest,” he said.

 

 

Interesting that a third "given the nod" is a vaccine to be named later.

 

And AstraZeneca is missing? Or is some amount of AZ already in the current totals, and this 32 mm in incremental.

 

The regime does themselves no favors by making things less than transparent.

 

They could accurately represent their vaccine plan/purchases with a single cartoon. But no, that's too challenging.

 

 

 

 

 

Its good to regularly see the graph and table from Bkk Brian.

Note that the 7 day moving average is now set to peak and fall in the next 2 days unless there is a new spike upwards above the number for 12th and 13th.

Keep your fingers crossed.
Even if the figures do not truly reflect the situation it could be a welcome sign.

14 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Yes, as I said. It is on the amber group of countries in the UK so not deemed any more risky than the likes of Germany, Sweden and many many more. 

He asked what % of the people that came to Thailand via sandbox scheme were tourists vs those with ties such as family, property etc

Simple question however don't think there is any data on that.

56 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Was in the middle of typing exactly that when you posted.

The thing to add is that 'pool' of folk that you refer to, i.e those with family and/or property etc is limited by number.

As a tourist you would be crazy to visit Thailand right now.

Even the folk that live here wouldn't bother with domestic travel. 

Probably one of the reasons that the number arriving August is nowhere near as that in July.