Latest foreign tourist assessment: Kasikorn downgrades to just 150,000 visitors before year's end

[webfact]

File photo: REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

Thailand's Kasikorn research thinktank has completely reassessed their predictions for the number of foreign tourists likely to visit Thailand in the remainder of this year.

 

After earlier predictions of 250,000 to 650,000 arrivals they are now saying the likelihood is that it will be just 150,000.

 

Even this may be on the optimistic side given the situation in the country at present.

 

These figures were already much more conservative that those coming from the Tourism Authority of Thailand and tourism and sports minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan, notes ASEAN NOW.

 

Many people both inside Thailand and looking in from afar had deemed their predictions as little more than "pie-in-the-sky". 

 

Kasikorn said, in a wide ranging report that looked at the changing face of tourism around the world in light of the rapid spread of the Delta variant, that Thailand was facing a "challenging time" with the country's severe pandemic crisis. 

 

On top of this the country is also facing political instability that is also not conducive to promoting the kingdom as a place for international tourism. 

 

Kasikorn referred to current conditions being faced in tourism markets across the world as a "fourth wave of the virus". 

 

They pointed to limited success for the Special Tourist Visa and the Phuket Sandbox that were "well received" but noted that Thailand's tourism outlook was not rosy.

 

The country needed to look towards next year for any possible improvement in the numbers utilizing knowledge gained from experience of 2021.

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2021-08-19

 

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[Sharp]

Finally a realistic number and let's call them arrivals as the demographic would be a split between returnees and tourists

[Tropicalevo]

Well done Asean Now.

That is at least three articles that contain some resemblance to the truth instead of the 'hype' that the Thai press puts out.

(Couple on a motorbike looking for a hospital bed,  official unemployment figures are a lie and this article.)

More please.

[ExpatOilWorker]

TAT will soon come along to correct this factual nonsense. 

Less than 6 months ago they predicted 11 million, then 8 million, 6 million tourist arrivals for 2021.

Reality is a bitch when you have a-nut-in(charge) of the worst vaccination program, in the world.

[Hayduke]

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand's Kasikorn research thinktank has completely reassessed their predictions for the number of foreign tourists likely to visit Thailand

An honest assessment? Expect a new emergency decree criminalizing honesty.

 

 

[ezzra]

Throwing a pair of dice will be as accurate as any institute guess and assessments, but some government branches can't help themselves and keep throwing numbers in the air just so the will stay relevant, they can always later say not our fault, it's the tourists fault, they didn't want to come...

[RotBenz8888]

25 minutes ago, webfact said:

They pointed to limited success 

Very limited indeed...... Shall we 

use a more proper word, like Fiasco? 

[tomacht8]

There is also a countermovement. Many expats, business owners and older long-term retirees are planning their departure from Thailand. Some fly home because they can get an effective vaccination against C19 Delta immediately in their home countrys. Others fear that the lockdown wave will continue for months. No fun here. Restaurants, Bars, Entertainment, Attractions sights closed, alcohol bans, curfew, visa stress, restricted round trips and tourist ghost towns. Business owners and many foreign teachers give also up because they can no longer make money. With all the forecast numbers of the arrivals there are also the numbers of the departures, which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

[sapson]

Clearly not be taking a hit from TATs crack pipe of eternal optimism.

[ukrules]

Anyone who believed it would return to normal on October 1 needs a reality check.

 

People actually seem to believe the rubbish that the government have been saying all year.

 

I have a guy in belgium who does my bidding over there and he genuinely believes it's all over for them ????

I told him only yesterday to prepare for the worst in the next 2 months and he laughed it off, him and all his friends know it's all over because their idiot government told them so.

They're all wrong, every one of them.

 

Everything comes as a surprise to these people yet if you look close enough you can see it coming long before it hits.

 

[Bluespunk]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

After earlier predictions of 250,000 to 650,000 arrivals they are now saying the likelihood is that it will be just 150,000.

What?

 

Realistic figures regarding tourism!

 

What is going on?
 

“It’s the end of the world as we know it.”

 

R.E.M

[Gsxrnz]

Here's my two-bob's worth to supplement their data.  On a scooter ride of approximately 3klm from Pattaya Central Festival Mall to Jomtien at 1:30pm today. I counted 78 moving vehicles, including scooters.  And 48 of those were the ones I overtook (or undertook) going in my direction. The record low for the same trip was last week (Wednesday I think), when the total count was 42.

 

There ain't nobody here and there ain't nobody coming any time soon.

 

 

[andersonat]

I understand that there's only a limited amount of space in a news-article/media-announcement, but I'd *really* like to learn/know how (for example) TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.  --  Does it come from polling potential Tourists in foreign-countries, does it come from questioning Tourists who are actually in Thailand, does it come from analysing flight/travel-trends from Airlines/Hotel-Booking-Companies ?

 ----   Do the Thai Government or the Research-Organisations ever actually publish the details upon which their calculations/predictions are based ? 

 

[RichardColeman]

One things for sure, with far less tourists than last year - when they still had 3 months of tourism - and more harsh lockdowns and closures, any rise in GDP is this will be purely fictitious and should result in negative figures.

 

Sadly if they opened up to all peoples of the world fully jabbed , they still have time to put it in positive territory 

[kwonitoy]

Never get a job with TAT with that kind of attitude.

 

Now lets see......if a million tourists show up with a million baht each.......ohhhhh too much money

[sanchmo]

Lepers?

[markeewan]

13 minutes ago, andersonat said:

I understand that there's only a limited amount of space in a news-article/media-announcement, but I'd *really* like to learn/know how (for example) TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.  --  Does it come from polling potential Tourists in foreign-countries, does it come from questioning Tourists who are actually in Thailand, does it come from analysing flight/travel-trends from Airlines/Hotel-Booking-Companies ?

 ----   Do the Thai Government or the Research-Organisations ever actually publish the details upon which their calculations/predictions are based ? 

 

There is nothing to learn here and to be polite they pull the numbers out of their hat. (or you could replace hat with another word).

[redwood1]

42 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Here's my two-bob's worth to supplement their data.  On a scooter ride of approximately 3klm from Pattaya Central Festival Mall to Jomtien at 1:30pm today. I counted 78 moving vehicles, including scooters.  And 48 of those were the ones I overtook (or undertook) going in my direction. The record low for the same trip was last week (Wednesday I think), when the total count was 42.

 

There ain't nobody here and there ain't nobody coming any time soon.

 

 

Good job I never thought to count cars before...

[redwood1]

36 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

One things for sure, with far less tourists than last year - when they still had 3 months of tourism - and more harsh lockdowns and closures, any rise in GDP is this will be purely fictitious and should result in negative figures.

 

Sadly if they opened up to all peoples of the world fully jabbed , they still have time to put it in positive territory 

Yea those first 3 months kept people from knowing the true bad numbers...

[khunpa]

Looks like there are some staff at Kasikorn who needs an “attitude adjustment holiday” and a training-course in how to use the TAT calculator.

 

I would pack a bag and look for a safe-house if I was them.

[Zack61]

This is 150,000 more than Australia is aiming for so I can't be too critical.

[flyfrog]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

Anyone who believed it would return to normal on October 1 needs a reality check.

 

People actually seem to believe the rubbish that the government have been saying all year.

 

I have a guy in belgium who does my bidding over there and he genuinely believes it's all over for them ????

I told him only yesterday to prepare for the worst in the next 2 months and he laughed it off, him and all his friends know it's all over because their idiot government told them so.

They're all wrong, every one of them.

 

Everything comes as a surprise to these people yet if you look close enough you can see it coming long before it hits.

 

I also was planning to go back see my family in Belgium for 3-4 months, my restaurants closed, and living on take away is almost impossible, but what's the point? Its very expensive over there to live, and the most ignoring thing is that quarantine when come back also very expensive. Also I have 18 staff from my 2 restaurants to care off, so I stay open for take away so at least we can give them a salary and maybe pay the rent.

I agree the worst is still to come, some don't' realize, worst vaccine organization in the world.

[Percy P]

9 minutes ago, Zack61 said:

This is 150,000 more than Australia is aiming for so I can't be too critical.

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

[newnative]

   If the SVT (or is it STV???) and the Sandbox schemes had actually been 'well received' Thailand would be seeing far more than just 150,000 visitors.  In reality, with both schemes the numerous and complex hoops to jump through were way too much for most.  

[AMFWolfie]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

There is also a countermovement. Many expats, business owners and older long-term retirees are planning their departure from Thailand. Some fly home because they can get an effective vaccination against C19 Delta immediately in their home countrys. Others fear that the lockdown wave will continue for months. No fun here. Restaurants, Bars, Entertainment, Attractions sights closed, alcohol bans, curfew, visa stress, restricted round trips and tourist ghost towns. Business owners and many foreign teachers give also up because they can no longer make money. With all the forecast numbers of the arrivals there are also the numbers of the departures, which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

Having left Thailand with the wife back in April with full intention of returning in October when quarantine was to be lifted everywhere, or at the very worse, 2 weeks in Phuket sandbox, I have watched with continuing doom and gloom of the gradual demise of Thailand's tourist industry. Having lost one bar that took 10 years to build and now see the other likely to follow suit because of the greed and stupidity of the owners wanting rent and key money during lockdown with no sign of common sense prevailing. I'm amazed anyone is bothering to spend or invest in any future enterprise in Thailand with the state of play as it currently is or as its predicted to be, ignoring of course TAT and other such like minded organisations just trying to hold on to their fragile jobs. Unless the government pull the preverbal white rabbit out of the hat and seriously start a genuine controlled vaccination program, allow proper democratic elections, all the speculation and conjecture is  purely a nonsense. I have spoken to many friends who live in Thailand and run business either here, there or both and are selling up in Thailand, lock stock and barrel and departing home for 5 - 10 years. These are people I would never have thought would give up their beloved Thailand but educated enough to realise it will take some considerable time for things to get back to anywhere near "normal". Fortunately this group are young enough to ride it out unlike some of us which realistically only have 5-10 years to be able to enjoy Thailand before heading for the knackers yard once and for all. While the departure of this particular group may not have any real bearing on the state of the country, their yearly expenditure in Thailand would not to be sniffed at what with private schools for the kids, vehicles, property and in many cases, Thai employees who work directly for them in companies or indirectly as home help etc.. Such a shame and could easily have been avoided if the powers to be hadn't been so greedy and corrupt in the first place..

[Sharp]

 Vaccinated people have to quarantine ????.. Nuff said! 

[Millcx]

2 hours ago, Sharp said:

Finally a realistic number and let's call them arrivals as the demographic would be a split between returnees and tourists

I think even 150k with word tourist next to it is optomistic

[koele2]

Yeah, but the 150,000 tourists will spend a total of 1 trillion baht, so nothing to worry about!  Everything is fine.  

[tomacht8]

8 minutes ago, newnative said:

   If the SVT (or is it STV???) and the Sandbox schemes had actually been 'well received' Thailand would be seeing far more than just 150,000 visitors.  In reality, with both schemes the numerous and complex hoops to jump through were way too much for most.  

Just to give some data published here for Samui +

 

In July TAT announced:

Exactly 1 month later TAT announced 

 

The range of numbers was therefore exactly 50% wrong, aka too high, by TAT. And that only within a month. You can imagine what the annual values will look like.

 

[Xonax]

And Thailand totally killed domestic tourism, just to get 150.000 foreign arrivals in 2021. Domestic tourists would have spent many times the amount, that these foreign "tourists" will ever spend!