14 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

If there is a war what will Thailand do? 

Surely they'll try to play both sides off against each other in an effort to benefit whatever the outcome?  That's pretty much hard-wired into Thai diplomacy.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

destabilising factor

These people don't know how to use a simple spellchecker? Anyway... The only "destabilizing factor" for Thailand here is not being able to play the US and China against each other the same way they did with Great Britain and France.

27 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

By China, yes.  By the US, no.

 

I'm not sure why your ally's presence should be intimidating.  I would imagine it would be reassuring, especially if you are in danger of being attacked by your much larger neighbor.

Yep. Especially when it’s by mutual agreement (see SOFA, for example.)

1 hour ago, Farangdk said:

Correct. Thailand need to get some nuclear attack subs too. 

Oh God no. That would trigger a terrible arms race in SEA. Cambodia would follow then eventually Laos would want subs on the Mekong.

 

 

1 hour ago, Denim said:

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

As perfect a piece of writing you will ever read on this forum.

The added bonus is it's driven the odious litlle Napoleon, Macron, up the wall. The French are furious.

Anyone who has travelled extensively in SE Asia will know what the Chinese are up to.

Let's see if the Chinese Premier even bothers to attend the climate meeting later this year.  Unless the Chinese get on board, the global climate agenda is ruined.

You only have to look at the property ponzi schemes, like Evergrande, the Chinese state is built on and their interventions, and manipulations of companies listed in China, to realise that the CCP is still a house built on sand.

Thailand is a butler to the Chinese and will slowly be consumed.

 

Great move. Someone needs to stand up to China and if it annoys Macron in the process then that's a bonus.

 

What they gonna do? Withdraw their ambassador? Oohhhh really scary.

 

36 minutes ago, mahtin said:

If there is a war what will Thailand do? 

Continue creeping quietly through the jungle, in all directions.

2 hours ago, webfact said:

It will have far-reaching ramifications for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and ratchet up the arms race.

Is the author daft? The only thing that will change is that Oz submarines will now be able to remain submerged for months; while with French submarines, they would have to surface periodically to recharge their batteries -- thus substantially increasing their vulnerability to being destroyed. The author apparently believes these subs will now be nuclear armed, which they won't. They'll still carry the same conventional weapons that the French subs would have carried. But now, being able to remain submerged, will provide a much improved tactical capability.

 

No, the only noise of interest in this development is the sound of deflated Frenchmen losing money. And kudos to the Aussies for putting their defense (and those of her allies) ahead of a flawed contract.

 

 

Actually, despite short-term economic impact, it may not be that bad for France. It gives the French government a pretext for not being fully drawn into an alliance, in which they would be a quasi-vassal with not much say on decisions (as UK). A position similar to De Gaulle's position re NATO (being coordinated with, but not be part of), allowing more freedom of decision, may actually be a good option.

 

From a more general POV, a key question may  arise before 2035: who's ready to die for Taiwan? Chinese kids have already been trained for years in this perspective.

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Who is doing the bullying? 

Best ask the Uyghurs , those who were at Tiananmen Square ,  the people of Hong Kong and the Taiwanese to name but some.

 

Haha is this a comedy piece???

Not surprised Thailand sends out the signals of basically being China's southernmost province and has been slowly inching towards that for a long time now. Good move by the US, UK and Australia really as those three together actually have clout and with Australian bases being provided, makes a huge difference in realistically projecting power around here.

As for the French, well, nothing new in them having a public tizzy at something. Truth is, they are very hard to deal with on any issue and one of the main reasons the EU is too.

Also, diesel subs are getting antiquated and not up-to-snuff really and now nuclear ones are on offer, no-brainer really. The French have also procrastinated for numerous years giving the Australians very little info on what is happening about their deal, plus all the construction would have been done in France at state-owned shipyards... not in Australia. So many reasons like this that the Ozzies bailed and France really only has itself to blame, but, of course, France is self-obsessed with its delusions of grandeur that it's a main player and all... hence the tizzy. 

2 hours ago, Denim said:

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

Couldn't agree more, just have a look at who are preaching boom and gloom, the one endeavouring to control the whole SE Asian region with their buildup of facilities and threats. Well guess what "centre of the world" you're in for a shock. 

1 hour ago, Denim said:

Oh God no. That would trigger a terrible arms race in SEA. Cambodia would follow then eventually Laos would want subs on the Mekong.

 

 

SEA enjoy a nuclear free zone and not be a target to any nuclear wars. Meanwhile Australia has now join the nuclear club and will be a target. Wonder if this nuclear alliance has the consent of the Australian people. Is it worth it. 

2 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

Think you are way off-side with your comment, suggest you review the buildup of resources, the incursions and threats into other countries and areas - it should become obvious as to who is bullying and why. 

2 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Thai subs will be next to useless against these new nuclear attack subs.

 

Oh dear.

Well at least they won't cause a nuclear disaster first time they crash into something. 

3 hours ago, mahtin said:

Thailand now Chinese pawn, thanks for the virus, no thanks to Joe for the vaccine?

LOS a vassal state within the decade

24 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Wonder if this nuclear alliance has the consent of the Australian people. Is it worth it. 

And does the Chinese Communist Party have the consent of the Chinese people ? Were they elected by the people to act for the people. Millions of Chinese people are not happy about the Communist parties continuance in office but have been cowed into silence. The CCP has not asked anyone for consent about anything. The Australian government on the other hand can be thrown down at the next election . So yes, the Australian government has already been given consent to run the country on behalf of the people. If the people don't like it they can change the government. Can the Chinese people do as much ?

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, poyai111 said:

LOS a vassal state within the decade

Seems they are already licking their boots and kissing their @®$E.

3 minutes ago, Denim said:

And does the Chinese Communist Party have the consent of the Chinese people ? Were they elected by the people to act for the people. Millions of Chinese people are not happy about the Communist parties continuance in office but have been cowed into silence. The CCP has not asked anyone for consent about anything. The Australian government on the other hand can be thrown down at the next election . So yes, the Australian government has already been given consent to run the country on behalf of the people. If the people don't like it they can change the government. Can the Chinese people do as much ?

 

 

 

 

NO. 

1 hour ago, BobinBKK said:

These people don't know how to use a simple spellchecker? Anyway... The only "destabilizing factor" for Thailand here is not being able to play the US and China against each other the same way they did with Great Britain and France.

Not incorrect if using UK English

Just now, phetphet said:

Not incorrect if using UK English

You mean real English? 

2 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

They don't have the tech and wouldn't be able to maintain them so its a non-starter. 

 

You don't remember WWII ? 

China would not allow it either

The Thai Government will no doubt see this as justification for increasing their military spending.

Just now, madmitch said:

The Thai Government will no doubt see this as justification for increasing their military spending.

Why not, might as well use all the available funds for such a noble cause ????

3 hours ago, Denim said:

If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it.

I'm a Yank, on your side in this. However, I remember the first morning I ever woke up in China, as a tourist in 2000. My first thought was "Why don't they just take back Taiwan?" I was impressed with their industrial power. They have nearly inexhaustible natural resources and soldiers to throw at Taiwan, which is right on their doorstep. The answer is that China calculates a benefit from the status quo. Whether it's in banking or technology or something else, I'm not qualified to say. 

 

AUKUS is a step in the right direction, but holding China at bay when they decide to take Taiwan is gonna be tough despite the alliance, due to the resources needed to fight that war from a distance. I hope it doesn't involve nukes. 

28 minutes ago, Denim said:

And does the Chinese Communist Party have the consent of the Chinese people ? Were they elected by the people to act for the people. Millions of Chinese people are not happy about the Communist parties continuance in office but have been cowed into silence. The CCP has not asked anyone for consent about anything. The Australian government on the other hand can be thrown down at the next election . So yes, the Australian government has already been given consent to run the country on behalf of the people. If the people don't like it they can change the government. Can the Chinese people do as much ?

 

 

 

 

The CCP was formed by the people who were discontented with the miseries inflicted by colonists. China history is filled with revolutions and uprisings when the country rulers didn’t delivered to the citizens. CCP government is not infallible if they can’t deliver the expectations of the people. Chinese now have a much better standard of living, extreme poverty has been drastically reduced and they are proud of China achievements in science and innovations. 
 

Cowed into silence is a myth. They have freedom of speech no difference from the others. However China like other Asian countries don’t share the same extent of freedom of speech of the west that has creat division and disunity among the people. 

 

US has shown that an elected leader can caused lasting and extensive damage to the country and democracy even if he was voted out. 
 

 

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

China don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world. Who is doing the bullying? 

China "don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world" at the moment.

1 minute ago, NanLaew said:

China "don’t have fleets like the US Second, Third, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh and Tenth Fleets active all over the world" at the moment.

Yes neither do they have military bases all over the world. 

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Cowed into silence is a myth. They have freedom of speech no difference from the others. However China like other Asian countries don’t share the same extent of freedom of speech that has creat division and disunity among the people. 

Wow. Just wow.