Thai government advised to prepare for financial fallout from China’s ‘Evergrande’ crisis

[bangon04]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:24 PM, chalawaan said:

The CCP is the enemy, not every other Chinese that walks the earth! 

True.  The "normal" Germans did not resist the Nazi party and we all got hurt.

Will the "normal" Chinese people resist the CCP before it starts a war?

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, Dumbfounded said:

China probably anticipated US intervention before, now they don't. China saw that the US couldn't even beat a bunch of 7th century cave dwellers with kalashnikovs and now they're ramping up. What will the US or NATO do if China does invade? You sound too confident and I would take that bet

You're not making much of a point here  As you may recall, not so long ago the Soviet Union invaded the country in a massive way and failed. Your characterization of the Afghanis as "cave dwellers" reveals some truth about yourself and nothing at all about them.

[bkkcanuck8]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:52 PM, CG1 Blue said:

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

The Chinese military is not battle tested.  I know it is not the same military but I also remember the Chinese / Vietnamese war and how badly that went against China...  It won't be likely a walk in the park, a lot of dead Chinese in the straight before they potentially get into a position to occupy Taiwan.

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 hours ago, Pravda said:

There's another developer in china missing on a 2 billion payment. 

 

This will get funny soon enough

Fantasia?

2 billion? What currency?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-property-default-risk-for-fantasia-sinic-amid-evergrande-crisis.html

 

[ourdon]

Some good news I hope

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.
 
"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

 

Hopefully we go back to 380 incursions a year.

 

[Cherrytreeview]

1 hour ago, ourdon said:

Some good news I hope

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.
 
"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

 

Hopefully we go back to 380 incursions a year.

 

China won't be doing anything about Taiwan.

China's all fur coat and no knickers.

They know the world is losing patience with them, so i think you might see the odious fascist CCP settle down and begin to play nicely with the other children.

[Kinnock]

On 10/4/2021 at 11:52 PM, CG1 Blue said:

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

It wouldn't be the first that economic woes at home prompted a totalitarian government to invade another country to distract and control a restless population.

[DaveSamutP]

On 10/4/2021 at 5:38 PM, Cake Monster said:

I thought that a statement was issued a few Days ago, which basically stated Thailand had very little exposure to the Evergrande melt down.

If Korn is sounding a warning, then I doubt this to be the case.

They'd no doubt have secret positions with such a large Sino entity. I have every expectation many Thais (private and institutions) have exposure to Evergrande directly.

 

There is also likely going to be contagion throughout the China banks and other real estate firms. 

 

Just yesterday, Fantasia, another big player, missed a payment. 

 

This is going to be big.

[DaveSamutP]

5 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The Chinese military is not battle tested.  I know it is not the same military but I also remember the Chinese / Vietnamese war and how badly that went against China...  It won't be likely a walk in the park, a lot of dead Chinese in the straight before they potentially get into a position to occupy Taiwan.

I feel like it could go either way. The key is what has been said by many respected China military and strategy analysts.  Who is hungrier for the win. China and the US could decide to be at war for a hundred years... leaving out any nuclear conflict, of course. 

 

Who has more patience and resolve? You could argue that it's China in this case.

 

I expect them to take Taiwan at some point. Might be 10 years, might be a 50 years. But, it's more important to them than it is to us.

[Eric Loh]

12 hours ago, Pravda said:

There's another developer in china missing on a 2 billion payment. 

 

This will get funny soon enough

There will be more developers missing on payments. Even before Evergrande's debt troubles, property firms were struggling to earn enough to make interest payments on their debts. In June, Reuters reported the aggregate interest coverage ratio of 21 big Chinese real estates developers listed in Hongkong fell to 0.94; a decade worst. China property market is real hot and becoming a bubble that worried the government. Government is pushing property firms to cut excessive borrowing and land buying. The crackdown hit these firms hard and limited their ability to re-finance maturing debt. Allowing defaults is a clear statement from the government that the want to deflate the housing bubble and they willing to let major developers failed. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 hours ago, ourdon said:

Some good news I hope

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.
 
"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

 

Hopefully we go back to 380 incursions a year.

 

What did Chamberlain say after he met Hitler?

Peace in our time!

[Cake Monster]

32 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

There will be more developers missing on payments. Even before Evergrande's debt troubles, property firms were struggling to earn enough to make interest payments on their debts. In June, Reuters reported the aggregate interest coverage ratio of 21 big Chinese real estates developers listed in Hongkong fell to 0.94; a decade worst. China property market is real hot and becoming a bubble that worried the government. Government is pushing property firms to cut excessive borrowing and land buying. The crackdown hit these firms hard and limited their ability to re-finance maturing debt. Allowing defaults is a clear statement from the government that the want to deflate the housing bubble and they willing to let major developers failed. 

One of the must be obeyed Golden Rules in any Business is, " dont try to become too big, too soon ".

All these Chinese developers have tried to ride a wave of Housing demand over the last Decade or so, and that has now dried up, leaving them with massive debt to service.

And if Thailands wealthy, and their large Companies are not directly exposed to this melt down in the Chinese Property Sector, then it will be the miracle of all miracles.

I think this is just the tip of the Iceberg, and we are going to hear of many more Company Melt downs going into the future, from many other sectors.

 

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, DaveSamutP said:

I feel like it could go either way. The key is what has been said by many respected China military and strategy analysts.  Who is hungrier for the win. China and the US could decide to be at war for a hundred years... leaving out any nuclear conflict, of course. 

 

Who has more patience and resolve? You could argue that it's China in this case.

 

I expect them to take Taiwan at some point. Might be 10 years, might be a 50 years. But, it's more important to them than it is to us.

It is not us vs them, it is China vs Taiwan - and Taiwan would be fighting for their lives...  I am not talking about the US taking direct action, they are an unreliable ally - you tie them down long and they tire of generational conflicts. 

Edited October 6, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[MarcelV]

11 hours ago, bangon04 said:

True.  The "normal" Germans did not resist the Nazi party and we all got hurt.

Will the "normal" Chinese people resist the CCP before it starts a war?

Will the "normal" Thai people bring down the PM and his accomplices before they bring down Thailand?

I'll let you answer.

[John Drake]

Seems to me that a lot of what Xi is doing is smart. Cutting the Tech giants down to size before they can try and control things as they do in the US. Paying off Evergrande domestic debtors last week and stiffing the foreign debtor means a controlled implosion for housing prices--he'll let the bubble ease as much as possible. And housing needs to come down in China. Too much inequality. Taking down the private educational businesses was another good move to make access to higher education more fair. And lastly he pulled the rug out from under the "sissy boys." I only wish the US had the guts to do half as much as Xi.

[bangon04]

11 hours ago, MarcelV said:

Will the "normal" Thai people bring down the PM and his accomplices before they bring down Thailand?

I'll let you answer.

Thailand's government is not a serious threat to the stability of the region, even when they have their Chinese submarines.... Thailand will muddle through as they usually do.

[nausea]

13 hours ago, John Drake said:

Seems to me that a lot of what Xi is doing is smart. Cutting the Tech giants down to size before they can try and control things as they do in the US. Paying off Evergrande domestic debtors last week and stiffing the foreign debtor means a controlled implosion for housing prices--he'll let the bubble ease as much as possible. And housing needs to come down in China. Too much inequality. Taking down the private educational businesses was another good move to make access to higher education more fair. And lastly he pulled the rug out from under the "sissy boys." I only wish the US had the guts to do half as much as Xi.

Interesting interpretation, always good to hear a contrarian view.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 10/6/2021 at 4:02 AM, bkkcanuck8 said:

The Chinese military is not battle tested.  I know it is not the same military but I also remember the Chinese / Vietnamese war and how badly that went against China...  It won't be likely a walk in the park, a lot of dead Chinese in the straight before they potentially get into a position to occupy Taiwan.

In 3-5 years it could be shown time.

Taiwan should pick up the phone and purchase a few nukes from Kim in North Korea, that will keep Xi in check.

 

“For our military the current situation is really the grimmest in the more than 40 years since I joined the service," Mr. Chiu said in a speech to Taiwan’s legislature on Wednesday.

 

China Would Be Able to Launch Attack on Taiwan by 2025, Island’s Defense Minister Warns https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-would-be-able-to-launch-attack-on-taiwan-by-2025-islands-defense-minister-warns-11633525206

[Hawaiian]

On 10/5/2021 at 3:58 AM, placeholder said:

But Xi has only recently cemented his power. And under him, China has gotten a lot more aggressive and a lot more jingoistic.

Now he making a move to control one of the elements he officially has no authority over, the police.

[Hawaiian]

On 10/5/2021 at 3:43 PM, Cherrytreeview said:

China won't be doing anything about Taiwan.

China's all fur coat and no knickers.

They know the world is losing patience with them, so i think you might see the odious fascist CCP settle down and begin to play nicely with the other children.

Xi really does not know what the response will be from the U.S. and its allies should he decide to invade Taiwan.  Even if a confrontation does not involve nuclear weapons the fallout could devastate China's economy and it's Belt Road Initiative would most likely come to a screeching halt.  Is Xi willing to take the gamble?

[Cherrytreeview]

39 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Xi really does not know what the response will be from the U.S. and its allies should he decide to invade Taiwan.  Even if a confrontation does not involve nuclear weapons the fallout could devastate China's economy and it's Belt Road Initiative would most likely come to a screeching halt.  Is Xi willing to take the gamble?

Xi and Biden are due to hold a zoom meeting later.

A lot of US and allied ships in the area now as well.

 

[Hawaiian]

12 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Xi and Biden are due to hold a zoom meeting later.

A lot of US and allied ships in the area now as well.

 

Xi cannot be trusted and Biden is not very creditable.  The $64 question is will the U.S. and allied forces fire a shot unless actually shot at.

[bkkcanuck8]

7 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Xi cannot be trusted and Biden is not very creditable.  The $64 question is will the U.S. and allied forces fire a shot unless actually shot at.

I don't know whether Biden can be trusted... I would not trust any American leaders assurances these days... but he could not be worse than Trump for the Asia-Pacific region - the US basically abandoned the region to China during Trump's presidency... Biden at least seems to be taking a greater interest in the region lately... though the damage done would take decades to repair with consistent foreign policy etc.  and I don't see that happening.

[bkkcanuck8]

On 10/4/2021 at 5:40 AM, Cherrytreeview said:

Oh dear.

The boards loyal band of CCP apologists will be along soon to put a spin on this.

A country and economy built on sand.

 

Evergrande set to raise more cash from partial sale of its property services unit

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/evergrande-set-to-sell-part-of-stake-in-property-services-unit.html?__source=androidappshare

 

For normal economies, this would be a very bad sign indeed.  The development side is very cyclical, but the services side would be a counter balance to flatten out the highs and lows and provide some liquidity during the down years.  I doubt the proceeds will do much to fix the problem with being overleveraged and built like a house of cards.

[jacko45k]

On 10/6/2021 at 8:43 AM, Cherrytreeview said:

They know the world is losing patience with them, so i think you might see the odious fascist CCP settle down and begin to play nicely with the other children.

Maybe why they keep flying military jets over Taiwan.

[placeholder]

On 10/7/2021 at 3:23 AM, nausea said:

Interesting interpretation, always good to hear a contrarian view.

Especially the homophobia. Because gayness is such a threat to the moral fiber of the Chinese people. 

[Hawaiian]

22 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I don't know whether Biden can be trusted... I would not trust any American leaders assurances these days... but he could not be worse than Trump for the Asia-Pacific region - the US basically abandoned the region to China during Trump's presidency... Biden at least seems to be taking a greater interest in the region lately... though the damage done would take decades to repair with consistent foreign policy etc.  and I don't see that happening. 

I believe Xi feared Trump because he was characterized as being unpredictable.  Trump said and did things that no other U.S. president in recent times would ever think of doing.  He started a trade war with China that had mixed results.  He accused U.S. allies of not standing up to China and complained that NATO members were not meeting their financial obligations.  Trump promoted a strong military and I believe would not have hesitated to come to Taiwan's aid if they were attacked. I disagree that Trump neglected the Asia-Pacific region. 

[bkkcanuck8]

2 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

I believe Xi feared Trump because he was characterized as being unpredictable.  Trump said and did things that no other U.S. president in recent times would ever think of doing.  He started a trade war with China that had mixed results.  He accused U.S. allies of not standing up to China and complained that NATO members were not meeting their financial obligations.  Trump promoted a strong military and I believe would not have hesitated to come to Taiwan's aid if they were attacked. I disagree that Trump neglected the Asia-Pacific region. 

Trump was unpredictable and that could have consequences, but US trade sanctions on China did as much damage to the US as it did to China (maybe even more).  China was still preferring Trump get re-elected though because whatever damage was done between the US and China paled on what was being done to international relations by the US - and that was a big benefit to the Chinese foreign policy.  Unpredictable yes, but still a net win for China.

[placnx]

On 10/6/2021 at 7:23 AM, ourdon said:

Some good news I hope

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Taiwan and they agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement.
 
"I've spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree ... we'll abide by the Taiwan agreement," he said. "We made it clear that I don't think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement."

 

Hopefully we go back to 380 incursions a year.

 

The agreement has different interpretations. US reads it as peaceful reunification whereas the latest Chinese government spin is that "peaceful" includes various forms of coercion, no doubt including blockade.

[placnx]

On 10/6/2021 at 9:34 AM, DaveSamutP said:

They'd no doubt have secret positions with such a large Sino entity. I have every expectation many Thais (private and institutions) have exposure to Evergrande directly.

 

There is also likely going to be contagion throughout the China banks and other real estate firms. 

 

Just yesterday, Fantasia, another big player, missed a payment. 

 

This is going to be big.

Maybe they lent money to relatives in the Fatherland to buy second or third condo.