Thailand: International Tourism May Take Years To Recover – Analysis

[Jonathan Fairfield]

 

By Murray Hunter

 

With nearly 20 percent of Thailand’s pre-Covid crisis GDP related to tourism, the partial reopening of country’s borders on November 1 to international tourism was a risky move aimed at turning around the economy. 

 

There has been a whole range of guesstimates made by the Tourist Authority of Thailand (TAT) about how many tourists will visit Thailand in 2021 and 2022, that have been optimistically predicted. However, these have been based more on hope than the reality of an unpredictable tourism environment because of surging worldwide Covid-19 cases and corresponding border restrictions across much of the world. 

 

The partial opening of borders to visitors from 63 countries, comes at a time when bars, entertainment businesses remain closed across the country, and restaurants in most parts of the country are not allowed to serve liquor with meals. 

 

The supposedly quarantine free entry for fully vaccinated foreign visitors, has been found not to be completely true as visitors are required to stay in isolation up to 30 hours in hotel quarantine, until their Covid test results come through. There is a host of paperwork and procedures required to enter Thailand, which include full vaccination certificates, a pre-paid hotel booking, USD 50,000 health insurance policy covering Covid-19 and the Thailand Pass, applied for online. The Thailand Pass website has been criticized by applicants for glitches and approval delays. As on November 4, some 50,000 applications were made, with 12,607 approvals.  

 

Full story: https://www.eurasiareview.com/13112021-thailand-international-tourism-may-take-years-to-recover-analysis/

 

-- Eurasia Review 2021-11-13

[Will B Good]

Good article.......could have been written by (m)any of the people who frequently post on TV.

[sezze]

Tomorrow , new estimates ... 10 million visitors by April 2022 expected .

For the real latest estimates , i think was 1 million visitors by April , if im correct ? 50.000 applications were made , knowing who it is , nobody of them would be real tourists , and also knowing that these were people who couldn't wait to come Thailand . It is like the opening of a new bar/shop/... 1st days are busy , after it falls back to more normal numbers . I think they must be lucky if they get 300-400k

[Karma80]

This shouldn't be news to anyone and you could insert any countries name into that article heading.

Global mass tourism will take years to recover, if it returns to pre-pandemic levels at all.

 

[Gsxrnz]

History shows that It typically takes a decade to show signs of economic and social recovery from any man made disaster.

 

But somehow I think this one is different - the world's population en masse have permitted their freedoms to be removed globally in an unprecedented fashion and there are no George Washinton's or Winston Churchill's around to do something about it.

 

We have Biden, Boris, and Putin and the lesser minions such as my PM Goddess Jacinda Ardern. Hardly the first ones you'd be choosing for your team in a game of British-Bulldog....oh wait, the Matriarchal Hierarchy already banned that didn't they.

 

Basically, and without putting too fine a point on it, we're muggered until a new Robin of Sherwood appears circa 2040.

[RmcaIssan]

39 minutes ago, sezze said:

Tomorrow , new estimates ... 10 million visitors by April 2022 expected .

For the real latest estimates , i think was 1 million visitors by April , if im correct ? 50.000 applications were made , knowing who it is , nobody of them would be real tourists , and also knowing that these were people who couldn't wait to come Thailand . It is like the opening of a new bar/shop/... 1st days are busy , after it falls back to more normal numbers . I think they must be lucky if they get 300-400k

Again, many are guys trying to get back ..I know of 3 arriving next week. 

Also trade reps to gauge current status ..

Many traditional tourists would have plans of a multi country visit (Cambodia, Laos,  Vietnam etc.) this is not possible ..

Any visit now represents a 'loss' of 3 days of holidays (travel, quarantine, travel on ..) with 'the sword of Damocles' risk of positive PCR test on arrival

Finally an additional cost of 15/20k bt on 'norm' holiday costs

 

 

 

 

[Boomer6969]

48 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

Good article.......could have been written by (m)any of the people who frequently post on TV.

Thanks, so I won't read it, as I can assume it says that the November 1 "reopening" was indeed a bad case of premature ejaculation which might impair subsequent intercourse with foreign visitors.

[Captain Monday]

9 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

History shows that It typically takes a decade to show signs of economic and social recovery from any man made disaster.

 

But somehow I think this one is different - the world's population en masse have permitted their freedoms to be removed globally in an unprecedented fashion and there are no George Washinton's or Winston Churchill's around to do something about it.

 

We have Biden, Boris, and Putin and the lesser minions such as my PM Goddess Jacinda Ardern. Hardly the first ones you'd be choosing for your team in a game of British-Bulldog....oh wait, the Matriarchal Hierarchy already banned that didn't they.

 

Basically, and without putting too fine a point on it, we're muggered until a new Robin of Sherwood appears circa 2040.

In 10 years Thailand will be awash with restrictions resembling Burma. The few Elites will be rich and powerful beyond their wildest dreams. No tourists will want to come other than from even more dull regions resembling a central Asian dictatorship.  In groups, following flags. 

[RmcaIssan]

Initial post ..perfect summary.

Music festival in Pattaya last week ..all bars closed ..well unless to watch football in a bar it will be food and a soft drink .. Pattaya it's is decimated.

[HashBrownHarry]

But really, if you're not involved with or don't live in a tourist dense area of Thailand, the lack of tourism or the restrictions are IMO negligible.

 

 

[Chad3000]

I won't travel or leave and re enter any county I'm at risk of being incarcerated especially at my cost and double especially if I've tested negative.

 

I'm not happy with the onerous restrictions to take PCR test 72hrs prior to departure. I'm fine with a few ATK tests.

 

I'm very not ok with scammy Thai insurance requirement in general. Obviously won't pay for asymptomatic hospitalization. This should be covered in the pilfered 500b mystery charge.

 

Thailand is no place for retirees or visitors. The total disconnect between requiring insurance and for all intents and purposes not providing insurance policies is stunningly vapid. But when we're Thai authorities concerned the least bit about farang except to separate them from their money as quickly as possible and send them home.

 

My plan is to take my Thai wife to Europe 1-2 times, return to States a few times. If housing falls in states we very well may move to States.

 

International travel is finished. Thank the climate change crowd.

 

Traveling to or through Thailand is a headache I see fforeve bc covid is forever ¥€¢£$

 

I'm also sick and tired of stupid in person 90 day reports as well as annual extensions half ream of documents and stupid photos almost none of which changes and all could be stored in computer ssystem REENTRY permits. Feeding an army of bureaucrats and paper pushers

 

Rant over

Edited November 14, 2021 by Chad3000

[Bluetongue]

I read it. There is not much in there that hasn't already been well and truly discussed on this board. What will happen is another easing of entry restrictions at some time, whether tomorrow, next month or next year. You can bet there will still be some bizarre requirement still in there somewhere. In particular as I've said before the insurance. Also the continuing closure of entertainment is a can that's just been kicked down the road some more. In the meantime there will only be a trickle of tourists. Short haul destinations that are freely open to people from Europe and the US will do better. Depending on how the next phase of the panendemic unfolds, we might be discussing a better high season this time next year.

 

Of more concern really is the junta's continuing disregard of the Thai people, whom they do not have to support because they don't face genuine elections. There was a huge opportunity to revamp a lot of things, instead of them taking it, it would appear that nothing much will change for the better as far as people like us are concerned. Much thought rattling around in this head refining plan B. I too do not want to be jumping through bureaucratic hoops into my 70s.

[Kadilo]

3 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Good article.......could have been written by (m)any of the people who frequently post on TV.

I’ll give it a miss then ????

Edited November 14, 2021 by Kadilo

[Pedrogaz]

To assess the recovery of tourism one needs to analyse the reasons why it is down.....yes, the pandemic. What is Thailand's share of the international travel market by people and by money; and by the sub market of long haul destinations? This is key to developing strategies. Also in developing models one needs to look for other countries response and try to draw parallels to assess the impact of different variables such as the ThaiPass debacles; the useless communications plan where everybody spots of different ideas as thought they were policy decisions. I do feel that the uncertainty around Thai immigration policies and the fact that you may get stuck here or at your destination will be a significant factor in the speed of the recovery. If Thailand sticks with its ridiculous bureaucracy and everyone else has simple and easy immigration procedures then it is RIP to international tourism here.

[Nabby]

International tourism to Thailand is dead. It is going to take many people a long time to come to this realization. It's finished. Sayonara. 

[kevin612]

Especially with Thailand pass, it will take longer.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

There has been a whole range of guesstimates made by the Tourist Authority of Thailand (TAT) about how many tourists will visit Thailand in 2021 and 2022, that have been optimistically predicted. However, these have been based more on hope than the reality of an unpredictable tourism environment because of surging worldwide Covid-19 cases and corresponding border restrictions across much of the world

Delete "may" and insert "will".. 

[khunpa]

5 minutes ago, Nabby said:

International tourism to Thailand is dead. It is going to take many people a long time to come to this realization. It's finished. Sayonara. 

Agree. It has even been in decline pre-covid and especially since the coup in 2014.

 

Unfortunately, Covid closed down the inflow of Chinese Group Tours, which is what this government really wants. Great financial benefits for the few involved.

 

With no political changes in sight, I see Thailand facing not only more financial trouble, but also becoming more closed to especially the surrounding None-Asian world.

 

Those in power will however become extremely rich over the coming years and the poor only suffers more.

 

We all know that blaming others is an important way to save face here. So would not be surprised if “the white people”, will end up being blamed for most of it.

 

 

[tomacht8]

Pretty good article. Three thoughts.

1. The economic effects come with a time lag and will hurt. The fact that the millions - formerly employed in the tourism sector - now operate micro-businesses in their villages does not bring much economic benefit. That the rural population cut hair, sell iced coffee and noodle soups to each other. Oh well. This will certainly not lead to demand in the manufacturer sector (cars, motorcycles, smartphones, computers, refrigerators, TVs, washing machines, furniture). On the contrary, loans can no longer be paid for and debt is growing rapidly. And the thin middle class in the cities also has problems paying their loans. Many don't even have the money to fill up their leased cars.

The rental income for shops, apartment buildings and hotel owners is falling. Even many of the burger chains, 7-11, family markets are closing shops. 

2. That domestic tourism ((2022: 25 million) (2021: 2.4 million)) will keep the tourism industry alive in 2022 is more than questionable. Of course there will still be Thais who drive to the sea in a fully occupied car, rent a room for 400 baht and buy the most essential items at 7-11. But the current economy does not provide enough free income for the masses. Free income is concentrated in only a few elites. Poverty will continue to increase and the gap between rich and poor will widen.

3. To revive international tourism, Thailand has done some right and done a lot wrong. It is clear that if you have built a tourist capacity for 40 million in 2019 that this cannot be compensated for in 2021. But the numbers that are now likely to be achieved are far too low and a lot more would have been possible. In 2021 many tourism dependent countries tried to find new ways. Corvid is the bottleneck, but some decisions by the elite have clogged this bottleneck even more.

Thailand is about to lose its touristic USP.

[Gecko123]

4 hours ago, Chad3000 said:

International travel is finished. Thank the climate change crowd.

Warmer winters in northern climes making winter-time travel to tropical destinations less desirable? Extreme weather events (flash flooding, drought, heat waves, hurricanes, forest fires) making travel more risky? Sea level rise eroding away beaches and coastline vistas at holiday destinations? Weather so hot planes can't take off? Tropical destinations becoming more arid, dusty and parched? Seems like climate change itself is doing a good job on its own inhibiting environmentally unsustainable international travel. I hope you're not blaming Greta Thunberg for sounding the alarm bells.

 

When you think about it, a lot of travel is about ego and status. Something to brag about around the water-cooler when you get back from your two week vacation, or to post on your Instagram feed. From a personal growth and life experience standpoint, how much does travel really have to offer? Waiting in line at the Louvre, craning your neck to catch a glimpse of the Mona Lisa, and afterwards eating a plate of pasta which probably came out of a microwave pouch prepared in an industrial factory in the outskirts of Toulouse?

 

Thailand doesn't seem to have yet grasped that even if Covid-19 went away tomorrow, there's been a paradigm shift in people's awareness about the sustainability of a tourism industry built on people taking beach vacations halfway around the world. There's 7.75 billion people on the planet. Imagine if each of them traveled half way around the globe and back every year. It's just not sustainable.

 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Gecko123

[Zikomat]

4 hours ago, RmcaIssan said:

Initial post ..perfect summary.

Music festival in Pattaya last week ..all bars closed ..well unless to watch football in a bar it will be food and a soft drink .. Pattaya it's is decimated.

These festivals are organised for the Bangkok people who never visit Pattaya bars and agogos anyway. Many more mass events  planned for the Bangkok visitors to Pattaya this month (fireworks etc.). 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2021 by Zikomat

[Stargeezr]

I agree, at least 10 years to recover, and for Thailand it likely will never get back

to the last couple years before COVID hit.

  Same goes for the rest of the world though as well.

Geezer

 

[Isaan sailor]

With a steadily rising Baht, it doesn’t look good for international tourism, local expats or even exports.  Fix the Baht first.  Then things will start to improve.

[PranBuriThai]

As obvious as the nose on your face.

Only people who can't see it are the resident Thai huggers on the forum.

Thailand is going to pursue a very aggressive near zero approach to Covid.

 

[Will B Good]

4 minutes ago, PranBuriThai said:

Thailand is going to pursue a very aggressive near zero approach to Covid.

Haven't they just opened up air travel to/from some of the most highly infected countries in the world.......UK for one!

 

Doesn't strike me as being a "very aggressive near zero approach to Covid".

 

Wait on....is this sarcasm?

Edited November 14, 2021 by Will B Good

[PranBuriThai]

1 minute ago, Will B Good said:

Haven't they just opened up air travel to/from some of the most highly infected countries in the world.......UK for one!

 

Doesn't strike me as being a "very aggressive near zero approach to Covid".

 

Wait on....is this sarcasm?

Your tested on arrival, quarantined for one night and taken to hospital if you, or the people near you on your flight, test positive.

That's why nobody is coming to Thailand.

Newsflash!!!!

Nightlife not officially opening until (possibly) 15th January.

Newsflash!!!!

Many people cancel or postpone their trip.

[brucegoniners]

Yup. If you wrote a script how to screw this up it couldn't have been done any worse. And they're not done yet.

[ourmanflint]

59 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

With a steadily rising Baht, it doesn’t look good for international tourism, local expats or even exports.  Fix the Baht first.  Then things will start to improve.

Yup! This is a major hurdle to any recovery for tourist sector and exports

[daveAustin]

It’ll never recover pre-pandemic levels. People just won’t want to travel as much due to the worry of covid, the hassle and rising air fares. What’s the point? Going forward, It will mostly be Chinese groups visiting a sterile, overly-policed state, which is what they want. 

[Will B Good]

1 hour ago, PranBuriThai said:

Your tested on arrival, quarantined for one night and taken to hospital if you, or the people near you on your flight, test positive.

That's why nobody is coming to Thailand.

Newsflash!!!!

Nightlife not officially opening until (possibly) 15th January.

Newsflash!!!!

Many people cancel or postpone their trip.

I read there were 6 million coming from the UK Q4.