SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[partington]

21 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

 

 

Viruses like anything else, want to survive.

Killing your host, is not good for long term survival.

Mutations, over time, get weaker and weaker, and more easily transmittable. "excluding sci-fi movies of course!"

Over time, the weaker, more transmittable, simply out-compete the earlier more dangerous variants.

 

 

 

The idea that viruses become less virulent or cause less disease over time is a myth. If a virus is mostly transmitted or transmissible before you become seriously ill or die then that is all the virus needs to do.

 

Many of the symptoms of viral diseases happen in order to transmit the virus effectively. Sneezing, coughing, runny noses, diarrhea, all cause body fluids full of viruses to be discharged into the environment and therefore enhance the ability to infect others. This is what the symptoms are for.

 

Smallpox, Dengue, AIDS, Yellow fever, Ebola, Polio, Meningitis have not evolved to become less dangerous over time (they have become less serious as a direct result of major human interventions such as vaccination and development of effective drug treatments).

 

Here is a link to a Guardian article explaining this and an extract

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/what-does-the-future-hold-for-coronavirus-explainer

"A recurring suggestion is that pathogens evolve, over some undefined period, to be more transmissible and less virulent, bringing virus and host towards a state of benign coexistence. If Omicron is spreading so quickly, some wondered, perhaps it will at least be milder. But experts say this expectation has no scientific basis. “Put simply, this has been one of the most baffling misinformation myths peddled during the pandemic,” said Prof Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham. “There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence.

 

The simplistic argument behind the idea is that if a pathogen kills its host, or makes them too sick to leave the house, then it gives itself a worse chance of propagating. So by the logic of survival of the fittest, there would be a selective pressure for milder strains. Sadly, the dynamic is more complex in the real world. [...]

 

In the case of coronavirus, there is also an obvious hole in the argument: transmission normally occurs before symptoms start or during the earliest stage of symptoms, meaning that severity of illness has little influence on the spread of the virus.”

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by partington

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, Thunglom said:

No it isn't - we already know a hi=uge mount about both Covid and viruses - By looking at the virus we can make some pretty good focuses. It is best to take precautions now and if the figures show this to be necessary that they can be relaxed.

 

sort out typos for those confused...

 

 

No it isn't - we already know a huge amount about both Covid and viruses - By looking at the virus we can make some pretty good forecasts. It is best to take precautions now and if the figures show this not necessary then they can be relaxed.

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Thunglom

[Thunglom]

22 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

Viruses like anything else, want to survive.

Killing your host, is not good for long term survival.

Mutations, over time, get weaker and weaker, and more easily transmittable. "excluding sci-fi movies of course!"

Over time, the weaker, more transmittable, simply out-compete the earlier more dangerous variants.

 

This is how the world eventually climbed out of the 1917 pandemic.

This is how this one will end.

you've only got a partial picture.

Visas mutate at random - they may be successful or not and they may become more virulent.

Deaths for viruses and bacteria are usually more a biological accident than an intended result, but if the virus can transmit before te host dies, that is perfectly OK for the virus.

All animals react differently to twins and pathogens and a virus doesn't know this - it just randomly mutated - some mutations of Covid have not even been discussed because they were posing no treat - looking at this one it does.

 

As a nexaple oe how different reactions to any toxin cn be - take the funnel web spider - it has a bit designed to immobilise beetles - however it has a profound effect on humans but no effect whatsoever on cats. Living organisms are not machines - even transmission between species is usually not possible but every now and then a jump happens and rthw result on the new species are quite different.

 

the virus that caused the early nineteenth C flu was a different virus and medical knowledge was considerably less than now. It has been suggested that it mutated out of existence but this was not so much inevitable as random luck - 

 

The problem with Omicron is that they have looked at the structure and with established knowledge of how viruses transmit, this variation has all the prerequisites for being highly transmissible - how nasty any infections will be are yet to be established.

[TorquayFan]

In Pfizer vaxed people, Omicron may be an almost unbelievable 97.5% LESS effective or have just 2.5% of it's effectiveness, in comparison to say 'Delta' ? Daunting indeed at first sight but more data is needed of course.

Here's an NBC report : "The Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine appears to be less effective against the heavily mutated omicron variant of the coronavirus, according to early data from South Africa posted Tuesday. Researchers from the Africa Health Research Institute found that there was about a fortyfold reduction in vaccine-induced antibodies that could neutralize the new variant, which has been detected in several countries and in at least 19 states.

"The omicron variant appeared to be even more skilled at evading the antibodies generated by the Pfizer vaccine than the beta variant, which was also first identified in South Africa, the researchers said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-vaccine-may-less-effective-omicron-early-lab-data-finds-rcna7938

Edited December 8, 2021 by Scott
Edited for Fair Use

[Scott]

A post has been edited for Fair Use.  Please do not post more than a headline, 3 sentences and then a link to the article.

 

[Trvlr55]

On 12/6/2021 at 2:17 PM, Thunglom said:

so what do you suggest is the right course to take - in Thailand?

 

What I would suggest??

 

Maybe that the entire world stop hyperventilating on every press announcement, after almost 2 years... would be an excellent start.

Still as of today, as when I originally posted, cases are still very, very mild, or non-existent. < stock market today was way way up on the same news >

Now the latest news, is this variant, most likely did not originate in South Africa, and why it's now been found in so many countries already, they were just the unfortunate country to detect & report it.

 

This variant, might possibly be the end of the covid death spiral. If it manages to take over as the dominant variant.

If this happens, and there is a better chance of it that the world coming to an end tomorrow... Who would want to keep the entire world shutdown for something less that a mild cold?

 

The PM came out, a month or so ago, and stated it was now time to start living with Covid, and not attempting to wipe it off the face of the earth.

That can't be done, it's endemic everywhere. Probably require another booster, or hopefully something comes out more permanent soon. How we start to live with it, is to end these useless shutdowns, ease restrictions, and start getting back to a more normal life. I thought the PM's suggestion was the correct one, and properly timed.

 

[Trvlr55]

On 12/6/2021 at 6:42 PM, Jeffr2 said:

This doctor is seeing a very limited number of patients, all of whom are young.  Hardly representative of the global population.  And even she says it's too early to tell.

 

What's true is the rapid rise in cases and hospitalizations.  More hospitalizations typically equate to more deaths.  Again, too early to tell, but we do know it's more transmissible.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/06/africa/south-africa-omicron-covid-surge-intl/index.html

 

South Africans brace for the worst amid Omicron surge

 

On Friday, it surpassed the 3 million Covid-19 case mark as infections soar throughout the country, days after health officials warned the world about the potentially more contagious Omicron variant. It is now dominating daily infections which have increased five-fold in just one week, President Cyril Ramaphosa said Monday in his weekly newsletter, adding that nearly a quarter of all Covid-19 tests were coming back positive.

completely incorrect about the new variant.... just wrong.  Time will tell is all I can say here. Some have seen the end of the world everyday for 2 years.

a new a much much weaker variant does not equal more deaths.

you might want to read up on the 1917 flu pandemic. Here's a clue: it did not end from shutdowns. it did not end from new miracle vaccines, it ended with a much much weaker variant overtaking the older variants.

[Trvlr55]

15 hours ago, partington said:

The idea that viruses become less virulent or cause less disease over time is a myth. If a virus is mostly transmitted or transmissible before you become seriously ill or die then that is all the virus needs to do.

 

Many of the symptoms of viral diseases happen in order to transmit the virus effectively. Sneezing, coughing, runny noses, diarrhea, all cause body fluids full of viruses to be discharged into the environment and therefore enhance the ability to infect others. This is what the symptoms are for.

 

Smallpox, Dengue, AIDS, Yellow fever, Ebola, Polio, Meningitis have not evolved to become less dangerous over time (they have become less serious as a direct result of major human interventions such as vaccination and development of effective drug treatments).

 

Here is a link to a Guardian article explaining this and an extract

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/03/what-does-the-future-hold-for-coronavirus-explainer

"A recurring suggestion is that pathogens evolve, over some undefined period, to be more transmissible and less virulent, bringing virus and host towards a state of benign coexistence. If Omicron is spreading so quickly, some wondered, perhaps it will at least be milder. But experts say this expectation has no scientific basis. “Put simply, this has been one of the most baffling misinformation myths peddled during the pandemic,” said Prof Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham. “There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence.

 

The simplistic argument behind the idea is that if a pathogen kills its host, or makes them too sick to leave the house, then it gives itself a worse chance of propagating. So by the logic of survival of the fittest, there would be a selective pressure for milder strains. Sadly, the dynamic is more complex in the real world. [...]

 

In the case of coronavirus, there is also an obvious hole in the argument: transmission normally occurs before symptoms start or during the earliest stage of symptoms, meaning that severity of illness has little influence on the spread of the virus.”

 

it is not a myth. you can quote all you wish from run of the mill reporters, who do little or no research.

[Trvlr55]

15 hours ago, Thunglom said:

you've only got a partial picture.

Visas mutate at random - they may be successful or not and they may become more virulent.

Deaths for viruses and bacteria are usually more a biological accident than an intended result, but if the virus can transmit before te host dies, that is perfectly OK for the virus.

All animals react differently to twins and pathogens and a virus doesn't know this - it just randomly mutated - some mutations of Covid have not even been discussed because they were posing no treat - looking at this one it does.

 

As a nexaple oe how different reactions to any toxin cn be - take the funnel web spider - it has a bit designed to immobilise beetles - however it has a profound effect on humans but no effect whatsoever on cats. Living organisms are not machines - even transmission between species is usually not possible but every now and then a jump happens and rthw result on the new species are quite different.

 

the virus that caused the early nineteenth C flu was a different virus and medical knowledge was considerably less than now. It has been suggested that it mutated out of existence but this was not so much inevitable as random luck - 

 

The problem with Omicron is that they have looked at the structure and with established knowledge of how viruses transmit, this variation has all the prerequisites for being highly transmissible - how nasty any infections will be are yet to be established.

finally someone that has some understanding of how things actually work, and not hyperventilating over random news.

 

correct they mutate at random, but normally there is a trade off; a variant that is more deadly, normally doesn't have the original admissibility,

and the ones that are more transmissible, are not as deadly. All accounts so far is, that it is much weaker, and more transmittable, as originally reported. Now we are dealing with a milder variant, luckily.

 

I've watched US CDC director being questioned one on one by press, and asked directly about hospitalizations, and he changes the subject every time. If there were a lot of hospitalizations due to the new variant, we should be hearing of them by now; the normal rabble of mindless reporters looking for a "quick-fix" news article would be all over it.

 

as for the "early nineteenth C flu", it has been suggested that it mutated out of existence, because that is the most plausible idea.

Is there a plausible other reason(s)??   And with medical knowledge being what it was at the time, If people started getting mild cramps and/or headaches, and flu cases started dropping, they'd probably conclude the pandemic was over. they'd have no idea it was still the "flu", also they wouldn't care mych I think.

 

Cambodia has recently changed to only reporting hospitalizations, and deaths "both quite low"; asymptomatic and mild cases are no longer a concern. This is where the world should be heading, moving to living with Covid, not on a useless exercise to eradicate Covid.

 

It's here to stay, for the foreseeable future. i.e. forever.  it's endemic worldwide.

 

[partington]

7 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

it is not a myth. you can quote all you wish from run of the mill reporters, who do little or no research.

“Put simply, this has been one of the most baffling misinformation myths peddled during the pandemic,” said Prof Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham. “There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence.

 

 

Microevolution and virulence of dengue viruses.

Advances Virus Research. (2003) 59:315-41. doi: 10.1016/s0065-3527(03)59009-Rebeca Rico-Hesse, Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas 78227, USA.

" As to the question of whether dengue viruses are evolving toward virulence as they continue to spread throughout the world, phylogenetic and epidemiological analyses suggest that the more virulent genotypes are now displacing those that have lower epidemiological impact; there is no evidence for the transmission of antigenically aberrant, new strains"

Edited December 8, 2021 by partington

[mommysboy]

On 12/7/2021 at 8:04 PM, Thunglom said:

sort out typos for those confused...

 

 

No it isn't - we already know a huge amount about both Covid and viruses - By looking at the virus we can make some pretty good forecasts. It is best to take precautions now and if the figures show this not necessary then they can be relaxed.

 

Nobody was confused.  We don't know much about the omicron variant!

[Thunglom]

I would say the most worrying thing so far about Omicron is it's performance  against Pfizer vaccine, which sounds ominous.

The thing about Omicron is the information is being released very slowly to avert panic. ..but the fact it is the first variant to be picked out since Delta is a matter for concern. The obvious major concern is the effectiveness of vaccines - this is not abnormal - flu t=requires a new vaccine every year - so it's entirely possible Covid could need the same - lets just hope they come up with one quickly as possible.

in te mean time, I repeat, we should err on te side of caution.

[Thunglom]

12 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

it has been suggested that it mutated out of existence, because that is the most plausible idea.

Is there a plausible other reason(s)??  

As we are not even sure it was a flu virus there is little understanding of what happened - it ay have changed or it is possible that herd immunity was enough to put it to rest. There is a lot of evidence to suggest it was a corona virus.

[Thunglom]

13 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

Now the latest news, is this variant, most likely did not originate in South Africa,

not the "latest" - it was never suggested it "came from" Both Africa - it was first IDENTIFIED there and for good reason. S.A. is one of the few countries able to ID such viruses.

[DonniePeverley]

Looks very bleak news, especially news 2 shots doesn't help much. Hopefully Thailand has another 60 million doses of vaccine. 

[Thunglom]

When I first heard the Omicron virus announced it concerned me that it was very different from the previous announcements surrounding any of the other variant strains - including delta.  I think despite the lack of "concrete" information, the authorities are treating this with kid gloves. Partly at least to avoid world-scale panic. This is a major variation and potentially VERY dangerous. It could set us back to square one if it isn't handled properly.

Edited December 8, 2021 by Thunglom

[Thunglom]

2 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Nobody was confused.  We don't know much about the omicron variant!

I think those studying the virus have a damned good idea about it and where it can go. They don't have the peer reviewed papers yet, but knowledge of how tis virus works is way bigger than it was at the start and they have become very "good guessers".... and accurate too.

[Scott]

4 hours ago, Thunglom said:

I think those studying the virus have a damned good idea about it and where it can go. They don't have the peer reviewed papers yet, but knowledge of how tis virus works is way bigger than it was at the start and they have become very "good guessers".... and accurate too.

I tend to agree that they have a lot of knowledge about this virus but there are questions how the various mutations on the virus will effect people in real life situations.  For example, part of new genetic material MAY have come from our own genome.  Part of it may come from the common cold, at least those colds caused by coronaviruses and part of it may have come from HIV virus. 

If it incorporates some material from the human genome, that could help evade our immune response -- our body would identify it as being a part of us rather than a pathogen.  

 

That said, we can hope that it is indeed milder and that we can move on from drastic measures to deal with the pandemic.

[Scott]

Troll post removed. 

 

[Virt]

23 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

completely incorrect about the new variant.... just wrong.  Time will tell is all I can say here. Some have seen the end of the world everyday for 2 years.

a new a much much weaker variant does not equal more deaths.

you might want to read up on the 1917 flu pandemic. Here's a clue: it did not end from shutdowns. it did not end from new miracle vaccines, it ended with a much much weaker variant overtaking the older variants.

This article has a graph, which explains why a more transmissible but milder virus might end up causing more deaths.

 

So we're are not out of the woods yet, and i still think it's best to receive the vaccine to try and reduce the submissions to hospitals if it turns out omicron is much more transmissible and the exponential growth will result in more hospitalisations.

 

https://projectprotech.ca/community-news/omicron-variant-will-likely-be-worse-than-delta-according-to-early-research/

 

[Trvlr55]

On 12/8/2021 at 6:18 AM, partington said:

“Put simply, this has been one of the most baffling misinformation myths peddled during the pandemic,” said Prof Alan McNally, director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham. “There is almost no evidence of any human pathogenic virus evolving towards reduced virulence.

 

 

Microevolution and virulence of dengue viruses.

Advances Virus Research. (2003) 59:315-41. doi: 10.1016/s0065-3527(03)59009-Rebeca Rico-Hesse, Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas 78227, USA.

" As to the question of whether dengue viruses are evolving toward virulence as they continue to spread throughout the world, phylogenetic and epidemiological analyses suggest that the more virulent genotypes are now displacing those that have lower epidemiological impact; there is no evidence for the transmission of antigenically aberrant, new strains"

Then explain how the 1917 Flu pandemic ended... There was no miracle vaccine.  Scientist love to say something is not true because it was not studied. But in 1917 there was no capacity to made a study of this nature. It didn't get bored and die of loneliness. It did not go away from herd immunity. Just one reasonable way it ended, just one please!!

 

15 years ago, globally scientists were fond of stating there was no evidence, at all, that there were planets in any other solar system besides ours.

Of course they failed to point out that the technology to find them did not yet exist.

A few years later several methods were created, and now there's thousands of them, everywhere.

[Trvlr55]

On 12/8/2021 at 12:30 PM, Thunglom said:

not the "latest" - it was never suggested it "came from" Both Africa - it was first IDENTIFIED there and for good reason. S.A. is one of the few countries able to ID such viruses.

several media sources suggested it, hence the removal of South Africa from many countries for travel.

[Trvlr55]

On 12/8/2021 at 12:28 PM, Thunglom said:

As we are not even sure it was a flu virus there is little understanding of what happened - it ay have changed or it is possible that herd immunity was enough to put it to rest. There is a lot of evidence to suggest it was a corona virus.

wow you are really really out there dude.

then just to play along... how did it go away?? all by itself, and felt abused because nobody recognized it.

These things do not just go away. again one plausible reason.

[sirineou]

Not sure what this poll is trying to accomplish. 

It is certainly a new variant with worrisome aspects , If the experts are not sure of how dangerous it will be, how could the members of this forum ?

 

[Trvlr55]

16 hours ago, Virt said:

This article has a graph, which explains why a more transmissible but milder virus might end up causing more deaths.

 

So we're are not out of the woods yet, and i still think it's best to receive the vaccine to try and reduce the submissions to hospitals if it turns out omicron is much more transmissible and the exponential growth will result in more hospitalisations.

 

https://projectprotech.ca/community-news/omicron-variant-will-likely-be-worse-than-delta-according-to-early-research/

 

show ANY proof of increase hospitalizations, specifically due to the new variant. It does not exist.

 

A few months after this all started, there were several US government public discussion, with CDC, etc. Media challenged the governments charts on expected course of Covid, especially the numbers of deaths, and serious illness. Media specifically  challenged the numbers because other well know universities and research facilities had the number at 10X, 20X the US estimates. New York did their own, and it was even worse. Governor at the time, wanted 40000 ventilators, which was many times more than even available world-wide. Fauchi, Redmond, and Burke cautioned that projections are only as good as the numbers plugged into them. New York, and the other places were completely wrong, and it was closer or less than the worst case range US govt. estimated.

 

Canada has to date, been one of the worst at predicting anything about Covid... think they've even closed their boarders again, after just opening up a little.

 

[Scott]

On 12/8/2021 at 10:28 AM, Thunglom said:

As we are not even sure it was a flu virus there is little understanding of what happened - it ay have changed or it is possible that herd immunity was enough to put it to rest. There is a lot of evidence to suggest it was a corona virus.

Actually, the Spanish Flu was caused by an influenza virus.  The virus was resurrected and a careful analysis of the genome and how it managed to be so virulent.  There is more about the research here:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm

 

The Spanish Flu virus is still around, although it most likely exists in a highly mutated and recombined manner, but it is still active.  

 

The 1957, 1968 and 2009 influenza outbreaks were all direct descendants of the original Spanish Flu virus.  

 

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

 

 

[Thunglom]

16 hours ago, Scott said:

Actually, the Spanish Flu was caused by an influenza virus.  The virus was resurrected and a careful analysis of the genome and how it managed to be so virulent. 

This is now being reviewed and questioned.

 

th pint being that there have been many assumptions about the old "flu" virus that are misleading if applied to Covid19 and it is not a forgone conclusion that it will mutate ad peter out.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Thunglom

[Thunglom]

16 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

wow you are really really out there dude.

then just to play along... how did it go away?? all by itself, and felt abused because nobody recognized it.

These things do not just go away. again one plausible reason.

I thought I said...largely hers immunity

 Slightly altered versions of the 1918 flu reemerged in the winters of 1919-1920 and 1920-1921, but they were far less deadly and nearly indistinguishable from the seasonal flu. The 1918 flu definitely lost its real virulence by the early 1920s, but this is not guaranteed process of variation - it could have got worse - and of course there have n=been other flu epidemics that may or may not be associated - so you can argue it is still here. 

it is estimated that 50,000,000 were killed as a result and 500 million infected.

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Thunglom

[Scott]

45 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

This is now being reviewed and questioned.

 

th pint being that there have been many assumptions about the old "flu" virus that are misleading if applied to Covid19 and it is not a forgone conclusion that it will mutate ad peter out.

It's understandable to try and compare one pandemic to another but comparisons have to be done very carefully.  The influenza virus is a completely different family of viruses.  Although there are similarities in how it is transmitted and the symptoms, that's where it is ends.  

The level of mutations in influenza is very high and recombination with other viruses is common.  That is why there are so many strains and it is hard to know what will strike from year to year. 

 

Influenza is very much seasonal.  It is primarily a winter disease (in tropical countries like Thailand, it is common in the rainy season).  It strikes the Southern Hemisphere at the opposite time as the Northern Hemisphere.  
 

In spite of what it might look like, coronaviruses have a low mutation rate.   The virus contains an 'error editor' that usually throws out replications that are not the same as the original.  Of course, this error editor function doesn't work 100% and errors do get out and mutations do occur, but the rate is low. 

 

Although the symptoms are similar, they are not the same.   Influenza is a respiratory virus and it affects the nose, throat and lungs.  Covid is a vascular disease and it affects the respiratory system but is able to do major damage to the heart and kidneys as well as other systems.   The stomach 'flu' is not a flu and shouldn't be confused with the real flu.  Stomach flu is caused by the noravirus which is, again, a different class of viruses. 

[Thunglom]

I thought I said...largely herd immunity

 Slightly altered versions of the 1918 flu reemerged in the winters of 1919-1920 and 1920-1921, but they were far less deadly and nearly indistinguishable from the seasonal flu. The 1918 flu definitely lost its real virulence by the early 1920s, but this is not guaranteed process of variation - it could have got worse - and of course there have n=been other flu epidemics that may or may not be associated - so you can argue it is still here. 

it is estimated that 50,000,000 were killed as a result and 500 million infected.

I had flu rthree years ago in epidemic that hit Thailand and I wouldn't wish it on anyone - Covid is MUCH worse.

Edited December 10, 2021 by Thunglom