Photo by Handout / US Food and Drug Administration / AFP

 

One more Omicron variant case has been confirmed in Thailand, bringing total confirmed cases to date to nine, plus five potential cases still awaiting confirmation by means of whole genome sequencing (WGS) tests, according to Director-General of the Medical Sciences Department Dr. Supakit Sirilak.

 

As all the cases involve foreign arrivals which is normal for countries first experiencing the Omicron variant, he predicted that the first locally acquired case will inevitably emerge.

 

He added, however, that Thai people should not panic, assuring them that the new variant will be contained quickly.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/nine-confirmed-covid-19-omicron-cases-in-thailand-to-date/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-12-15

 

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Omicron is a freight train that is going to run into everyone.  That's the bad news.  The good news is it is far less virulent - even the WHO says so.  

Like it or not it's coming and it appears that it hasn't spread to the community yet in Thailand.  I write appears so, but we all know that it has.  There is no stopping this.  

Is this the end of the pandemic, its final wave?  Many virologists say this could be it.  Let's wait and see and hope.  

I remain hopeful.  

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

Omicron is a freight train that is going to run into everyone.  That's the bad news.  The good news is it is far less virulent - even the WHO says so.  

Like it or not it's coming and it appears that it hasn't spread to the community yet in Thailand.  I write appears so, but we all know that it has.  There is no stopping this.  

Is this the end of the pandemic, its final wave?  Many virologists say this could be it.  Let's wait and see and hope.  

I remain hopeful.  

Remaining hopefull is all we can do, however WHO have updated their advice today:

 

WHO warns against dismissing Omicron variant as ‘mild’ after early data
 

People underestimate coronavirus at their peril, health officials have warned, as they voiced concerns that the Omicron variant was being dismissed by some as “mild”.

Data from South Africa is still in its early stage and countries must act now in the face of a potentially “large wave of cases” of the faster-spreading strain, Dr Mike Ryan of the World Health Organisation said.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/12/14/who-warns-against-dismissing-omicron-variant-as-mild-after-early-data/

 

And from South Africa itself:

South Africa’s high level of infections could be masking how severe Omicron is

“We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected or if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalized individuals.”

https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/546818/south-africas-high-level-of-infections-could-be-masking-how-severe-omicron-is/

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

WHO warns against dismissing Omicron variant as ‘mild’ after early data

Yeah, but isn't that the same organisation that said it was not a pandemic for ages, allowing full Chinese travel and said the virus was nothing to do with a lab leak  ? 

 

Trusts these clowns even less than the current TAT tourist predictions !

South Africa is very poorly vaccinated. About 25%.

 

Cases are high but deaths have flatlined with omicron.

 

And I wouldn’t believe the WHO after their pro China bs that let the original virus spread.

The title for that last graph is misleading... it is certainly not omicron deaths as it appears to go back to before August and predates omicron identification. 

1 hour ago, Willy Wombat said:

South Africa is very poorly vaccinated. About 25%.

 

Cases are high but deaths have flatlined with omicron.

 

And I wouldn’t believe the WHO after their pro China bs that let the original virus spread.

we can all pull data and quotes right now from various sources in SA and they are all conflicting - mass media is conflicting - the head of SA health authority has said quite a lot on the subject - might be better to follow that 

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Yeah, but isn't that the same organisation that said it was not a pandemic for ages, allowing full Chinese travel and said the virus was nothing to do with a lab leak  ? 

 

Trusts these clowns even less than the current TAT tourist predictions !

Yea the very same one, however I was responding and agreeing to a poster who said we had to be hopeful. However he also cited WHO as saying it was far less virulent.

 

I provided an update on that as you can see.  For those who will always disagree with WHO  I additionally provided another link with some perspective from experts in SA.

 

Personally I agree fully with what the head of WHO has stated:

 

"Surely, we have learned by now that we underestimate this virus at our peril. Even if Omicron does cause less severe disease, the sheer number of cases could once again overwhelm unprepared health systems," he said.

 

 

A post with false or misleading information has been removed.  Please stay on topic.  

 

48 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"Surely, we have learned by now that we underestimate this virus at our peril. Even if Omicron does cause less severe disease, the sheer number of cases could once again overwhelm unprepared health systems," he said.

I'm about as far away from being a conspiracy theorist, anti vaxxer or Covid denier as you can get and I agree with some restrictions but we cannot continue like this forever. As has been said a thousand times, we have to learn to live with the virus - there will be more variants and more waves.

 

I wouldn't advocate vastly stricter measures - after nearly 2 years most country's economies are reeling.  I would however, be for stricter enforcement of the basic measures that are in place. I can't speak for Thailand but in the UK, a lot of people are now ignoring mask wearing etc. They are rarely prosecuted and are often 'serial' offenders.  People say its restriction weariness, I don't see the problem - if wearing a mask and keeping my distance for a few more months or even years will keep me Covid free, I don't have a problem. I've had Covid and its not something I want to experience again.

 

I heard a woman talking today (the UK gov are advising not to have get togethers etc. over Christmas if possible - only advising mind), she was saying, I don't care, I'm having my mother over for Christmas and that's that. I only just resisted saying 'yeah, and it could be your mother's last Christmas. There's a strong case for being sensible but somebody needs to enforce it.

 

Closing the borders would be a waste of time - as we have seen here, Omicron will get in and when it does it goes crazy.

 

One of the problems with Thailand is that the healthcare system will get overwhelmed very quickly if the don't stop putting people with few, if any symptoms in hospital. A friend's mum was hauled off at the end of last week - positive PCR but the tiniest of cold like symptoms. My friend and her daughter had only just arrived  in Thailand after over 2 years.  Mother is in hospital, daughter and grandaughter have to isolate for, I believe, 10 days and should one of them sneeze, the'll be hauled off too. I really don't see the sense in hospitalising people with very mild cases of the disease.

 

 

1 minute ago, KhaoYai said:

I'm about as far away from being a conspiracy theorist, anti vaxxer or Covid denier as you can get and I agree with some restrictions but we cannot continue like this forever. As has been said a thousand times, we have to learn to live with the virus - there will be more variants and more waves.

 

I wouldn't advocate stricter measures - after nearly 2 years most country's economies are reeling.  I would however be for stricter enforcement of the basic measures that are in place. I can't speak for Thailand but in the UK, a lot of people are now ignoring mask wearing etc. They are rarely prosecuted and are often 'serial' offenders.  People say its restriction weariness, I don't see the problem - if wearing a mask and keeping my distance for a few more months or even years will keep me Covid free, I don't have a problem.

 

I heard a woman talking today (the UK gov are advising not to have get togethers etc. over Christmas if possible - only advising mind), she was saying, I don't care, I'm having my mother over for Christmas and that's that. I only just resisted saying 'yeah, and it could be your mother's last Christmas. There's a strong case for being sensible but somebody needs to enforce it.

 

Closing the borders would be a waste of time - as we have seen here, Omicron will get in and when it does it goes crazy.

 

One of the problems with Thailand is that the healthcare system will get overwhelmed very quickly if the don't stop putting people with few, if any symptoms in hospital. A friend's mum was hauled off at the end of last week - positive PCR but the tiniest of cold like symptoms. My friend and her daughter had only just arrived  in Thailand after over 2 years.  Mother is in hospital, daughter and grandaughter have to isolate for, I believe, 10 days and should one of them sneeze, the'll be hauled off too. I really don't see the sense in hospitalising people with very mild cases of the disease.

 

 

I agree with what you say and I don't believe WHO are stating anything other than enforcing the basic measures, ie vaccinations etc, they are certainly not advocating travel bans.

 

The UK will be a good test bed with reliable data coming out on how they cope with Omicron cases and the level of hospitalizations. I hope that the immune wall they have built up will hold well and provide the protection needed. 

 

We all have pandemic fatigue including me but my current opinion on this being that after nearly two years of this we can wait just a few more weeks to see if this really is milder than Delta, if it is then thats very good news and yes we should just get on with life.

11 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Omicron is a freight train that is going to run into everyone.  That's the bad news.  The good news is it is far less virulent - even the WHO says so.  

 

Less lethal , that's from natural selection. Not to worry. So far about 21000 deaths in Thailand mostly from the very unhealthy . I'm surprised most of those people were still walking around. So here is the real freight train Hoss: in Thailand 160,000 tobacco related deaths per year ! And it seems like im  the only one saying anything??https://www.tobaccofreekids.org/problem/toll-global/asia/thailand#:~:text=About 106%2C000 people die in,year from smoking-related diseases.&text=Nearly 24% of male deaths,deaths are attributable to smoking.

An off topic post about Monday's road deaths has been removed as well as the replies.  Please stay on topic. 

“He added, however, that Thai people should not panic, assuring them that the new variant will be contained quickly.”

 

on what basis can he give this assurance? Happy to hear it if it’s true, but I don’t see a huge rush to take action to make it a reality. Boosters for instance? 

Ah well, quess its time for some Vit-D and zinc. 

Omicron is impossible to keep out and will probably already be spreading fast. If it is mild maybe end of pandemic but to date no one knows. Vaccination will help so get vaccinated if you can 

I am jot sure the WHO is a reliable source of information after they protected China and played down Covid initially saying that it could be contained. Dr Tedros also has a particularly murky past. 

He added, however, that Thai people should not panic, assuring them that the new variant will be contained quickly.

 

That is absolute rubbish!

Thailand will not be able to contain it.

It will take over as the dominant variant here in a matter of weeks

And that is great news!!!

We need this variant to take over.

Not going to go into why.........enough evidence online

30 minutes ago, peter zwart said:

Ah well, quess its time for some Vit-D and zinc. 

At last!!!!!

A sensible, and informed comment from someone!

If you are taking over 4,000 IU of Vit D, dont forget to take K2 also.

100

200

400

800

1600

3200

6400

12800

25600

51200

102400

204800

409600

819200

1638400

3276800

6553600

13107200

26214400

52428800

104857600

—> ca 2 months. The world? All some weeks later! No issue? 

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

As all the cases involve foreign arrivals which is normal for countries first experiencing the Omicron variant, he predicted that the first locally acquired case will inevitably emerge.

Only if someone slips past the border controls.

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

I agree with what you say and I don't believe WHO are stating anything other than enforcing the basic measures, ie vaccinations etc, they are certainly not advocating travel bans.

 

The UK will be a good test bed with reliable data coming out on how they cope with Omicron cases and the level of hospitalizations. I hope that the immune wall they have built up will hold well and provide the protection needed. 

 

We all have pandemic fatigue including me but my current opinion on this being that after nearly two years of this we can wait just a few more weeks to see if this really is milder than Delta, if it is then thats very good news and yes we should just get on with life.

It's pretty simple - we need to see how bad this is and restrictions need to be in place before we just let this thing rip.  

I don't see it being that bad but who the hell am I, a doctor?  No.  

Omicron hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase at rapid rates in Gauteng, South Africa (the epicenter).  Graphs below are from https://twitter.com/rid1tweets.

 

 

 

 

 

34 minutes ago, nickmondo said:

He added, however, that Thai people should not panic, assuring them that the new variant will be contained quickly.

 

That is absolute rubbish!

Thailand will not be able to contain it.

It will take over as the dominant variant here in a matter of weeks

And that is great news!!!

We need this variant to take over.

Not going to go into why.........enough evidence online

I wouldn't worry about the official word - this variant will take over.  It is 8x more transmissible than delta.  There is no stopping it unless yo live in a bubble.  

The weekly South Africa excess deaths report is out, for the week ending 11 December.  Excess deaths increased from 1,726 in the previous week (that's a downward revision) to 1,887.  Omicron is a killer.

 

The full report is available here:

 

https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2021-12-15/weekly11Dec2021.pdf

 

 

 

Average daily Covid deaths this past week in South Africa:  27.

 

But yesterday, the number of Covid deaths in SA doubled to 54.

 

Source: https://covid-19dashboard.news24.com 

What does Thailand do to keep this Omicron spread very low.
UK is spreading like wildfire.

Maybe Thai Health Minister should travel the world and lecture how Thailand keeps this thing out.

13 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

Omicron hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase at rapid rates in Gauteng, South Africa (the epicenter).  Graphs below are from https://twitter.com/rid1tweets.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like my share dealing account.

9 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

Average daily Covid deaths this past week in South Africa:  27.

 

But yesterday, the number of Covid deaths in SA doubled to 54.

 

Source: https://covid-19dashboard.news24.com 

I found this study posted by @Cherrytreeview yesterday very interesting, it seems to be giving a clue as to why Omicron may be less virulent.

 

"HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung"

 

However it also adds the warning:

‘It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic. Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.’

https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press/20211215-omicron-sars-cov-2-infection