Omicron five times more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder, study says

[Virt]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Did you actually read the article that the link led to?

"PCR tests can only tell if someone is positive or negative for the coronavirus. Positive samples, however, typically go through a more sophisticated analysis called genomic sequencing, which can discern whether a sample contains a new or a known COVID-19 variant."

Are you sure of that?

Denmark says their own variant PCR test are accurate enough to determine if it's omicron or not, without having to sequence the positive PCR test.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.dk/20211207/dozens-more-omicron-covid-19-cases-detected-in-denmark/%3famp

 

They still sequence as many as they can, but after the new spikes they don't have the manpower/facilities to 100 % genome sequencing all positive tests.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Virt

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Virt said:

Are you sure of that?

Denmark says their own variant PCR test are accurate enough to determine if it's omicron or not, without having to sequence the positive PCR test.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.dk/20211207/dozens-more-omicron-covid-19-cases-detected-in-denmark/%3famp

 

They still sequence as many as they can, but after the new spikes they don't have the manpower/facilities to 100 % genome sequencing all positive tests.

Rabas already pointed that for the Omicron variant, this is the case. That said, I was replying to someone who, in response to my citing the article, asked a question that would have been answered had he actually read it.

[Danderman123]

On 12/22/2021 at 8:14 AM, Danderman123 said:

It should be remembered that the spike in cases in the UK is mostly Delta, so there should be a big spike in hospitalizations and deaths in the next weeks.

 

i am hopeful that Omicron will eradicate Delta in the UK and Thailand. It is beginning to look like the end of the epidemic is coming.

 

 

Oops, not anymore, lots of Omicron in the UK now. 

[JamesH]

Taken from the BBC Web site this morning;

"The wave of Omicron appears to be milder according to preliminary studies published in the UK and South Africa.

Early evidence suggests fewer people are needing hospital treatment than with other variants - with estimates ranging from a 30% to a 70% reduction."

 

[MrJ2U]

On 12/18/2021 at 5:22 AM, 2long said:

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century

...And conspiracy theories.

[stupidfarang]

What to belive? Omicron wave appears milder The wave of Omicron appears to be milder according to preliminary studies published in the UK and South Africa.

Read on BBC news, 

[KhunLA]

If reading the whole news-blip, the fear monging has no basis, even though making the echo box rounds:

 

""We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalization attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta," the study said, although it added that data on hospitalizations remains very limited..

 

 The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed."

Edited December 23, 2021 by KhunLA

[Chomper Higgot]

16 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

If reading the whole news-blip, the fear monging has no basis, even though making the echo box rounds:

 

""We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalization attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta," the study said, although it added that data on hospitalizations remains very limited..

 

 The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed."

Your accusation of fear mongering has no basis.

 

Yes, we got that.

[catturd]

The study notes the "conclusions are based on making assumptions", and "there is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modeled estimates..."   

 

Hang tight, read the next assumption based conclusion based on insufficient data and you can get a different result for the same subject assessment:

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa

Conclusion:

"Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period. Once hospitalised, risk of severe disease was similar for SGTF- and non-SGTF infected individuals, while SGTF-infected individuals had a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity."

 

Need to have some real world data to be certain where omicron may be taking us.

 

For now & FYI here are various media reports and articles swirling the web:

Real-world data from U.K. suggests omicron is less likely than delta to send people to the hospital

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/omicron-severity-uk/2021/12/22/303d4d26-6337-11ec-9b51-7131fa190c5e_story.html

South African doctors see signs omicron is milder than delta

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/south-african-doctors-see-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta/2021/12/11/6463d964-5a57-11ec-8396-5552bef55c3c_story.html

 

And for some of you, never take your eyes off The Atlantic" and this OP:

Omicron Is the Beginning of the End

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/omicron-end-of-pandemic/621089/

 

Hopefully omicron does not reset your vaccine passport to Zero, and does bring an end to this pandemic madness. Being extra cautious in the face of omicron is warranted, for now, until the science and real world supporting data are known, confirmed by more than "assumptions" based on "uncertainty".

 

Hope this is helpful, be sure to leave a comment.

 

CDC-What We Know about Omicron

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by catturd

[catturd]

14 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Ah yes, the CDC .... C an't D eny or C onfirm folks

And, also, we have this guy named Fauci.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/how-fauci-fooled-america-opinion/ar-AAQbFiu

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, KhunLA said:

If reading the whole news-blip, the fear monging has no basis, even though making the echo box rounds:

 

""We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalization attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta," the study said, although it added that data on hospitalizations remains very limited..

 

 The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed."

Would you believe that there are some people who are so fearful that they refuse to be vaccinated with the covid vaccine because of an irrational fear of some latent uspecficied consequences that will manifest themselves somewhere down the line? Despite the fact that this has never happened with a vaccine. And despite that fact that it has with several pathogenic viruses.  

[rabas]

18 minutes ago, catturd said:

 

Hang tight, read the next assumption based conclusion based on insufficient data and you can get a different result for the same subject assessment:

Early assessment of the clinical severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in South Africa

Conclusion:

"Early analyses suggest a reduced risk of hospitalisation among SGTF-infected individuals when compared to non-SGTF infected individuals in the same time period. Once hospitalised, risk of severe disease was similar for SGTF- and non-SGTF infected individuals, while SGTF-infected individuals had a reduced risk of severe disease when compared to earlier Delta-infected individuals. Some of this reducton is likely a result of high population immunity."

 

Need to have some real world data to be certain where omicron may be taking us.

(Note: SGTF simply means diagnosed as Omicron using PCR.)

 

The study says current Omicron cases are less likely to be hospitalized than current Delta cases but, once in hospital severity is similar.  Here are two reasons for lower hospitalizations that do not require a milder Omicron virus.

 

1. Omicron easily infects people with immunity from past waves, Delta does not. Thus,  many Omicron cases may be milder. (Same for vaxxed people)

 

2. In SA, Omicron infects a significantly lower age bracket than Delta (Omicron in orange). This may also lower hospitalizations without a naturally milder Omicron.

 

But never look a gift horse in the mouth. A milder Omicron experience is welcome no matter the reason.  But it may not mean SARS-2 is becoming milder, that will require much more data.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/16928813/new-fears-kids-greater-risk-omicron-hospitalisations/

[placeholder]

19 minutes ago, catturd said:

And, also, we have this guy named Fauci.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/how-fauci-fooled-america-opinion/ar-AAQbFiu

This article comes from 2 creators of the Great Barrington  Declaration which has been condemned by most epidemiologists. In fact the authors' criticism of Dr. Fauci are really criticisms of the consensus of the epidemiological community.

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Come on ... have a chuckle, it won't hurt. ????

Actually I have had a chuckle or 2 from stuff you've written. But only because of the ineptitude of the arguments you offer and the falsehoods you've written. You do humor best when you do it inadvertently.

[KhunLA]

21 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Despite the fact that this has never happened with a vaccine. 

Think you need to do just a wee bit more research.  USA 'vaccine court' alone, has paid out $4.7 billion and counting, for just that ... past vaccine oops.

 

Never say never ...

Edited December 23, 2021 by KhunLA

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

Think you need to do just a wee bit more research.  USA 'vaccine court' alone, has paid out $4.7 billion and counting, for just that ... past vaccine oops.

Not for consequences of vaccination that emerge much later.  Ya know, latent symptoms. Which is what you have repeatedly expressed a fear of. 

What vaccine makers aren't being sued for is the far greater number of the unvaccinated who become seriously ill with long term damage or die. What is there about these comparative numbers that seems to defy your understanding?

[KhunLA]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Ya know, latent symptoms. Which is what you have repeatedly expressed a fear of. 

 

I'm 67 (today), so don't care about long term effects.  Just debilitating or death.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I'm 67 (today), so don't care about long term effects.  Just debilitating or death.

Long covid is a long term effect. What don't you understand about the far greater likelihood that you will suffer long term effects or die if you don't get vaccinated?

Edited December 23, 2021 by placeholder

[JackGats]

"Five times more likely to reinfect than Delta". How likely was reinfection with Delta? Maybe 0.0001% likely. So Omicron 0.0005% likely to reinfect.

[KhunLA]

18 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Long covid is a long term effect. What don't you understand about the far greater likelihood that you will suffer long term effects or die if you don't get vaccinated?

Probably realizing the very low chance of getting infected, along with even lower chance of having long term issue, let alone the 0.0307% chance of dying from covid per Thai population.

 

More so, what don't you understand - 307 per million ... really liking my odds.

That's not even close to scary.  That's not even close to being concerned.  30 or 40 yrs of breathing the PM2.5 here would be more of a concern, and I don't think about that either.

 

I look both ways, twice, when I cross the street, and wear a helmet on my scooter.  Pretty much covers all my concerns.

Edited December 23, 2021 by KhunLA

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Probably realizing the very low chance of getting infected, along with even lower chance of having long term issue, let alone the 0.0307% chance of dying from covid per Thai population.

 

More so, what don't you understand - 307 per million ... really liking my odds.

You assume the official data is correct. I would advise not betting your life on Thai official statistics.

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Probably realizing the very low chance of getting infected, along with even lower chance of having long term issue, let alone the 0.0307% chance of dying from covid per Thai population.

 

More so, what don't you understand - 307 per million ... really liking my odds.

That's not even close to scary.  That's not even close to being concerned.  30 or 40 yrs of breathing the PM2.5 here would be more of a concern, and I don't think about that either.

 

I look both ways, twice, when I cross the street, and wear a helmet on my scooter.  Pretty much covers all my concerns.

And yet far greater odds of getting seriously or or dying than you would face if you were vaccinated. That's irrational.

[KhunLA]

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And yet far greater odds of getting seriously or or dying than you would face if you were vaccinated. That's irrational.

You do realize, you are comparing two things I am very unlikely to experience.  One I definitely won't experience since not vax'd.

 

Irrational, is living in fear of the unknown.  Or statistically something happening with a less than 1% chance and I think I'm being really generous with that number.

[peter zwart]

On 12/18/2021 at 11:18 AM, Chomper Higgot said:

So now Imperial College is in league with drug companies conspiring to conduct a social experiment?!

 

There is an alternative.

 

No such conspiracy exists.

I leave the social experiment for what it is. But is a for sure a "money" experiment.

 

[KhunLA]

35 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You assume the official data is correct. I would advise not betting your life on Thai official statistics.

You're assuming all your studies and projections are correct by those selling.  Bit of an impasse.  Learned not to trust gov't & salespersons.

Let's agree to disagree.

 

Live and let live or die kind of thing.

Edited December 23, 2021 by KhunLA

[RickG16]

I'm confused. I thought far less people (relatively) were dying from Omicron.....

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

You do realize, you are comparing two things I am very unlikely to experience.  One I definitely won't experience since not vax'd.

 

Irrational, is living in fear of the unknown.  Or statistically something happening with a less than 1% chance and I think I'm being really generous with that number.

But that's what you're doing. Living in the fear of the unknown.

You're afraid of being vaccinated out of fear of the highly, highly improbably unspecified outcomes. What's known is that you're safer vaccinated than unvaccinated. And of  whatever the mortality percentage turns out to be for your age group, death isn't the only consideration. There's also long term covid. And the possibility of suffering long term symptoms is a great deal higher than dying.

[Scott]

Troll posts removed. 

[Credo]

Personally, I can't wait to see what happens when the Thai government decides that all foreigners have to get vaccinated in order to obtain a visa.  I wonder how many will hold to their nonsensical 'right' to not get vaccinated?  

[peter zwart]

13 hours ago, RickG16 said:

I'm confused. I thought far less people (relatively) were dying from Omicron.....

Seems to be true. UKHSA has stated that people infected with the Omicron varient have 70% less chance to end up in the hospital.