96% asymptomatic.

[AKJeff]

https://reut.rs/3aEWraI

 

Interesting arrival from Reuters about prison populations in the US.

 

As many as 96 percent of some populations are asymptomatic.  

[Surelynot]

Holy s**t. That is scary.

[timendres]

5 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Holy s**t. That is scary.

It is good news. It suggests that the total number of infected people in the US as a whole might be on the order of 10M plus. In which case, the mortality rate is significantly lower than first thought.

[scubascuba3]

Shame there is no mention of age, i imagine younger are more likely to be asymptomatic

[AKJeff]

I was thinking more good news than bad as well.  There is so much that won't be know until we can take a look back, maybe a year or two.  But if 90+% or more have it and don't develop systems then this is much less deadly than some early indicators suggested.  But I still believe nothing is definitive yet.  Just another data point that needs to be added the the mix.

[rabang]

I don't also get why some people think a large number of infections is a bad thing. On the contrary a large amount of asymptomatic or mild cases just decreases the lethality of the virus.

[Surelynot]

12 minutes ago, timendres said:

It is good news. It suggests that the total number of infected people in the US as a whole might be on the order of 10M plus. In which case, the mortality rate is significantly lower than first thought.

Agree with you totally, if I were not in my sixties, with hypertension. It means I am almost certainly going to contract the virus at some point. 

[papa al]

15 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Shame there is no mention of age, i imagine younger are more likely to be asymptomatic

Helloooo.

Did you read the article?

They did mention age.

"Older"

Edited April 26, 2020 by papa al

[impulse]

8 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Agree with you totally, if I were not in my sixties, with hypertension. It means I am almost certainly going to contract the virus at some point. 

 

My next door neighbors in Texas are in their 70's, both have diabetes and many other underlying health conditions.  They both recovered at home with mild flu like symptoms.  Their 90+ year old mother-in-law lives with them and she's fine as far as anyone can tell.  They didn't have anywhere to send her when they tested positive because of her Alzheimers...

 

My PSA...  But don't listen to a YouTube.  Do your own diligence.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2020 by impulse

[papa al]

6 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Agree with you totally, if I were not in my sixties, with hypertension. It means I am almost certainly going to contract the virus at some point. 

Nearly everybody will get it.

I'm ready.

B100,000 insurance plan 

pays if I'm diagnosed w/

the Covid.

EZ money.

????

[Surelynot]

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

My next door neighbors in Texas are in their 70's, both have diabetes and many other underlying health conditions.  They both recovered at home with mild flu like symptoms.  Their 90+ year old mother-in-law lives with them and she's fine as far as anyone can tell.  They didn't have anywhere to send her when they tested positive because of her Alzheimers...

 

My PSA...  But don't listen to a YouTube.  Do your own diligence.

 

 

Feel a little happier now.......stopped crying at least.

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, papa al said:

Nearly everybody will get it.

I'm ready.

B100,000 insurance plan 

pays if I'm diagnosed w/

the Covid.

EZ money.

????

Ha! Nice idea.....you do know you don't get the money ?

[Captain Monday]

9 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Ha! Nice idea.....you do know you don't get the money ?

You'll be dead.

[DavisH]

20 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Ha! Nice idea.....you do know you don't get the money ?

It would just cover the hospital bills. An ICU can cost 30k or more per day in a private hoapital, so don't wanna get too sick. 

[connda]

Why is that scary.  It goes to prove that all the modelling is completely off.  What is coming to the surface of epidemiological studies now is that vast majority of cases are asymptomic, significantly more widespread then originally believed, and as such the case mortality rates are magnitudes lower than predicted.

 

Scary?  No.  It's being shown that this really is no more lethal then any other seasonal flu.  They only difference is that the world governments chose to lockdown their citizens and throw their economies under the bus. 

No, this is good news.  It will be amazing how many people will be totally freaked out to find that they have already had Covid without knowing and that the population as a whole are nearing herd-immunity when inexpensive anti-body tests become widespread.

[TacoKhun]

Probably bad tests are giving a lot of false positives

Edited April 26, 2020 by TacoKhun

[DavisH]

4 minutes ago, connda said:

Why is that scary.  It goes to prove that all the modelling is completely off.  What is coming to the surface of epidemiological studies now is that vast majority of cases are asymptomic, significantly more widespread then originally believed, and as such the case mortality rates are magnitudes lower than predicted.

 

Scary?  No.  It's being shown that this really is no more lethal then any other seasonal flu.  They only difference is that the world governments chose to lockdown their citizens and throw their economies under the bus. 

No, this is good news.  It will be amazing how many people will be totally freaked out to find that they have already had Covid without knowing and that the population as a whole are nearing herd-immunity when inexpensive anti-body tests become widespread.

About 13% of 3000 randomly people in NY state show antibodies to the virus. NY city was about 20%. These were random peopke sampled from public places. This is to be expected due to the very high numbers of symptomatic patients. But this also means as some time they were infected and potentially spreading the virus. The percent also varied across areas - higher antibody prevalence was correlated with higher rates of symptomatic cases. 

[TacoKhun]

my opinion there is no asymptomatic corona patients. the tests are just bad and giving a lot of false positive.

[sucit]

3 minutes ago, TacoKhun said:

my opinion there is no asymptomatic corona patients. the tests are just bad and giving a lot of false positive.

They test these test on people who have for sure had coronavirus. I suppose it just depends on hoe deep you wanna take this. Has nobody had it? 

[mauGR1]

46 minutes ago, connda said:

Scary?  No.  It's being shown that this really is no more lethal then any other seasonal flu.  They only difference is that the world governments chose to lockdown their citizens and throw their economies under the bus. 

..And the 2nd sentence is the scary one.

Why did they choose to throw the economy under the bus ?

Is that a mistake or what ?

 

[katatonic]

42 minutes ago, TacoKhun said:

my opinion there is no asymptomatic corona patients. the tests are just bad and giving a lot of false positive.

Odd that no-one suggested that in the Reuters article but I believe you could be on the right track.

 

[sirineou]

Mass testing is the only solution to knowing  what we are talking about, everything else is whisking in the dark.I still don't understand why we don't have a widely available test for everyone .  We can put a man on the Moon and rovers on Mars but we cant mass produce a test?  

[ukrules]

41 minutes ago, TacoKhun said:

my opinion there is no asymptomatic corona patients. the tests are just bad and giving a lot of false positive.

They have found and tested asymptomatic people through the contact tracing method, they tested positive but had no symptoms. This happened on the cruise ships and in prisons as well.

 

 

 

[Sheryl]

53 minutes ago, connda said:

No, this is good news.  It will be amazing how many people will be totally freaked out to find that they have already had Covid without knowing and that the population as a whole are nearing herd-immunity when inexpensive anti-body tests become widespread.

 

Unfortunately the antibody testing done so far does nto show anywhere near herd immunity even in the hottest spots.

 

NYC found about 21%,  the hottest spot in Germany 15% and I have seen other numbers in the 15% range from other severely affected areas. Less affected  areas much lower, of course.

 

One would expect much higher prevalence in crowded institutional settings like prisons, if one person gets it there most will. But out in the general population it is a bit different.

 

Unfortunately the prevalence still seems low enough even in the worst hit areas  that a second and even third major wave is more than possible, in fact I fear inevitable and the trick will be to keep the curves of those waves flat enough that the health system can cope - which did not happen in NYC with the first wave, causing a lot of avoidable deaths and from much more than COVID. Hospitalizations for heart attacks and strokes went down by around 70% and deaths at home increased 10 fold. We really can't allow a repeat of that awful scenario. Though I shudder at the implications for the city given its dependence on mass transit.

 

 

[katatonic]

3 minutes ago, ukrules said:

They have found and tested asymptomatic people through the contact tracing method, they tested positive but had no symptoms. This happened on the cruise ships and in prisons as well.

 

 

 

Yes, but not in these proportions.

[chessman]

58 minutes ago, connda said:

Scary?  No.  It's being shown that this really is no more lethal then any other seasonal flu.  They only difference is that the world governments chose to lockdown their citizens and throw their economies under the bus. 

Good luck making those figures work. In New York it has already killed (slightly) more than 0.1% of the population of the state. That means that if every single person in New York State had it (which obviously they don’t) the mortality rate would still be above the 0.1% of seasonal flu. In the next few weeks the states that neighbour New York will likely reach this grim figure too, as may a few whole countries (probably Belgium will be first there).

[bert bloggs]

6 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Mass testing is the only solution to knowing  what we are talking about, everything else is whisking in the dark.I still don't understand why we don't have a widely available test for everyone .  We can put a man on the Moon and rovers on Mars but we cant mass produce a test?  

how long did it take to put a man on the moon,3 months ?  no ,it took a long time ,so does making a widely available test .

[Maestro]

4 hours ago, impulse said:

My PSA...

 

Your PSA (prostate-specific antigen) has nothing to do with the diagnosis of of Covid-19.

[canuckamuck]

3 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

..And the 2nd sentence is the scary one.

Why did they choose to throw the economy under the bus ?

Is that a mistake or what ?

 

Asking the real questions.

It is amazing how the world's billionaires and mega corporations gave absolutely no resistance to the lock downs and the shuttering of the economy. Did they suddenly develop a conscience or did they predict a favorable return?

[lannarebirth]

4 hours ago, sirineou said:

Mass testing is the only solution to knowing  what we are talking about, everything else is whisking in the dark.I still don't understand why we don't have a widely available test for everyone .  We can put a man on the Moon and rovers on Mars but we cant mass produce a test?  

Oh, we can alright, but the incentives have become skewed. Whereas the proper incentive might be to produce as many accurate tests as quickly as possible to ensure good health outcomes, the current incentives are how to reward past and future corporate contributors to political campaigns and how to use that to defeat the other party in the next election.