Virus may have begun as early as October 6

[Monomial]

A new report that will be published in the upcoming edition of Genetics and Evolution.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3083211/coronavirus-may-have-jumped-humans-early-october-study-says

 

Researchers from  University College London and the University of Reunion Island analysed more than 7,000 genomes collected from around the world. By looking at the mutations in the virus, they determined the virus jumped from its initial host to humans at some point between October 6 and December 11.

 

While the December 11 date has never been controversial, pushing the origin back to as early as the beginning of October lends support to the hypothesis that the virus that began spreading through Thailand in early to mid November was in fact the new corona virus, and that a big reason why Thailand's numbers have been so low is because the peak of the infection passed long before anyone even knew to look for it.

 

The hypothesis can be tested if anyone can get a hold of raw, monthly mortality figures for Thailand including late 2019 and January 2020. The pattern of deaths should be noticeably skewed from earlier years where no virus was present if the speculation is correct.

 

The early October date as a genesis is given additional credibility by the report of a French athletic team who attended the Wuhan games in October and who came down with an unknown respiratory illness after returning. Frozen tissue samples from a patient show the virus was definitely in France by December, and a vector of returning athletes in October would be consistent with that.

 

 

 

 

[daveAustin]

Yes, heard this. And makes sense that Thailand might have had it's 'peak' way back, with deaths likely recorded as pneumonia and the like.

[tribalfusion001]

I did have a chesty cough that I couldn't shake off for weeks in BKK December last year, the girl I was with kept on telling to see a doctor, which I didn't.

[Sharp]

2 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I did have a chesty cough that I couldn't shake off for weeks in BKK December last year, the girl I was with kept on telling to see a doctor, which I didn't.

Me and some friends met in Pattaya early Dec before departing for new year and all of us had some kind of flu symptoms there after, some mild others with 3/4 days of chills a fever. 

All have recovered before new year celebrations but we all think we had Corvid19 

[Moonlover]

This theory seems to be gaining more and more traction by the day doesn't it. Who remembers this well thought out post from over 2 weeks ago? It's looking more likely that @yuyiinthesky was right.

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

This would make sense in regards to my family and I also having a type of chest infection and fevers which took over two weeks to dissipate with use of pharmaceuticals.  Our issues started just after my birthday in December when we had a large gathering at a trendy nightclub in Bangkok, which also was loaded with visitors for the Christmas holidays.  So maybe an antibody test would be good to have if there was one that could trace the strain of the virus we may have had.

[Mama Noodle]

Reason # 12049 that im going to get multiple antibody tests done when the interprovincial travel restrictions are lifted. 

[chessman]

 

 

8 hours ago, Monomial said:

The hypothesis can be tested if anyone can get a hold of raw, monthly mortality figures for Thailand including late 2019 and January 2020. The pattern of deaths should be noticeably skewed from earlier years where no virus was present if the speculation is correct.

As far as I know, Thailand don't make this data available. We do have it for other countries though and the The New York Times and Financial Times have been publishing stories about it.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
 

The fact that overall deaths are spiking in March/April in almost all of the chosen countries and that coincides with officially reported COVID 19 deaths suggests that there weren't a significant amount of community transmission/severe cases before then.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

 

 

As far as I know, Thailand don't make this data available. We do have it for other countries though and the The New York Times and Financial Times have been publishing stories about it.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
 

The fact that overall deaths are spiking in March/April in almost all of the chosen countries and that coincides with officially reported COVID 19 deaths suggests that there weren't a significant amount of community transmission/severe cases before then.

Ergo, the Covid-19 mutation began to have its new affect and more asymptomatic folks were starting to transmit it during this timeframe, is that the point trying to be made with the new information.  If so then was it because someone played around with the virus and enhanced the abilities....we may never know now will we.....

[BobbyL]

We were actually talking about this a few days ago. My wife and I were both mildly sick (similar-ish symptoms to what has been said) in early December before we went to England for Christmas. Might not have been this, but you never know. 

[twocatsmac]

[chessman]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Ergo, the Covid-19 mutation began to have its new affect and more asymptomatic folks were starting to transmit it during this timeframe, is that the point trying to be made with the new information.  If so then was it because someone played around with the virus and enhanced the abilities....we may never know now will we.....

My point is only that you have to make several large jumps to make this theory work. There doesn't seem to be any solid evidence (yet) there has been a mutation to a more deadly strain.

 

The fact that there is a generally recognized time frame for how the virus has spread and this matches with overall death data from multiple countries is pretty good evidence to me.

 

 

[mommysboy]

The problem with collecting this sort of data is it relies on anecdotal evidence in a population base of one!

 

Yet, like many others on this forum, I also suffered a truly wicked virus in Bangkok around the earlier time mentioned. It was so atypical- I thought I was going to cough myself to death.  At the time, I do remember thinking that weaker people could probably die of it. It wasn't the flu, or any ordinary cold.

 

Good luck finding any official figures!

[Ventenio]

It's funny, I would guess 50% of us think we've had Corona already.  I know I do.  January, a sickness that was different than anything else i've had before (or now I'm telling myself that).  shortness of breath, but not terrible, very high fever that didn't want to go away, a very dry cough that seemed different...... i'm sure it wasn't covid, and just a sign that i'm getting older and need to take care of my immune system better.  

 

since covid, got rid of sugar.  wow, big difference.  vitamin D, seems to help, no idea.

 

Why do we want to think we had it?  BECAUSE that means we are strong and covid didn't kill us.  ALSO it terrifies us that if we DIDN"T have it before, wow, that means covid will probably kill us because we got sooo sick on something not as strong.  it's scary.  

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by Ventenio

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

Why do we want to think we had it?  BECAUSE that means we are strong and covid didn't kill us.  ALSO it terrifies us that if we DIDN"T have it before, wow, that means covid will probably kill us because we got sooo sick on something not as strong.  it's scary. 

I also think it is psychological, it's in the news every day and you start by wondering if you had it and then trying to justify those thoughts. Natural thought process.

 

I get a cold every year in November/December in Thailand when the weather becomes cooler. I got one this year. I've also had a really mild cold for about two months... Can't remember ever having something that went on for so long. I also have that doubt in my mind.

[TSF]

1 hour ago, twocatsmac said:

 

 

[TSF]

Well he's only calling a spade a spade. The damn virus came from Wuhan China. And was probably made/tweaked by that Shi Zhengli bitch in the virology labs. 

[Saltire]

Interesting OP.

 

My wife and I were on holiday early January both Bangkok and Pattaya and the wife got really sick with symptoms very similar to Covid. She went to a few pharmacies for the usual cocktail but it took 4 more days for her to be up to travelling home.

 

I just assumed she had a bad flu and none of the pharmacists suggested hospital.

 

The only thing that makes me think this may not have been covid is that I was not sick at all. She is 40 and I 65 but I am very much in the 'vulnerable' group which is why we are in day 49 of staying at home.

 

Later if testing is offered we will take it, as well as an antibodies test for past infection. If she had it, then I guess many could have also.

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

My point is only that you have to make several large jumps to make this theory work. There doesn't seem to be any solid evidence (yet) there has been a mutation to a more deadly strain.

 

The fact that there is a generally recognized time frame for how the virus has spread and this matches with overall death data from multiple countries is pretty good evidence to me.

 

 

And I agree wholeheartedly with you.  Once the dots can be connected maybe there might be a global consensus on where and how it originated, much like they found with MERS.

[mommysboy]

51 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

It's funny, I would guess 50% of us think we've had Corona already.  I know I do.  January, a sickness that was different than anything else i've had before (or now I'm telling myself that).  shortness of breath, but not terrible, very high fever that didn't want to go away, a very dry cough that seemed different...... i'm sure it wasn't covid, and just a sign that i'm getting older and need to take care of my immune system better.  

 

since covid, got rid of sugar.  wow, big difference.  vitamin D, seems to help, no idea.

 

Why do we want to think we had it?  BECAUSE that means we are strong and covid didn't kill us.  ALSO it terrifies us that if we DIDN"T have it before, wow, that means covid will probably kill us because we got sooo sick on something not as strong.  it's scary.  

 

But note, a study was done in New York to test people who thought they'd had covid 19, it yielded a positive rate of 40%.  The study was part of a plasma trial led by Amy Weinberg at the Mt Sinai institute I believe.  Of those who they knew had suffered covid 19 the same test was 99.5%.  Maybe you did have it maybe you didn't, but to assume you didn't and that you are merely using your belief as a self protection mechanism isn't so right.  We don't know! that's what really bugs people imo.

 

 

[poohy]

8 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I did have a chesty cough that I couldn't shake off for weeks in BKK December last year, the girl I was with kept on telling to see a doctor, which I didn't.

Exactly the same here in Prachuap 3 weeks of coughing barking etc couldn't shake it 

[Farma]

Interesting story in the news showing possible wuhan lab shutdown in October.

Quote

shows no cellphone activity at the Wuhan Institute of Virology between Oct. 7 and Oct. 24, 2019 and says there may have been a “hazardous event” sometime between Oct. 6 and 11.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/09/cellphone-data-could-indicate-october-shutdown-at-wuhan-lab/

[tribalfusion001]

I do remember who I met now and developed a chesty cough afterwards. She was a medical sales rep who travelled around hospitals in BKK selling medical supplies and she had flu like symptoms for a week. I had already met her previously a few times and after I got this cough, I complained to her that she gave it to me. Must have been around early December, I'll have to go through the LINE chat to find the exact date.

 

I had no fever, no runny nose, no sneezing, just a persistant cough for a couple of weeks. Since giving up smoking in July last year and vaping instead I haven't had any coughs apart from this one time.

[mommysboy]

9 hours ago, Farma said:

Interesting story in the news showing possible wuhan lab shutdown in October.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/09/cellphone-data-could-indicate-october-shutdown-at-wuhan-lab/

Interesting is something of an understatement.  You have to wonder about the veracity of the information though.

[uhuh]

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

But note, a study was done in New York to test people who thought they'd had covid 19, it yielded a positive rate of 40%.  

Charité Hospital,  Berlin,  has tested many people who thought they might have had covid 19 before February. Positive rate was 0%

[yuyiinthesky]

3 minutes ago, uhuh said:

Charité Hospital,  Berlin,  has tested many people who thought they might have had covid 19 before February. Positive rate was 0%

PCR or antibody test? (If PCR then probably useless.)
Source?

[uhuh]

Prof Christian Drosten

He maybe knows a bit more about the subject than you. 

[mauGR1]

25 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Interesting is something of an understatement.  You have to wonder about the veracity of the information though.

Methinks that we are at some point in which we have to question the veracity of every information.

[andy72]

20 hours ago, Monomial said:

While the December 11 date has never been controversial, pushing the origin back to as early as the beginning of October lends support to the hypothesis that the virus that began spreading through Thailand in early to mid November was in fact the new corona virus, and that a big reason why Thailand's numbers have been so low is because the peak of the infection passed long before anyone even knew to look for it.

 

The hypothesis can be tested if anyone can get a hold of raw, monthly mortality figures for Thailand including late 2019 and January 2020. The pattern of deaths should be noticeably skewed from earlier years where no virus was present if the speculation is correct.

 

I am afraid your supposition is wrong.

Going by infection rates temperate zones viral load. no peak would have been present in mortality rates.
The Dec date is way off, much earlier than that 
The virus has difficulty spreading in warm climates, it is also known that viral load ie how much of the virus you are exposed to relates to the severity of infection.
Now if it was here the load would have been low infections passed of as seasonal and unlike colder climates never gained real traction

The virus was either present or arrived in Wuhan with the Military Games.
It certainly looks like the French team got infected.
Now for arguments/debating sake it goes as follows
Arrival Wuhan temperature highs of 23 dropping to 11 at night but its already 19th Oct

The virus may depart China at this point but its contained within the military structure of each participating nation it returns to army bases, naval bases etc it does not get out into the public  its contained and only infecting young healthy military and to them its a cold its a flu they are fit healthy less chances it will progress to a serious infection 

In Wuhan Nov temperatures 17/8 the virus stays behind its still not gaining much traction epidemics dont occur over night incubation can be 3 weeks
Dec Temperature Wuhan 11/3 its getting cold the virus by this point is gaining real ground spreading quicker the viral load being more due to the weather.
Then Boom you have an epidemic and the Chinese never acted quickly enough

it traveled we know several Church groups in Singapore were initially infected

Singapore's tracking traced it back to a single couple from Wuhan.

From Singapore it jumped globally

 

Now to back up some of the reasoning here in Thailand death rates and infection rates not so high

same with Malaysia

Unfortunately Malaysia can trace 50% of its infected to a single Tablighi meeting(MUSLIM)

but their infection rates and death rates remain low

 

Most SE Asian countries remain the same & yes there may be a high herd immunity already 

 

Europe where its cold have more elderly and more obesity and more pre existing conditions have saw greater death rates'It was cold so infection rates were also high

 

you can pretty much place the same model everywhere except Indonesia

 

Now Indonesia has saw a lot of deaths in Jakarta not all attributed to C19 but looking at death figures there's a really large spike denoting that the virus was at play

WE can only assume its a high load criteria because its not cold but the same Tablighi and mosque gatherings kissing hands etc high contamination.

 

SO NOW TO PI>SS PEOPLE OFF

 

YES we know the virus as WUHAN THAT IS BECAUSE IT IS THE OUTBREAK CENTER.

 

It was not the wet market it was not the lab it is just unfortunate that a lab was there

we want scape goats 

we want to blame someone

Well WHO & China were slow, its difficult call to make CNY was coming up its the biggest migration

No Matter how much power XI has he still sits atop a pedestal that can be toppled the last thing he want to do is cancel CNY 

he misjudged it none of us here are global leaders in charge of a population of 1.5 billion

WHO was the same they both sort of agreed give it a week but <deleted> hit the fan.

 

So China blamed USA of bringing it to the games

USA said it was a lab leak

 

Everyone is playing their power games and it stalls the true tracking 

 

A French Algerian from a fish market in France was the first backtracked recently he is a DEC infection earlier than the Chinese exodus.

 

Now in keeping with many here saying they had like infections you may well have had and its severity was related to location 

 

Everybody's pride is hurting no one wants to take the blame we play the blame game

 

China stood up yesterday and said it made mistakes that's step 1.

 

we know that happened its past 

calling an airborne viral infection into an epidemic is hard

its not cholera typhoid which usually strikes many at the same time

its a build up 

we missed it 

that is the infallibility of humans

 

hating China might make you feel better

just as slagging of the Thais

for all you UK and USA folk wow your leaders really wiped out C19 Good Job#

I rest my case your Honor

 

 

 
 

 

 

[Tropicalevo]

OMG.

The virus started here in Thailand and we gave it to the Chinese?

Sorry - just joking. Then again.........