1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Both of them far too optimistic.

If this country allowed me to bet, I'd bet on no vaccine, borders still effectively closed, and less than 1M.

When you say less than 1 million your just being safe.....I would guess a lot lot less than 1 million like around 300,000 to 500,000....

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think Burmese truck drivers really count, this thread is clearly about foreign tourists.

Burmese truck drivers don't have much money, and I've never seen one outside my 7-11 swinging on a bottle of Chang

 

 

It's not that long ago 10M visitors was the norm and that was considered high, lol.... https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think Burmese truck drivers really count, this thread is clearly about foreign tourists.

Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if they were included in TATs insanely inflated arrival numbers. ????

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's getting back to when Thailand was a joy to visit. Wish I could be one of the 8 million. It would be fantastic and I might get treated well, for a change.

People look on it as a bad thing, but I think it's an opportunity to turn LOS around and make it a destination worth visiting, which it wasn't, IMO, before corona.

Had I visited in 2019 for the first time it'd probably be the only time.

 

I don't get this Thailand is ruined and so. It's still a great place to visit. 

Sure it changed, but all places changed worldwide since mass tourism started. 

 

I however met a lot of old timers sitting in the bars complain about how things changed, everything is to expensive and so on and bloody tourists ruined the country. 

 

Don't they realize that they too are tourists that started the problem....we're all part of that.....

Thailand change because we travel there. 

 

Been to Thailand 12 times and had great vacations and will continue to visit when this Corona chaos is over.

 

I hope to be one of those 8 millions so I can get back to Samui in July. 

 

 

The financial and tourism expert that I believe myself to be, I am predicting a maximum of 800,000 foreign visitors next year... of whom 799,462 are going to be Chinese.

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I'm taking bets here guys, 10 to 1 odds ( joking yes) that 8 millions WILL NOT come to Thailand this is year.. that's mean 133,000 tourist a day starting tomorrow..

who's in?...

Don't take up a job reading contracts or anything with figures ezzra..............

 

ONLY 8 million foreign tourists likely to visit Thailand           next year

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

At the moment (July/August/September) 1,500 people/day entered Thailand, foreigners only and that is with land borders closed and draconian travel restrictions. 

Just lifting the restriction a little and we will easily see 2-3 million visitors. 

So lets see if there have been 1,500 a day since July, then we have just under 250,000 entering as of the end of October so that is 4 months x 3 = approximately 750k for an entire year. Yes if they eased the restrictions you might get double that amount in a year, or hell who knows how many are actually still locked out that have valid Visa's or Extensions of stay with re-entry permits.  Just how many can Quarantine facilities house?  Not sure but the numbers per day you listed still seems like quite a few to have entered the country and gone through Quarantine.  Where did you find the stats of 1,500 per day entering the country by the way?

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So lets see if there have been 1,500 a day since July, then we have just under 250,000 entering as of the end of October so that is 4 months x 3 = approximately 750k for an entire year. Yes if they eased the restrictions you might get double that amount in a year, or hell who knows how many are actually still locked out that have valid Visa's or Extensions of stay with re-entry permits.  Just how many can Quarantine facilities house?  Not sure but the numbers per day you listed still seems like quite a few to have entered the country and gone through Quarantine.  Where did you find the stats of 1,500 per day entering the country by the way?

 

From immigration.

 

Jan-Sep 2020 Arrival-Departure.xlsx

This seems like a good topic for a contest. Winner, closest to the official number, announced in 2022. You would need to factor in vaccine date and distribution, restrictions and travel rules (here and abroad), disposable income, horniness level of expats, 'travel bubbles' and whatever other variables you choose to consider and guess at. Winner gets a member upgrade. ????

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

From immigration.

 

Jan-Sep 2020 Arrival-Departure.xlsx 46.58 kB · 1 download

Thanks, I tried the website and it would not load, and your link will not load either for some reason.  Apparently my VPN blocks it as suspicious in nature as well as my security software platform.  That is just kind of funny that it thinks it might have a Virus...lol.

I calculate, not predict, 3900 ????, that is 100 and 1000 per month respectively. We already know that STV restriction stay in place till Sept 2021. So that is 100x9 plus perhaps 1000 more from Oct. to Dec. 2021.

 

 

While ever the ridiculous hoops remain the tourists will not return in sizeable numbers QED !!!

The way things are going, six months from now very few people in the West will have enough money to afford a holiday in Thailand.

TIT

6 hours ago, colinneil said:

So the financial experts say only 8 million tourists next year, hang on a minute T.A.T. says there will be 11 million Chinese tourists, so who is correct?

Clearly they never got their heads together before making their respective announcements.

 

Trust me, tomorrow some git will issue a statement to say BOTH are correct, and combined, they will in fact expect 19 million tourists next year, everything will be alright and they will charter flying pigs to bring all these tourists into the Land of Scams.

So many officials being paid to pluck meaningless predictions out of the air. Money would be better spent supporting the tourist industry so facilities are available when tourists are able to enter Thailand safely. 

37 minutes ago, Guderian said:

The way things are going, six months from now very few people in the West will have enough money to afford a holiday in Thailand.

Indeed.

With the second  ( and the third, fourth etc ) lockdown ruining even the bit of the economy that survived the first lockdown, who is going to be even considering an overseas holiday with extra expense and hoops to jump through? For retired people with lotsacash it'll be great though. They can spend quarantine time in a nice hotel with cable, but people that work don't have the spare time. Unemployed people will have higher priorities than international travel.

At the dart board again, I see

I predict, 3.8 million tourists. Anyone else?

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Financial experts say ONLY 8 million foreign tourists likely to visit Thailand next year

And most of those arrived before the borders were locked?

More BS

I predict zero if they continue to open their mouths. Only BS stories and predictions no reaal make sense solutions are proposed yet.

 

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Whether it is 8 or 11 million is largely irrelevant, the important part is million.

This can only mean that travel restrictions and quarantine will be lifted.

Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel after all.

It could also be someone coming the other way with a flash light, so I wont be taking any bets.

7 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Whether it is 8 or 11 million is largely irrelevant, the important part is million.

This can only mean that travel restrictions and quarantine will be lifted.

Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel after all.

I thought I saw light at the end of the tunnel. Turned out just be an R soul with a torch bringing more ???? 

43 minutes ago, Call said:

I predict, 3.8 million tourists. Anyone else?

I predict a riot .. ???? ???? 

Not much point in speculation as at any time can be hit with second wave of Virus.

7 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Tricky one...who to believe?.....TAT or financial experts.....I know who my money would be on.

 Correct, that nice  Mrs Smith at number 23, my Mavis says she's ever so good with numbers because of her bingo. 

8 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's financial experts have said that only eight million foreign tourists from all over the world are likely to visit Thailand next year.

Wow, that's about 20% of 2019 figures... I wonder how some of the attractions are going to survive another year?

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It would be fantastic and I might get treated well, for a change.

I don’t see it. Thais now look on Farangs as a danger .. as one guy said from his quarantine hey are afraid of us !