Thailand’s third COVID-19 wave has already peaked: CCSA

[Rookiescot]

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

 

Could easily be that the possibility of being detained in a field hospital puts the fear of God into everyone and they comply with Covid mandates.

 

And don’t go to get tested.....  so the test numbers and results of positive cases also falls.....

 

Testing will only be an effective metric when a large random proportion of the population is tested.

 

 

[chang1]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

Deaths always have a delay, so they come after the peak. So what your saying does not make sense. (peaking deaths have nothing to do with infections and that is what they are talking about)

A rough calculation is multiply the deaths by 1000 to give the number of infections 2 weeks ago. So if daily deaths start going down around the 7th of May they could be right.

[ourmanflint]

46 minutes ago, grandpa said:

I cannot understand how Thailand can control this virus so quickly when most of the rest of the world (who incidentally do a huge amount of testing by comparison) are still struggling to put the lid on it!  And if the figures are correct, why aren't world leaders calling in their droves to discover the secret of success?

 

 

Magic Thailand!

 

I love that this expert could so accurately and confidently state the peak of this third wave was on April 24th. Hope he got a pay rise

 

[richard_smith237]

1 minute ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

 

Agreed...  but covid-19 could be running rampant, but no one is really getting that sick from it (lots of asymptomatic cases).

 

The UK hospitals were not overflowing, they were busy at periods in areas of high population and case numbers. Nightingale hospitals were never needed to take the ‘overflow’ and ICU beds were never at full capacity. 

 

Why has South East Asia been impacted less severely ??? - this is a big question, I believe the answer comes down to an evolved immunity and genetics (i.e. South East asians have 4 specific missing genes which are prevalent in those who suffered severely with Covid-19 - This theory is referenced in the paper linked below).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3_reference.pdf

 

 

[Chiang Mai Bill]

44 minutes ago, grandpa said:

I cannot understand how Thailand can control this virus so quickly when most of the rest of the world (who incidentally do a huge amount of testing by comparison) are still struggling to put the lid on it!  And if the figures are correct, why aren't world leaders calling in their droves to discover the secret of success?

 

Yes, it's wonderful -- amazing -- how the Thai Government has been able to overcome the UK variant so quickly -- I'm sure they are sending their "magic formula" to all parts of the globe now!

 

So now they've got the UK variant under control Thai scientists will already be working on the formula to defeat the "Indian" variant -- which is much more virulent and is killing hundreds of thousands of Indians every day -- even though Thailand's containment measures won't allow it to enter Thailand!

[ourmanflint]

6 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

 

I think it is running rampant in Thailand but amongst younger people that wouldn't show up so much. It is only when it surfaces amongst more clinically vulnerable will you see what is happening elsewhere happen in Thailand. 

Thailand has to realise where they are on the curve, I personally think they have got it spectacularly wrong and the main peak is a few weeks away. 

[wealthychef]

If true, this is quite impressive work.  

6 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The number of cases peaked which is somewhat irrelevant and only related to the amount of testing.

 

 

Sorry but you couldn't be more wrong. Think.  If there are no cases, you can test at 100% and find no infections. If you have more cases, you will discover more of them with the same amount of tests.  In fact, while the number of cases is limited by not doing enough testing, if you test enough you can get a confidence which testing more will not improve.  In other words, the number of cases is related by by the amount of testing and the number of sick people.  If anything become  irrelevant with a fixed number of tests, it's the number of tests!  This trope needs to die.  

[AndyFoxy]

2 hours ago, Petey11 said:

Thai authorities need to package and sell their secret formula to defeating all strains of covid. One of the few countries in the world who can contain the UK variant in such a short time with no major restrictions. TIT, well done.

Just package up the Czar and send him to countries of concern.

[robblok]

14 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

The number of cases peaked which is somewhat irrelevant and only related to the amount of testing.

Thus: IF the number of people tested also peaked, it would make sense that the number of cases peaked. 

 

The ‘cases’ figures are highly misleading because they are purely related to the number of tests carried out. 

 

The true metric is ‘necessary hospitalisations’ those on ICU and deaths. 

 

Given Thailand’s testing methods and conclusion based on ‘test results’ alone is simply flawed. 

That was why i said if the testing method has been the same all the time. Otherwise.. no clue.

[2 is 1]

51 minutes ago, grandpa said:

I cannot understand how Thailand can control this virus so quickly when most of the rest of the world (who incidentally do a huge amount of testing by comparison) are still struggling to put the lid on it!  And if the figures are correct, why aren't world leaders calling in their droves to discover the secret of success?

 

If numbers are true (big if) they indeed have haddle well! Reason if so, Thailand is not democratic country! Goverment can more fast oder restriction to people. Many other country had to make new laws because restriction's (what needed) are against their constitution.

[Pauliewall]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

 

I've never seen anything concrete but there may be some form of pre-existing immunity amongst the populations in South-East Asia. Less susceptibility within the population coupled with other non-pharmaceutical interventions and gained immunity from infection mean that there's not enough candidates for a real overwhelming spread to happen.

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s third wave of COVID-19 infections has already peaked and the overall situation is stabilizing, the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said on Thursday.

We heard that last year after 1st wave, we heard it again after Xmas with the 2nd wave and now again with the 3rd wave... until the vaccine and inoculations are complete I have no doubt we will be hearing it again.

[Kiujunn]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

 

Could easily be that the possibility of being detained in a field hospital puts the fear of God into everyone and they comply with Covid mandates.

20000 baht is a better motivation.

In the village,  since that day I haven't seen anybody without a mask outside of the premises.

Trips to the amphoer are down to zero.

Visits to close relatives nearby, down to zero.

Nephew works in Chonburi and felt not well, wanted to come home - told in very clear terms to stay in Chonburi and get tested.

 

And in Bangkok? 

WFH

BTS often empty

Many people don't dare to go out of the house, or as little as possible.

 

It might work,  but I doubt it.

 

[itsari]

1 hour ago, IamNoone88 said:

The 4th wave is when they open up the borders.

Unofficially the borders are open . Thai employers more than ready to employ the unofficial border crossers. Not much said about them yet they have contributed a great deal to the present covid situation and very ready to criticize the European dwellers of Thailand as being the main danger.

[Cake Monster]

Thailand needs to bottle the Formula for stopping Covid, and Market it worldwide.

A much bigger money spinner than all the Tourists and SB combined 

I really dont know why the rest of the World has not obtained the formula yet from Thailand, they still continue to battle the Covid 19 Virus, and allow Thousands to die, when Thailand has the answers.

[GrandPapillon]

33 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If covid was running rampant in Thailand then we would see the hospitals overflowing with sick people.

We have all seen the horrific scenes from hospitals in India, Brazil, Italy and the UK to name a few.

Now I have no idea why in general south east asia seems to have been less affected. Maybe the virus does not like chili ????.  

people will stay at home and die there, will not show at the hospitals, hence the improbable low numbers

[Rookiescot]

31 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Agreed...  but covid-19 could be running rampant, but no one is really getting that sick from it (lots of asymptomatic cases).

 

The UK hospitals were not overflowing, they were busy at periods in areas of high population and case numbers. Nightingale hospitals were never needed to take the ‘overflow’ and ICU beds were never at full capacity. 

 

Why has South East Asia been impacted less severely ??? - this is a big question, I believe the answer comes down to an evolved immunity and genetics (i.e. South East asians have 4 specific missing genes which are prevalent in those who suffered severely with Covid-19 - This theory is referenced in the paper linked below).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3_reference.pdf

 

 

 

Thats in interesting read.

If Neanderthal genes are a contributing factor to how ill you become with covid no wonder so many of us here on Thai Visa are panicking ????.  

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

people will stay at home and die there, will not show at the hospitals, hence the improbable low numbers

 

Round here they set of fireworks when a household member dies. I would say (and yes this is purely anecdotal) that there are actually less fireworks being set off within earshot in the past year than normal. 

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Very true, but we only really have the numbers to go by.

Actually we only have the recorded numbers to go by. Given that they are the result of a criminally low level of testing then....

[Brunolem]

12 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

people will stay at home and die there, will not show at the hospitals, hence the improbable low numbers

And get no funerals...because funerals are a very visible thing in Thailand...

 

Moving around my area I don't see or hear about any...but maybe they are all dying on the other side of the country...

[GrandPapillon]

people dying in shame, usually don't advertise it to the community, just a thought ????

[Rookiescot]

2 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

people dying in shame, usually don't advertise it to the community, just a thought ????

 

Why would someone dying of covid bring shame?

[Golden Triangle]

Thailand’s third COVID-19 wave has already peaked: CCSA

They do like to tempt providence don't they.

 

[Brunolem]

43 minutes ago, Chiang Mai Bill said:

defeat the "Indian" variant -- which is much more virulent and is killing hundreds of thousands of Indians every day 

Hold your horses!

 

It's around 3,000 deaths per day which, given the size of the Indian population, is roughly the same as the 800 daily deaths in the US, and less than the 300 daily deaths in France.

[Caldera]

Thank goodness. All hail the Covid Czar.

 

[polpott]

2 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Actually we only have the recorded numbers to go by. Given that they are the result of a criminally low level of testing then....

Not really the case. All countries under report, admittedly Thailand more than most. Its due to the difficulty in collating the data accurately. However, if the method of collating that data doesn't change, then trends can be far more accurate.

 

Don't rely on the data, look at the trends, are new cases/deaths going up or down and you will have a far more accurate picture of the Covid situation in Thailand. Also, look at trends averaged over the last 7 days, not single day snapshots. The UK has now learned this lesson and now presents its data in 7 day windows.

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, IamNoone88 said:

The 4th wave is when they open up the borders.

I doubt that, it won't be gone when they fail to detect more cases.

 

The fourth wave will come in the same form as the third wave did, lots of people mixing closely in cool places with little air circulation.

 

The waves will only end when there's been a mass vaccination or the dominant strain of the virus mutates itself into something harmless.

 

[polpott]

7 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And get no funerals...because funerals are a very visible thing in Thailand...

 

Moving around my area I don't see or hear about any...but maybe they are all dying on the other side of the country...

During the first wave, I didn't hear of 1 person who contracted Covid in Pattaya. During this current wave I know several people personally who have contracted Covid, thankfully none have died. Its considerably more prevalent now than it has been before.

[cclub75]

1 hour ago, grandpa said:

I cannot understand how Thailand can control this virus so quickly when most of the rest of the world (who incidentally do a huge amount of testing by comparison) are still struggling to put the lid on it!  And if the figures are correct, why aren't world leaders calling in their droves to discover the secret of success?

 

 

It's not only Thailand... It's ALL EAST ASIA (China included).

 

Look at the numbers (deaths per million) and compare with America and Europe... (number of "cases" are totally irrelevant, and can not be used for comparisons).

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore etc.

 

The so called terrible pandemic... is a joke in this part of the world.

 

Here are possible explanations for such striking difference :

 

-1-all asian gvts are lying (this idea was strong regarding chinese numbers in 2020) : IMPOSSIBLE (1 year later, we would know if morgues were overwhelmed, through social medias)

 

-2-all western gvts are lying : PARTIALLY TRUE (we all know that "dead by Covid" is often "dead with Covid"... Even car accidents, heart attacks, cancers can be designated as "dead by covid". I remind you that in Belgium... if there is a simple "suspicion"... then it's "dead by covid".

In the UK, if the individual had a PCR test positive during the 28 days before the death... then "dead by covid".

 

-3-the asian people are less sensitive to the virus : COULD BE TRUE.

A study makes this call (cross immunity)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7568123/

 

-4-social distancing : the asian gvts are doing everything well, and the rest of the planet is doing wrong : FALSE.

Europe had very severe lockdowns for many month and the classic BS (masks, restaurants closed, even curfew)... So the idea that things are better managed in Asia is absurd (unless you think that lockdowns are counterproductive... that's another debate).

 

-5-asian countries treat the sick people, correctly (preventing death), when the rest of the world does not. FALSE

They all do.... nothing ("stay home" or "go hospital we keep you locked for 2 weeks", "take paracetamol").

Only small and poor countries are forced to play a different game (Zimbabwe uses ivermectin, etc.)

Asia, Europe and America follows indeed the same "path" : only vaccines will save us.

 

Only 3 could explain what's really is going on...

Edited April 30, 2021 by cclub75