Thailand’s household debt in Q1 2021 is highest in 18 years – Kasikorn Research

[snoop1130]

Photo by PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL / AFP

 

Thailand’s household debt in the first quarter of 2021 increased to 14.13 trillion baht, representing 90.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared to 89.4% of GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, and is at its highest in 18 years, when the Bank of Thailand started collecting data on household debt in the country, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre of Kasikorn Bank.

 

It attributed the rise to three types of borrowing, namely housing debt, business debt and debt to fund consumption.

 

Housing debt increased by 55.3 billion baht from last year’s fourth quarter, coinciding with the increase in sales of housing units in the 1-3 million baht and 3-5 million baht per unit price ranges.  The buyers are regarded as having high or moderately high income who have not been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and can still afford to pay the instalments.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-household-debt-in-q1-2021-is-highest-in-18-years-kasikorn-research/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-07-02

 

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[trainman34014]

No worries; the Bank Balances of all the Gangsters in Government House are bulging !

[brommers]

We are now beyond the second quarter of the year and the rate of decline has accelerated, so what these desk bound analysts are talking about is already totally out of date. The situation is nearing catastrophic.

[owl sees all]

The average debt of an Isaan family was over 500k when I arrived up here.

 

Shouldn't think the situation has improved.

[ThailandRyan]

Bankruptcies and returned vehicles will be next in order to keep their houses.  Rice and beans will become a staple ad a meal with Sontag and barbecued rats. Looking pretty grim from what I am seeing.

[RotBenz8888]

 

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

3-5 million baht per unit price ranges.

You'll get a 20m2 shoebox condo in the outskirts of Bangkok in that price range, if you're lucky. But it's an absolutely safe investment... 

[Rampant Rabbit]

7 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The buyers are regarded as having high or moderately high income who have not been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and can still afford to pay the instalments.

Maybe they  just  had the diligence to actually  set  money aside for a rainy day.

[Rampant Rabbit]

3 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

 

You'll get a 20m2 shoebox condo in the outskirts of Bangkok in that price range, if you're lucky. But it's an absolutely safe investment... 

Nonsense. 2million easy to find, I can show you  many at 1.5m 30m2 200 metres  BTS

[Rampant Rabbit]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Bankruptcies and returned vehicles will be next in order to keep their houses.  Rice and beans will become a staple ad a meal with Sontag and barbecued rats. Looking pretty grim from what I am seeing.

After advertsiing a  job recently and getting 100+ replies I can tell you most of the applicants were unemployable, one even stated he worked in Bangkok and coming to maintain Wifes 15  rai land and  garden would be a nice  holiday and it  looked relaxing when asked about his  ability to work outdoors  all day. Several accepted the job and never  turned  up despite  them calling to say "tomorrow" numerous  times one even said they w ere at the train station despite  having NOT been offered the job, Wife got sick of them and told them a  few  home truths  about being lazy and poor  and how they would stay that way and not to contact her again, some morons even rang at 2 am asking about the work.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Rampant Rabbit

[Rampant Rabbit]

6 hours ago, owl sees all said:

The average debt of an Isaan family was over 500k when I arrived up here.

 

Shouldn't think the situation has improved.

Many of them sold their inherited land to fund the "look at my new pick up"  lifestyle, including the Wifes  sister, now she has  nothing not even the pick up and no  more daily farcebook  photos of her  sipping iced  drinks at 30baht a time, serves the stupid  cow  right, even her Sister my Wife said that.

[Cake Monster]

12 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Bankruptcies and returned vehicles will be next in order to keep their houses.  Rice and beans will become a staple ad a meal with Sontag and barbecued rats. Looking pretty grim from what I am seeing.

And it may get bad for the Government also ( I say may )

The latest rise in Household Debt is showing that the Government are incapable / are unwilling to control the Debt,

This could possibly mean a re-rating from the Credit Agencies such as Moodys , which in turn will mean an increase in borrowing costs to the Government.

And the way the Covid outbreak  seems to be taking over the Country, the Government is going to have to borrow Money. If they are allowed to do so because the 80 % GDP on borrowing is already maxed out.

[clivebaxter]

7 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Nonsense. 2million easy to find, I can show you  many at 1.5m 30m2 200 metres  BTS

Really, would not mind having a look at those

[madmitch]

Of course this is recorded debt.

 

It doesn't include the amounts owed to family, friends and loan sharks.

 

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

13 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Bankruptcies and returned vehicles will be next in order to keep their houses.  Rice and beans will become a staple ad a meal with Sontag and barbecued rats. Looking pretty grim from what I am seeing.

Banks are currently not permitted to repossess vehicles by decree.

[Mr Meeseeks]

11 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

 

You'll get a 20m2 shoebox condo in the outskirts of Bangkok in that price range, if you're lucky. But it's an absolutely safe investment... 

I just sold a 32m2 condo up near Srinakarin for 900k

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, brommers said:

We are now beyond the second quarter of the year and the rate of decline has accelerated, so what these desk bound analysts are talking about is already totally out of date. The situation is nearing catastrophic.

Most Thais I know lower & upper middle class are up to their eyeballs in debt..

borrowing from every source available to keep their current lifestyle.

 

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

Banks are currently not permitted to repossess vehicles by decree.

I never said repossessed I said returned as in "Please take my car I can not pay for it any longer.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Many of them sold their inherited land to fund the "look at my new pick up"  lifestyle, including the Wifes  sister, now she has  nothing not even the pick up and no  more daily farcebook  photos of her  sipping iced  drinks at 30baht a time, serves the stupid  cow  right, even her Sister my Wife said that.

Selling the family silver is always a downward spiral.

[Mr Meeseeks]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I never said repossessed I said returned as in "Please take my car I can not pay for it any longer.

I don't know many Thais that would return a vehicle willingly even if they couldn't pay for it, however I was merely highlighting that there is currently a hidden but mounting problem.

 

It is only a matter of time however and once the repossessions start, holy moly...

 

Of course the banks and second hand dealers will value the vehicles at normal rates, but there will be a lack of demand due to the state of the economy, and so it continues.

 

Not to mention those businesses that rely on that vehicle.

 

Death spiral...

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Mr Meeseeks

[The Cipher]

31 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Most Thais I know lower & upper middle class are up to their eyeballs in debt..

borrowing from every source available to keep their current lifestyle.

 

I actually have noticed this too. I don't understand it at all. If the system is as leveraged as it appears, how will it ever get unwound in an organized manner?

 

Although I do wonder the same thing about leverage around the world generally, but I digress.

[Brickbat]

Most Thais are very gullible and the word “ consequences” is incomprehensible . When we see the next global crisis, there’ll be blood on the streets. And the super rich will, as usual, mop up more assets .

[trainman34014]

14 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

 

You'll get a 20m2 shoebox condo in the outskirts of Bangkok in that price range, if you're lucky. But it's an absolutely safe investment... 

Until Bangkok sinks !

[RichardColeman]

In all honesty what do you expect if you lose 20% of your economy and 6 millions tourism jobs ? Will only get far worse before it gets any better. 40,000,000 tourists have a huge knock on effect. I'd have to guess it will be 95% end of the year, and if Thailand does not fully open up to all early next year, then 100% will not be far off.

[ukrules]

14 hours ago, The Cipher said:

I actually have noticed this too. I don't understand it at all. If the system is as leveraged as it appears, how will it ever get unwound in an organized manner?

It won't, the whole 'house of cards' will collapse and burn.

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by ukrules

[Saraburi121]

Not taken into account is the unofficial lenders that charge exorbitant interest rates to mostly poor people.  There are a lot of them around everywhere.  

[Soikhaonoiken]

And will get even higher every quarter, until these clowns get this pandemic under control and let the people of this Country get back to work. 

[soi3eddie]

On 7/2/2021 at 1:06 PM, snoop1130 said:

according to the Kasikorn Research Centre

 

These people must be genius to figure that out. I'd suggest no research needed and even go as far to make a prediction that it will be even worse 3 months from now. 

 

[soi3eddie]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

In all honesty what do you expect if you lose 20% of your economy and 6 millions tourism jobs ? Will only get far worse before it gets any better. 40,000,000 tourists have a huge knock on effect. I'd have to guess it will be 95% end of the year, and if Thailand does not fully open up to all early next year, then 100% will not be far off.

 

If Thailand didn't have the familiaral support enabling people to go back to the villages then the situation would be even worse. Although there is very little welfare on offer, at least many are able to go back "upcountry" to the family and survive on rice and foraging with a roof over their heads. Imagine same in the west (without stimulus checks, furlough, bounceback loans and SEISS). It would be even more tragic than the current desperation. I saw today Thai airways flying from London to Phuket which is positive (but probably replacing, rather than adding to Bangkok). I did a search and there were less than 3 Thai airways flights in the air anywhere in the world. A long way to go until things improve.

 

 

 

[The Cipher]

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

It won't, the whole 'house of cards' will collapse and burn.

 

Will it? In theory if the debt-to-earnings ratio keeps expanding, then there's some point where the whole thing has to come down.

 

But borrowers seem to be perpetually stretched, and there ought to be a ton of shadow leverage in the system, since tons of loans here seem to be via informal peer-to-peer lending. How close to the end are we? Based on no data, it feels like it's gotta be close. And yet this system has gone on for so long....

 

I do wonder if there will be policy-mandated debt forgiveness at some point to avoid a disorderly collapse.

[Stargeezr]

I have Thai relatives who are in debt, and if they were not able to get a cheap interest loan from

some rich family member, they would have lost their business and house.  This pandemic may not

affect the ultra rich Thai or the elite, but it certainly has affected the normal Thais who were just surviving

before the pandemic hit. I am sure that by next year, there will be a lot less businesses, restaurants, hotels

and guest houses and of course a lot of the bars, that have all gone completely bankrupt, and out of business for good.

  It is happening in Canada as well.  The world is different today and will be a lot more different by next year.

Geezer