ALL these numbers what do they mean?

.

1.  Thailand ranking is useless information. It is relative to the testing effort that the government is doing to control the virus , and how well the vaccination effort is coming along. " low testing  =  low numbers.."

 

2. Number of infection.  already Bangkok is in lockdown mode but it is not advertised to avoid blame and panic. Lockdown is the only resort to  avoid infection until vaccination of 50% of the population occurs.. Lockdown with nothing is still nothing.

 

3.Happy days are here again" the Phuket Sandbox". the 2,000 tourists coming to Phuket are to stay in 5 star hotel and enjoy a 2 weeks holiday next to the pool.

That is it. that is it and go home.

 None will be able to visit  infected Bangkok or go to any provinces with a lock down.. I want to know how many of the 2,000 visitors will continue visiting Thailand and how many will they return home.  that is the number I want to know

 

It has been noted that during the good days many visitor comes to Phuket to stay in the big 5 stars hotel fully equipped : with beach front, pool , shopping, massages, fitness activities, and food. even they may have luxury dinner cruises. And never wonder outside the hotel .The sandbox goal is to bring visitors to those big hotels

10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

If this does not get them moving forward with provincial lockdowns and no travel, I do not know what to say.  I feel bad for those who have traveled to the sandbox for a vacation which could have included travel elsewhere in Thailand, but why travel internationally especially to a country where the cases are continuing to stack up daily as well as deaths and the populace is barely even vaccinated.

 

My heart goes out to the families of those who have lost a loved one, and this government needs to accept full responsibility instead of passing the buck as they have created the fiasco we are now seeing by their poor attempt at handling this, but then so have other countries, yet we are just now entering the dark days.

missing the point..

the visitor in phuket came for a 14 days holiday  only ..No matter of their intention, most of them will go home .  the rest will not be able to go anywhere to any provinces. 

 

2 minutes ago, the green light said:

missing the point..

the visitor in phuket came for a 14 days holiday  only ..No matter of their intention, most of them will go home .  the rest will not be able to go anywhere to any provinces. 

 

Not sure about your breakdown. Whatever the numbers are to sandbox, many will be expats with significant ties here. I suggest number more than tourists. Especially now with situation in the rest of Thailand.

Only a guess. No data to back it up.

 

 

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Wait until the Lambda variant hits….

It needs to outcompete Delta for hosts....is it more transmissible, and has it been shown to outcomete delta in other countries? It it can outcompete delta it is also likely to be milder - deadly viruses kill their hosts and tend to spread less quickly. 

39 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

All I know is what I post: as long as admission numbers are higher than discharge numbers, the system is not maxed out yet.

 

When discharge numbers exceed admission numbers, then the epidemic is waning.

 

this is not rocket science. I am sorry if these simple concepts trigger some people.

 

if admissions exceed discharges tomorrow, then clearly the system as of today is not maxed out. I understand this bothers certain people here, nothing I can do about that.

 

BTW, I saw a video on FB today showing a Bangkok area hospital with filled acute care beds in what seemed to be a parking garage. There was no source link for the video, so I didn’t post it here.

 

 

Maxed out is a slang term. It has no precise technical meaning. Failure is measured in numbers of people who are turned away, fail to find adequate accommodation, or receive needed services.  Not by a theoretical number of free rooms somewhere.

 

Bangkok hospitals began to fail when they started turning away patients and ill people could not find proper and timely accommodation, or had to leave Bangkok altogether.

 

51 minutes ago, the green light said:

missing the point..

the visitor in phuket came for a 14 days holiday  only ..No matter of their intention, most of them will go home .  the rest will not be able to go anywhere to any provinces. 

 

Are you sure they were all tourists? What percentage are returning expats who jumped into the sandbox scheme to get home to the family here somewhere in Thailand, how many are media types invited and then how many are only on a 14 day holiday out of the 2300 some odd folks that have arrived in 8 days now.  Please share your statistics with us, and no I did not miss the point at all, you saying most will go home after 14 days is just laughable.   

Phra Yut has blood on his hands... In 2014, we became the new Burma. We're about to become the new India.

1 hour ago, rabas said:

Maxed out is a slang term. It has no precise technical meaning. Failure is measured in numbers of people who are turned away, fail to find adequate accommodation, or receive needed services.  Not by a theoretical number of free rooms somewhere.

 

Bangkok hospitals began to fail when they started turning away patients and ill people could not find proper and timely accommodation, or had to leave Bangkok altogether.

 

Unfortunately, you don’t understand why the system maxing out has significance. 

 

The number of hospital walk-in admissions is predictive of future near term overall new cases. At least it is until the number of walk-in cases is completely capped by capacity, ie, the system is maxed. We’ll know that if the number of admissions = discharges, ie people can only be admitted when a bed is freed by a discharge.

 

Contrary to an earlier post, the predictive value of the number of walk-in cases is not dependent on how long someone has waited for a bed.

 

Once admissions = discharges, then the next milestone is when admissions are fewer than discharges, which will tell us that the epidemic is waning. Of course, it might be temporary, as it was a few weeks ago.

 

Clearly, the most vocal types here don’t want to hear about this, so I welcome them posting 100 times about the incompetence of some official, I am sure that is a lot more interesting. 

Happening in Indonesia as well. Now it's infecting the young and there is a shortage of oxygen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/warning-over-children-as-indonesia-suffers-its-worst-covid-outbreak?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

With all the young crowding into Wembley, and pubs for the football last night, infection rates are likely to spike amongst the younger age groups now.

 

Delta variant spreading fast.

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

6,990 admissions, 4,978 discharges, so they squeezed 2,000 people into full hospitals. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

Or into community centers, or into field hospitals, or on pavements outside the hospital, or in construction worker camps, or some other kind of bubble and seal facility.

 

Covid cases don’t just go into proper hospitals for proper medical treatment.

3 hours ago, anchadian said:

The prime minister posted on his Facebook that he has called for a CCSA meeting tomorrow. “We may need to impose more stringent measures to limit travel, stop group activities, close more locations, and take other necessary measures.” He promised “to take good care of everyone”.

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413077988476817408

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said today (Thursday) tougher measures are necessary to handle the rising COVID-19 infections and deaths over the past few weeks, as further restrictions proposed today by the Public Health Ministry are to be deliberated by the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) which he chairs tomorrow.

 

More:

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-pm-says-tougher-covid-19-measures-are-necessary/

14 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Happening in Indonesia as well. Now it's infecting the young and there is a shortage of oxygen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/warning-over-children-as-indonesia-suffers-its-worst-covid-outbreak?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

With all the young crowding into Wembley, and pubs for the football last night, infection rates are likely to spike amongst the younger age groups now.

 

Delta variant spreading fast.

I think the UK has given up on worrying about cases. Hospitalizations and deaths seems to be their focus now.

 

sorry, a bit off topic from Thailand Covid.

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said today (Thursday) tougher measures are necessary to handle the rising COVID-19 infections and deaths over the past few weeks, as further restrictions proposed today by the Public Health Ministry are to be deliberated by the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) which he chairs tomorrow.

 

More:

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-pm-says-tougher-covid-19-measures-are-necessary/

Tomorrow now? I thought it was being mulled at a Monday meeting.

 

maybe someone mentioned that the situation is urgent……

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

I think the UK has given up on worrying about cases. Hospitalizations and deaths seems to be their focus now.

 

sorry, a bit off topic from Thailand Covid.

We have to "learn to live with it", so as long as the vaccines hold the hospitalisations and deaths down, which they appear to be doing for now, then life will slowly get back to some form of normality.

 

Of course, every vaccine objector who gets their scientific information from Facebook is a potential vessel for a new, vaccine-resistant strain of the virus.

 

33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Unfortunately, you don’t understand why the system maxing out has significance. 

 

The number of hospital walk-in admissions is predictive of future near term overall new cases. At least it is until the number of walk-in cases is completely capped by capacity, ie, the system is maxed. We’ll know that if the number of admissions = discharges, ie people can only be admitted when a bed is freed by a discharge.

 

Contrary to an earlier post, the predictive value of the number of walk-in cases is not dependent on how long someone has waited for a bed.

 

Once admissions = discharges, then the next milestone is when admissions are fewer than discharges, which will tell us that the epidemic is waning. Of course, it might be temporary, as it was a few weeks ago.

 

Clearly, the most vocal types here don’t want to hear about this, so I welcome them posting 100 times about the incompetence of some official, I am sure that is a lot more interesting. 

“Once admissions = discharges, then the next milestone is when admissions are fewer than discharges, which will tell us that the epidemic is waning. Of course, it might be temporary, as it was a few weeks ago.”

 

so in fact, it tells us nothing because whatever it tells us, it could be temporary?

 

thanks for all the posts about a meaningless theory.

10 hours ago, rabas said:

Too late here, at least before hitting 10s of thousands per day. Exponential rises only stop accelerating after strong concerted measures. Thailand is out of ammunition. Testing has maxed out, they don't have the labs or equipment, hospitals are already full, patients are lining up in the streets, and adequate vaccines are not on the horizon, even if they could tell the truth for once.  (thanks Anutin). 

But Phuket is “open.” You’ve gotta laugh. If the situation wasn’t so dire.

15 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Or into community centers, or into field hospitals, or on pavements outside the hospital, or in construction worker camps, or some other kind of bubble and seal facility.

 

Covid cases don’t just go into proper hospitals for proper medical treatment.

You are basically saying that there is some large number of people who need to be hospitalized, but there isn't capacity for them. We can't count those people, for obvious reasons. 

 

At the same time, we have data on actual admissions to hospitals. 

 

I guess you are suggesting that we ignore the available data, and just go with our feelings. 

11 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

“Once admissions = discharges, then the next milestone is when admissions are fewer than discharges, which will tell us that the epidemic is waning. Of course, it might be temporary, as it was a few weeks ago.”

 

so in fact, it tells us nothing because whatever it tells us, it could be temporary?

 

thanks for all the posts about a meaningless theory.

It tells us about near term infections.  The hospital walk-in data is sufficiently important that it is used by contact tracers to identify new clusters. 

 

I guess you're not a data guy. 

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It tells us about near term infections.  The hospital walk-in data is sufficiently important that it is used by contact tracers to identify new clusters. 

 

I guess you're not a data guy. 

Not when the contact tracing has become overwhelmed and they cannot trace anymore as is the case reported today by the Health Ministry

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It tells us about near term infections.  The hospital walk-in data is sufficiently important that it is used by contact tracers to identify new clusters. 

As long as it's not "MAXED OUT".

Think I'm getting the hang of the game.

So if walk in don't get to walk in because doors shut then the contact tracers can't trace. More importantly since they are not even seen or tested then we never get to me "Maxed Out".

I get it now. 

Imagine Thailand getting as concerned about 75 dead on the roads  ? 

 

Oh well 

Sorry to say, but I do not see any way that it will not top 10,000 new infections and >100 deaths within this month. Probably within the next 10 days.

 

Nothing to stop the trajectory.

33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are basically saying that there is some large number of people who need to be hospitalized, but there isn't capacity for them. We can't count those people, for obvious reasons. 

 

At the same time, we have data on actual admissions to hospitals. 

 

I guess you are suggesting that we ignore the available data, and just go with our feelings. 

There is a very large number who don’t need to be hospitalized, they are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. But they still detained in a field hospital, or bubble and seal, or community centre.

 

can you give me the data for hospital admissions please? Of course you can’t. All you have is one number on the daily graphic. And from that you build a whole thesis that not only tells the whole story of current state of play but also future state of play.

 

you have one piece of data, one graphic with two numbers on it and that’s it. Ignore everything else. It’s not very scientific.

14 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Sorry to say, but I do not see any way that it will not top 10,000 new infections and >100 deaths within this month. Probably within the next 10 days.

 

Nothing to stop the trajectory.

 

The cats are out of the bag at this point, and appear to be running wild, with nothing much likely to stop them any time soon.

 

It certainly won't be because of substantial COVID vaccinations among the public at large, which remain at a pitifully low, single digit percentage level still for full vaccinations.

 

Oh lovely........................squeeze em in  

 

Semi al fresco #COVID19 ward at a crowded hospital in Bangkok. 

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413151996966703116

 

Govt 2 consider asking residents of Metro Bangkok 2 avoid being outside home from 10pm-4pm & avoid unnecessary travelling outside home except for buying grocery, medicines or 4 vaccinations. Decision to be made tomorrow.

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413147507761156103

 

37 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It tells us about near term infections.  The hospital walk-in data is sufficiently important that it is used by contact tracers to identify new clusters. 

 

I guess you're not a data guy. 

Data is used to take decisions. ALL data, not just a minuscule amount of it, that then gets incorrectly extrapolated to determine that the hospital system is not overwhelmed. Which is what you are saying, correct?
 

You are saying that there are beds available for patients everyday, and as many patients that have turned up so far, have been found a bed and more are available? And it follows suit that you believe  EVERY piece of data that points to the opposite is rubbish, because it doesn’t suit your narrative, which is derived from a tiny sliver of data that you have misused.

 

every doctor is lying about the bed situation, every government announcement is a lie, every person sitting outside of a hospital on a pavement, beds in garages, every media report etc etc etc. all of it is bad data because it doesn’t suit your narrative.

 

instead you keep deducting one number from another every day and, yup, plenty of beds available. According to you, as of yesterday they had two THOUSAND beds sitting idle the day before and added that many patients.

 

Do you really believe they have two thousand beds empty now as we speak? Because tomorrow when you deduct the number of discharges from admissions, you will find that  there are an extra two thousand plus patients. And the next day, two thousand more and so on. Where are the pictures of all these thousands upon thousands of empty beds that you say are available for future patients? let me tell you, they don’t exist.
 

The hospital system in the Bangkok area is close to overwhelmed. Data tells me that and not just two figures, one deducted from the other.

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Oh lovely........................squeeze em in  

 

Semi al fresco #COVID19 ward at a crowded hospital in Bangkok. 

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413151996966703116

 

Hi tech….they have fans.

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Hi tech….they have fans.

They're all waiting for the numbers to be announced tomorrow  by a certain poster here to see if they'll have a bed waiting for them inside

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Govt 2 consider asking residents of Metro Bangkok 2 avoid being outside home from 10pm-4pm & avoid unnecessary travelling outside home except for buying grocery, medicines or 4 vaccinations. Decision to be made tomorrow.

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413147507761156103

 

I think that might be 4am not 4pm!