Latest foreign tourist assessment: Kasikorn downgrades to just 150,000 visitors before year's end

[HAPPYNUFF]

A bit off topic, but  considering  the new   visa  regulations   coming in place, retrospectively, in Malaysia,  whereby for a retiree, a monthly income of  $9400, plus in excess of $300,000  in the bank, permanently, is     going to be  the requirement, I have little doubt the  wonders that run this circus will be looking, and considering similar legislation....    But hey, think of all those rich  Chinese and Indian  tourists  who will take  our place??? Two weeks at a time, no less.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's Kasikorn research thinktank has completely reassessed their predictions for the number of foreign tourists likely to visit Thailand in the remainder of this year.

3 key words... 

reassessed, predictions, likely.

Just more drivel.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The country needed to look towards next year for any possible improvement in the numbers utilizing knowledge gained from experience of 2021.

With Prayut asking health agencies to have a good vaccine procurement programme in 2022 that might get of to a slow start too, especially if one of the jabs is still Sinovac.

[ukrules]

8 minutes ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

A bit off topic, but  considering  the new   visa  regulations   coming in place, retrospectively, in Malaysia,  whereby for a retiree, a monthly income of  $9400, plus in excess of $300,000  in the bank, permanently, is     going to be  the requirement, I have little doubt the  wonders that run this circus will be looking, and considering similar legislation....    But hey, think of all those rich  Chinese and Indian  tourists  who will take  our place??? Two weeks at a time, no less.

 

These new regulations are designed to prevent people from coming - they don't want them any more.

 

[eastendanto]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

TAT will soon come along to correct this factual nonsense. 

Less than 6 months ago they predicted 11 million, then 8 million, 6 million tourist arrivals for 2021.

Reality is a bitch when you have a-nut-in(charge) of the worst vaccination program, in the world.

they have a vaccination program??

[orchidfan]

1 hour ago, Gsxrnz said:

Here's my two-bob's worth to supplement their data.  On a scooter ride of approximately 3klm from Pattaya Central Festival Mall to Jomtien at 1:30pm today. I counted 78 moving vehicles, including scooters.  And 48 of those were the ones I overtook (or undertook) going in my direction. The record low for the same trip was last week (Wednesday I think), when the total count was 42.

 

There ain't nobody here and there ain't nobody coming any time soon.

 

 

Have a look at Da Nang , Vietnam. 

Just the same. Empty streets, beaches. Everything closed and shuttered. Like an eerie ghost town. 

[BE88]

22 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

These new regulations are designed to prevent people from coming - they don't want them any more.

 

Don't you think they just want only richer people?

[ukrules]

3 minutes ago, BE88 said:

Don't you think they just want only richer people?

No, what they've done here is throw up roadblocks which exclude almost everyone.

 

I've noticed over the years that governments often do this kind of thing instead of banning something outright.

 

If they ban something outright then there might be retaliation in kind from other countries. Leaving the door slightly open leaves room for diplomacy.

 

[terryofcrete]

2 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

There ain't nobody here and there ain't nobody coming any time soon.

 

In Pattaya .....No One Hears You Scream ! 

[2 is 1]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

Yes they look really desperate to travel!

 

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

There is also a countermovement. Many expats, business owners and older long-term retirees are planning their departure from Thailand. Some fly home because they can get an effective vaccination against C19 Delta immediately in their home countrys. Others fear that the lockdown wave will continue for months. No fun here. Restaurants, Bars, Entertainment, Attractions sights closed, alcohol bans, curfew, visa stress, restricted round trips and tourist ghost towns. Business owners and many foreign teachers give also up because they can no longer make money. With all the forecast numbers of the arrivals there are also the numbers of the departures, which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

Most elderly expats don't care about any of that.

I'm happy enough at home, watching movies, cooking my own food, walks in the jungle, bit of cycling, and the local booze store is always open. I don't really need restaurants, bars, attractions ...... curfew makes little difference, VISA extensions are the easiest they've ever been now the crowds have gone.

 

The weather is warm, the air is clear ....... enjoy life while you can.

[Scott Tracy]

Why do we even give these people credibility? We predict this will happen, but oops, we <deleted> up, but it doesn't matter,  we'll adjust the numbers. No one will notice.

 

We used to punish charlatans and soothsayers and fraudsters. Now we give them the oxygen of publicity. Can't this be classified as fake news?

 

[khunpa]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

Anyone who believed it would return to normal on October 1 needs a reality check.

 

People actually seem to believe the rubbish that the government have been saying all year.

 

I have a guy in belgium who does my bidding over there and he genuinely believes it's all over for them ????

I told him only yesterday to prepare for the worst in the next 2 months and he laughed it off, him and all his friends know it's all over because their idiot government told them so.

They're all wrong, every one of them.

 

Everything comes as a surprise to these people yet if you look close enough you can see it coming long before it hits.

 

Totally agree. With the way this virus has been acting, we are far away from “normal” and will be so for a very long time.

 

This virus is not getting weaker and for years to come, it will be a fight between vaccine-development and the various  virus mutations. 

In a few years from now we will be so “pumped” with vaccines, that we no longer can remember what we took. And we have no idea of the long-term effects.

 

As time goes by, the world will get more and more devided due to this pandemic. It already is, with rich countries now giving 3rd booster shots and poor countries not having provided the first shot. Let’s hope they do not find out this is actually leaked from the lab in China. Then we are even more screwed.

 

This is far from over and anyone thinking “normal” is just around the corner needs a reality check.

[Bangkok Barry]

1 hour ago, Percy P said:

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

Why?

[Peterphuket]

3 hours ago, andersonat said:

I understand that there's only a limited amount of space in a news-article/media-announcement, but I'd *really* like to learn/know how (for example) TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.  --  Does it come from polling potential Tourists in foreign-countries, does it come from questioning Tourists who are actually in Thailand, does it come from analysing flight/travel-trends from Airlines/Hotel-Booking-Companies ?

 ----   Do the Thai Government or the Research-Organisations ever actually publish the details upon which their calculations/predictions are based ? 

 

Do you really like to know? Really?

Ha, ha, they don't even know that.

[hashmodha]

Realistic numbers!?

Edited August 19, 2021 by hashmodha
Additional information

[chang1]

1 hour ago, Xonax said:

And Thailand totally killed domestic tourism, just to get 150.000 foreign arrivals in 2021. Domestic tourists would have spent many times the amount, that these foreign "tourists" will ever spend!

How was domestic tourism affected by the sandbox? I don't see foreign tourists have any advantages over locals, although after jumping through all the hoops and checks we should. 

[jak2002003]

1 minute ago, chang1 said:

How was domestic tourism affected by the sandbox? I don't see foreign tourists have any advantages over locals, although after jumping through all the hoops and checks we should. 

Domestic tourists are not allowed to travel to and from Phuket.

 

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

On top of this the country is also facing political instability that is also not conducive to promoting the kingdom as a place for international tourism. 

Reality bites deep and it bites hard.

 

Astute political observers have known this would be a risk for quite some time now.

 

Irreconcilable differences of those in power and the general population of the country. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Mr Meeseeks

[redwood1]

2 hours ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

A bit off topic, but  considering  the new   visa  regulations   coming in place, retrospectively, in Malaysia,  whereby for a retiree, a monthly income of  $9400, plus in excess of $300,000  in the bank, permanently, is     going to be  the requirement, I have little doubt the  wonders that run this circus will be looking, and considering similar legislation....    But hey, think of all those rich  Chinese and Indian  tourists  who will take  our place??? Two weeks at a time, no less.

It's actually worse than this...

see here

 

https://www.expatgo.com/my/2021/08/12/shocking-new-mm2h-programme-requirements-will-disqualify-nearly-all-applicants-and-existing-visa-holders/

Edited August 19, 2021 by redwood1

[Mavideol]

here we have a real estimate, and yes it's NOT from TAT because the TAT people are the Czars of false BS hopes, estimates and predictions/contradictions   555

 

on another post

 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) hopes to add 500,000 Russian visitors to its 1 million international tourists this year,

Thai Tourism Sector Expects 500,000 Russian Visitors after Endorsement of Sputnik V Vaccine

Edited August 19, 2021 by Mavideol

[Pracha Duang]

There’s Phuket airport this morning for anyone interested in a dose of reality. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

4 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

Immigration stopped publishing arrival/departure data. Obviously honesty and transparency is not a priority for a military government. 

 

Up untill May last year, Immigration published very detailed arrival statistics,  broken down by over 200 nationalities and every conceivable visa type.

[Gandtee]

Perhaps Kasikorn Think Tank, should be disbanded and given a better job. For instance. Like researching where to access vaccines. And how to distribute and administer them. Coming up with hypothetical figures is a complete nonsense and a waste of taxpayers money. So many ridiculous figures have been bandied about that I suspect people look at them and laugh. Pathetic.????

[Mavideol]

8 minutes ago, Pracha Duang said:

There’s Phuket airport this morning for anyone interested in a dose of reality. 

are you saying their (TAT) 15,000 daily arrival estimates are off again  555  ROFL

[khunpa]

[Bobydog]

5 hours ago, Hayduke said:

An honest assessment? Expect a new emergency decree criminalizing honesty.

 

 

With all this Anal guesswork try 100k MAYBE!!!!!

 

[Thunglom]

Instead of trying to trickle in a few people now, they should be planning on how to reconstruct the tourist industry for a time when it is safe to have millions of tourists again.

I really don't think the hai authorities have a handle on Covid and it's effects

It's here forever

It has to be managed long term

It isn't suddenly going to stop and go away

The tourist industry can't just suddenly restart where it left off.

Many businesses will need government help to restart - or the country will be taken over by big company cartels and monopolies.

150,000 ginst 40 million is simply not a significant number - it would be a joke if it didn't involve some many livelihoods.

[DLock]

3 hours ago, Percy P said:

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

They can come...what's stopping them?

[chang1]

53 minutes ago, jak2002003 said:

Domestic tourists are not allowed to travel to and from Phuket.

 

 

Is that because of foreign tourists? I thought that is a national policy that applies to all tourists. When we arrived in Phuket, Thais could go there much more easily than us. I think they only needed 1 vaccination. 

You can not compare pre sandbox to how it is now due to all the new restrictions brought in to kerb the Delta variant. 

The main reason the sandbox is failing is the excessive paperwork and testing. Then there is the problem of onward travel which is going to stop all the genuine tourists seeing rural Isaan. We managed to get there and have been given another 2 week home quarantine. Lazada is my friend so I can still get some jobs done.