AUKUS: A New Justification for Thailand’s Submarine Acquisition Plans?

[webfact]

 

The new trilateral security partnership could bolster the Thai navy’s long-standing submarine plans, but many obstacles remain.

 

By Tita Sanglee

 

Thailand’s procurement of three diesel-powered Yuan-class submarines from China has been subjected to constant delays and harsh criticism. The purchase of the first submarine was approved in 2017, but the fate of the other two submarines is up in the air. One key argument against Thailand’s submarine program is that the country is situated in a low-threat environment. The surprise formation of the AUKUS alliance, however, has dramatically heightened the risks of an arms race and nuclear proliferation, thereby providing the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) with a new justification to quickly get its hands on the long-overdue subs.

 

The AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which will see Australia equipped with a nuclear-powered submarine fleet, is widely seen as a move to deter China’s rapid maritime expansion. On the one hand, AUKUS is a demonstration of Washington’s unwavering security commitment and increased willingness to share defense technology with allies.

 

On the other hand, however, AUKUS could be very destabilizing. As argued by Barbara Yoxon from the University of Lancaster, the lack of meaningful diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China has fueled miscalculations, misinterpretations, and the security dilemma. Thus, instead of containing China, AUKUS is likely to spur China into strengthening its military capabilities further.

 

Full story: https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/aukus-a-new-justification-for-thailands-submarine-acquisition-plans/

 

-- © Copyright The Diplomat 2021-10-18

 

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[RichardColeman]

State of the band speaks volumes about their sub program,. Just missing a gazoo

[Gold Star]

As China might experience the pointy end of the torpedos as they get more cocky in the South China Sea, the submarines sold to Thailand now come equipped with 350mm tubes, for the 450mm torpedos.  

[zzaa09]

Keeping caution as to the possibilities of a sudden Lao attack from the sea.

[LarrySR]

The justification is, some bigwigs need a new vacation home in London or Hong Kong.

[smedly]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The new trilateral security partnership could bolster the Thai navy’s long-standing submarine plans, but many obstacles remain.

what it should be telling them is that the junk they are buying from China is all but useless and a total waste of money but then of course we all know why they are doing it  - if there's a budget they can fudge it

[Smoothsailing1]

Australia's submarines are 10-15 years from being deployed. It may as well be 1000 years away at the rate the world is changing. When these subs come on-stream Australia, the US, UK won't be a threat to China. The west is failing to address their internal social problems. They have gone into massive debt over the daft Covid lock downs.

 

Buying a few subs is a cheap price to pay to stay on the right side of China,.

[Kiwithl]

"...the fate of the other two submarines is up in the air."

 

Get those ones I'd say.

[yesdavy]

Wonder if the RTN Band with one of each instrument is to music,

as EGAT linemen are to black spaghetti power lines?

[herfiehandbag]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

State of the band speaks volumes about their sub program,. Just missing a gazoo

Does look like the "camp tramps" have fallen out of the NAAFI at closing time doesn't it!

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, LarrySR said:

The justification is, some bigwigs need a new vacation home in London or Hong Kong.

The justification of thousands of Generals & Commanders comfortable employment.

[Artben]

AUKUS is actually a great reason NOT to have any submarines.  An alignment with either side automatically makes Thailand an enemy of one of the few "big dogs" left in the world.  Suggest the Thai's take a lesson from the Swiss.  

[herfiehandbag]

5 minutes ago, Artben said:

AUKUS is actually a great reason NOT to have any submarines.  An alignment with either side automatically makes Thailand an enemy of one of the few "big dogs" left in the world.  Suggest the Thai's take a lesson from the Swiss.  

Don't the Swiss have any submarines?

 

How do they manage to keep Lichtenstein in awe of them?

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

State of the band speaks volumes about their sub program,. Just missing a gazoo

Reminds me of Putin visiting Saudi Arabia a year or 2 ago. I watched the video of Putin & the band as the musicians' musicianship collapsed in a screaming heap and the Russian nat anthem was completely unrecognizable in a fury of noise.

[herfiehandbag]

AUKUS is irrelevant to the whole Thai Submarine programme. 

 

The Gulf of Thailand is really just a shallow backwater which doesn't really lead anywhere. Having a (very) slack handful of obsolete submarines easily bottled up in it, will mean nothing in strategic terms.

[Orinoco]

36 minutes ago, Artben said:

AUKUS is actually a great reason NOT to have any submarines.  An alignment with either side automatically makes Thailand an enemy of one of the few "big dogs" left in the world.  Suggest the Thai's take a lesson from the Swiss.  

Who wants Thailand and for what.

Ok,  could just turn it into a brothel for the rest of the world.

Oops already done. !!!!!!!!!!!! LOL.

TIT.

[brianthainess]

The fate of two submarines is up in the air,   well the props will be up in the air if they dive in the Gulf of Thailand, maybe they could select reverse and fly them up.

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling video has been removed.

[elcaro]

3 hours ago, Gold Star said:

As China might experience the pointy end of the torpedos as they get more cocky in the South China Sea, the submarines sold to Thailand now come equipped with 350mm tubes, for the 450mm torpedos.  

Dont want to stop your parade, but you can be sure thailand will be joining China. 

[realfunster]

1 hour ago, mfd101 said:

Reminds me of Putin visiting Saudi Arabia a year or 2 ago. I watched the video of Putin & the band as the musicians' musicianship collapsed in a screaming heap and the Russian nat anthem was completely unrecognizable in a fury of noise.

This gave me good chuckle, complete butchering of US and Russian anthems 

 

 

[Harsh Jones]

4 hours ago, Gold Star said:

As China might experience the pointy end of the torpedos as they get more cocky in the South China Sea, the submarines sold to Thailand now come equipped with 350mm tubes, for the 450mm torpedos.  

Yeah yeah. If China made a move for Taiwan it would be Crimea 2.0. They'd have it wrapped up in a couple days

[Harsh Jones]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

what it should be telling them is that the junk they are buying from China is all but useless and a total waste of money but then of course we all know why they are doing it  - if there's a budget they can fudge it

They are actually decent subs. Because they are direct copies of the tried and tested Russian Kilo class.

[mtls2005]

The Gulf of Thailand is situated at the western tip of South China Sea. The average depth of the gulf is about 45 m while the deepest part in the central channel is about 80 m. The water column is stratified into 2 layers with distinctive water masses.

 

http://www.geo.sc.chula.ac.th/BEST/volume7/number1/BEST_7_1_004_pongdanai.pdf

 

 

Run Silent, run not so deep.

 

 

I assume that with one sub, it would patrol the Gulf rather than the Andaman Sea?

[simon43]

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Don't the Swiss have any submarines?

 

How do they manage to keep Lichtenstein in awe of them?

Top-secret.... cuckoo clocks.....!!

[robertson468]

32 minutes ago, Harsh Jones said:

They are actually decent subs. Because they are direct copies of the tried and tested Russian Kilo class.

But you can guarantee that they would have a detection mechanism so that the Chinese would be able to track them wherever they go, or the crew would be issued with Huawai Mobie Phones.  It's unbelieveable how naive the Thai Government are, but there again, many of them have Chinese decendancy, so USA, UK and Europe need to beware of any partnership with Thailand.

[John Drake]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

On the other hand, however, AUKUS could be very destabilizing. As argued by Barbara Yoxon from the University of Lancaster,

Very thin research record. Most of it consists of a few articles with multiple authors.

[Kevin Taylor]

4 hours ago, Smoothsailing1 said:

Australia's submarines are 10-15 years from being deployed. It may as well be 1000 years away at the rate the world is changing. When these subs come on-stream Australia, the US, UK won't be a threat to China. The west is failing to address their internal social problems. They have gone into massive debt over the daft Covid lock downs.

 

Buying a few subs is a cheap price to pay to stay on the right side of China,.

Actually I heard Australia were planning on building them themselves. That could be fun, with the insane woke culture they've got going on their they will no doubt select the engineers based on inclusion of race and gender.

Go for it I say let's just see how over budget and time it is. They'll probably insist on painting it in appropriate lbgq colours.

[John Drake]

4 hours ago, Smoothsailing1 said:

Australia's submarines are 10-15 years from being deployed. It may as well be 1000 years away at the rate the world is changing. When these subs come on-stream Australia, the US, UK won't be a threat to China. The west is failing to address their internal social problems. They have gone into massive debt over the daft Covid lock downs.

 

Buying a few subs is a cheap price to pay to stay on the right side of China,.

There is something to this. Maybe more. Because it's not just submarines but all the other military hardware being bought from China. Thailand is all but part of a Chinese defense pact. If real hostilities break out, Thailand isn't going to be able to sit on the fence. They're putting a target on their back. How is the other side to differentiate between Chinese submarines and Chinese submarines supposedly manned by Thais? They can't. They won't. Those subs will be vaporized.

[mfd101]

4 minutes ago, John Drake said:

There is something to this. Maybe more. Because it's not just submarines but all the other military hardware being bought from China. Thailand is all but part of a Chinese defense pact. If real hostilities break out, Thailand isn't going to be able to sit on the fence. They're putting a target on their back. How is the other side to differentiate between Chinese submarines and Chinese submarines supposedly manned by Thais? They can't. They won't. Those subs will be vaporized.

Don't worry, the Thai subs will never go anywhere except flag-flying VIP visits around the Gulf, never below the waves.

[DaveSamutP]

4 hours ago, Smoothsailing1 said:

Australia's submarines are 10-15 years from being deployed. It may as well be 1000 years away at the rate the world is changing. When these subs come on-stream Australia, the US, UK won't be a threat to China. The west is failing to address their internal social problems. They have gone into massive debt over the daft Covid lock downs.

 

Buying a few subs is a cheap price to pay to stay on the right side of China,.

If only the world's most powerful military had thought of this... ????

 

They will be basing a range of subs in Australia for the interim and training the sailors there until the new subs are built. Do not get to the top of the pile by being daft.