SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[blackprince]

Given that the experts have not had time to decide about Omicron, unsurprising given the still developing data,  I have no idea why anyone could imagine that a Thai  Visa AN poll could add clarity.

Edited December 10, 2021 by blackprince

[Virt]

I hope Omicron is less lethal compared to delta.

 

Just received news that someone i known for many years died of corona after being on ventilator several weeks.

So it was not the omicon that killed him, but still the darn virus ???? 

 

He is the first person i personally know that has died from Corona, and it suddenly moves a lot closer. 

[partington]

19 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

 

15 years ago, globally scientists were fond of stating there was no evidence, at all, that there were planets in any other solar system besides ours.

Of course they failed to point out that the technology to find them did not yet exist.

A few years later several methods were created, and now there's thousands of them, everywhere.

None of this is true either factually or in its implications.

 

Fifteen years ago - 2006 - well over 100 planets outside our solar system had already been discovered- the first extra-solar  planet was detected in 1992.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_before_2000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_between_2000–2009

 

The lack of evidence for extra-solar planets before then did not lead to any general claim or belief that they did not exist, merely the absolutely factual statement that no evidence had yet been found for their existence.   Most people thought that their existence was extremely likely, with Isaac Newton being the most famous proponent of the hypothesis  that other fixed stars would have orbiting planets, in 1687.

 

In any case there is no applicable analogy between your incorrect statements about the discovery of extra-solar planets and the well attested observational epidemiological evidence over centuries that there is no consistent evolution of viral or any other pathogens towards lower virulence. The Black death killed millions in cycles century after century after century, only ameliorating when each cycle had killed so many people that only the immune or recovered were left.  Viral smallpox has afflicted mankind since 10,000BC, and despite near eradication by vaccination, breakthrough outbreaks are still feared as the disease remains deadly.

 

Rather than I having to explain to you why the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919 eventually burnt out, you have to explain to me why you think evolution towards a less deadly variant, rather than herd immunity arising from its infection and killing of such a large proportion of the world's population that its infection cycles were terminated, is the most likely explanation.

 

And , even if the Spanish Flu virus did evolve towards lower virulence, you have to explain why you think that the attributes of this single pathogen must be applicable to all disease pathogens including SARS-Cov2, despite evidence for contrary behaviour existing for many other pathogens throughout history.

[Thunglom]

3 hours ago, Scott said:

It's understandable to try and compare one pandemic to another but comparisons have to be done very carefully.  The influenza virus is a completely different family of viruses.  Although there are similarities in how it is transmitted and the symptoms, that's where it is ends.  

The level of mutations in influenza is very high and recombination with other viruses is common.  That is why there are so many strains and it is hard to know what will strike from year to year. 

 

Influenza is very much seasonal.  It is primarily a winter disease (in tropical countries like Thailand, it is common in the rainy season).  It strikes the Southern Hemisphere at the opposite time as the Northern Hemisphere.  
 

In spite of what it might look like, coronaviruses have a low mutation rate.   The virus contains an 'error editor' that usually throws out replications that are not the same as the original.  Of course, this error editor function doesn't work 100% and errors do get out and mutations do occur, but the rate is low. 

 

Although the symptoms are similar, they are not the same.   Influenza is a respiratory virus and it affects the nose, throat and lungs.  Covid is a vascular disease and it affects the respiratory system but is able to do major damage to the heart and kidneys as well as other systems.   The stomach 'flu' is not a flu and shouldn't be confused with the real flu.  Stomach flu is caused by the noravirus which is, again, a different class of viruses. 

you realise I'm not comparing....someone else was.

 

[Oblomov]

On 12/6/2021 at 2:52 PM, Trvlr55 said:

I think that the proof, so far for #3, is actually here.

 

US Gvt officials, and officials from other countries, excluding South Africa, when asked specifically about the severity of this variant, and if people are hospitalized, change the subject. This indicates that the reports out of South Africa, is correct. i.e. no hospitalizations, nobody really sick.

 

Viruses like anything else, want to survive.

Killing your host, is not good for long term survival.

Mutations, over time, get weaker and weaker, and more easily transmittable. "excluding sci-fi movies of course!"

Over time, the weaker, more transmittable, simply out-compete the earlier more dangerous variants.

 

This is how the world eventually climbed out of the 1917 pandemic.

This is how this one will end.

 

There is no technology currently to prevent the spread of covid.

Lock-downs and other measures, do little if anything to prevent the spread.

Vaccines help, but there will never be a 100 percent  vaccine, that every human can that that is also without risk to every human on the planet.

 

Many reports today saying that this most likely originated somewhere else, not South Africa. They were however the first one to report it, so governments everywhere taking the same knee-jerk reactions they have in the past 2 years. However there is not proof, than any of these lock-downs have ever worked so far. It's now been found in a traveler coming into Thailand, as well as found in many countries in the past 2 days.

38 counties 2 days ago, this has probably doubled as of today. Within the next week, will have been found everywhere, if counties take the effort to look.

 

There's no point in closing the barn door, once all the horses have left the barn.

 

Do we really want to keep the entire world shutdown, for symptoms that are less than the common cold.

 

the flu kills a whole lot of people every year, world wide.

pneumonia kills a whole lot of people every year, world wide.

lookup the numbers, you will be shocked!

 

The PM stated a month ago, Covid is not going to be completely defeated, ever!

We need to start planning to live with it.

Now is not the time to abandon this idea, and go back to the failed policies of the past.

 

Well written and very sensible - we won't know yet but if exposure to this (seemingly) milder variant leads to a natural immunity (even partial), then it could offer a natural step towards a more significant herd immunity, along with vaccines and therapies.

 

Personal health and fitness and being the proper weight would negate the worst of many of the symptoms, so more needs to be done to encourage that. 

 

As you say, the higher numbers of cases are found simply in  the nations that do the most testing and new variants are found by those that sequence larger samples.

 

 

[Danderman123]

8 hours ago, Oblomov said:

Well written and very sensible - we won't know yet but if exposure to this (seemingly) milder variant leads to a natural immunity (even partial), then it could offer a natural step towards a more significant herd immunity, along with vaccines and therapies.

 

Personal health and fitness and being the proper weight would negate the worst of many of the symptoms, so more needs to be done to encourage that. 

 

As you say, the higher numbers of cases are found simply in  the nations that do the most testing and new variants are found by those that sequence larger samples.

 

 

Omicron seems to be a double edged sword, milder but more infectious.  So, if the case fatality rate is 1%, but a billion get infected, that's 10 million dead from Omicron. 

 

[Danderman123]

10 hours ago, partington said:

None of this is true either factually or in its implications.

 

Fifteen years ago - 2006 - well over 100 planets outside our solar system had already been discovered- the first extra-solar  planet was detected in 1992.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_before_2000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_between_2000–2009

 

The lack of evidence for extra-solar planets before then did not lead to any general claim or belief that they did not exist, merely the absolutely factual statement that no evidence had yet been found for their existence.   Most people thought that their existence was extremely likely, with Isaac Newton being the most famous proponent of the hypothesis  that other fixed stars would have orbiting planets, in 1687.

 

In any case there is no applicable analogy between your incorrect statements about the discovery of extra-solar planets and the well attested observational epidemiological evidence over centuries that there is no consistent evolution of viral or any other pathogens towards lower virulence. The Black death killed millions in cycles century after century after century, only ameliorating when each cycle had killed so many people that only the immune or recovered were left.  Viral smallpox has afflicted mankind since 10,000BC, and despite near eradication by vaccination, breakthrough outbreaks are still feared as the disease remains deadly.

 

Rather than I having to explain to you why the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919 eventually burnt out, you have to explain to me why you think evolution towards a less deadly variant, rather than herd immunity arising from its infection and killing of such a large proportion of the world's population that its infection cycles were terminated, is the most likely explanation.

 

And , even if the Spanish Flu virus did evolve towards lower virulence, you have to explain why you think that the attributes of this single pathogen must be applicable to all disease pathogens including SARS-Cov2, despite evidence for contrary behaviour existing for many other pathogens throughout history.

The one factor nobody ever talks about is the possibility that some are naturally immune to a certain virus, without ever having been infected. I suspect that there is a fairly large fraction of people who cannot be infected by certain viruses. 

[Trvlr55]

14 hours ago, Thunglom said:

I thought I said...largely hers immunity

 Slightly altered versions of the 1918 flu reemerged in the winters of 1919-1920 and 1920-1921, but they were far less deadly and nearly indistinguishable from the seasonal flu. The 1918 flu definitely lost its real virulence by the early 1920s, but this is not guaranteed process of variation - it could have got worse - and of course there have n=been other flu epidemics that may or may not be associated - so you can argue it is still here. 

it is estimated that 50,000,000 were killed as a result and 500 million infected.

 

yes, and it's much less deadly that it was in 1917... so you finally agree with me. Well done! 

 

I never said Covid will get weak and completely die out. Covid is endemic in the world and will never go away, the only hope is it gets weaker, "just like the 1917 Flu" and people can still get sick, but not nearly as deadly.

[Trvlr55]

11 hours ago, partington said:

None of this is true either factually or in its implications.

 

Fifteen years ago - 2006 - well over 100 planets outside our solar system had already been discovered- the first extra-solar  planet was detected in 1992.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_before_2000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exoplanets_discovered_between_2000–2009

 

The lack of evidence for extra-solar planets before then did not lead to any general claim or belief that they did not exist, merely the absolutely factual statement that no evidence had yet been found for their existence.   Most people thought that their existence was extremely likely, with Isaac Newton being the most famous proponent of the hypothesis  that other fixed stars would have orbiting planets, in 1687.

 

In any case there is no applicable analogy between your incorrect statements about the discovery of extra-solar planets and the well attested observational epidemiological evidence over centuries that there is no consistent evolution of viral or any other pathogens towards lower virulence. The Black death killed millions in cycles century after century after century, only ameliorating when each cycle had killed so many people that only the immune or recovered were left.  Viral smallpox has afflicted mankind since 10,000BC, and despite near eradication by vaccination, breakthrough outbreaks are still feared as the disease remains deadly.

 

Rather than I having to explain to you why the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1919 eventually burnt out, you have to explain to me why you think evolution towards a less deadly variant, rather than herd immunity arising from its infection and killing of such a large proportion of the world's population that its infection cycles were terminated, is the most likely explanation.

 

And , even if the Spanish Flu virus did evolve towards lower virulence, you have to explain why you think that the attributes of this single pathogen must be applicable to all disease pathogens including SARS-Cov2, despite evidence for contrary behaviour existing for many other pathogens throughout history.

sure it did, maybe it was some years before this, but there was a lot of TV scientific series where it was stated that it was very uncertain that there were planets anywhere else, because they had not been found to date.  FYI anyone can update a WIKI

[Thunglom]

8 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The one factor nobody ever talks about is the possibility that some are naturally immune to a certain virus, without ever having been infected. I suspect that there is a fairly large fraction of people who cannot be infected by certain viruses. 

extremely unlike - take the aids virus - the numbers of "immune" remain unproven but you could count them on one hand.

[Thunglom]

7 hours ago, Trvlr55 said:

sure it did, maybe it was some years before this, but there was a lot of TV scientific series where it was stated that it was very uncertain that there were planets anywhere else, because they had not been found to date.  FYI anyone can update a WIKI

I think that says more about your understanding of scientific thought than anything else!

[partington]

2 hours ago, Thunglom said:

extremely unlike - take the aids virus - the numbers of "immune" remain unproven but you could count them on one hand.

I agree that the number of "naturally immune" people is likely to be so small it would have no significant effect on the progress of the disease.  

 

As far as I know (I'm not an immunologist) there are are only a handful of possibilities for natural immunity. One of these is pre- exposure to a different pathogen that has sufficient similarity to SARS-CoV-2 for the antibodies generated by the first pathogen to cross-react with SARS-Cov-2.

 

Another is some kind of mutation in a person that prevents the virus from infection, replication or some other essential function.

 

There is an example of this in natural immunity to AIDS, which does exist and has been proven. AIDS infects cells by binding to a cell surface receptor called  CD4, but usually requires a co-receptor, CCR5, for successful entry to cells. Some people have a mutation in CCR5 which changes its shape enough so that the AIDS virus cannot bind to it any more, and they remain immune.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8898752/

 

Theoretically mutations could exist in the human population in the ACE2 receptor, which is the protein SARS-Cov-2 binds to in order to infect cells, and this theoretically could be protective. (However these people potentially could be less healthy as a result of the mutation itself.)

Edited December 11, 2021 by partington

[Thunglom]

34 minutes ago, partington said:

I agree that the number of "naturally immune" people is likely to be so small it would have no significant effect on the progress of the disease.  

 

As far as I know (I'm not an immunologist) there are are only a handful of possibilities for natural immunity. One of these is pre- exposure to a different pathogen that has sufficient similarity to SARS-CoV-2 for the antibodies generated by the first pathogen to cross-react with SARS-Cov-2.

 

Another is some kind of mutation in a person that prevents the virus from infection, replication or some other essential function.

 

There is an example of this in natural immunity to AIDS, which does exist and has been proven. AIDS infects cells by binding to a cell surface receptor called  CD4, but usually requires a co-receptor, CCR5, for successful entry to cells. Some people have a mutation in CCR5 which changes its shape enough so that the AIDS virus cannot bind to it any more, and they remain immune.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8898752/

 

Theoretically mutations could exist in the human population in the ACE2 receptor, which is the protein SARS-Cov-2 binds to in order to infect cells, and this theoretically could be protective. (However these people potentially could be less healthy as a result of the mutation itself.)

Agreed. but not sure that any of that was needed.

[Trvlr55]

2 hours ago, Thunglom said:

I think that says more about your understanding of scientific thought than anything else!

says much more about your understanding. These were ALL hosted by world class scientists on the subject... not cartoons or sci-fi

[Thunglom]

I was really hoping to come to Thailand in April.  Travelling from UK - but omicron looks like putting an end that. In Europe there are major cries for more restrictions to be re-introduced.

If Thailand thinks they are going to avoid Omicron, they are living in a fools paradise - and if they don't raise restrictions soon they will just end up on everyone's red list again.

there is no way I will travel with quarantine rules at either end hanging over me like a sword of Damocles.

[Thunglom]

20 minutes ago, ViajeroLA said:

It definitely "may have a major effect on Thailand." if our government will want it to. What I don't get is what's so scary about it besides maybe the name LOL. From what I've read it's not even a flu-like virus, it has the same effects as the common cold <deleted>. Me wonder how we survived that awful sickness before without face diapers and other BS before )))

You don't know what flu is. You don't understand how transmissible it is and THEY don't know how severe it is - they do know of all the variants since Delta as number 15,  that it was immediately worth picking out for special treatment.

[ViajeroLA]

1 minute ago, Thunglom said:

You don't know what flu is. You don't understand how transmissible it is and THEY don't know how severe it is - they do know of all the variants since Delta as number 15,  that it was immediately worth picking out for special treatment.

Yeah I'm not a virologist. It may be transmittable AF "number 15" or whatever, but if it's harmless like a common cold, why should ppl be so scared about it? Say bacterias live everywhere, you can't live without them while some of em are def a threat. Same goes for any animal, person, etc, It doesn't mean we should be scared of anybody "just because they may on may not be harmful". I understand that maskers think differently)) but we lived without them for a while and it wasn't bad at all 555

[Chelseafan]

On 12/5/2021 at 3:10 AM, Andyfez said:

How about a fourth option?;

I don't know enough to make an informed vote

I think you will find that most posters are much more informed than scientists and virologists ????

 

[Chelseafan]

1 hour ago, Thunglom said:

I was really hoping to come to Thailand in April.  Travelling from UK - but omicron looks like putting an end that. In Europe there are major cries for more restrictions to be re-introduced.

If Thailand thinks they are going to avoid Omicron, they are living in a fools paradise - and if they don't raise restrictions soon they will just end up on everyone's red list again.

there is no way I will travel with quarantine rules at either end hanging over me like a sword of Damocles.

 

I'm hoping to travel next week before potential lockdowns happen but can see the Thai/UK authorties taking further action and despite being triple jabbed I'm worried the pre-departure PCR test is going to come up positive or worse still I test positive on arrival but hey ho, life has to go on.

 

As for Omicron, it's already in Thailand and there's no stopping it. Worringly, it appears that being double jabbed doesn't have much effect, only by adding the booster do you have up to 75% chance of zero/limited symptoms. Given that Thailand is nowhere near getting most people double jabbed let alone the third booster, this could be bad news.

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Chelseafan

[Thunglom]

1 hour ago, ViajeroLA said:

Say bacterias live everywhere

OK - now you are just spouting utter rubbish - Covid is a VIRUS - symptoms of Colds are not the same as flu are not the same as Covid. I personally know triple vexed people who have had "mild" covid and were bedridden of days.....you don't seem to have handle on the b=very basics.

[Thunglom]

57 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

 

I'm hoping to travel next week before potential lockdowns happen but can see the Thai/UK authorties taking further action and despite being triple jabbed I'm worried the pre-departure PCR test is going to come up positive or worse still I test positive on arrival but hey ho, life has to go on.

 

As for Omicron, it's already in Thailand and there's no stopping it. Worringly, it appears that being double jabbed doesn't have much effect, only by adding the booster do you have up to 75% chance of zero/limited symptoms. Given that Thailand is nowhere near getting most people double jabbed let alone the third booster, this could be bad news.

 

I'm triple jabbed but with that toy appear to have only 75% protection against infection. I think the biggest problem will be a sudden clampdown in Thailand after the high season and just as  we I left Thailand you'll get a few hours notice before final flights and end up having to pay for quarantine in a Heathrow hotel. In UK they are forecasting infection rates higher than last winter 50k upwards per day.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Thunglom

[Chelseafan]

1 hour ago, Thunglom said:

I'm triple jabbed but with that toy appear to have only 75% protection against infection. I think the biggest problem will be a sudden clampdown in Thailand after the high season and just as  we I left Thailand you'll get a few hours notice before final flights and end up having to pay for quarantine in a Heathrow hotel. In UK they are forecasting infection rates higher than last winter 50k upwards per day.

I know but haven't seen my little one for over 6 months and time marches on. If that happens then I will have to deal with it

 

 

[sezze]

19 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The one factor nobody ever talks about is the possibility that some are naturally immune to a certain virus, without ever having been infected. I suspect that there is a fairly large fraction of people who cannot be infected by certain viruses. 

There is NO virus which does kill all of us . Even the 100% deadly rabies , does have a confirmed survivor ( a girl ) . There will always be people who are immune for a certain type of virus .

11 hours ago, Thunglom said:

extremely unlike - take the aids virus - the numbers of "immune" remain unproven but you could count them on one hand.

The number is suspected to be quite large , much more then a handful , estimate is around 10% of population . And most of them are Caucasian , because they were also immune for bubonic plague . You can check the data on various sources ...

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, sezze said:

There is NO virus which does kill all of us . Even the 100% deadly rabies , does have a confirmed survivor ( a girl ) . There will always be people who are immune for a certain type of virus .

.

The girl who survived was put into an induced coma and given very intensive care. So not a case of natural immunity.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/jeanna-giese-rabies-survivor/

[Thunglom]

27 minutes ago, sezze said:

There is NO virus which does kill all of us . Even the 100% deadly rabies , does have a confirmed survivor ( a girl ) . There will always be people who are immune for a certain type of virus .

The number is suspected to be quite large , much more then a handful , estimate is around 10% of population . And most of them are Caucasian , because they were also immune for bubonic plague . You can check the data on various sources ...

totally irrelevant to this thread

[placeholder]

17 minutes ago, sezze said:

The number is suspected to be quite large , much more then a handful , estimate is around 10% of population . And most of them are Caucasian , because they were also immune for bubonic plague . You can check the data on various sources ...

Your basic point that there is innate resistance to HIV in some people is correct.

But it's 10% of Europeans. Particularly those in northern Scandinavia and Russia.. There are lots of Caucasians found elsewhere including the Middle East, Central Asia, and India. More than there are in Europe and elsewhere..

Also, according to the scientists who investigated this, it seems that the European plagues were not bubonic plague but hemorrhagic fever. Which makes sense since hemorrhagic fever is a viral disease whereas the bubonic plague is bacterial on origin.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050325234239.htm

[partington]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Your basic point that there is innate resistance to HIV in some people is correct.

But it's 10% of Europeans. Particularly those in northern Scandinavia and Russia.. There are lots of Caucasians found elsewhere including the Middle East, Central Asia, and India. More than there are in Europe and elsewhere..

Also, according to the scientists who investigated this, it seems that the European plagues were not bubonic plague but hemorrhagic fever. Which makes sense since hemorrhagic fever is a viral disease whereas the bubonic plague is bacterial on origin.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050325234239.htm

Good point, but it's not 10% of Europeans who are resistant to HIV, because this is the frequency of mutations in one of the two CCR5 genes each person has (heterozygous).  

Protection against HIV is only significantly observed when both CCR5 genes in an individual have this mutation (homozygous).

 

The frequency of this condition in these European populations is about 1%.

Edited December 12, 2021 by partington

[Danderman123]

Nobody has mentioned that new infections in South Africa have flattened.

[TorquayFan]

Thanks Dander. I hadn't seen that ! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10299773/South-Africas-Omicron-outbreak-slows-figures-suggest.html

 

As drawn from only a few days figures but let's hope that proves to be a trend.

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

On 12/5/2021 at 2:16 PM, Jeffr2 said:

ICUs are filling up in SA.  As we know, deaths lag by a few weeks.  But not looking good.

SA = South America? San Antonio? other? 

 

I think the real and ultimate danger is that the more time this virus has, the more often this virus mutates, the more chance that it gets really dangerous.