Oversupply of condos in BKK yet ridiculous prices

[KarenBravo]

2 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

I have also been told they view second-hand houses like the West view second-hand cars......used and seriously devalued as a consequence.

Thais prefer new houses and condos because they know that they will be ghost-free.

[Airalee]

5 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The apartments we have looked at are generally so badly furnished with ugly, mismatched, and inappropriate pieces that I would only consider renting them if I were planning a suicide.

LOL!  
 

And the wallpaper in some of those units.  What were they thinking?

[cmarshall]

3 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

Thais prefer new houses and condos because they know that they will be ghost-free.

Also, because they can be pretty sure the build quality is poor and they haven't been maintained.

[Barnabe]

9 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

When prices for condos go up while rents for the same units do not, it's a bubble.  Reminds me of the US housing market from 2000 to 2007.

Note that this is my unscientific observation of the market in the last 3 years or so. I haven’t been able to find a graph as good as that for rent price evolution.

But based on my observations at least at the price points I was looking at, rents have not increased and even fell slightly in some cases in the last 3 years.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Barnabe

[YT3k72Em]

12 hours ago, Barnabe said:

https://www.hipflat.com/projects/the-xxxix-by-sansiri-fgpkzx

 

 

I can’t figure it out either.

From the description.

This project consist of 178 units.

For sale 252 units ????

[86Tiger]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

 

.....prices could collapse in six months time if they see international travel is going to be severely limited.......

 

 

Just be patient for 6 - 8 months.

 

Not only Thailand, but all over the world there is about to be a realization that economies can not be closed for 6 - 12 months and there be no repercussions.  It is going to be a blood bath not only in real estate but banking, tax revenues as well as pretty much all areas of service industry.

 

Batten down the hatches and prepare to wait out the storm.

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, YT3k72Em said:

From the description.

This project consist of 178 units.

For sale 252 units ????

The same units are being advertised by multiple agents

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 hours ago, Barnabe said:

1) just because it hasn’t happened in 18 years doesn’t mean it won’t happen, these things take time to build up, and then need a spark to explode. I wasn’t around, but judging from other people’s tales it definitely happened in 1997.

The Asian financial crisis started mid 1997, but real estate prices bottomed out late 2001.

The exodus of foreigners, who take up the bulk of rentals above 20k is just starting and we will probably see a similar delayed drop in prices.

That said, thanks to the Internet the real-estate market is a lot more transparent now than it was in 1997, so we might see a quicker correction this time around.

2021 should be interesting. 

[hansnl]

6 hours ago, Airalee said:

Supposedly, there are 1,580,000 millionaires in China as of 2019.  Usually, when net worth is calculated, it includes their real estate holdings so much of that “wealth” is illiquid.  I would guess that now, due to Covid-19, there are even fewer millionaires and I would think it’s fair to assume that even those don’t have the cash to scoop up all the vacant condos.  Even if they did, why were there still 100,000+ unsold new condos before Covid 19?

 

400 million potential buyers?  I don’t think so.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/702759/china-number-of-millionaires/

I am afraid you don't really know how the Chinese business groups operate.

[madmen]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's why Chiang Mai is so much better, you can get a 300 sqm house with pool. Land prices are sensible. You still have good massage, great malls, great restaurants, driving is better and less crowded. Okay, for 2 to 3 months terrible air like in Bangkok, but rest of the year is fine.

 

I definitely wouldn't buy a shoe-box in Bangkok or put down 45 million Baht for a normal apartment in a city that's set to drown. Sure the market will go on for a long time, but places like Chiang Mai are still developing and you get something for your money.

Comparing Bangkok to Chiang Mai

What next new York to Kansas? 

 

In what way is CM " Developing",? Lots of new factories and assembly plants? Thais from all over the country flocking there for the work? 

 

The place is dead as a do do

[sawadee1947]

When I read this article's header I made a mistake.... 

I understood they are talking about Condoms.......what would make sense as well. ????????????

[ballpoint]

3 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

When I read this article's header I made a mistake.... 

I understood they are talking about Condoms.......what would make sense as well. ????????????

Looking at renting a used one?

[BigStar]

16 hours ago, dddave said:

In Thailand, even Bangkok, carrying costs for vacant condo units are almost nil.  Why would an owner/developer significantly drop the price of a unit in response to what is probably a relatively short term economic downturn.  Successful property investors are usually in it for the long haul and at some point, the market will heat up again.

For the entirety of my 18+ years here, skeptics have annually predicted the total collapse of the local condo market(overbuilt, shoddy construction, poor design, over-priced) and for the better part of those 18 years, it has chugged right along. 

Yup. No change. We'll see if this time is any different.

[4MyEgo]

18 hours ago, Barnabe said:

Are there that many people with so much money that they don't care if they are being totally ripped off

I hear a lot of money laundered goes into condos in BKK, suffice to say, if they sit empty they don't care.

 

Be patient, it's coming and it will arrive, just keep renting.......until as such a time you find something in your price range, size and location, just remember, oler buildings usually have higher quarterly levies.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Hipflat is not a good indicator of current prices as it often list lots of very outdated units that are still floating around at various real-estate sites.

Could be interesting if someone selected a few buildings, took a screen shot of all the units listed at hipflat, waited 6 months and then extracted only the new listings.

In fact, I will select 3 buildings and to exactly that. 

 

 

[Airalee]

1 hour ago, hansnl said:

I am afraid you don't really know how the Chinese business groups operate.

Nope...I don’t.  But I’m sure they’ve been around longer than all the unsold condos that they haven’t snapped up over the last few years.  What are they waiting for?  

[ExpatOilWorker]

21 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Nope...I don’t.  But I’m sure they’ve been around longer than all the unsold condos that they haven’t snapped up over the last few years.  What are they waiting for?  

The Chinese can only shop for $50k a year overseas. Xi, the virus and capital control will keep them at home.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capital-outflow-controls-have-gone-extreme-former

[Stevemercer]

Well it's like the strong Baht, continuing to defy expectations. Thailand is truly the lucky country (provided you have money).

[Swimfan]

2 hours ago, madmen said:

Comparing Bangkok to Chiang Mai

What next new York to Kansas? 

 

In what way is CM " Developing",? Lots of new factories and assembly plants? Thais from all over the country flocking there for the work? 

 

The place is dead as a do do

Couldn't have put it better myself.

CM is ok for a couple of days. But to live ? 

Its one of the few places in Thailand i have never returned to.

[Airalee]

10 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The Chinese can only shop for $50k a year overseas. Xi, the virus and capital control will keep them at home.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capital-outflow-controls-have-gone-extreme-former

I’ve heard about that capital control.  Is that recent?  I know that at Sky Walk condo in Phra Khanong there are quite a few Chinese owned condos.  It was built in 2013.  The developer is still trying to sell “new” units.  If they (the Chinese) didn’t buy them all at that time...and didn’t buy them for the 7 years up until COVID-19....well...I guess they’re not as much competition as some people here want to lead us to believe.  Even in the building I just bought in (new construction not yet completed), there are Chinese nationals trying to sell their “down payment” at a loss.  Japanese too.

 

”We lose money on every sale, but we make it up in volume”

-unknown

 

[JimmyJ]

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

I hear a lot of money laundered goes into condos in BKK, suffice to say, if they sit empty they don't care.

 

Why wouldn't they care?

[spidermike007]

Yeah, I agree. $1.5 million for 1,800 sf in a low rise bldg in a not special area? That is nuts. Insanity. Makes no sense on any level, or by any standard. 

 

If those numbers are correct, that is around $900 per sf. You can get condos in very nice, new buildings off Sukhumvit on the 40th floor for less than that. 

 

You could buy a mansion in Spain, in the hills, with a view of the sea, on several hectares of land for that. 

[wolf81]

6 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

Just be patient for 6 - 8 months.

 

Not only Thailand, but all over the world there is about to be a realization that economies can not be closed for 6 - 12 months and there be no repercussions.  It is going to be a blood bath not only in real estate but banking, tax revenues as well as pretty much all areas of service industry.

 

Batten down the hatches and prepare to wait out the storm.

I agree with this. Worldwide we're in for a huge crash. There's a huge banking bubble in Europe at the moment and it will pop with Deutsche Bank next year. Deutsche Bank and many Southern European bank will need to be rescued by the European tax payers (hence the recent agreement on the covid bonds). At the same time, due to bad economy from all the covid measures, many people will loose their jobs. Even if Thais won't sell condos cheaply, I'm sure many foreigners might want to sell at that point. 

 

Working Europeans (especially in Northern Europe) will face increased tax rates. Pensioners will likely see their pensions reduced (again). The welfare system will be reduced, etc, etc...

[Barnabe]

We'll see what happens but playing Devil's advocate here, no-one knows that the next few months bring. This COVID crisis has been completely mismanaged by "experts" since the beginning, especially in the West, and it might go away as quickly as it came. In a few years this might be a blip in the radar - like other posters said, people have been predicting a crash for ages, never happened and prices keep rising.

 

Whatever happens, these very interesting times indeed.

 

One final remark about the money laundering - I don't believe that's a big chunk of the market these days, any money launderer worth their salt knows that there is a condo glut and they sit for years before a sale is made. Maybe a few years ago it made sense, there must be better ways to launder money now.

 

The lion's share of the foreign market must be just good old speculation by rich people from other countries who want to try their luck or have too much money and nowhere to put it.

[Pravda]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The Chinese can only shop for $50k a year overseas. Xi, the virus and capital control will keep them at home.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capital-outflow-controls-have-gone-extreme-former

 

Don't make me laugh. There are ways around that. 

 

As for property prices the repeat of 1997 won't happen. The difference between now and then is globalization. It seems like every foreign peasant nowadays has $500k in assets. Heck, even your Isaan farmers are land rich and money poor. 

 

 

[karunasup]

any recommendations for rental units...am looking for 2 bdr, 80-90 sm, older building is fine, from Lat Prao to Onut BTS .

Budget 17-19K. will sign 2  yr lease. thanks

[NorthernRyland]

9 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Traditionally, ordinary Thais did not especially value houses, as opposed to land, for instance, and spent much of their time outside, not in the house, which they thought of as more a shed for storage and sleeping.  For that reason Thais are seldom house-proud in the way that is typical for Americans, for example.

Very insightful observation and very much true. The hot weather people simply don't make houses as a place to live because living, well, that's the stuff you do outdoors. That's one of the things I love about Thailand but it's also observably manifest that they don't respect houses or building in general.

 

9 hours ago, cmarshall said:

In terms of investment, partly because of the culture, but also the low carrying cost, they view apartments as a store of value rather than a source of income

I've even been here long enough that I fear THB inflation. Holding baht is suicide. If the currency was more stable they wouldn't have the need to buy condos as a store of value.

[utalkin2me]

It does not matter what they try to charge as long as you keep renting. 

[4MyEgo]

12 hours ago, JimmyJ said:

 

Why wouldn't they care?

Let's say the money came from drugs and they parked the money in property and the property was empty for years, no skin of off of their noses, one day when the market improves, they might sell it, as for drugs, the profit is in the thousands of % so I am told and better not to have cash laying around that's why they buy properties, gold and shares.

[DBath]

A correction is coming, PERIOD. It may take a few or more months, but you can’t have a global economic crisis and not have it impact the RE market, especially in a country that relies so heavily on international tourism. There has not been anything like covid-19. And it may take months for many buyers and investors to fully default on their properties. I’m staying in a luxury pool villa at the moment, though not in BKK, and paying less than  a third of the low season rate for the last 4 months. I wish it weren’t true, but trust me IT’S COMING.