Buyers Market?

[hellohello]

Hi TV,

 

Is it a good time to buy now in Thailand?

 

 

Is there a glut of properties?  Are prices falling'?

 

Thank you

 

[DrJack54]

Buy where?

Buy what type of property?

What price range? 

Reason to buy. Rent out or live in? 

etc etc. You need to provide far more details to obtain meaningful replies.

[Peterw42]

10 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Buy where?

Buy what type of property?

What price range? 

Reason to buy. Rent out or live in? 

etc etc. You need to provide far more details to obtain meaningful replies.

Yes thats right, it all comes down to those factors and personal circumstances.

[worgeordie]

Glut of properties ,but prices are not falling just yet......

regards Worgeordie

[Thomas J]

1 minute ago, worgeordie said:

Glut of properties ,but prices are not falling just yet......

regards Worgeordie

I agree with worgeordie,  there are a glut of properties but there seems to be a strong resistance to fire sale pricing.  Rental prices have definitely fallen, I guess some feel if they can stem the bleeding cash flow a bit, they are going to hang on.  Also, very peculiar here in Thailand that foreclosed properties don't' get auctioned off at good pricing.  In my village there are two properties that were foreclosed several years ago.  As a former banker in the USA I know it was a practice to liquidate non earning assets as quickly as possible to turn them into earning assets and to stem the costs of holding them.  Here, these banks have held on for years and of course the properties without maintenance are in disrepair but the pricing remains the same.  I suspect at some point with the number of Thai's hurt from the lack of income from Covid that it will result in even more foreclosures unless the government imposes a moratorium.  While good for the homeowner it will hurt the banks. 

[DrJack54]

1 hour ago, Thomas J said:

I agree with worgeordie,  there are a glut of properties but there seems to be a strong resistance to fire sale pricing.  Rental prices have definitely fallen, I guess some feel if they can stem the bleeding cash flow a bit, they are going to hang on.  Also, very peculiar here in Thailand that foreclosed properties don't' get auctioned off at good pricing.  In my village there are two properties that were foreclosed several years ago.  As a former banker in the USA I know it was a practice to liquidate non earning assets as quickly as possible to turn them into earning assets and to stem the costs of holding them.  Here, these banks have held on for years and of course the properties without maintenance are in disrepair but the pricing remains the same.  I suspect at some point with the number of Thai's hurt from the lack of income from Covid that it will result in even more foreclosures unless the government imposes a moratorium.  While good for the homeowner it will hurt the banks. 

I'm very much on your page.

I have spent pretty much all this year looking for place to buy. I finally achieved that couple weeks back.

Here is just one person's observations. 

I might add before I start I for once will state that I have lifelong experience in buying selling real estate in Australia. I don't often do that chest out sort of thing 

I have zero experience in Thailand.

First up the real estate web sites are a joke. It's even hard to find accurate location.

As for foreclosed properties that bank holds the provide couple of OUTSIDE pics. Rarely much more. It's almost like they get a tax break on bad debts. It has been a nightmare.

So since late 2019 till now I have hardly seen price drops. I have noticed increases on some properties that have been on market 12 months +. I'm sure others can give examples with different experience.

I don't like it when expats come on TV and bang on about some poor aspects to business in Thailand. However in my experience the real estate industry is a joke.

If anyone wishes to see how it should work then check site such as realestate.com. au

Sites such as those give exact location using Google maps. Also includes all recent history re sales rentals along with oversight of area and list all sales etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[digibum]

Agree with @DrJack54 and @Thomas J   
 

As someone that used to invest in RE in the US, banks used to want to get bad assets off their books yesterday.  Because of leverage rules they could make way more money clearing a bad loan off their books and claiming that cash as liquid assets than they could sitting on it waiting to get their money back.    
 

Still, in 2020, the best way to find a deal is to have boots on the ground and ask around.  
 

People are lowering prices but they don’t want to advertise it.  
 

The place I recently rented told all homeowners in the development not to advertise rents below a specific price. We rented for 40% below that price. ????   
 

We’re looking to buy but I can assure you I won’t be looking on any of the major property sites.  
 

Renting in the area for 6 or 12 months and putting out the feelers will result in way lower prices than showing up and announcing you’re in the market to buy.  
 

I’ve already seen two properties that were advertised online at one price being offered for considerably less via local contacts or calling the owner directly.  

[OneMoreFarang]

2 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

I don't like it when expats come on TV and bang on about some poor aspects to business in Thailand. However in my experience the real estate industry is a joke.

If anyone wishes to see how it should work then check site such as realestate.com. au

Sites such as those give exact location using Google maps. Also includes all recent history re sales rentals along with oversight of area and list all sales etc. 

Until now I have no experience with buying and selling property in Thailand. But I sold software to those companies in and outside of Thailand - many years ago.

It seems in Thailand there are not exclusive contracts for property agents. It's everybody against everybody. If they would publish an exact address, unit number, etc. then buyers wouldn't have a reason to contact the property agent who published that info (and paid for research, publishing). And then the agent gets of course commissions as percentage of the sales price. So the agents will at least try to sell as expensive as possible.

It seems this situation with (unregulated) property agents makes the situation in Thailand as bad as it is.

Or not? I am happy to learn.

[tomazbodner]

Bought a place at about 45% off price that was "starting at" price a year ago, could have been 50% had I bought it 6 months earlier when developer was closing the project, but bought resold unit and seller had to pay business tax so it was higher despite making no money on reselling it. Those who bought units at full price are obviously furious, but are hoping for prices to recover as they can't afford to sell at such a loss especially if they owe banks more than they would get for the unit. That could be behind resold units keeping relatively high prices. The developers are discounting projects that have completed already and are mostly sold, but doesn't seem to be that way for projects that aren't completed yet. A place very close is selling units at 250,000 baht/m2 still now, although it's not a building that would be worth half that, and one next to it, that just finished and looks eerily similar inside and outside, just from different developer, is going for half that. So... resold units - unlikely to drop much especially if banks financed them. New units still unsold could be bought for bargain. But if you're expecting that they'll drop to 1980's prices... I doubt you'll ever see that happen. Regardless of what TV real-estate expert commentators tell you.

[onebir]

6 hours ago, Thomas J said:

As a former banker in the USA I know it was a practice to liquidate non earning assets as quickly as possible to turn them into earning assets and to stem the costs of holding them.  Here, these banks have held on for years and of course the properties without maintenance are in disrepair but the pricing remains the same.

Sounds like they're keeping them on the books without provisions/writedowns. If they sell them they need to take the loss. Which hits their capital (& capital adequacy ratios). If this is widespread Thai banks could be considerably less solvent than they look.

[Thomas J]

11 hours ago, onebir said:

Sounds like they're keeping them on the books without provisions/writedowns. If they sell them they need to take the loss. Which hits their capital (& capital adequacy ratios). If this is widespread Thai banks could be considerably less solvent than they look.

It could be.  I am not sure what the rules are here in Thailand.  In the USA assets had to be priced as "marked to market'  That if you recall precipitated the financial crisis in 2008.  Banks, insurance companies etc that had mortgage backed securities as capital reserves were forced to mark their value to the market which was greatly reduced do to the uncertainty of their value.  If they had been allowed to hold them at book value they would have been fine.  However at market value it showed they were undercapitalized and it catapulted the USA into the financial crisis.  In the USA banks are allowed to write off a certain amount of earnings as "loan loss reserves"  That is they can deduct from income monies which are then held in reserve to cover future losses.  So if they write down or charge off bad loans or take a loss on the sale of properties it goes against the loan loss reserve they have already set aside.  Not sure in Thailand but you are correct. If they do not have to write down or charge off those assets they may be far less solvent than they appear.  With the Covid crisis slamming businesses and individuals it is entirely possible that the Thai banks will be swamped with non paying mortgages and loans. 

 

[sammieuk1]

Here's my observation Whilst locked out .

 

Been looking for a 3bed villa 400-500sqm plot modern or brand new 3.5-4.5m in the Hua Hin / Cha Am area there are very few over the last 10 months but now I see so many in the north of 7.5m bracket and it looks to me like the old Thai trick of when there is no or little demand jack the price up anyone else noticed?????

[Ireland32]

Certainly Not Yet 

[onebir]

2 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I am not sure what the rules are here in Thailand. 

This is what I mean: the bank behaviour you describe doesn't make sense unless a) they're able to keep assets on their books at historical cost (with minimal loss provisioning), & b) they would have to take losses if they sold them. (ie normal historical cost accounting)

[Acharn]

22 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I agree with worgeordie,  there are a glut of properties but there seems to be a strong resistance to fire sale pricing.  Rental prices have definitely fallen, I guess some feel if they can stem the bleeding cash flow a bit, they are going to hang on.  Also, very peculiar here in Thailand that foreclosed properties don't' get auctioned off at good pricing.  In my village there are two properties that were foreclosed several years ago.  As a former banker in the USA I know it was a practice to liquidate non earning assets as quickly as possible to turn them into earning assets and to stem the costs of holding them.  Here, these banks have held on for years and of course the properties without maintenance are in disrepair but the pricing remains the same.  I suspect at some point with the number of Thai's hurt from the lack of income from Covid that it will result in even more foreclosures unless the government imposes a moratorium.  While good for the homeowner it will hurt the banks. 

Saw the same thing in 1997, during/after the Dom Yum Kung financial crisis. People trying to sell real estate absolutely refused to lower prices. I guess eventually some of the did, but some of the properties with construction going on didn't find a buyer for years afterward. 

[ronaldo0]

Some places I have seen almost halved in price but not many . Most staying same for sale although long term rentals have dropped loads in price and I have even seen some 24-28m bht villas going up 3-4m ????

[ukrules]

19 hours ago, digibum said:

The place I recently rented told all homeowners in the development not to advertise rents below a specific price. We rented for 40% below that price

 

Interesting, they know buyers work out a 'fair price' based on the rental amount and some preferred yield.

 

Suggesting they are very overpriced and they're attempting to hide it from casual observers.

[bkk6060]

 

 

 

“The demand from foreigners may disappear in the first half following the outbreak,” said Sopon Pornchokchai, the consultancy’s president, adding that there are 100,000 vacant condominiums in and around Bangkok. “We’ll need to rely on local buyers, but that won’t be easy.”

The above is just in Bangkok and driving around, there is still new building going on.

Most places in the world this would be a real estate depression with rock bottom prices.

But, as others have said most will not lower their price and possibly take a loss.  

My opinion is that any purchase now will be dead/depreciating investments for some time.

Usually prices do not rise in a healthy market until inventory becomes close to exhausted, which may not be the case here for many many years, if ever.

Edited December 31, 2020 by bkk6060

[Lacessit]

Another property thread. Yawn.

When someone can explain to me the logic of owning a house without owning the land under it, or owning a condo apartment in a minority situation, in a country where one can be booted out at any time at the whim of an immigration official, I'm all ears. And spare me the BS about owning through a company, it's illegal.

Until Thailand liberalizes its property laws, I'm renting. And it's not as if rents are expensive.

Having said that, IF I was buying property here, I would give Bangkok a big miss. A city one metre above sea level? The Indonesians have already decided to move their capital to Borneo from Java.

[OneMoreFarang]

5 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Another property thread. Yawn.

When someone can explain to me the logic of owning a house without owning the land under it, or owning a condo apartment in a minority situation, in a country where one can be booted out at any time at the whim of an immigration official, I'm all ears. And spare me the BS about owning through a company, it's illegal.

Until Thailand liberalizes its property laws, I'm renting. And it's not as if rents are expensive.

Having said that, IF I was buying property here, I would give Bangkok a big miss. A city one metre above sea level? The Indonesians have already decided to move their capital to Borneo from Java.

It seems you see everything only from your perspective.

Some of us work here and/or have Thai residency. Some want their own place to look exactly like they want and not someone else who owns it.

Live and let live, what's so difficult about that concept?

[scubascuba3]

19 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Until now I have no experience with buying and selling property in Thailand. But I sold software to those companies in and outside of Thailand - many years ago.

It seems in Thailand there are not exclusive contracts for property agents. It's everybody against everybody. If they would publish an exact address, unit number, etc. then buyers wouldn't have a reason to contact the property agent who published that info (and paid for research, publishing). And then the agent gets of course commissions as percentage of the sales price. So the agents will at least try to sell as expensive as possible.

It seems this situation with (unregulated) property agents makes the situation in Thailand as bad as it is.

Or not? I am happy to learn.

No need for an agent here, just advertise yourself on Facebook, get good photographs though

[xylophone]

On 12/30/2020 at 3:23 PM, hellohello said:

Hi TV,

 

Is it a good time to buy now in Thailand?

 

 

Is there a glut of properties?  Are prices falling'?

 

Thank you

 

Before you take the plunge it would be a good idea to familiarise yourself with what you can and can't own in Thailand, because Thailand's property/land laws are quite different from many of the countries from whence farangs came.

 

Real estate agents and others will propose lots of different schemes to be able to "get round" the Thai laws, so best you brush up on them so you don't get taken to the cleaners.

 

Condos would appear to be the easiest to buy, but then again, if you have noisy neighbours move in, then the chances of you being able to get something done about it, being a farang, are few and far between.

 

And for the record I have bought and sold two houses and an apartment here in Thailand, so I do have some experience in the matter, but now I rent because it's cheap enough, I can move whenever I want to, so noisy neighbours don't bother me, if I find another/better apartment, then I can move at a moments notice, and I have made alterations to my current apartment to suit my tastes, and the owner is quite okay with that.

[Lacessit]

13 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It seems you see everything only from your perspective.

Some of us work here and/or have Thai residency. Some want their own place to look exactly like they want and not someone else who owns it.

Live and let live, what's so difficult about that concept?

Not the most profound of statements, everyone sees things from their own perspective.

I'm not sure what working in Thailand has to do with owning property, admittedly having Thai residency makes the concept more attractive as there is more security.

Horses for courses. Buying property when one is in their twenties, thirties and forties is probably the best investment anyone can make. As a retiree in my seventies, IMO it would be as dumb as a can of soup.

I used to be quite house-proud, until I realised I was spending far too much of my life in upkeep. Selling up was liberating. I've become a minimalist, I don't need to impress friends and neighbors.

I used to sleep rough, in single men's accommodation and shearer's quarters. What I live in now for peanuts in rent is a palace by comparison.

Certainly, live and let live. What's wrong with me expressing a different point of view?

 

 

[newnative]

      I haven't seen much in the way of price drops yet--at least on anything I'd consider buying.  You still have developers playing ridiculous games.  One project had a special sale for 11/11.  I inquired a few days after 11/11 and was told, "Oh, that was just for 11/11."  Huh?  So, you can sell a condo for a certain price on 11/11 but not on 11/14--or whenever I show up with money in hand?  You just lost my business--why would I buy a condo for more when I know it was lower a few days ago?  Goodbye.

     My partner and I spent some days in Bangkok a couple weeks ago looking at condos for sale at some new projects.  The discounts weren't much and the prices still seemed very high; and the quality in most cases very low--cheap kitchen cabinets, cheap laminate wood floors, cheap counters, cheap wardrobes, cheap bathroom vanities.  7MB for 35sqm--you would hope to at least have everything very high quality at that price point.  

[Lacessit]

15 minutes ago, newnative said:

      I haven't seen much in the way of price drops yet--at least on anything I'd consider buying.  You still have developers playing ridiculous games.  One project had a special sale for 11/11.  I inquired a few days after 11/11 and was told, "Oh, that was just for 11/11."  Huh?  So, you can sell a condo for a certain price on 11/11 but not on 11/14--or whenever I show up with money in hand?  You just lost my business--why would I buy a condo for more when I know it was lower a few days ago?  Goodbye.

     My partner and I spent some days in Bangkok a couple weeks ago looking at condos for sale at some new projects.  The discounts weren't much and the prices still seemed very high; and the quality in most cases very low--cheap kitchen cabinets, cheap laminate wood floors, cheap counters, cheap wardrobes, cheap bathroom vanities.  7MB for 35sqm--you would hope to at least have everything very high quality at that price point.  

7 MB for a condo? I'm renting in a 35 sqm condo in Chiang Rai that would go for 1 million baht. A German used to own it, he fitted it out with good quality stuff throughout.  Sounds to me like Bangkok is insane, the bubble has to burst at some point.

[alex8912]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Another property thread. Yawn.

When someone can explain to me the logic of owning a house without owning the land under it, or owning a condo apartment in a minority situation, in a country where one can be booted out at any time at the whim of an immigration official, I'm all ears. And spare me the BS about owning through a company, it's illegal.

Until Thailand liberalizes its property laws, I'm renting. And it's not as if rents are expensive.

Having said that, IF I was buying property here, I would give Bangkok a big miss. A city one metre above sea level? The Indonesians have already decided to move their capital to Borneo from Java.

Waste of time post again. Yawn. 

[Pilotman]

9 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

7 MB for a condo? I'm renting in a 35 sqm condo in Chiang Rai that would go for 1 million baht. A German used to own it, he fitted it out with good quality stuff throughout.  Sounds to me like Bangkok is insane, the bubble has to burst at some point.

my house is circa 220 sq m, with a private pool and large garden,  all for 6 million. 

[Lacessit]

2 minutes ago, alex8912 said:

Waste of time post again. Yawn. 

I must have missed out on ignoring you, I'll rectify that.

[wwest5829]

Just in time subject. We (Thai partner - we have been together 4 1/2 years and plan to marry in 2021). Currently renting at 15,000 per month, but wish to buy. House in her name ... with usufruct for me, not an issue. Found a house here in Chiang Mai (I have lived here for over 9 years). Fair price. The issue is financing ... I have resources but ... majority monthly income of the required 65,000 baht. So, I can handle a down payment and then need financing of about 1.5 million for remaining debt (cost about 2.2 million baht). Any latest possibilities for getting mortgage? She, currently has no income, in part due to Covid.

[newnative]

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

7 MB for a condo? I'm renting in a 35 sqm condo in Chiang Rai that would go for 1 million baht. A German used to own it, he fitted it out with good quality stuff throughout.  Sounds to me like Bangkok is insane, the bubble has to burst at some point.

      Some of the new Bangkok condo projects in prime locations are going for around 200,000 baht a sqm or over--in some cases, well over.  Ashton Asoke Rama 9, for example, runs around 249,000 baht a sqm.  Laviq Condo, 262,000.  Beatniq Condo, 308,000.  Noble Ploenchit, 288,000.   As my father used to say, too rich for my blood.