Thailand reports daily record of over 2,000 COVID-19 cases, 4 new deaths

[Baggy]

4 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Who is to say these numbers haven’t resulted from less tests but a higher infection rate? I do really think the government have no real idea what the situation is or how to manage it. 

Question: How many tests

If we know number of tests versus number of infections then you have a %.

Actual cases dramatically higher than they know, !!!

[Sametboy2019]

With so many provinces barely in double digits wouldn't it make sense to stop people travelling to different provinces.

 

[PGSan]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

You are wrong, lockdown is needed to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed.

That is exactly what was said, so not wrong.

[PGSan]

2 hours ago, Amdesign said:

They do need to purchase more ventilators.

Why not?  Do They have enough for any escalation in need?

[bkk6060]

I sure hope the business and hotel owners are happy now after supporting/encouraging the government's promotion to travel over Songkran.  Happy happy they made a few bucks. Now, restrictions, lockdowns, sickness, death, no tourists and further economic deterioration/decimation are the result.

No forward thinking. Very very selfish and sad.

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by bkk6060

[smedly]

1 hour ago, Phaser said:

I have not seen any “R” numbers for Thailand reported? The R number is the number of uninflected people one Covid positive person will likely infect 

 

if the number is below 1 the virus will burn itself out - how much beyond 1 the R number is allows for projections or rate of spread - 

They have no idea what an R number is and even if they did they would need to ramp up testing to get even close to seeing what it is - they obviously have no intention of doing so, perhaps the huge approved budget for such things has disappeared into a void

[bdenner]

3 hours ago, bermondburi said:

Ban all sales of alcohol from today.

9pm curfew from tonight.

And anyone who doesn't like it should leave Thailand immediately. 

No, I have just topped up my 30 day supply in preparation for the booze ban. Not letting this general and his idiot health minister con me more than they have.

Happy Songkran to both of you and long may the "merit" with your respective families give you peace. HISTORY WON'T

[Golden Triangle]

My Mrs was informed by a family member today that the small village in Chantaburi province where their orchards are 5 people have tested positive for the virus, fortunately not related to or known by the family, strange that, as Songkran only finished on Sunday 18/4

[PEE TEE]

4 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

I sure hope the business and hotel owners are happy now after supporting/encouraging the government's promotion to travel over Songkran.  Happy happy they made a few bucks. Now, restrictions, lockdowns, sickness, death, no tourists and further economic deterioration/decimation are the result.

No forward thinking. Very very selfish and sad.

 

yes they only worship money 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

A decent summary of the hospital beds situation from The Thai Enquirer:

 

"Taweesin [of the Ministry of Public Health] said Bangkok, the hardest-hit province, has 331 intensive care (ICU) beds, with 262 currently occupied and 69 available.

 

For the entire country, there are around 28,000 hospital beds. Only 1,000 are now available, which would only last for another 19 days based on the latest infection rate.

 

“If there are 1,500 cases per day, there will be the need to use around 52 beds per day and of that, 10 to 13 will be needed in Bangkok,” Taweesin said. “At this rate, the available beds in the capital will be full within the next six to eight days,” he said. [He appears to be referring to Bangkok ICU beds here.]

 

Thailand has been recording around 1,500 new cases per day since April 15. “With 1,000 available beds left in the country, that would last [overall] for another 19 days,” he added."

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/26684/more-than-2000-new-covid-cases-in-record-daily-high/

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Kinnock]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

It may be surprising to learn that until the recent UK strain outbreak, Thailand's testing strategy exceeded many countries including the UK based on international WHO recommendations to adjust testing to track positive cases. Under this system as positive cases go up, authorities raise tests to bring their ratio back down. 

 

This graph compares Thailand's performance with the UK. Lower is better. Thailand was hit with the UK strain because the UK failed to contain their outbreak and limit mutations.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

I'm probably interpreting this incorrectly - but if the % of tests with positive results is staying at about the same level, then doesn't this mean that the increasing number of cases being reported as a "new wave" is really just down to increasing test numbers?

 

The % of people found to be positive has stayed about the same, so presumably the number of people in the community who are positive has also stayed static?

 

The reported rise in death figures are not a reliable indicator either, as people die all the time of other causes and some may also have COVID, but testing has increased.  And hospitalization is directly related to testing too - as in Thailand it's compulsory for positive tests.

 

And testing increased just before Songkran as people wanted a negative test cert to travel - then as you mentioned total testing volumes increased to keep pace with the increased number of positives being found.

 

I'm not trying to say cases are not increasing in reality - I think that's inevitable with new strains, COVID fatigue and limited vaccination - but I think we have no idea about the true situation.

 

[jmcet]

4 hours ago, Nismooo said:

Are you outside thailand and trying to get in with a business visa?

 

Because other than that i do not see why anyone would come up with such idea at this point. 

 

They should totally close the borders and NOT risk anymore mutations if they even want to have a chance. 

 

Covid did not start in Thong Lor, it came in from multiple other countries before it infected the ”Hi sos”.

it came from China...short and sweet

[sandyf]

5 hours ago, smiggley said:

What did the govt expect. They vertially said to the virus go forth and multiply throughout the country during songkran.

Just as other countries did over Christmas, the UK had 68 thousand cases in one day on 8th January, more than Thailand has had in over a year.

Every government is between a rock and a hard place and it appears many could be doing with some advice from the experts on this forum.

[Osthos]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

I'm probably interpreting this incorrectly - but if the % of tests with positive results is staying at about the same level, then doesn't this mean that the increasing number of cases being reported as a "new wave" is really just down to increasing test numbers?

 

The % of people found to be positive has stayed about the same, so presumably the number of people in the community who are positive has also stayed static?

 

The reported rise in death figures are not a reliable indicator either, as people die all the time of other causes and some may also have COVID, but testing has increased.  And hospitalization is directly related to testing too - as in Thailand it's compulsory for positive tests.

 

And testing increased just before Songkran as people wanted a negative test cert to travel - then as you mentioned total testing volumes increased to keep pace with the increased number of positives being found.

 

I'm not trying to say cases are not increasing in reality - I think that's inevitable with new strains, COVID fatigue and limited vaccination - but I think we have no idea about the true situation.

 

 

Whilst testing is certainly not at the number needed or wanted, I think the trends from testing is the most valuable information. If you're testing the same number each day and the positive percentage is rising, then infections are rising and vice versa. 

 

The limited amount of testing isn't helping with getting the outbreak under control, but it does tell us whether or not the infection rate is going up or down. It tells us if we need more restrictions to control the outbreak. 

[Kinnock]

1 minute ago, Osthos said:

 

Whilst testing is certainly not at the number needed or wanted, I think the trends from testing is the most valuable information. If you're testing the same number each day and the positive percentage is rising, then infections are rising and vice versa. 

 

The limited amount of testing isn't helping with getting the outbreak under control, but it does tell us whether or not the infection rate is going up or down. It tells us if we need more restrictions to control the outbreak. 

True ..... but the positive % is not increasing in the graph.

 

 

[smedly]

1 hour ago, Antonymous said:

Exactly. And the 29yo female who was the unfortunate death #120 since the start of Covid at the beginning of last year was reported on the Thai Govt website as obese. As far as I can tell from the reports the vast majority of fatalities have been very old and all but a few of the deaths have been people with pre-existing conditions that put them at high risk with Covid.

 

I wonder how many people in any over 30 population would fall into the category of having a pre-existing condition of one sort or another - I would think quite a lot

[Osthos]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

True ..... but the positive % is not increasing in the graph.

 

 

 

I think it's too early for the data to tell us anything about the outbreak. It's only been 6 days since the new restrictions came effect and a few after Songkran travel. Given the incubation period of the virus, right now it's not telling us if the restrictions are lowering infections or if Songkran travel screwed us all, big time.

[bluedoc]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

 

Thailand has managed to keep its caseload far lower than many other countries but the new outbreak, which include the highly-transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, has caused more than 20,000 domestic infections with 27 fatalities in just 23 days

Yes, keep caseload low because of lying about cause of death and lack of testing.

[smedly]

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

Anutin and the rest of the Goons that are making this show seem so pathetic, not only need to listen to the Doctors within Thai Borders.

They need to put on a pair of Earphones, and connect with the rest of the World.

Many Countries throughout the World have been, and are going through this, and have a whole wealth of information and expertise that could be tapped into.

What would seem apparent, is that Covid is well and truly here in LOS, and its time for the powers that be to step up to the mark, and frankly ...man up

are you not getting it !!!!!!!!!!

 

they have only one interest and one objective and it is nothing to do with keeping Thai population safe 

[VBF]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Oh a personal attack, bring it on.  Lets see how long a piece of string really is.  You have not been around very long then if you believe opening up the borders will keep illegal entrants from coming in to Thailand and they will be able to control it.  I worked for many years in assisting, well trying to at least shut down the human trafficking here and in a few bordering countries, but that went no where, ergo the landing of Thailand on Tier 2 of the Human Trafficking watch list.  So again go ahead and tell me more.  This virus is not arriving just from Illegals.

Without making a personal attack (I'm not, just responding!) I don't understand your last sentence "This virus is not arriving just from Illegals."

Why? Because Thailand has insisted that all legal entrants quarantine for the last year, therefore surely if it's arriving, it must be from illegals?  

 

Of course, this doesn't prevent home-grown cases - is that what you meant?

Edited April 23, 2021 by VBF
Spelling

[smedly]

1 hour ago, chang1 said:

Have you not heard about the S. Africa or Brazilian strains?

wasn't Brazil where they did the trials on the Chinese Vaccine and also possibly Africa

 

funny that

[VBF]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

As predicted, we are now seeing a jump in cases probably from the travel and large group and family gatherings over the Songkran. Once we move past this blip, the new infections should return to pre-Songkran levels. 

Except that there may be more people infected FROM the Songkran infections and each of those potentially infects other people. That's how the "R-numbers" are calculated.

[Gandtee]

5 hours ago, conimex said:

Indeed ! I believe the figures they give are not correct, there are many more people infected, as long as the test rate is low, the official figures will stay low. 

Agreed. If you don't test you don't know how many there are infected. Simple logic. Now that's a problem.????

[Bkk Brian]

29 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

A decent summary of the hospital beds situation from The Thai Enquirer:

 

"Taweesin [of the Ministry of Public Health] said Bangkok, the hardest-hit province, has 331 intensive care (ICU) beds, with 262 currently occupied and 69 available.

 

For the entire country, there are around 28,000 hospital beds. Only 1,000 are now available, which would only last for another 19 days based on the latest infection rate.

 

“If there are 1,500 cases per day, there will be the need to use around 52 beds per day and of that, 10 to 13 will be needed in Bangkok,” Taweesin said. “At this rate, the available beds in the capital will be full within the next six to eight days,” he said. [He appears to be referring to Bangkok ICU beds here.]

 

Thailand has been recording around 1,500 new cases per day since April 15. “With 1,000 available beds left in the country, that would last [overall] for another 19 days,” he added."

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/26684/more-than-2000-new-covid-cases-in-record-daily-high/

 

 

This one also, very concerning, more and more to come I'm afraid.

 

Elderly woman dies of Covid after being filmed pleading for help at home

 

An elderly woman who spent days suffering from Covid-19 at home apparently without medical help has died, local media reported on Friday, a day after a video of her pleas went viral.

She was among three older women filmed in a clip posted on TikTok Thursday, saying they had been “waiting for days” at home without food or help.

 

 Currently, there are 1,423 infected patients waiting at home for hospital beds to become available nearby.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/26700/elderly-woman-dies-of-covid-after-being-filmed-pleading-for-help-at-home/

 

 

[offset]

3 minutes ago, Gandtee said:

Agreed. If you don't test you don't know how many there are infected. Simple logic. Now that's a problem.????

 

The UK have in numbers tested more than the population and inoculated more than half the population so how as it helped them

[smedly]

47 minutes ago, Yewbzee said:

I was starting to panic a bit there with regards to these increasing case numbers and then I read the bit where they have prohibited the sale of alcohol in restaurants. Thats a relief, Im sure that will stop this thing in its tracks.

 

The irony is - what do the masses of hand sanitisers use as their active ingredient to eradication and kill the virus  ?

 

People should be encouraged to drink as much alcohol as possible and as often as possible keeping as much in their body as they can tolerate and it should all be free and plentiful 

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 minutes ago, VBF said:

Except that there may be more people infected FROM the Songkran infections and each of those potentially infects other people. That's how the "R-numbers" are calculated.

The next 5-7 days will be critical.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

At the current rate of COVID vaccinations in Thailand, such as the latest daily rate of more than 87,000 first shot doses per day, it would take the country another 560 or so days (1 year and almost two thirds) in order to reach first dose injections for 50 million people out of its 70 million population. And keep in mind, all the current vaccines planned for use in Thailand are of the two dose variety (AstraZeneca, Sinovac, possibly Pfizer).

 

However, it's also possible that the government will be able to boost its daily rate of vaccine administrations once their supply of locally produced AstraZeneca vaccine becomes available starting in mid-May to June.  Thus far, they've administered less than a total of 1 million doses overall.

 

The chart below shows the latest stats for the most recent day of vaccines being given, first dose and then second dose subtotals, followed by the lower section that shows the cumulative amounts in those same categories for Thailand thus far overall.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/fanmoph/posts/6109659112393726

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has managed to keep its caseload far lower than many other countries but the new outbreak, which include the highly-transmissible B.1.1.7 variant, has caused more than 20,000 domestic infections with 27 fatalities in just 23 days.

Songkran was such a good idea to boost the local economy.... I wonder how much this has cost the provinces?

 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, PatOngo said:

.............or has little or no idea!

I'd have a stab at the latter.