15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Chonburi. 

 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

Surely in any normal country with a 4% positivity rate on 500 tests they would be ramping up inspection massively. See Singapore and Taiwan right now.

21 minutes ago, DavisH said:

LOL, so go to sime up country village and do mass testing and you will find thousands of cases? You are insane. There is NO comparison between a crowded village and an issan village. Ask members in local villages here if they are seeing hundreds of cases of covid. 

Been a couple in my village. You will probably say that's only two and you would be right but then I would say how many villages are there in Thailand. I might also say how many asymtomatic people are there in each village. This is something we do not know because as everyone knows none to very little mass testing goes on in villages. They just wait for people to get sick and go to hospital.

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

The news report about the infections.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/1219-more-prison-inmates-in-thailand-found-infected-with-covid-19-today/

To be pedantic, it’s says most are asymptomatic OR have mild symptoms. You missed out the last bit. 
 

but of course, just like the population outside prison, only a few get sick enough to be hospitalized and fewer still die.

 

As a matter of interest, the article seems to suggest that 6 were transferred for hospital treatment today. Would that have happened without the current spotlight on prisons I wonder? We will never know.

 

3 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

Soon enough the powers that be and certain people here will be separating and discounting the cases in front line workers, athletes , those who potentially caught it while waiting in line for a vaccine, and then people in the slums

 

Within a few weeks the only cases that will matter are the farangs walking the streets in Nana and Pattaya, and since they'll never admit how they got it, boom! We're down to 0 cases!

Lets not forget the armed forces. I'm sure they'll be very transparent with their figures if they are ever honest enough to reveal them

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The "sky is falling" brigade has said since the beginning that the numbers of cases is being under reported, will you now say they are being "over reported"? Your central thesis throughout has been the government figures can't be trusted...so you're kinda in a pickle now. 

Just think, you use "the sky is falling brigade" to denigrate the people here who have merely been looking out for the well being of the country and people living here, because we we live in reality and understood what would happen without proper precautions being taken (especially when some of us lived through this situation in other countries last year)

 

Tourism isn't going to be returning in a meaningful way until at least 2022 because of this recent wave and how it's been handled.  Which, on top of the deaths and long term impacts, was something we were all worried about happening. If you don't think losing tourism for another year is a big deal then more power to you I guess

For those of you who do not trust the government testing data, or feel that not enough testing is being done:

 

I recommend you follow Danderman's advice and track the Covid-19 mortality data.  But, if you don't trust that:

 

Then monitor the bed availability of your local hospital, especially the ICU ward.

 

That is something you could do to help your fellow TV members assess the severity of the situation.

 

It would also give you an empirical reading on spread in your locality.

 

Track the hospital bed vacancy data.

 

The Chonburi Department of Public Health announced 45 new and confirmed cases of Covid-19 with one new death this morning (May 17th)

 

This makes a total of 3,737 cases of Covid-19 in the current round of infections, with 1,151 still in medical care, with a total of fourteen recorded deaths in Chonburi since the start of this recent round of infections in early April.

 

Additionally, 2,572 people in total have now been released from medical care and fully recovered since this current wave began. 91 people were released yesterday.

 

The district-level new cases were as follows today:

 

Read more:

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/05/17/chonburi-announces-45-confirmed-and-new-cases-of-covid-19-with-one-new-death/

 

2 hours ago, colinneil said:

Hello, what planet are you living on? Certainly not the same 1 as the rest of us. Surge confined to Bangkok, dream on, 2 young boys in the next Issan village came home for songkran, along with their mother, mother has died with covid, boys in hospital.

 

Thailand planet..............

22 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Chonburi. 

 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

So 40 positives a day at 4% with only 500 tests being in the mass testing category. Make it 10,000 tests a day most of that mass testing and one would expect around 400 a day this being an underestimate. From this I think it's fair to say that the daily national numbers reflect the numbers of tests and not the true number of infections. Again and again it has been said here that only true mass testing will get you closer to the actual numbers.

Promises, promises...

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, phills2k1 said:

Just think, you use "the sky is falling brigade" to denigrate the people here who have merely been looking out for the well being of the country and people living here, because we we live in reality and understood what would happen without proper precautions being taken (especially when some of us lived through this situation in other countries last year)

 

Tourism isn't going to be returning in a meaningful way until at least 2022 because of this recent wave and how it's been handled.  Which, on top of the deaths and long term impacts, was something we were all worried about happening. If you don't think losing tourism for another year is a big deal then more power to you I guess

I've said many times on the Forum that tourism will take many years to recover...and it's a very sad thing for the people and businesses involved. The sky is falling brigade has brought nothing to the table except uninformed criticism of Thailand's handling of the pandemic, which in many ways has been exemplary. In case you haven't heard, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia, to say nothing of India, are having increased waves of new cases too so its a region wide problem. 

34 minutes ago, DavisH said:

Your evidence of this is....?

I would suggst that the vast majority of prisoners were/are asymptomatic and it has escaped detection for a long time - just as happened in the martkets in Samut Sakorn. 

Follow the death count to get an idea of the extent of the problem, or are they sweeping deaths under the carpet too? 

the authorities have already stated that the cases were not a totally recent event and occurred going back to April.
 

So while many might have innocently escaped detection,  the admission that cases date back to April seems to clearly indicate that they knew cases existed back then. They just didn’t check for more cases by testing the whole prison population.....and didn’t report those that they knew about.

 

I’m afraid there is no way out of acknowledging the fact that cases existed for some weeks in prison, and were not reported. Hence the reason why the prison authorities did just that.

 

Now, how do you know that deaths from COVID were not being reported as such and instead were being treated as a”normal” death?

 

I don’t know, neither do you, but the recent  experience of not reporting cases, causes me to lean in a certain direction.

 

2 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I've said many times on the Forum that tourism will take many years to recover...and it's a very sad thing for the people and businesses involved. The sky is falling brigade has brought nothing to the table except uninformed criticism of Thailand's handling of the pandemic, which in many ways has been exemplary. In case you haven't heard, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia, to say nothing of India, are having increased waves of new cases too so its a region wide problem. 

Yep they've done well. Gone from number 117 to number 91 in a couple of months on the covid worldometer. Doing a great job. Should knock off Norway at number 90 in the next couple of days.

This all again raises the question of why in the middle of last year the government didn't go all out to acquire a huge supply of vaccine-any vaccine(s)-because anyone who was being paid to pay attention, and followed world news reports, could see that eventually the prisons would be a giant problem. I was still living in Din Daeng at that time and thought I was daily observing a miracle-crowded, few masks, few to no cases; it was a mystery. I thought it was genetics, or climate, or pure luck that might go on forever. I didn't think about the prisons, because I was not near one and I'm just an expat. But luck ran out and reality set in.

9 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The sky is falling brigade has brought nothing to the table except uninformed criticism of Thailand's handling of the pandemic, which in many ways has been exemplary.

Actually that very brigade that you like to label were calling for plenty before the Songkran holidays, the very same advice that the experts were also giving and was ignored by the government. Hence we're in this disastrous situation now.

Vaccinations Update through Sunday. Not much change after a relatively low activity weekend.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/310625070547403

 

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Apart from the prison system, and clusters in Bangkok, this wave is receding.

 

if you disagree, please post where the wave is increasing, outside of the places I just mentioned.

 

Let me guess, Thailand?

Migrant labor encampments - with some prison-like conditions (density) - operated by the constructions companies are the next big bomb to drop. There's been one so far (Italian-Thai), expect more.

 

These camps are EVERYWHERE, and residents move about the city. I saw lines of workers from a  camp nearby queuing with paperwork, assume that's for testing.

 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

 

That graph looks like an exponential graph to me.

55 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Chonburi. 

 

About 1,000 tests a day. More than half is random.  Currently a 4% positivity rate. 

Still on and on about Chonburi. Can you give us anywhere else like was asked or not. We would like to know.

33 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

For those of you who do not trust the government testing data, or feel that not enough testing is being done:

 

I recommend you follow Danderman's advice and track the Covid-19 mortality data.  But, if you don't trust that:

 

Then monitor the bed availability of your local hospital, especially the ICU ward.

 

That is something you could do to help your fellow TV members assess the severity of the situation.

 

It would also give you an empirical reading on spread in your locality.

 

Track the hospital bed vacancy data.

Almost full at my local with local cases and spill over from BKK. Apart from that the Permant Secratary for Health has stated that out of 1000 ICU beds there are 100 left which will be taken in the coming wks. I hope this helps my fellow TV members with the severity of the situation. Thanks for the advice.

Thailand now have more cases per capital than USA.

How the table has turned.

Where is the CZAR  when we need him.

 

Even Nataibeach has gone lost.

 

What's going on here??

2 hours ago, robblok said:

 

However even in Brazil now they are trying to take the president to the courts for his total faillure. Unlike you i like to see people that perform bad be punished. If this pandemic forces out this military government then one thing good came from it.

Nothing will force this government (that you supported along with the coup) out I am afraid. They are not going anywhere unless the proprietor wills it. 

2 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand now have more cases per capital than USA.

How the table has turned.

It will be interesting to see where Thailand sits for new daily cases on worldometre. Safe to say India no.1, Brazil no.2 and USA no.3 but Thailand I think will be in the top ten. I would say it's pretty obvious Thailand isn't handling things well and before anyone says oh its the prisoners well maybe so but prisoners are the govts. responsibility and they have clearly dropped the ball there not to mention allowing Songkran travel and not doing a hard lock down after the Thong Lor spread.

Yes, but, no but.

 

It does no good to discount specific clusters and imagine there isn't really a problem.

 

Schoolboy analysis is dangerous.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also not counting the workers camps in Bangkok. 86% explosion in positivity rates. However lets gloss over the prisions and camps. Makes the numbers so much better for you

 

Hows your last prediction doing?

To be clear, the numbers outside the prison system reflect a 5% positivity rate, with a daily random walk. 

Mother-in-law is in Bangkok and can't go home to Ubon. Her village puuyai baan is not letting anyone in from red zones or local infected areas.  The village down the road has 11 reported cases and no one is allowed to go there or come from there. The local amphur hospital is still coping with the cases for now.

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27555/public-health-officials-question-bangkok-governors-office-and-ccsa-for-re-opening-restaurants/

 

Public health officials question Bangkok governor’s office and CCSA for re-opening restaurants

 

Thai public health officials are warning the government that re-opening lockdown measures too fast could exacerbate a bad situation, sources told Thai Enquirer on Monday.

 

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said this weekend that it would relax some lockdown measures including allowing limited dining-in at restaurants.

 

The move comes despite infection rates hovering around 2,000 new cases per day and around 20-30 new fatalities per day.