6 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Surely todays data comes in as 1/7th of the plot. The smoothing effect helps to see the trend. If the next 3 or 4 days are also high it will be very apparent. 

What I was referring to was the stats from ourworldindata charts are only up until the 29th May so we need to wait another 2 days for these figures to catch up and be reflected in the chart

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Why would anything to do with a global pandemic be "good news"?  It's all bad, but at least not as bad as some people feared.  Hopefully the spike can be attributed to the factory outbreaks and they can be contained.   

Factories, construction camps and areas, Talad Markets, and wherever any large groups may gather.  Add in the fact that people then travel and continue the covid spread into homes and communities as has been happening.  I wonder what the true number is of folks not seeking medical care.  It is enough of a concern here in Bangkok that it has already been discussed and brought forth at the government level.  I will be waiting for the BMA to put squads together to go neighborhood to neighborhood to check on people.

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Factories, construction camps and areas, Talad Markets, and wherever any large groups may gather.  Add in the fact that people then travel and continue the covid spread into homes and communities as has been happening.  I wonder what the true number is of folks not seeking medical care.  It is enough of a concern here in Bangkok that it has already been discussed and brought forth at the government level.  I will be waiting for the BMA to put squads together to go neighborhood to neighborhood to check on people.

 

I'm sure you're right.  Most cases still seem to be asymptomatic so I don't blame them for not seeking medical care, if it will result in incarceration in a "field hospital"!

4 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Opening up?  Most things are open, at least here in Bangkok they are.  The only things still firmly closed are parks, pools and schools (and obviously bars & clubs).

I am talking about keeping bars and clubs closed. Parks not so much. Lot of people seem to want the pubs open.

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

What I was referring to was the stats from ourworldindata charts are only up until the 29th May so we need to wait another 2 days for these figures to catch up and be reflected in the chart

Yes I get caught out with some off the UK data which is not current...

Patients admitted

Latest data provided on 25 May 2021

Daily

133

Last 7 days

870

 164 (23.2%)Change from previous 7 days (12 May 2021 – 18 May 2021)

---

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

At this point, any increase at all that is sustained would make opening up again anytime soon problematic.  But, a lot depends on where these new cases are located. If there is a cluster of 1,000 in a factory in Udon Thani, that’s a manageable issue, but if most of the new cases are in the greater Bangkok area, that’s going to mean that hotspots are getting out of control.

If it is a cluster in a factory then you would need to also believe that the surrounding area is rife with cases to.  It doesn't just jump from factory to factory.  The workers inside do not all live on the grounds and they do travel outside to shop and take care of business.  Nice try to believe it just stays put inside.

2 hours ago, AndyFoxy said:

But....but.....some forum members said the numbers are stable or going down. How could this be?

 

I am not one of those people you mention but I believe it reveals more about yourself that during a serious event, your primary instinct is to crow ‘I told you so’.

 

For those interested in numbers regarding the weekly average you can type the following link ( hope this is allowed)

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/thailand/

 

If you need to check another country just replace thailand wit that country

13 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

What's the 7-day rolling average?   Hopefully someone statistically-minded will post it.  I doubt it will show the exponential increase that some feared.  

In all seriousness, what's your angle? Why do you spend so much time ignoring reality or just finding the tiniest shred of "at least..." to latch on to?

 

Earlier this week, after two days of the numbers dropping from a record high, you were digging in on "the numbers are going down!" when we all knew that a brief drop of ANNOUNCED cases from the record high was completely inconsequential in the long run

 

And no surprise, we're at a record high of ANNOUNCED cases just a few days later, and instead you harp on the semantics of "it's not exponential"

 

I completely get wanting to maintain some sort of optimism, but choosing to do it in a public forum while completely ignoring science (and quite frankly, reality), and knowingly making these blatantly wrong assertions to people is just so freaking ridiculous

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Previous to today, the numbers were in a stable range. You can tell by all the comments from people who said the numbers were fake.

Yesterday: 4528. Sat:4803. Fri: 3759: Today:5483. You're saying that 3759 up to 4803 and then down a bit to 4528 is stable. Fri to Sat went up by over a thousand or around 33%. You call this stabe?
 

8 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

That would be fantastic news!   We had an email from my son's school to this effect, but they said official confirmation was still being waited for.

That's the information we had from the GF's daughters school, and then the Channel 32 news also had a quick story on it as they showed families shopping for school uniforms.

24 minutes ago, club said:

I see where they are pushing the one jab nonsense.  

 

Wow, have they been telling the public that?  Where is this "Thai people think one jab is enough" idea coming from?

15 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just heard news that schools here in Bangkok will be opening up on the 14th, so in 2 weeks.  Someone please correct me if I am wrong.  

I think this will be pushed out again to 1st Jul. for greater BKK. It will be up to individual provinces elsewhere. We'll have to wait and see. Who kows with this mob.

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

If it is a cluster in a factory then you would need to also believe that the surrounding area is rife with cases to.  It doesn't just jump from factory to factory.  The workers inside do not all live on the grounds and they do travel outside to shop and take care of business.  Nice try to believe it just stays put inside.

Exactly. The cluster could also have started at the local 7/11.

8 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Yesterday: 4528. Sat:4803. Fri: 3759: Today:5483. You're saying that 3759 up to 4803 and then down a bit to 4528 is stable. Fri to Sat went up by over a thousand or around 33%. You call this stabe?
 

The Doomsayers add in or subtract the prison numbers at their convenience. 

24 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The numbers were stable until today. Let’s see what happened to cause the spike.

Take a look at the 7 day rolling average chart since 1st April posted just above Danders. Although there have been days where cases haven’t risen, or even fallen, the trend since 1st April isn’t anywhere near the definition of stable.

 

that’s why 7 day rolling averages are quite useful. They tend to smooth out some of the daily “noise” caused by inadequacies in the reporting system.

19 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Why would anything to do with a global pandemic be "good news"?  It's all bad, but at least not as bad as some people feared.  Hopefully the spike can be attributed to the factory outbreaks and they can be contained.   

Reported this morning on our local village broadcast of 6 cases and 3 deaths in Patiew that's a cases fatality rate of 50% do you believe those numbers?I know I don't.People in Isaan can't afford to take time off to get tested let alone spend 2 weeks locked up if you hope the virus somehow prefers to contain itself to factory outbreaks that would be weird just look at the millions of people movements in and out of Bangkok since songkran.If you think the people with guns running the country at the moment are in anyway trustworthy then your gullible glasses are working just fine.If I'm convicted of heroin smuggling in Oz that's good enough to stop me getting a Thai visa but not good enough to stop people from being ministers of Parliament here.

8 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

I'm sure you're right.  Most cases still seem to be asymptomatic so I don't blame them for not seeking medical care, if it will result in incarceration in a "field hospital"!

and more important they are infectious, better to test them and tell them to stay at home but of course they don't have a system like that in place 

Just now, Danderman123 said:

The Doomsayers add in or subtract the prison numbers at their convenience. 

Well the authorities separate them for a reason....but the  numbers keep coming in and need to be incorporated as part of the overall issue. 

4 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

 

Wow, have they been telling the public that?  Where is this "Thai people think one jab is enough" idea coming from?

The government should be pushing back on <deleted> like this . Unless they agree with it

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Reported this morning on our local village broadcast of 6 cases and 3 deaths in Patiew that's a cases fatality rate of 50% do you believe those numbers?I know I don't.People in Isaan can't afford to take time off to get tested let alone spend 2 weeks locked up if you hope the virus somehow prefers to contain itself to factory outbreaks that would be weird just look at the millions of people movements in and out of Bangkok since songkran.If you think the people with guns running the country at the moment are in anyway trustworthy then your gullible glasses are working just fine.If I'm convicted of heroin smuggling in Oz that's good enough to stop me getting a Thai visa but not good enough to stop people from being ministers of Parliament here.

I presume those are cumulative numbers for your village. 

20 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Why would anything to do with a global pandemic be "good news"?  It's all bad, but at least not as bad as some people feared.  Hopefully the spike can be attributed to the factory outbreaks and they can be contained.   

Good news in a pandemic is when community transmission and deaths start to consistently fall. Great news in when there is little to no community transmission and zero deaths. This is not case here. Just the opposite.

5 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

 

Wow, have they been telling the public that?  Where is this "Thai people think one jab is enough" idea coming from?

Well it starts with the government. They are the people I have seen emphasizing “vaccinations” when in reality referring to just the first jab. The governor in Phuket did the same when claiming that 50% of the island is vaccinated.

 

They want to be able to proclaim what a great job they are doing on vaccinations. A short cut to being able to do that is to focus on the first jab and call it a “vaccination”. The second jab part of the process gets quietly forgotten about.

 

it worries me to be honest. Extrapolating out 3 months and both population and government will have convinced themselves they are on the path to herd immunity based off one jab only.

3 minutes ago, club said:

The government should be pushing back on <deleted> like this . Unless they agree with it

They are promoting it!

4 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

 

Wow, have they been telling the public that?  Where is this "Thai people think one jab is enough" idea coming from?

perhaps telling the people rather than asking them in a poll would be a better idea but then that would be admitting to the colossal government failure and they wouldn't want to do that would they

 

- oh you mean I need another jab to be fully vaccinated 

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The Doomsayers add in or subtract the prison numbers at their convenience. 

Cases are cases Sir, and they do spread even from the prisons.  Nice you believe everything is stable.

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Cases are cases Sir, and they do spread even from the prisons.  Nice you believe everything is stable.

The funny thing is, even turning the 7 day rolling average  graph upside down, it still doesn’t show a stable trend. ????

Just now, Danderman123 said:

The Doomsayers add in or subtract the prison numbers at their convenience. 

You honestly seem like an intelligent person, which makes it that much more insane how every single day you miss the patently obvious point of what us "doomsayers" are saying

 

None of us have said that it's going to be like walking dead on the streets, or like the scenes in India (which you keep implying that we're saying). Our entire point has been and is that there's absolutely zero chance for even the slightest semblance of normalcy in the city / country with how things were handled once the Thong Lor cluster formed, how it's been handled in the country since, and how it's being handled moving forward (in every single aspect)

 

Yet every single day you come in here with some sort of egregious spin on the situation while also completely changing what we've been saying, to try to give your ridiculous spin spin more credibility

 

But I guess if being that wrong and that disingenuous to a bunch of people on the internet is what helps you cope, then you do you my guy

20 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The Doomsayers add in or subtract the prison numbers at their convenience. 

Complete and utter nonsence. For the most part community positives are higher than prison positives and at the end of the day the both numbers are reflected as a single number that represents the total detected positive infections within Thailand.

7 minutes ago, smedly said:

perhaps telling the people rather than asking them in a poll would be a better idea but then that would be admitting to the colossal government failure and they wouldn't want to do that would they

 

- oh you mean I need another jab to be fully vaccinated 

yep