Just now, Danderman123 said:

Once the Delta variant arrived, everything changed, and the Doom and Gloomers are taking credit for predicting it was coming. 

They must be cocker-hoop so many are about to suffer...............Doom and Gloomers need to be listened to more often.....it is how you avoid disasters like that about to befall Thailand.

Hey! Newbie here. Just popped in to ask if it's the apocalypse yet. I keep reading on here that it'll happen but am just wondering how I'll know when it has arrived. Thanks!

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Again, before the Delta variant arrived, the Doom and Gloomers were looking at flat levels of new cases, and claiming that things were going to get real bad. I asked what they meant by that, and they declined to give specifics. Brian refused to make predictions, but said that 2,000 cases a day would lead to much suffering. 

 

I happened to remember a poster claiming that 10,000 cases were coming, but was challenged if any Doom and Gloomers ever said that. 

 

Once the Delta variant arrived, everything changed, and the Doom and Gloomers are taking credit for predicting it was coming. 

You are still denying it but i knew once delta was in Inda that it would come to Thailand. There was no reason for it not too. 

 

There was no prediction needed it was going to come just like every other new variant that is highly transmissible. Your assuming they based it on the current situation. I explained to you before that is the trap you as a data analist fall into. You forget to take into account future changes. Others did not they might not have specifically mentioned the Delta variant but I have read people talking about it long before it arrived here. You can look back and find it.

19 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Looks like covid is coming home

....to roost with the roosters & chickens the families will be butchering to eat instead of using for sport.....soon to be no more birds or bugs to be found in rural issan......dinner is served, gotta have that ant salad.....

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

The numbers have probably been massaged, and they've done it before in these situations. There's a big meeting of the CCSA today to decide on (unpopular with many, but popular with others) measures like the inter-provincial travel ban and closure of non-essential shops. The decision's already been made by you-know-who, so to make it more difficult to argue against the new restrictions they bump up the daily numbers. You know how it will go at the press conference later today:

 

CCSA spokesman: We regret that we must introduce more restrictions on your lives.

Some members of the public: Booo! That's terrible, How dare  you?

CCSA spokesman: But you saw that we had almost 10,000 new cases today, what else can we do?

Some members of the public: I guess he does have a point there....

So we can expect a big drop in reported case numbers from tomorrow that show the measures are working?

I like Thailand and the people and hope they will come out of this for the good.I am not  health expert by no means but as we experienced in Canada a complete lock down for a couple of months is the only way to tackle the virus with only the necessary grocery stores open and masking and social distancing and strict gathering numbers imposed.Then test and high vaccination rates.Good luck to all and hope tourism will return soon.

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Please, list the other countries that would disagree with my statement that Sinovac is very effective in lowering hospitalizatons and death in the case of Alpha. In fact, virtually every country that has reported on Sinovac's performance against the every variant on which studies have been made, shows that it is very effective against hospitalization and death. Stop spreading falsehoods.

Here you go, and you welcome

Indonesia

Uruguay

Costa Rica

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/06/17/chinas-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries/?sh=204f8c5a1444

 

Last Friday, a major Hong Kong study also found that recipients of the Sinovac jab produced significantly lower levels of antibodies than those who were administered with Pfizer, at a 50.7 per cent efficacy rate in comparison to Pfizer’s 95 per cent mark.https://www.thaienquirer.com/28831/delta-variants-danger-and-new-studies-raises-questions-about-thai-vaccine-program/

 

 

PS, Which studies? Sinovac has not released any data and not commenting

 

1 minute ago, robblok said:

You are still denying it but i knew once delta was in Inda that it would come to Thailand. There was no reason for it not too. 

 

There was no prediction needed it was going to come just like every other new variant that is highly transmissible. Your assuming they based it on the current situation. I explained to you before that is the trap you as a data analist fall into. You forget to take into account future changes. Others did not they might not have specifically mentioned the Delta variant but I have read people talking about it long before it arrived here. You can look back and find it.

The only data I am discussing relates to near term future cases, just a few days. 

 

I don't claim to know anything about the path of the epidemic next week or next month. 

 

I am just talking about a tiny bit of data, but for some reason, it triggers some people. 

21 minutes ago, robblok said:

does that mena the government now has to pay out to companies ? or is it every man for himself.

 

I live in BKK not so happy about a curfew though. Not for me but for the GF no more evenings alone for me 55555

 

I dont go out much anyway.

It means government is broke and Prayut thinks his 250 000 baht per month salary will somehow help.

 

It also means government will make a promise to help and pay but as history shown will not or if lucky will pay 1/3 of minimum wage to 1/3 of registered work force

Just now, The Cipher said:

Hey! Newbie here. Just popped in to ask if it's the apocalypse yet. I keep reading on here that it'll happen but am just wondering how I'll know when it has arrived. Thanks!

It has arrived, people dying at home waiting for beds to become free is pretty apocalyptical to me. The apocalypses people are talking about is the failure of the health system with ever increasing death rates. The health system is not build for these kind of numbers so IF this keeps up then it will only get worse. I will wait to see what tomorrows numbers are. I mean we have anomolies before. I think it will go on rising but rather wait a bit before making a firm statement                              

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

 

 

I happened to remember a poster claiming that 10,000 cases were coming, but was challenged if any Doom and Gloomers ever said that. 

 

Must have been back in early April when Dr Sophon Iamsirithaworn predicted More than 28,000 people could be infected by COVID-19 per day, or Dr Yong predicting 10,000 a day or The Public Health Ministry predicting over 9,000 a day. Those doom mongers you mean?

Multiple off topic and troll posts have been removed

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Please read a book about the mechanics of evolution of viruses. 

If you do, you'll see that hospital rooms and occupancy is not a driving factor (independent variable) for increasing cases. Therefore, occupancy has no predictive power. You are just looking at the rise in cases and guessing.

 

A bit like looking at clouds reflected in a bucket of water and saying it will rain. The bucket is useless as a predictor of future rain.

6 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Hey! Newbie here. Just popped in to ask if it's the apocalypse yet. I keep reading on here that it'll happen but am just wondering how I'll know when it has arrived. Thanks!

Lockdowns, or a semi lockdown is in the works starting in the AM, can you please give us a statistical breakdown of how many may flee the areas and head to the hills and whether or not the percentage of beds in use will decline, waiting with baited breath for your response......

25 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

14 days will do nothing. Right now there are people infected who don't know it and are infecting others. 14 days will not break the cycle. There are just to many infected people. 

Of course it won't.    Saying 2 weeks has turned into standard practice ("circuit breaker klaxon") as to be honest and say the actual amount of lockdown will need to be 4-6 months will cause significant mental distress, especially when there is no plan or any indication or desire to compensate those businesses are affected by this and those employed by those businesses.    It will be 2 weeks, followed by another 2 weeks, followed by just another 4 weeks to get over the line, followed by just another 4 weeks, followed by "we've got this far so let's just do another push" and so on and so on.   Standard covid psychological trickery.   

38 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

BREAKING! New semi lockdown in Metro Bangkok proposed to start Saturday, lasting 14 days first. Leaving home only for necessary travel & "curfew" imposed 10pm to 4am. Prayut will forego 3 months of salary to help govt.

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1413349272133672963

 

His monthly salary is about $3,800, times 3 equals about $11,500 then

 

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1413360532522823682

 

1 minute ago, James105 said:

Of course it won't.    Saying 2 weeks has turned into standard practice ("circuit breaker klaxon") as to be honest and say the actual amount of lockdown will need to be 4-6 months will cause significant mental distress, especially when there is no plan or any indication or desire to compensate those businesses are affected by this and those employed by those businesses.    It will be 2 weeks, followed by another 2 weeks, followed by just another 4 weeks to get over the line, followed by just another 4 weeks, followed by "we've got this far so let's just do another push" and so on and so on.   Standard covid psychological trickery.   

Remember the good old days 3 months ago when bars were closed for 14 days? 

19 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

You are right of course. Without policy intervention through lockdowns or vaccines, the only option left is natural immunity.

 

it’s the least attractive option but appears to be the path the country is on.

 

I personally think they will get part way through and then realize the enormity of the disaster unfolding and try to switch course. It will be too late and then it will be all about the international community rallying round to help with vaccines.

Risk is, at that point all other countries could be busy re-vaccinating their own population due to a new variant and not bother about helping Thailand.

 

No matter what Thailand is heading for a financially meltdown that will take them many years to overcome. All because they wanted to make money, by producing their own vaccines.

22 minutes ago, rabas said:

Actually, this is not correct. Worldometers has a problem where it shows only the last report which can even be zero. To see a more accurate view, you need to select 'yesterday' or 'weekly'. Thailand is now 17th.   If, comparing new cases/1M population. Thailand would be even higher.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

 

Thanks - you beat me to pointing out the glaring discrepancy in that post.    I have not figured out how to get worldometers to give new cases/1M population, so I did a quick hand calculation from yesterday ... albeith I only went part way down the list, so likely there are still more countries (than those I listed) with more cases per 1-million than Thailand.  I think we agree, that we are saddened to see Thailand's totals and we would like to see immediate action to address the situation in Thailand .... however its better to post accurate information. 

 

This is my hand calculation (it may have some errors) from 1 day ago, where I have  " Country (population) #-new-cases = #-new cases/million:

Tunesia (11,944,258) 8,315 = 696/million
UK (68,248,738) 32,551 = 477/million
South Africa (60,067,997) 22,910 = 381/million
Spain (46,773,217) 17,317 = 370/million
Costa Rica (5,141,392) 1,847 = 359/million
Cuba (11,319,575) 3,819 = 337/million
Portugal (10,166,418) 3,269 = 321/million
Netherlands (17,173,461) 5,431 = 316/million
Iran (85,084,543) 23,391= 275/million
Malaysia (32,787,057) 8,868 = 270/million
Colombia (51,433,858) 13,275 = 258/million
Brazil (214,095,684) 53,749 = 251/million
Iraq (41,136,639) 9,189 = 223/million
Greece (10,371,165) 2,061 = 198/million
Belgium (11,640,937) 1,990 = 171/million
Russia (145,998,175) 24,818 = 170/million
Zimbabwe (15,082,514) 2,156 = 143/million
Indonesia (276,462,011) 38,391 = 139/million
Thailand (69,978,234) 7,058 = 100.86/million
 

Again, there may be more countries with higher new cases/million than Thailand (yesterday) as I did not go through the entire country list.  And I note today that Thailand has a couple of thousand more cases, so the above will clearly change, as this is all very dynamic.

 

This global pandemic is quite devastating.

4 minutes ago, BestB said:

Remember the good old days 3 months ago when bars were closed for 14 days? 

Yes I do.   It's brutal to those affected by this.   The poor girl who owns a bar near me is always convinced that she will be allowed to open her bar "next month", and every month is devastated all over again when "next month" never actually comes to pass.    

11 minutes ago, BestB said:

Here you go, and you welcome

Indonesia

Uruguay

Costa Rica

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/06/17/chinas-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries/?sh=204f8c5a1444

 

Last Friday, a major Hong Kong study also found that recipients of the Sinovac jab produced significantly lower levels of antibodies than those who were administered with Pfizer, at a 50.7 per cent efficacy rate in comparison to Pfizer’s 95 per cent mark.https://www.thaienquirer.com/28831/delta-variants-danger-and-new-studies-raises-questions-about-thai-vaccine-program/

 

 

PS, Which studies? Sinovac has not released any data and not commenting

 

The countries you listed all provided real world studies data, except Costa Rica which doesn't use Sinovac. All confirmed the vaccine is highly effective preventing hospitalization and death.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/sinovac-pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccines-prove-highly-effective-uruguay-2021-06-08/

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/china-made-vaccine-found-inferior-to-pfizer-shot-in-chile-study

 

	Covid-19	Hospitalization	ICU admission	Death
CoronaVac	65.9%	87.5%	90.3%	86.3%
Pfizer-BioNTech	92.6%	95.1%	96.2%	91.0%

 

This thread is about the covid cases in Thailand today,  no need to inject vaccine merits discussion and smearing here.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Completely out of control. No way back now. Even a month full and strict lockdown may have little impact. This virus is transmitted first by air and second on surfaces. I'm not sure the idiots at the top realise this and fairly sure many Thais don't. I am wearing two masks. This is unravelling very fast. 

Malaysia went into a two week national lockdown on 1st June when daily rates were up around 8000 and rising. Rates started to fall so they extended it by two more weeks. Around the time they stated that rates would need to fall below 4000/day before there would be any easing of the restrictions, the rates started going back up. After a month it was the same as when they started. Now there are more stringent lockdowns and closures in the KL and Selangor hot spots.

 

The Malaysian lockdown appears to be more strictly enforced than anything I witnessed in Thailand so I don't see a repeat of last April's lockdown doing Thailand any good. The new variant is spreading fast in an unvaccinated population.

 

There's also the rather worrying idea that the government's slow-walked announcement of the Bangkok construction site closures was primarily to shift the virus load out of Bangkok and save their asses.

 

 

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Camping out in the pouring rain last night to get tested this morning.

 

There’s something seriously wrong with the system when people feel the need to queue up all night in the rain in order to get a free Covid-19 test. Imagine the number of cases we would have if mass testing was freely available. Something urgently needs to be done about this.

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1413273823449796611

 

Many people are camping out overnight hoping to get a covid test at Wat Phra Sri Mahathat in the morning. Some are sitting in the rain because there’s not enough shelters. The government is being criticised for making it difficult to get tested.

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413187011238711296

 

In the UK, in the hot spots in England's northwest, the army have been mobilized twice: first to assist with the surge testing and again with surge vaccination programs.

 

Meanwhile in Thailand, their army has been vaccinated.

 

The role of the UK's armed forces in protecting the nation is a low-key and unstated given whereas in Thailand, they are always crowing about how they are here to look after and protect the people.

26 minutes ago, rabas said:

Actually, this is not correct. Worldometers has a problem where it shows only the last report which can even be zero. To see a more accurate view, you need to select 'yesterday' or 'weekly'. Thailand is now 17th.   If, comparing new cases/1M population. Thailand would be even higher.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

imho cases per million is a better yardstick as absolute cases as big countries will always have more in absolute numbers. Just my opinion.

2 minutes ago, gearbox said:

The countries you listed all provided real world studies data, except Costa Rica which doesn't use Sinovac. All confirmed the vaccine is highly effective preventing hospitalization and death.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/sinovac-pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccines-prove-highly-effective-uruguay-2021-06-08/

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/china-made-vaccine-found-inferior-to-pfizer-shot-in-chile-study

 

	Covid-19	Hospitalization	ICU admission	Death
CoronaVac	65.9%	87.5%	90.3%	86.3%
Pfizer-BioNTech	92.6%	95.1%	96.2%	91.0%

 

This thread is about the covid cases in Thailand today,  no need to inject vaccine merits discussion and smearing here.

 

 

 

Really, 51% is highly effective? while both vaccines have been granted emergency authorization by the World Health Organization, Sinovac’s 51% efficacy only just exceeds the WHO’s 50% efficacy threshold for Covid-19 vaccines and a lack of public clinical data to back up manufacturers’ often inconsistent claims hampers public acceptance of the vaccine. 

 

All confirmed it? really? Uruguay, in the first release of real world data on Sinovac’s efficacy Tuesday, said the vaccine was over 90% effective at preventing ICU admissions and deaths, as well as 61% effective at preventing infections. Despite having vaccinated more people than almost any other country (it has given over 60% of its population at least one shot, higher than the U.S.), Uruguay is dealing with one of the highest Covid-19 death rates in the world.

 

So this must be false then? With no data available, the effectiveness of Sinovac against new Covid-19 variants is unknown. What is known of other vaccines against the Delta variant is a marked drop in protection with only one dose and a more limited drop once fully immunized. Even a small drop in efficacy would take Sinovac’s shot below the WHO threshold. 

5 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Thanks - you beat me to pointing out the glaring discrepancy in that post.    I have not figured out how to get worldometers to give new cases/1M population, so I did a quick hand calculation from yesterday ... albeith I only went part way down the list, so likely there are still more countries (than those I listed) with more cases per 1-million than Thailand.  I think we agree, that we are saddened to see Thailand's totals and we would like to see immediate action to address the situation in Thailand .... however its better to post accurate information. 

 

This is my hand calculation (it may have some errors) from 1 day ago, where I have  " Country (population) #-new-cases = #-new cases/million:

Tunesia (11,944,258) 8,315 = 696/million
UK (68,248,738) 32,551 = 477/million
South Africa (60,067,997) 22,910 = 381/million
Spain (46,773,217) 17,317 = 370/million
Costa Rica (5,141,392) 1,847 = 359/million
Cuba (11,319,575) 3,819 = 337/million
Portugal (10,166,418) 3,269 = 321/million
Netherlands (17,173,461) 5,431 = 316/million
Iran (85,084,543) 23,391= 275/million
Malaysia (32,787,057) 8,868 = 270/million
Colombia (51,433,858) 13,275 = 258/million
Brazil (214,095,684) 53,749 = 251/million
Iraq (41,136,639) 9,189 = 223/million
Greece (10,371,165) 2,061 = 198/million
Belgium (11,640,937) 1,990 = 171/million
Russia (145,998,175) 24,818 = 170/million
Zimbabwe (15,082,514) 2,156 = 143/million
Indonesia (276,462,011) 38,391 = 139/million
Thailand (69,978,234) 7,058 = 100.86/million
 

Again, there may be more countries with higher new cases/million than Thailand (yesterday) as I did not go through the entire country list.  And I note today that Thailand has a couple of thousand more cases, so the above will clearly change, as this is all very dynamic.

 

This global pandemic is quite devastating.

some German authority said that cases per million is not relevant, people should start looking at the amount of cases that are hosptialised per day, remember someone who has been vaccinated might have a positive test, but will not become seriously ill.

Just now, James105 said:

Yes I do.   It's brutal to those affected by this.   The poor girl who owns a bar near me is always convinced that she will be allowed to open her bar "next month", and every month is devastated all over again when "next month" never actually comes to pass.    

 

That's the proof that all those decisions do work, have no effect whatsoever on the virus.

 

Doing always the same thing while expecting for a different outcome, is one the definition of madness. ????

 

The truth is : the virus will die off, at one point (chart with a bell shape). Like it does everywhere else.

58 minutes ago, anchadian said:

[Breaking] The government has announced new lockdown measures. - work from home - no unnecessary travelling except to buy food and healthcare, - asked not to leave the house between 10 pm and 4 am, - shopping malls closed but supermarkets and markets open

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1413349259294822403

 

The lockdown will begin tomorrow and last for 14 days.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1413350833270312960

 

Proposed measures for metro Bangkok just announced: Work from home 100 percent. Malls/non essential closed. Stay home from 10PM to 4AM (not a hard curfew however). Stay home except if needed like going for essential food, hospital, vaccinated. Full details soon.

https://twitter.com/The_PattayaNews/status/1413350567393464324

 

Are these measures country wide or Bangkok Metro only?

26 minutes ago, rabas said:

Actually, this is not correct. Worldometers has a problem where it shows only the last report which can even be zero. To see a more accurate view, you need to select 'yesterday' or 'weekly'. Thailand is now 17th.   If, comparing new cases/1M population. Thailand would be even higher.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

Meanwhile, in other metrics, Thailand is third from the bottom out of 120 nations.

 

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Nikkei-COVID-19-Recovery-Index

19 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Will never happen.

 

Opinion: Thailand’s proposed October reopening needs clarity

 

In mid-June, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha made a speech on national television broadcasting the government’s goal to reopen Thailand within 120 days. 

 

Reopening, needless to say, is a highly desirable goal. Take the Phuket Sandbox, which launched to great fanfare and is being heralded as a small but significant first step in Thailand’s reopening to the outside world. As journalist Matt Hunt wrote, despite deep skepticism elsewhere, Phuket’s residents and business owners are optimistic and happy to contribute to make it work. It represents a lifeline after over a year of darkness: an opportunity to bring back income and jobs. 

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/29628/opinion-thailands-proposed-october-reopening-needs-clarity/

I don’t think Mr Matt Hunt talked to the same thai people that I talk to in Phuket. Far from happy, they are more resigned to a continuation of what state currently exists.

 

if I was to go to Kata or Karon right now, I could take photo after photo of boarded up shop, after boarded up shop. The owners/renters don’t seem optimistic enough about the near future to reopen.

 

that aside, it’s an interesting enough piece, although I disagree that the conversation should be happening now. The scale of the challenge facing Thailand requires that ALL conversation and messaging be focused on resolving it. Talking about pie in the sky reopening in October just clouds an already unfocused response to the virus.

 

it’s also written entirely from the viewpoint of whether Thailand wants to let or should let international tourists into the country. It does not address the issue of whether the international traveler will want to or should, come to Thailand.

 

October isn’t that far away, I sincerely doubt that the current situation will be better by then and I fear it could be much worse. THAT possibility isn’t really addressed in the article either.

3 minutes ago, beano2274 said:

some German authority said that cases per million is not relevant, people should start looking at the amount of cases that are hosptialised per day, remember someone who has been vaccinated might have a positive test, but will not become seriously ill.

I won't disagree with that assessment, but I will say I think if we had that data, we would also be posting that.   

 

We do the best we can with the data we have.    I think in this case, the data we do have, is better than no data - as wrong information has been posted (such as someone on this thread posting Thailand #2 in # of cases world wide).