Pattaya: Dead as a Dodo

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Doesn't take long.... got a pic today of a pretty full pub in NE England taken Friday night. 

 

How many in the pub flew to England to be there?  

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

Time frame I dunno like anyone but in Mar 2020 I said businesses should throw in the towel save money rather than a cash burn death, it would have saved them

 

I said the same myself, although not as early as March 2020.  

 

That cash burn, as you describe it, will continue all the way until the next lease and / or key money is due, and before the tourists will be coming back in any numbers.  

 

It's a lose lose.  If you stay in the game, you lose, and if you walk away from your lease, you lose.  

 

Those still in the game are gambling on when Pattaya can get back to profitability.  

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Leaver

[BritManToo]

7 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Those still in the game are gambling on when Pattaya can get back to profitability.

I'm betting at least 3-5 years or more before significant tourism starts again. I've got this horrible feeling borders will be closed/restricted and international flights expensive for the rest of my life.

Edited July 24, 2021 by BritManToo

[sucit]

The real problem is the covid restrictions should have been started when infections started, not one year beforehand. 

[sucit]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I'm betting at least 3-5 years or more before significant tourism starts again.

Right now girls in pattaya are figuring out things like onlyfans. Maybe pattaya makes a comeback, but I don’t think it will be a full comeback. Ever. And 100% all the hottest girls are going to be “digital only”. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by sucit

[tomyami]

3 minutes ago, sucit said:

Right now girls in pattaya are figuring out things like onlyfans. Maybe pattaya makes a comeback, but I don’t think it will be a full comeback. Ever. And 100% all the hottest girls are going to be “digital only”. 

They didnt have competition when they worked pattaya they have on onlyfans and chaturbate, so good luck with that where the standard is high

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I'm betting at least 3-5 years or more before significant tourism starts again. I've got this horrible feeling borders will be closed/restricted and international flights expensive for the rest of my life.

 

I tend to agree with you. 

 

I would put it at 2 years at best, 5 years worse case scenario.  Add that to the current 18 months, and leases will be coming up for renewal well before any businesses here can make a profit, if their current contract remains in place.

 

It will be interesting to see what the Thai landlords do.

[pissedoff2am]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

. I've got this horrible feeling borders will be closed/restricted and international flights expensive for the rest of my life.

I agree, and I think the longer they keep the international travel shutdown the easier it will be to KEEP it shutdown. Watch the narrative shift to climate crisis dictates that the days of just hopping on a flight to the other side of the world are over. $20 flights on Air Asia, gone.

 

In one sense the mass cheap air travel ruined a lot of things and was likely not sustainable but this worldwide travel lockdown has a very real possibility of becoming permanent.

[Jumbo1968]

These people know some thing we don’t ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=5624868c3ecd

[newnative]

37 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

These people know some thing we don’t ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=5624868c3ecd

Interesting article.  Thanks for sharing it. 

[sezze]

33 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

These people know some thing we don’t ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=5624868c3ecd

It is a solid gamble imho , since i believe tourism will come back . People certainly can stay near their own country for a while but as soon as the situation gets safer and safer ( won't ever be gone ) restrictions will be lifted ( to a extend , like vaccination prove will stay ) , and people will again go to places all around the world . Thailand was strong in tourism before and given the chance it will be strong after . There will always be doom and gloom , like Spain tourism which was supposed to be done and over 20y ago , is still going strong . You will see higher and lower periods , but as long as the facilities are there , people will go . Thailand got a name for easy long distance , different culture but very inviting country and it will be attracting people as long as i live .

[Leaver]

41 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:

These people know some thing we don’t ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=5624868c3ecd

 

Interesting article.  

 

It's doesn't mention impending protests and political instability, post covid.   It was happening pre covid, and due to this government's dismal performance during the pandemic, I can only see protestor numbers swelling, post covid.   

 

Of course, these are the Thai elite that back the establishment, but it could really kick off here post covid, which would have a negative impact on tourism until peace and stability is restored.  

 

Interesting times ahead for Thailand.  

[Leaver]

25 minutes ago, sezze said:

It is a solid gamble imho , since i believe tourism will come back . People certainly can stay near their own country for a while but as soon as the situation gets safer and safer ( won't ever be gone ) restrictions will be lifted ( to a extend , like vaccination prove will stay ) , and people will again go to places all around the world . Thailand was strong in tourism before and given the chance it will be strong after . There will always be doom and gloom , like Spain tourism which was supposed to be done and over 20y ago , is still going strong . You will see higher and lower periods , but as long as the facilities are there , people will go . Thailand got a name for easy long distance , different culture but very inviting country and it will be attracting people as long as i live .

 

There is no doubt tourists will come back to Thailand after covid, but if we look at the tourist demographics before covid, we can see the vast majority were cheap package holiday tourists from developing nations, mainly China, India, and to some degree, Russia.   

 

The numbers from these demographics look great, but the revenue from them does not look so great, when compared to the western tourism market that Thailand enjoyed for so long.

 

Then, there is the "zero baht tourism" issue that never really went away.  Chinese owned hotels, buses, boats, restaurants etc, for Chinese tourists.  Some minimum wage employment is created for Thai's, but profits are made and repatriated by Chinese companies.  

 

In relation to Pattaya, there was a declining western tourism market here before covid.  The high season of 2019 was the lowest I have ever seen here.  

 

If Thai tourism was on a stock exchange, I wouldn't be buying any shares in it, and that was pre covid, let alone post covid.

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Leaver

[shdmn]

3 hours ago, sucit said:

Right now girls in pattaya are figuring out things like onlyfans. Maybe pattaya makes a comeback, but I don’t think it will be a full comeback. Ever. And 100% all the hottest girls are going to be “digital only”. 

So you are predicting the worlds oldest profession is no more, in Pattaya of all places?  Yea ok, whatever.  ????

 

Also, "100%"???  Yea ok, whatever x2.  ????

Edited July 24, 2021 by shdmn

[Leaver]

47 minutes ago, shdmn said:

So you are predicting the worlds oldest profession is no more, in Pattaya of all places?  Yea ok, whatever.  ????

 

Also, "100%"???  Yea ok, whatever x2.  ????

 

I see the member's point.  

 

It's a waste of time for attractive girls to be sitting in a bar, or dancing on a stage for hours, scrounging around for lady drinks and short times, when they can be doing their own shows online for paying customers, across three different time zones.  

 

The girl can even arrange to meet the high online payers when they come to Thailand for a holiday.  

 

There's also the option to freelance a night or two a week just for fun.  

 

Online meeting with bar girls was gaining in popularity even before covid.  

 

The oldest profession in the world will still be around in Pattaya, just the delivery will be different.  

[Thujone]

6 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I'm betting at least 3-5 years or more before significant tourism starts again. I've got this horrible feeling borders will be closed/restricted and international flights expensive for the rest of my life.

Be happy to have been young years ago.

[newnative]

8 hours ago, sezze said:

It is a solid gamble imho , since i believe tourism will come back . People certainly can stay near their own country for a while but as soon as the situation gets safer and safer ( won't ever be gone ) restrictions will be lifted ( to a extend , like vaccination prove will stay ) , and people will again go to places all around the world . Thailand was strong in tourism before and given the chance it will be strong after . There will always be doom and gloom , like Spain tourism which was supposed to be done and over 20y ago , is still going strong . You will see higher and lower periods , but as long as the facilities are there , people will go . Thailand got a name for easy long distance , different culture but very inviting country and it will be attracting people as long as i live .

    Nicely written and I totally agree.  My partner and I can't wait to get traveling internationally again; and, it's the same for my numerous siblings.  We all feel like we have been sitting in a plane on the tarmac for a couple years now and we can't wait to finally take off and fly somewhere to see a place we haven't been to--and while we are still healthy to do it.  I doubt we are the only ones feeling this way.  

[Henryford]

9 hours ago, Jumbo1968 said:

These people know some thing we don’t ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=5624868c3ecd

If you have plenty of cash now is a great time to be buying up assets at a knock down price, especially land. They stopped making it 4.5 billion years ago.

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

How many in the pub flew to England to be there?  

All of them......

[scubascuba3]

13 hours ago, sucit said:

Right now girls in pattaya are figuring out things like onlyfans. Maybe pattaya makes a comeback, but I don’t think it will be a full comeback. Ever. And 100% all the hottest girls are going to be “digital only”. 

but guys won't pay for "digital only" forever unless total mugs

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

but guys won't pay for "digital only" forever unless total mugs

The organized digital interaction has been quashed I believe.... heard different? 

[Leaver]

8 hours ago, jacko45k said:

All of them......

 

I doubt that.  

[DLock]

I don't know when Pattaya will return to its form "glory", but I do know that you will be wearing Tsingtao singlets with dim sum stains, instead of the usual HP sauce down the front...

 

...and start brushing up on your Chinese language skills and learning how to deal cards and count to 21 if you want a job.

[redwood1]

1 hour ago, DLock said:

I don't know when Pattaya will return to its form "glory", but I do know that you will be wearing Tsingtao singlets with dim sum stains, instead of the usual HP sauce down the front...

 

...and start brushing up on your Chinese language skills and learning how to deal cards and count to 21 if you want a job.

Actually I think Hindi is the language to brush up on........Someone has not been keeping all these all these (way more than is needed) Indian restaurants afloat for many years now for no reason.......Heck even the closed ones are not really closed,they are only hibernating now..........

 

All these Indian Restaurants will be feeding the stampede of Indians who will be arriving here one day.... 

Edited July 25, 2021 by redwood1

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

but guys won't pay for "digital only" forever unless total mugs

 

The digital is only to arrange to meet.  After that, it's business as usual for both parties, minus the mamasan, lady drinks, and bar fines.   It was already happening before covid.  

[thaibeachlovers]

On 7/22/2021 at 11:02 PM, roger101 said:

So a  number  of businesses which catered to 'should we say the more interesting' parts of business suffered.

Given the people that actually owned a lot of those businesses prior to corona, money will probably be no problem to restart such businesses after corona ends.

The real problem may be that the mongers will not return if air fares, insurance, accommodation and, most importantly, the etc becomes significantly more expensive.

[thaibeachlovers]

21 hours ago, newnative said:

    Nicely written and I totally agree.  My partner and I can't wait to get traveling internationally again; and, it's the same for my numerous siblings.  We all feel like we have been sitting in a plane on the tarmac for a couple years now and we can't wait to finally take off and fly somewhere to see a place we haven't been to--and while we are still healthy to do it.  I doubt we are the only ones feeling this way.  

That may be true, but I have a problem believing that there will be enough thinking that Pattaya is a destination of choice to return it to it's previous level of infamy.

Western tourists were IMO already diminishing prior to corona, and if it is flooded with Chinese again that will IMO be a significant deterrence to western tourists.

[Salerno]

6 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

if it is flooded with Chinese again that will IMO be a significant deterrence to western tourists.

Why?

[scubascuba3]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

The digital is only to arrange to meet.  After that, it's business as usual for both parties, minus the mamasan, lady drinks, and bar fines.   It was already happening before covid.  

Yeah yeah thaifriendly etc is very popular but girls still like working somewhere rather than being isolated in a room so i suspect both will work 

[newnative]

49 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That may be true, but I have a problem believing that there will be enough thinking that Pattaya is a destination of choice to return it to it's previous level of infamy.

Western tourists were IMO already diminishing prior to corona, and if it is flooded with Chinese again that will IMO be a significant deterrence to western tourists.

     You and many others posting here tend to be too focused on western tourists.  More than a few times posters have said 2019 was the deadest they have seen Pattaya.  In reality, it was a booming year--as it was for all of Thailand with almost 40 million visitors in 2019.  A poster's local western bar may not have been busy but Pattaya as a whole was.  Comparing 2019 central Pattaya to the current 2021 central Pattaya is staggering. 

     When posters finally focus on something besides western tourists, it's almost solely on Chinese tourists, with occasionally Russian numbers thrown in.  One example, your post I am responding to. Of course, Chinese tourists are the largest--over 10 million in 2019 visited Thailand.  But there were 14 million visitors in 2019 from other Asian countries, not counting Laos, Cambodia, or Burma.  That's a large number, too, and often overlooked.  Put the two together and you're at 24 million and change. I suspect Thailand would be thrilled to get back to that number sometime down the road.