Staggering COVID-19 Statistic: 98% to 99% of Americans Dying are Unvaccinated

[ozimoron]

On this page, we explain why it is essential to look at death rates by vaccination status rather than the absolute number of deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated people. 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

[marcardar]

Just now, ozimoron said:

 If 18,000 die this may, the same proportion, 1 or 2% will be vaccinated.

This is really fascinating logic. I'm curious, if the vaccine lost all of it's efficacy what would the magic percentage be?

[marcardar]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

On this page, we explain why it is essential to look at death rates by vaccination status rather than the absolute number of deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated people. 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

Now you're beginning to get it.

Edited February 1, 2022 by marcardar

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

To follow up, the problem with the statistic is that it was taken at a time when a lot more people were unvaccinated. So naturally the percentage of deaths from the unaccinated was a lot higher since the group was a lot bigger then. Rachelle Walensky noted that a covid case was 14 times more likely to result in the death of unvaccinated person than in a vaccinated one. That's the important figure. As you have pointed out, that 98-99 percent figure was transitory and can't possibly be the same now.

The other factor that cannot be overlooked on this flexible 98-99 percent figure is vaccine waning, I know the T and B cells still kick in to reduce risk however waning is a problem. Then we also need to know what is classed as fully vaccinated as most countries are now saying this is three jabs.

[placeholder]

No, not so. For that to be the case somehow the mortality rate of the unvaccinated would have to rise to compensate for their declining total number.

For example if the population is 50 percent vaccinated and 50 percent unvaccinated let's say that the unvaccinated provide 99 percent of the deaths. For the sake of argument, lets say that amounts to 9900, with the vaccinated proving 100 deaths. Now if the number of unvaccinated falls to 25 percent, to keep its contribution at 9900 deaths, its mortality rate would have to double. Why would it double? Does this cohort somehow know that because it's only half the size it once was, then it has to double its death rate to still contribute 9900 deaths? How would that work?

[ozimoron]

5 minutes ago, marcardar said:

This is really fascinating logic. I'm curious, if the vaccine lost all of it's efficacy what would the magic percentage be?

I stated earlier that the data will remain constant assuming vaccine efficacy and virus severity remain constant. Statistics relies on control assumptions and produces new results if any of the controls change.

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The other factor that cannot be overlooked on this flexible 98-99 percent figure is vaccine waning, I know the T and B cells still kick in to reduce risk however waning is a problem. Then we also need to know what is classed as fully vaccinated as most countries are now saying this is three jabs.

There is little or no evidence that vaccines are waning in respect to serious illness as yet. There is evidence only in relation to infections. The only possible outcome for more vaccinations (3 instead of two) is even less deaths for the vaccinated cohort.

Edited February 1, 2022 by ozimoron

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

There is little or no evidence that vaccines are waning in respect to serious illness as yet. There is evidence only in relation to infections. The only possible outcome for more vaccinations (2 instead of three) is even less deaths for the vaccinated cohort.

Plenty of evidence for that actually, you just need to look at how Israel reduced its death rates and hospitalizations in July last year with the introduction of booster shots

[Chomper Higgot]

7 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

My favorite chapter in stat class was: How to lie with statistics. LOL

Usually the only thing most people remember about a statistics class, if that is they were ever in one.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Plenty of evidence for that actually, you just need to look at how Israel reduced its death rates and hospitalizations in July last year with the introduction of booster shots

How is that evidence that the vaccine is waning? It is evidence that boosters provide greater protection.

[Chomper Higgot]

6 hours ago, scorecard said:

I've had students who claim it's so easy to create fake statistics, often using an example of data/stats to prove due diligence (DD) items. 

 

Truth is that part of the role of the staff member/team/consultant involved in handling/completing the due diligence to ensure that the dats used is checked and 100% proven to be correct.

 

In one case study the steam team said 'the insurance (massive policy/massive premium) is all correct and real because we saw the receipt from the insurance company.

 

My response 'did you visit the insurance company and ask for a new certified receipt signed by a snr. person? If not then I don't accept that you completed a complete DD on the insurance. Also, maybe you have a receipt but what are coverage dates? Did you check that? Often the answer is NO. It's all data!

You clearly don’t know a lot about data analysis.

[marcardar]

19 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I stated earlier that the data will remain constant assuming vaccine efficacy and virus severity remain constant. Statistics relies on control assumptions and produces new results if any of the controls change.

I'm not talking about the vaccine becoming less effective, but rather if (in a parallel world) there was a vaccine that was less effective than our one(s).

 

Actually, if your logic was correct, then you would say zero efficacy would lead to 50% of covid deaths unvaccinated.

 

And this exposes the flaw in your logic. Because this will only be true if 50% of the population is unvaccinated.

 

In reality, for a totally ineffective vaccine, the percentage of covid deaths unvaccinated will match exactly that unvaccinated percentage of the population. The graph would be perfect straight line.

 

For a 100% effective vaccine, the percentage of deaths would be 100% unvaccinated

 

For a 90% effective vaccine (like we have now), the graph will bend towards having more unvaccinated amongst the dead.

 

The more effective the vaccine the more the graph bends.

 

But anyway, the only possible way for the percentage unvaccinated to be constant (regardless of vaccine coverage) would be if that constant is 100% (i.e. totally effective vaccine). And we know this is not true because of the 150 vaccinated people who died in May 2021 (in the link).

Edited February 1, 2022 by marcardar

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

How is that evidence that the vaccine is waning? It is evidence that boosters provide greater protection.

You are kidding right, there have been dozens of studies on vaccine waning and the need for a booster even before Omicron

 

 

Israel booster jabs cutting severe Covid even as cases surge: experts

But weeks after the third jab rollout began, the severe case count -- which shot up from more than 70 in late July to 600 by mid-August -- has stabilised, currently standing below 700. Infections also remain very low among the triple jabbed.

Those factors, Barbash said, make it clear that "waning immunity is what caused the fourth wave."

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210915-israel-booster-jabs-cutting-severe-covid-even-as-cases-surge-experts

[ozimoron]

21 minutes ago, marcardar said:

I'm not talking about the vaccine becoming less effective, but rather if (in a parallel world) there was a vaccine that was less effective than our one(s).

 

Actually, if your logic was correct, then you would say zero efficacy would lead to 50% of covid deaths unvaccinated.

 

And this exposes the flaw in your logic. Because this will only be true if 50% of the population is unvaccinated.

 

In reality, for a totally ineffective vaccine, the percentage of covid deaths unvaccinated will match exactly that unvaccinated percentage of the population. The graph would be perfect straight line.

 

For a 100% effective vaccine, the percentage of deaths would be 100% unvaccinated

 

For a 90% effective vaccine (like we have now), the graph will bend towards having more unvaccinated amongst the dead.

 

The more effective the vaccine the more the graph bends.

 

But anyway, the only possible way for the percentage unvaccinated to be constant (regardless of vaccine coverage) would be if that constant is 100% (i.e. totally effective vaccine). And we know this is not true because of the 150 vaccinated people who died in May 2021 (in the link).

The graph will always be a straight line unless something changes over time. So if a vaccine is always 90% effective then the graph will be a straight line. If the vaccine does wane then the percentage of vaccinated among the dead will rise. I don't think that was reflected in the op.

[ozimoron]

22 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You are kidding right, there have been dozens of studies on vaccine waning and the need for a booster even before Omicron

 

 

Israel booster jabs cutting severe Covid even as cases surge: experts

But weeks after the third jab rollout began, the severe case count -- which shot up from more than 70 in late July to 600 by mid-August -- has stabilised, currently standing below 700. Infections also remain very low among the triple jabbed.

Those factors, Barbash said, make it clear that "waning immunity is what caused the fourth wave."

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210915-israel-booster-jabs-cutting-severe-covid-even-as-cases-surge-experts

That quote refers to infections, not severe illness or deaths. It's like groundhog day around here. We keep having to counter the same misinformation day after day.

[pomchop]

Many will spend hours scouring the internet to find some crackpot idiots claiming to dispute the obvious fact that vaccinations save untold numbers of lives and hospitalizations rather than spend 20 mins to go get a shot.  It is truly stupid behavior that has and continues to prolong the covid disruption of lives and economies worldwide.  Just admit you were and are wrong and go get the damn shots.

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

That quote refers to infections, not severe illness or deaths. It's like groundhog day around here. We keep having to counter the same misinformation day after day.

The quote refers to the fourth wave which included deaths and severe cases but then you knew that already as you read the headline.

 

Like I said, dozens of studies that a booster is needed because of vaccine waning and they help reduce deaths and severe cases on this so I'll leave this one here as its just groundhog day with you.

 

Booster Shots Drastically Reduce Delta Variant Hospitalizations And Deaths In Israel

 

"These results show convincingly that the third dose of the vaccine is highly effective against severe COVID-19-related outcomes in different age groups and population subgroups, one week after the third dose,” said senior author Professor Ran Balicer of the Clalit Research Institute in a statement. 

The big question the study cannot answer is whether protection from the booster is more enduring than from the original two doses, which is known to wane after six months. 

 

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/booster-shots-drastically-reduce-delta-hospitalizations-and-deaths-in-israel/

[ozimoron]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The quote refers to the fourth wave which included deaths and severe cases but then you knew that already as you read the headline.

 

Like I said, dozens of studies that a booster is needed because of vaccine waning and they help reduce deaths and severe cases on this so I'll leave this one here as its just groundhog day with you.

 

Booster Shots Drastically Reduce Delta Variant Hospitalizations And Deaths In Israel

 

"These results show convincingly that the third dose of the vaccine is highly effective against severe COVID-19-related outcomes in different age groups and population subgroups, one week after the third dose,” said senior author Professor Ran Balicer of the Clalit Research Institute in a statement. 

The big question the study cannot answer is whether protection from the booster is more enduring than from the original two doses, which is known to wane after six months. 

 

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/booster-shots-drastically-reduce-delta-hospitalizations-and-deaths-in-israel/

The waning of the vaccines in that article does NOT refer to illness and death, only to infections. If you think otherwise, post a quote where it explicitly says so.

Edited February 1, 2022 by ozimoron

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The waning of the vaccines in that article does NOT refer to illness and death, only to infections. If you think otherwise, post a quote where it explicitly says so.

Yes it does however I see reading it you fail to understand so here you are in easy steps from a clearer statement from experts. You could also have had a look at the deaths rates dramatically falling after boosters were deployed in Israel in the fourth wave due to the waning.

 

There have been warnings from doctors and the UK's Health Security Agency that waning immunity is leading to deaths even of people who have had two doses of a Covid vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59260294

 

Real-world data from diagnostic-testing records and hospital databases suggest that this might be the case. In Israel, for example, elderly people who got their shots at the beginning of the year seemed to have almost double the risk of severe illness during a July outbreak compared with similar individuals who were immunized more recently7. As researchers reported this week, older individuals given a third dose of vaccine were less likely to become infected and much less likely to develop severe disease than those who had not received the boosters.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02532-4

Edited February 1, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes it does however I see reading it you fail to understand so here you are in easy steps from a clearer statement from experts. You could also have had a look at the deaths rates dramatically falling after boosters were deployed in Israel in the fourth wave due to the waning.

 

There have been warnings from doctors and the UK's Health Security Agency that waning immunity is leading to deaths even of people who have had two doses of a Covid vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59260294

I asked you to quote from that article

Edited February 1, 2022 by ozimoron

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I asked you to quote from that article.

Goodnight happy reading……..

[Mr Derek]

The article linked in the OP is dated July last year. Why dredge this stuff up again now? Look, you're tearing society apart by waging war against those who have made a choice not to be vaccinated - despite the known risk to themselves - either through stoicism, strong-mindedness, or a well thought-through personal morality which the frail-minded - those who go running to modern medicine for salvation - cannot hope to understand. Kindly cease.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Mr Derek

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

The article linked in the OP is dated July last year. Why dredge this stuff up again now? Look, you're tearing society apart by waging war against those who have made a choice not to be vaccinated - despite the known risk to themselves - either through stoicism, strong-mindedness, or a well thought-through personal morality which the frail-minded - those who go running to modern medicine for salvation - cannot hope to understand. Kindly cease.

 

 

The facts haven't changed. The only ones trying to tear society apart are the anti vaxxers. The majority of us are tired of their shenanigans.

[Credo]

21 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

You just don't get it, do you?  The whole point, for many, of not getting vaccinated, is not to yield to the fear but to choose to rely on the robustness of their own biology and lifestyle. The division emerging is that of Natural Man versus artificial humanoids. The latter no doubt have a better chance of living longer - congratulations on growing a bit older and more wrinkled! It's a Pyrrhic victory as their life is no longer their own but in fealty to pharmaceutical technology. The more you whine and shriek about me not getting vaccinated, the more I'm not going to - precisely because of your whining and shrieking, because I refuse to be running scared like you. Let that sink in. And if I die tomorrow of this wretched virus - bring it on - the weaklings have made the world unlivable anyway and I've had enough of them.

If they are relying on 'the robustness of their own biology and lifestyle', then why are they drinking their own urine, taking hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, zinc and vitamin D?   

 

[LoeiI]

Good ???? Nothing cheers me up more than an anti vaxxer all tubed up trying to catch their last breath saying i wish i'd got the Jab 

Edited February 1, 2022 by LoeiI

[Virt]

9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://news.yahoo.com/low-education-levels-strongly-tied-160100441.html

 

Here is an interesting read, which might surprise some people.

 

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-by-race-ethnicity/

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

The article linked in the OP is dated July last year. Why dredge this stuff up again now? Look, you're tearing society apart by waging war against those who have made a choice not to be vaccinated - despite the known risk to themselves - either through stoicism, strong-mindedness, or a well thought-through personal morality which the frail-minded - those who go running to modern medicine for salvation - cannot hope to understand. Kindly cease.

 

 

The virus is waging a war against the unvaccinated- and is winning.

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

You just don't get it, do you?  The whole point, for many, of not getting vaccinated, is not to yield to the fear but to choose to rely on the robustness of their own biology and lifestyle. The division emerging is that of Natural Man versus artificial humanoids. The latter no doubt have a better chance of living longer - congratulations on growing a bit older and more wrinkled! It's a Pyrrhic victory as their life is no longer their own but in fealty to pharmaceutical technology. The more you whine and shriek about me not getting vaccinated, the more I'm not going to - precisely because of your whining and shrieking, because I refuse to be running scared like you. Let that sink in. And if I die tomorrow of this wretched virus - bring it on - the weaklings have made the world unlivable anyway and I've had enough of them.

You are probably not scared to remain unvaccinated and to infect your loved ones.

[Chomper Higgot]

7 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

The article linked in the OP is dated July last year. Why dredge this stuff up again now? Look, you're tearing society apart by waging war against those who have made a choice not to be vaccinated - despite the known risk to themselves - either through stoicism, strong-mindedness, or a well thought-through personal morality which the frail-minded - those who go running to modern medicine for salvation - cannot hope to understand. Kindly cease.

 

 

Oddly you fail to mention anti vaccine propaganda, misinformation and lies.

[Bkk Brian]

Interesting graphic here on the effectiveness of boosters to reduce hospitalizations in the UK, tweeted by a Senior epidemiologist at UKHSA.

 

"Great thread combining international data (including our VE estimates) to illustrate the importance of boosters to prevent severe disease. This graph is the stand-out for me. Without boosters, the number of patients hospitalised this winter would have exceeded last year's peak."

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1488099972935528450