If war breaks out in Ukraine, what do you think will be the impact on your expat life in Thailand?

[Jingthing]

This NOT a POLITICAL discussion topic. 

This is NOT the place to express pro Russian or pro Ukraine / NATO / Western feelings.

This is NOT the place to make predictions about what will happen there, as in war or no war. etc.

 

The idea of this topic is that a war in Ukraine would represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.

 

So what are your concerns/predictions about the impact on your life here as expats in Thailand (if any) IF this happens?

[EVENKEEL]

Initially the stock market will take a hit so any invested in a retirement plan in the US will have their funds played with.

[ezzra]

Maybe will see many hot Ukrainian women seeking shelter in sunny Thailand, and i'm for one willing to shelter as many as i can...

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Maybe will see many hot Ukrainian women seeking shelter in sunny Thailand, and i'm for one willing to shelter as many as i can...

You may have been flip with that, but yeah there would lots of Ukrainian refugees globally, but any hoping to flee to Thailand would need to go through those difficult Covid era Thai immigration hoops. There is no way Thailand will be accepting them as formal refugees. So really I wouldn't expect a war there to result in a noticeable increase in Ukrainians here.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Jingthing

[MJCM]

My Guess

 

1- Oil and Gas price will rise thus Electricity and Fuel will be more expensive (the FT rate for electricity has already increased)

2- Food prices will rise even further!

 

So economics mainly as you already said!

Edited February 13, 2022 by MJCM

[Kwasaki]

It's just a waiting game as I see it,  from what I hear news wise is price rises on many things, oil for one I  guess.  

I don't think anyone can predict what will happen until it happens.

[Stocky]

Very little.

[MJCM]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

It's just a waiting game as I see it,  from what I hear news wise is price rises on many things, oil for one I  guess.  

I don't think anyone can predict what will happen until it happens.

In my home country, they are already paying record prices for Fuel! And no end in sight!

[Real Name Hidden]

I hope for a diplomatic solution but don’t expect an impact on myself other than social security  increase from inflation.  I visit places where there are frequently Russian tourists and wouldn’t expect any problems.

[RandiRona]

There will be an impact but not noticeable.... If a war breaks, it will be only between Ukrain and Russia, that too Ukraine will fold very fast to minimize causalities as no other country is sending troops. 

After the war, there will be lot of sanctions on Russia, Russia would retaliate by stoping gas supply to EU, that would bring EU-Russia on table to negotiate relief on sanctions. Cost of commodities and Petrol would go high and all western supply would get delayed or stopped for some time so some inflation. But no big impact.

[Hummin]

Oil prices

Flight routes changed again and 

All we have to do, is just wait for better times. If a war brakes out between Russia and Ukraine, most likely China will tighten the grip on South Asia Pacific, and also Taiwan. Then Thailand have to choose side!

 

Don't expect a single Russian attack and occupation of Ukraine to install a Russian friendly government to pose a great risk for Europe, unless Nato respond (do the stupid move) with all power necessary. 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Hummin

[spidermike007]

Not much. Except I would have even less respect for Russia and King Vlad, than I do now, if that is even possible. 

[FritsSikkink]

None

[Virt]

I would imagine it could cause some serious problems for the local Russian expats,

if Russia are removed from the SWIFT system,

and it's not going to be funny to be a a Russian citizen in many parts of the world.

 

For the other expats i would image there will be some sort of financial ripple that can be felt in Thailand as well.

Imports of certain products would be an issue too.

 

Traveling back and forth could be an issue too for some expats,

if the sky is closed in Russia, Ukraine and surrounding countries.

 

A lot of the air traffic from Europe to Thailand use that route.

 

We will feel the consequences more here in Europe, so overall i think the ordinary expat are better off in Thailand than here.

 

[MJCM]

Just now, Virt said:

A lot of the air traffic from Europe to Thailand use that route.

Yeah. Remember this one??

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

 

Quote

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17)[a] was a scheduled passenger flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur that was shot down on 17 July 2014 while flying over eastern Ukraine. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed.[3] Contact with the aircraft, a Boeing 777-200ER, was lost when it was about 50 km (31 mi) from the Ukraine–Russia border, and wreckage of the aircraft fell near Hrabove in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 40 km (25 mi) from the border.[4] The shoot-down occurred in the War in Donbas in an area controlled by pro-Russian rebels.[5]

 

[Jingthing]

As another said. Investment hits. Stock market hits. That kind of thing that helps fund a lot of many expats lives here.

[steven100]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

predictions about the impact on your life here as expats in Thailand (if any) IF this happens?

nil  .........   I can still buy my p_iss from 7-11      

[MJCM]

Just now, Jingthing said:

As another said. Investment hits. Stock market hits. That kind of thing that helps fund a lot of many expats lives here.

But that creates opportunities as well.

 

I don't get a lot of Interest on my money in my Home Country and I even have to pay the Bank if I have more then a certain amount of money in the bank. So if the stocks are crashing, it's good time to buy ????

[mtls2005]

It won't be a war.

 

It will be a one-day invasion (Czech model), or six days tops (Hungarian model).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

6 minutes ago, MJCM said:

But that creates opportunities as well.

 

I don't get a lot of Interest on my money in my Home Country and I even have to pay the Bank if I have more then a certain amount of money in the bank. So if the stocks are crashing, it's good time to buy ????

In theory a good time to buy, but myself I wouldn't know what to do or what to buy. My money is invested in an IRA, mutual funds, S&P and NYSE, but I don't have a great knowledge except I've made money.

[BritManToo]

34 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

So what are your concerns/predictions about the impact on your life here as expats in Thailand (if any) IF this happens?

ZERO ........ nobody cares about Eastern Europe.

[Rimmer]

A baiting troll post and replies have been removed

[MisterTee]

40 minutes ago, steven100 said:

nil  .........   I can still buy my p_iss from 7-11      

Can it.

Revolting Aussie slang may have a place somewhere but not here.

It lowers the tone of even a silly thread like this.

[kevinsan]

RnR mania. Gogo bars packed and like Jesus, Patpong shall arise from the dead.

[steven100]

8 minutes ago, MisterTee said:

Can it.

Revolting Aussie slang may have a place somewhere but not here.

It lowers the tone of even a silly thread like this.

so sorry MisterTee your honor, .....

nil ......  I can still buy my booze at 7-11    

[BostonRob2]

The value of my mother in law's gold chain will go up creating widespread family happiness.

[Denim]

Personally , I don't think there will be a war. Not a war of occupation anyway. The Russians had a bad experience in Afghanistan so I don't think they will go to war. Just sending a message that it will not tolerate the Ukraine joining NATO or moving much closer to the west. 

 

Therefore , here in the boonies I can't see myself getting conscripted into a new dads army any time soon.

[Chris.B]

No effect! I am betting Ukraine to win or at least, inflict significant damage to Russian forces. ????

 

[1FinickyOne]

It will be as devastating as the Falkland Island and the US invasion of Grenada put together. 

 

It might even knock the lady boxer off the front page for a day or two... 

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

As another said. Investment hits. Stock market hits. That kind of thing that helps fund a lot of many expats lives here.

The stock market hits were priced in last week. 

 

It is equally likely to create a...  'there was an invasion and the stock market went up????' reaction from many...