How the corona-virus crisis will shape the world ?

[mauGR1]

This is not to discuss the severity and the mortality of the virus, as we're discussing it already on several threads.

I'm interested to hear your opinions on how this situation will shape our lives and the lives of all people in the near and the distant future.

Feel free to focus on specific countries or cultures, or the world in general.

i'll start saying that, in my opinion, this is probably the end of mass tourism, at least for some years.

[nobodysfriend]

The ' old ' Normal seems to be gone definitely . The ' new ' Normal cannot be defined yet , as the virus will probably stay for a long time ...

It all depends on how it develops , ... 2nd wave , more infections , about 1 billion infected ( read this somewhere , not remember where ... ) , or a vaccine or cure is found and mass produced ...?

Less developed countries will suffer a lot due to a lack of medicinal infrastructure and poor people not being able to do the ' social distancing ' ...

The US wants China being held responsible for the economical damage what will result in tensions between these 2 ( or more ) countries .

Globalization will decrease as countries will reduce their dependency on foreign countries ...

 

Reduced traffic means reduced pollution , that is a good thing .

 

As for Thailand , much less tourists , much less income from this , many Thais unemployed , Crime rate will probably rise ...

BUT : Immigration will become more friendly , long stay farangs will be welcome again , 5 or 10 year Visas will be issued with a smile , no more 90 days reporting ... 555555 ...

Edited May 2, 2020 by nobodysfriend

[rwill]

I think you underestimate how quickly humans forget stuff.

[mauGR1]

3 minutes ago, rwill said:

I think you underestimate how quickly humans forget stuff.

Well, at the moment i am jobless, and not even a beer for the evening, i'm not going to forget that ????

[PETERTHEEATER]

How the corona-virus crisis will shape the world ?

A similar spheroid to that now but orange with blobby wart like protruberances all over?

[TKDfella]

All pandemics and epidemics have altered the way life progressed.

The great plague during Emperor Justinian reign in the 6th century is said to have killed many millions of people. Historians still argue about the measure of impact it had but most agree that it did more than just decimate the world's population at that time. It was probably the final blow to the remnants of the ancient Roman Empire which never recovered afterwards. This was the beginning of border changes resulting more closely to what we see today. Would the Roman Empire have survived (in some form) if that plague never happened?

The so called Black Death of the middle 14th century caused many changes and provided opportunities for the survivors who previously lived at the bottom end of the social scale. Apparently the Roman Catholic was so much challenged that people turned to other forms mysticism and cults. Some think it caused prejudice to smaller groups, such as the Jewish community.

In the late 15th century Smallpox was perhaps the major cause of change in the American continent again killing millions. At very least this helped Europeans to fill the exposed large vacated areas and through the discovery of large mineral deposits it spurred the capitalism of today. We might have seen a very different world if that hadn't happened.

There will always be those who see such impacts on populations as a chance to exploit something, be it control, false needs etc. I don't suppose this pandemic will be any different.

[Krataiboy]

You're asking the wrong people. Pity Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't Forum members.

[Brunolem]

29 minutes ago, rwill said:

I think you underestimate how quickly humans forget stuff.

They forget quickly when things don't affect them personally, but in the case of this pandemic, almost everyone has been affected one way or another. 

 

Before going to the population at large, start focusing on our own case. 

 

Personally, I am not worried about the virus, but I am worried about the consequences of how it was delt with. 

 

This is going to lead to some adaptations in my way of life, starting with no more flying (too much trouble) and no more travelling abroad (the risk of being caught in a quarantine, or not being able to return). 

 

Financially, I will be very conservative with my savings, because the markets won't be safe for a long time. 

 

I think that many people will react like me, worldwide, at least when it will come to travelling. 

 

Countries, and by extension, their populations are going to hurt for years. 

 

Meanwhile, freedom of speech is going to be dramatically curtailed, and surveillance dramatically increased. 

 

The world of tomorrow is not going to be anything like the 60s and 70s, and I wouldn't want to be 20 today. 

 

I could be wrong, of course, but I think that those of us who chose to live in East Asia are going to be better off than those who will remain in the "old world" (the West) ... I actually moved to Thailand, long ago, with that in the back of my mind. 

[Brunolem]

4 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

You're asking the wrong people. Pity Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't Forum members.

Why would you want to consult the satanic trinity? 

[mauGR1]

8 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

You're asking the wrong people. Pity Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't Forum members.

Well, perhaps i should call kill bill, and ask him why he's not a Forum member yet ????

[chessman]

In the UK people are talking about this as if it is the biggest national crisis since WW2. After that war, our war 'hero' prime minister, Winston Churchill, shockingly lost the election to the more left wing labour party. That labour party brought in universal healthcare with the National Health Service.

 

Any crisis magnifies inequality and this one is doing the same https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/covid-19-deaths-twice-as-high-in-poorest-areas-in-england-and-wales. Some people are saying that nationalism will be stronger and I can see that, I could also see a move to the left though (as what happened in the UK in 1945) with a more collective spirit and countries working to improve their health care systems.

[xtrnuno41]

In 2017/18 we had a flue wave here which caused about 10000 people to die on it. I even wasnt aware of it, then and when it came up on internet just recently, i was quite amazed.

Didnt pick up anything about it on news or internet. No social distancing, not any measurers. No panic, no lock downs, just nothing.

 

THis one will not change a thing, when it passes. In the past we already had sars, mers, ebola, nothing changed. They were not so successful as this one. It will not change and people will get back to "normal" again. Everybody is waiting on governments to say "GO".

And then we run again till another one pops up again and we have the same old story.

There is an increase in viruses and all come from the same family, but changed. Im wondering about that and find it suspicious.

As war making fades out, is this a new way of controlling humans? IS some one making the viruses and set them out?

 

WHen i was younger, there were 3 billion people on earth and now its almost 9. 

Thanks to many wars we had, it is only 9. Otherwise we had already many problems? 

We already select, who might and can live. We decide who can die, but that has been always with humans for centuries.

So are those viruses created and used to control population and with it at the same time economics and power?

In Wuhan is a lab where they are working with those viruses, mmmm. OK there are more places over the world.

You offer some citizens to spread and see what happens and when you start yourself, you get back in the saddle before other

ones realise what is going on. We live in a crazy world, where power is all and so called leaders (governments and associates) all 

try to be in total control of humans. 

 

[Lacessit]

Travel will be more expensive, due to social distancing on aircraft. That will have a knock on effect for tourism anywhere outside one's own country.

Self funded retirees will feel the pinch, income from their investments will decline as companies cut dividends to conserve capital.

The unemployed may actually get a better social security outcome, as they are now a bigger voting bloc. In Western countries.

IMO there might be revolutions in countries that are authoritarian, without an adequate safety net. Starving people have nothing to lose by change.

Countries will definitely be restarting or re-aligning their manufacturing industries to reduce their dependence on China. Just in time manufacturing is going to take a big hit, warehouses will start filling up again.

Sport will lose much of the sponsor income it once took for granted.

[spidermike007]

Good topic. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 100,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

 

One has to wonder what they will open to? Tourism is not returning to Thailand anytime soon. If you think about it, the group that comprised perhaps 60% of all arrivals (lower to middle income Chinese and Indians) are the ones who have been hardest hit by this idiotic worldwide economic shutdown. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work. Most countries will still be required to have Covid letters, as the virus is still raging in many countries. And some countries will not issue that letter (impossible to get in the US). Plus, will the mandatory health insurance still be required? Will it be even stricter than before? And just what are people returning to, or coming to? Will restaurants be open? How about nightlife?

 

There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world. 

[Krataiboy]

40 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Why would you want to consult the satanic trinity? 

Sorry, I thought they were warm-hearted philanthropists. Don't disillusion me!

[superal]

The UK Oxford University have started human trials on a covid 19 vaccine . They are 80% confident that it will be successful having used it on a similar virus last year and so have a head start on other laboratories . They hope to have the vaccine ready by September this year . 

No need for the world to change if the vaccine proves effective .  

[allanos]

The novel corona virus will not change the world, but the effects of the virus, that is, the decisions taken by panicked governments, will certainly change how the world will be in future.  People will become significantly poorer than they are today.

 

I believe that the economic fall-out  will be one of the most serious after-effects.  Governments printing money like there is no tomorrow, which conforms to the Modern Monetary Theory.  Governments are able to print as much money as they like as they cannot become insolvent. But we must remember Newton's Third Law of motion, which basically states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

 

The knock-on effect of so much money washing around is that the purchasing power of that money drops over time.  This is called inflation, with too much money chasing too few goods.  Look back to any point in time in the past and see what one could buy with, say, $100, compared to now.  The same will be true in the future.  

 

[tribalfusion001]

Boring. Nothing open, nothing to do, no sport, no bars, no clubs, nothing on the news apart from boring covid-19. As with most things these days it's all media driven and the media will switch on to something else when they tire of this situation, which seems to be happening already. Governments act on media drivel and when the media changes course, so will the governments.

[Brunolem]

29 minutes ago, allanos said:

The knock-on effect of so much money washing around is that the purchasing power of that money drops over time.  This is called inflation, with too much money chasing too few goods.  Look back to any point in time in the past and see what one could buy with, say, $100, compared to now.  The same will be true in the future.  

 

Hence this yellow shiny metal that remains the universal standard to measure the value of money...

[dash]

36 minutes ago, superal said:

The UK Oxford University have started human trials on a covid 19 vaccine . They are 80% confident that it will be successful having used it on a similar virus last year and so have a head start on other laboratories . They hope to have the vaccine ready by September this year . 

No need for the world to change if the vaccine proves effective .  

There is no immunity. It is a CORONA virus. The disease is on the cellular immune reaction and there is no live virus involved.

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, TKDfella said:

All pandemics and epidemics have altered the way life progressed.

The great plague during Emperor Justinian reign in the 6th century is said to have killed many millions of people. Historians still argue about the measure of impact it had but most agree that it did more than just decimate the world's population at that time. It was probably the final blow to the remnants of the ancient Roman Empire which never recovered afterwards. This was the beginning of border changes resulting more closely to what we see today. Would the Roman Empire have survived (in some form) if that plague never happened?

The so called Black Death of the middle 14th century caused many changes and provided opportunities for the survivors who previously lived at the bottom end of the social scale. Apparently the Roman Catholic was so much challenged that people turned to other forms mysticism and cults. Some think it caused prejudice to smaller groups, such as the Jewish community.

In the late 15th century Smallpox was perhaps the major cause of change in the American continent again killing millions. At very least this helped Europeans to fill the exposed large vacated areas and through the discovery of large mineral deposits it spurred the capitalism of today. We might have seen a very different world if that hadn't happened.

There will always be those who see such impacts on populations as a chance to exploit something, be it control, false needs etc. I don't suppose this pandemic will be any different.

Couple of points...

The Black Death of 1348 was 58 years after Edward I expelled all the Jews from England, so they could not have experienced any prejudice.

Columbus didn't discover the American mainland until 1498 and the in the south-west contact was made later in 1538. The smallpox epidemic ran from 1620-1680 taking out around 87% of the native population.

And to answer the question about whether the Roman Empire would have survived after the 6th century plague - it did manage to stagger along for another 1300 years or so until 1806. Took a long time to never recover....

[steven100]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

I wouldn't want to be 20 today. 

could not agree more .....  Unless they have wealthy parents to fall back on ...

the majority can forget owning their own house or having a full time job for life .... those days are gone.  imo

[talahtnut]

An interesting question, with many apt replies.

For me, Covid 19 is clear proof that 'they' dont

need us peasants. All 'they' need is their printing

machine. Homelesness and poverty is increasing

worlwide, expect more of the same.

[Purdey]

I think more, small electric vehicles for shopping, less reliance on urban public transport. Long distance may also go to Intercity electric trains. Transglobal meetings will be via video conferencing rather than face-to-face  Expect governments to take global warming more seriously and convert to renewable energy faster. More people now realize you can conduct business from home, except for manufacturing. 

Exotic holidays will be more expensive and rare. Scarborough and Blackpool will make comebacks, as will Butlins for young adults. People won't be bothered to get visas to go into Europe and thus stay at home. 

Edited May 2, 2020 by Purdey
Spelling typo

[mauGR1]

22 minutes ago, dash said:

There is no immunity. It is a CORONA virus. The disease is on the cellular immune reaction and there is no live virus involved.

I am thinking the same, this vaccine thing stinks.

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Sorry, I thought they were warm-hearted philanthropists. Don't disillusion me!

What about a little injection?

It's nothing to worry about...

[Brunolem]

1 minute ago, mauGR1 said:

I am thinking the same, this vaccine thing stinks.

 

Of course!

And anyway, the regular process to develop a vaccine takes 5 to 10 years, with the healthcare authorities generally requesting many years of testing before authorizing the vaccine.

 

If, as some are saying, a vaccine was "ready" for injection by the end of this year, I'd rather take my chances and try escaping in a Boeing 737 Max!

 

 

[tribalfusion001]

16 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I am thinking the same, this vaccine thing stinks.

 

The world needs a vaccine fo something that has a roughly 0.2% mortality rate, pull the other one, more like big pharma coining it in...

[rumak]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Why would you want to consult the satanic trinity? 

oh,  there's a lot more where they come from.   "the country club"   .  

they own it.    and you don't !

[mauGR1]

10 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Of course!

And anyway, the regular process to develop a vaccine takes 5 to 10 years, with the healthcare authorities generally requesting many years of testing before authorizing the vaccine.

 

If, as some are saying, a vaccine was "ready" for injection by the end of this year, I'd rather take my chances and try escaping in a Boeing 737 Max!

 

 

Well, it's an unprecedented thing, especially should they make it mandatory.