5 minutes ago, Been There said:

Because covid has a 97/99% survival rate ?

Ok fair enough. So lets say there's an overall infection rate of 25% of all prisoners in Thailand and I don't think this is out of the realm then splitting the difference at a mortality rate of 2% thats going to be more or less 1,500-2000 deaths in custody from covid-19. 

1 minute ago, club said:

This thing in Thailand is getting out of control. If you cant understand that maybe you need to stop posting

 

Please provide evidence, sir.

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Ok fair enough. So lets say there's an overall infection rate of 25% of all prisoners in Thailand and I don't think this is out of the realm then splitting the difference at a mortality rate of 2% thats going to be more or less 1,500-2000 deaths in custody from covid-19. 

You forgot about how many will end up on oxygen, and have long term health effects for possibly the rest of their lives.  There's no way to tell, but the number is around 10 percent.  

But hey, let's just look at those death numbers.

By the way, COVID is so transmissible that 25 percent is a pipe dream.  

 

Just now, TaoNow said:

 

Please provide evidence, sir.

Your posting is evidence

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Ok fair enough. So lets say there's an overall infection rate of 25% of all prisoners in Thailand and I don't think this is out of the realm then splitting the difference at a mortality rate of 2% thats going to be more or less 1,500-2000 deaths in custody from covid-19. 

Agreed .. but most of the inmates will have a healthy immune system and I would imagine are under 50 years old  .... the death rate among under 50's is miniscule 

1 minute ago, club said:

Your posting is evidence

Or stupidity

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There have been relatively few post Songkran cases in the provinces. The Doomsayers told us that millions of people left Bangkok for Songkran, and the result would be catastrophe.

 

What we got were a handful of clusters in some provinces.

Ask yourself how many people have actually been tested?

4 hours ago, edwardandtubs said:

 

Take away the prison numbers and it's clearly not exponential. The doommongers have been saying for over a month now that numbers are going exponential yet here we are with general population cases still in the 2000s. 

 

And the lockdown fanatics are also out in force in this thread. But 6,853 of today's cases were of people already locked down so how would locking down the general population have made any difference? Should the prison officers be working from home?

I asked the question the other day about how many infected prisoners have been released back into the general population in the last 7 - 10 days before this reared it's ugly head ? 

 

I don't suppose even the authorities know yet. Shameful really.

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There have been relatively few post Songkran cases in the provinces. The Doomsayers told us that millions of people left Bangkok for Songkran, and the result would be catastrophe.

 

What we got were a handful of clusters in some provinces.

Ask yourself how many people have actually been tested?

7 minutes ago, club said:

This thing in Thailand is getting out of control. If you cant understand that maybe you need to stop posting

Wait til the new variants ravage through Thailand and see what he says then. 

9 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Current official response to this, easing of measures!!

 

Now try a full lockdown as you should have done at the start or be prepared for far worse to come. Disastrous news on all fronts.

It has been proven in other countries that any preventive measures to contain the virus have not eliminated the spread of the virus .Mask and social distancing just contained the number for skyrocketing.

 

The  number will go down once quick vaccination will start. If local AZ is not available by the first of next month, it will be a problem because the government orders for other vaccines  are in queue and are not  available immediately

 

They may get few millions but not enough to vaccinate 50million people by end of this year.

 

we all hope for the best.

9 hours ago, worgeordie said:

Last year I was telling my family in UK to stay safe and go out

as little as possible,now they are saying the same message

back to me , the Government has really let the Thai people

down by dithering over ordering  Covid vaccines.  no dithering

when purchasing weapons of war.....

regards worgeordie

Ok now the UK with 130000 deaths is better than Thailand 

 

On 5/12/2021 at 11:49 AM, ChipButty said:

Even the girls working online are not busy, I know a couple of them

0

6 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Ask yourself how many people have actually been tested?

And also how many that's supposed to be tested but didn't due to lack of test kits

12 minutes ago, club said:

Your posting is evidence

Sir Club:  I am looking at the daily number of Covid-19 deaths in Thailand. 

 

If you don't believe those data as reported in the daily briedings, why are you on this thread"

5 minutes ago, Been There said:

Agreed .. but most of the inmates will have a healthy immune system and I would imagine are under 50 years old  .... the death rate among under 50's is miniscule 

"Most of the inmates will have a healthy immune system" Really. Why? I guess most don't have underlying health issues either.

A personal attack and a reply have been removed

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

"Most of the inmates will have a healthy immune system" Really. Why? I guess most don't have underlying health issues either.

If you haven't got a healthy immune system when you fairly young and inside prison ....  I don't think they would survive

22 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

You forgot about how many will end up on oxygen, and have long term health effects for possibly the rest of their lives.  There's no way to tell, but the number is around 10 percent.  

But hey, let's just look at those death numbers.

By the way, COVID is so transmissible that 25 percent is a pipe dream.  

 

I was keeping on the very optimistic side to make a point.

33 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

 

Ryan, as I think you know already, I only come on this part of TV to challenge those who like to use the term "disaster" or other dark scenarios to describe the Covid situation in Thailand without hard evidence.   

 

You may think this is a pub, but it is a global forum which people around the world may read.   

 

Therefore, it is of the utmost importance that posters avoid hyperbole, and back up any assertions about the situation of the epidemic in Thailand with evidence. 

 

By the way, I am talking about the general situation in Thailand, not that in prisons, which I agree is deplorable.

 

I have a strong interest in what happens with Covid-19 spread in Thailand. 

 

But I think I have more experience in working with Thai government health systems data than most of the posters on these threads.

 

That's why I will take you and others to task when the need arises.

 

Be well.

 

Quick question, does the Sars-Cov-2 virus behave differently in Thailand for some unknown reason than it does everywhere else in the world, and if not why are you expecting a different outcome?

2 minutes ago, Been There said:

If you haven't got a healthy immune system when you fairly young and inside prison ....  I don't think they would survive

How many do you think are in the nick for yaba. You think anphetimines or methamphetimes which are cut with caffine and stuff are good for your immune system?

1 hour ago, hotandsticky said:

The confirmed cases are falling - fact.

 

Not in Bangkok and surrounding provinces, they're not.  In fact, Bangkok's new cases (excluding the prison cases) set a pandemic record high on Monday.

 

But beyond that, the available evidence suggests  there are widespread cases out  in the outlying areas that simply aren't being tested for and/or recorded...

 

When you have, just to cite a few high case count examples of recent days, a sausage factory closed in Nakhon Ratchasima and a hospital wing closed in Ratchaburi and a gem traders outbreak in Chanthaburi and a pineapple cannery outbreak in PKK, those are all signs that CV is alive and doing well in many outlying areas.

 

We knew nothing of 3900+ prison cases in Chiang Mai that the government had been testing for since the start of May until they suddenly bulk reported the entire mass of them today... 

 

That's clear evidence there's a disconnect between reality and what's actually being reported in real time.

 

 

 

52 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

Do you normally put words in people's mouth's?

 

I didn't say it was over.... I will say it is contained (apart from the prisons and parts of Bangkok that will take a bit a longer). Being contained that will see further movement from red to orange to green in the coming weeks.

 

Now..... what have YOU got to offer to say that will not be the case?

 

 

Glad you believe yourself,  very few others do including myself.  If I am wrong well then I will say it like I always do.  

I wonder whether Thailand is going to exceed Myanmar's case which is 143,000. it has already surpassed China's total figure.

 

That's the price for enjoying Songkran and not locking down Bangkok.

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

How many do you think are in the nick for yaba. You think anphetimines or methamphetimes which are cut with caffine and stuff are good for your immune system?

Obviously not ... but if you're still young ... the immune system works perfectly fine in most cases

38 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Ask yourself how many people have actually been tested?

Ask yourself how many haven't ? 

3 minutes ago, Been There said:

Obviously not ... but if you're still young ... the immune system works perfectly fine in most cases

One would hope so. So hopefully no one in jail has kidney disease or lung disease or diabeties or chronic obesity or any other comorbity that puts you at a higher risk of severe illness or death from covid-19.

4 hours ago, edwardandtubs said:

Thailand isn't a developed country like the United Kingdom. You make mass testing sound like a simple thing that they could just click their fingers and start doing overnight. It took the UK many months and a lot of money to get their mass testing off the ground. As mass vaccination is due to start next month, would it really be a good use of Thailand's limited budget to invest in the infrastructure for mass testing now?

 

???????? Thailand probably has the biggest foreign cash reserves of any SEA country, they could spend till the cows come home to save their people but those in charge seem to think it's theirs and not for general use ????????

11 minutes ago, club said:

Ask yourself how many haven't ? 

I was tested. No good now though. Too long ago.

18 minutes ago, EricTh said:

I wonder whether Thailand is going to exceed Myanmar's case which is 143,000. it has already surpassed China's total figure.

 

That's the price for enjoying Songkran and not locking down Bangkok.

China's figures are a complete joke as are Myanmars and probably others.

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Apart from clusters in Bangkok, and in the prison system, the epidemic seems to be receding.

 

I have noticed that there aren’t that many people walking around outside these days. So, people are staying home more, which reduces transmission of the virus.

Actually, walking outside is fairly safe. The problem is staying indoors and at home. People have to work to eat.. The infections happen at work, public transport and then at home when masks come off.

Hiding at home will only delay the infections.

Regarding prisons.. The outside community introduced the virus into the prison in the first place