11 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Completely out of control. No way back now. Even a month full and strict lockdown may have little impact. This virus is transmitted first by air and second on surfaces. I'm not sure the idiots at the top realise this and fairly sure many Thais don't. I am wearing two masks. This is unravelling very fast. 

If lockdowns will have little impact, how do you see Thailand getting out of this?  How long before the virus naturally runs its course?  

I sit here and look at the numbers and think of the people in Thailand. Truly heartbreaking.

A group of expats that I know posted photos on FB celebrating a friend's birthday drinking beer out of coffee cups. Packed in to a small bar. Pathetic.! Thais are in deep trouble in so many ways and these guys have no regard for the rules. Can't manage without their talking s**t and drinking beer. 

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

If lockdowns will have little impact, how do you see Thailand getting out of this?  How long before the virus naturally runs its course?  

Same as India - the virus will run its course, with the decline aided by a relatively low level of vaccination. But even after a few months, there will still be a high level of infections, until herd immunity is achieved. Maybe around January.

1 minute ago, brewsterbudgen said:

If lockdowns will have little impact, how do you see Thailand getting out of this?  How long before the virus naturally runs its course?  

As I posted yesterday, it seems the lack of policy action to date has left Thailand with basically a binary choice. Harsh lockdown to try to gain control, or just try to keep hospitals going while the virus does what it does.

 

out of thin air, I’m  guessing within 3 months things will get bad enough that Thailand will start receiving international donations of vaccine. 3 months to get most of it jabbed, so 6 months best case.

 

I’m not seeing a feasible path to shorten that time frame and It could go longer.

 

just an opinion.

 

22 minutes ago, rott said:

Many on here spell everything incorrectly. 

 

But what will the government response be.? Not many viable and acceptable options. 

A dictionary for every child?

So the wearing mask when driving motorcycle isn't helping? 

Samut Sakhon Governor just announced no travel out of the province. 

Could it in reality be approx. 50,000?

It will keep going up sadly no end in sight.

As I said twice now, government took the 10000 a day as a challenge not as a warning . Goal almost achieved within 1 week.

 

here is a scary part, numbers going up daily by 20%~30%, if government does not take drastic measures today , by the end of next week numbers could easily hit 20000 and keep climbing 

There's a reality check twitter thread here from a foreign doctor and his family, including children + nanny etc in Thailand with his experience of the group catching covid, one died and the father and 2 and a half year old son both in serious condition in hospital. 

 

This is sobering reading and well worth the effort and yes young children can suffer seriously with the virus, I would paste it hear but it is too long, here's the first couple of tweets then you need to follow the thread:

 

https://twitter.com/IntegralAnswers/status/1412644275980963841

 

1) My family’s experience with COVID in Thailand. On May 30th, a part time helper, employed by us to help with laundry, cleaning and most importantly caring for my 2 1/2 year old son and 10 year old daughter came to our home. When I returned home from work, she appeared ill.

 

2) I’m a physician. I immediately sent her to hospital for testing. Transferred money for her care. 3 days later (Jun 2) my 2 1/2 year old wakes complaining “My mouth hurts, Daddy.” He is hot to touch. Temp is 38.2C. Take family to hospital for tests. No word about helper yet.

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Same as India - the virus will run its course, with the decline aided by a relatively low level of vaccination. But even after a few months, there will still be a high level of infections, until herd immunity is achieved. Maybe around January.

NOBODY has been able to reach herd immunity naturally.

Tweeted early this morning:

 

BREAKING: The Governor of Kanchanaburi has ordered the lockdown of Sangkhlaburi. No one is allowed to enter or leave from 9-22 July. In addition there is a nightly curfew from 10pm-4am when people are forbidden to leave their homes #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413200001069629445

 

Just now, hioctane said:

NOBODY has been able to reach herd immunity naturally.

I am saying that vaccinations may ramp up by the end of the year sufficiently to impact infection levels.

There is no point in continued testing. The only way out now is hard lockdowns in combination with mass vaccinations.

13 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

If lockdowns will have little impact, how do you see Thailand getting out of this?  How long before the virus naturally runs its course?  

I did not say lockdowns will have little impact. if you think I did feel free to quote me. What I said was even a full months strict lockdown may have little effect.  It's been left too long. As for the virus running it's course because of the low level of vaccination this will be a disater. Lockdowns? 6-8 wks and see how things are going.

Just now, hioctane said:

There is no point in continued testing. The only way out now is hard lockdowns in combination with mass vaccinations.

Unless there is testing, how to know when to end the lockdown?

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

I am saying that vaccinations may ramp up by the end of the year sufficiently to impact infection levels.

Well they said 120 days. It needs to be even faster than that.

Just now, hioctane said:

Well they said 120 days. It needs to be even faster than that.

Nobody believes what they say.

 

Even January is problematic, if they don’t ramp up soon.

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

BREAKING: The Governor of Kanchanaburi has ordered the lockdown of Sangkhlaburi

This report and earlier one for another province has surprised me. I assumed the lockdown of outbound travel would start with Bangkok.

I wonder if Phuket will join the list. 

Might be situation where all the governor's follow one by one to be seen as being pro-active.

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Unless there is testing, how to know when to end the lockdown?

When everyone is vaccinated… mass vaccinate in 1-2 months.

26 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

I did predict in an earlier post here on TVF when a so called professor said that we could see 10,000 infections per day by the end of the year, and I replied that it could be by end of the month, but now I will have to revise my figures to say by tomorrow.

 

Now if that professor is so clever NOT, think about the rest running this country, maybe I should throw it out there, i.e. that we could reach NATURAL herd immunity by years end because we have no vaccines, and I ain't no professor.

Natural herd immunity agaist this virus with such a low % being fully vaccinated will come at very high human cost.

Ouch thats gotta hurt the general and the powers to be.  Yet vaccinating the masses is the right thing to do and should have been done months ago instead of dragging their feet.  These folks have created the issue, and allowed its mass spread by inviting travel throughout the country.  Tell us again what the right thing to do is.  This government does not have the money to spend to assist people but they sure have the funds to fund tanks, submarines, and a space program, as well as funding high speed rail, all of which could be put on the back burner and the peoples needs met first.....Sad reality is that no matter who the people are, they will continue to suffer at the hands of this Junta lead government.

19 minutes ago, Neal182 said:

A group of expats that I know posted photos on FB celebrating a friend's birthday drinking beer out of coffee cups. Packed in to a small bar. Pathetic.! Thais are in deep trouble in so many ways and these guys have no regard for the rules. Can't manage without their talking s**t and drinking beer. 

Don't you know beer is important for a large part of the expats, they call those what worry the Non fun crowd. They want everything to open up. Though that call is getting less except for some die hards who feel their freedom is lost and not care about anyone else.

When the hospital system is maxed out (for the nitpickers, I mean at 100% capacity), how will we know if the numbers of infections are still increasing?

 

With only a couple of thousand cases per day revealed by pro-active testing, the official case numbers are largely driven by hospital system numbers, but what happens when no new patients can be admitted? Are we going to be stuck at some arbitrarily low case number for the duration?

 

 

1 minute ago, DrJack54 said:

This report and earlier one for another province has surprised me. I assumed the lockdown of outbound travel would start with Bangkok.

I wonder if Phuket will join the list. 

Might be situation where all the governor's follow one by one to be seen as being pro-active.

Hospitals, doctors, TV posters, and now even provincial governments are far smarter than the leadership. Anutin, is that you?

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Natural herd immunity agaist this virus with such a low % being fully vaccinated will come at very high human cost.

Even worse, the 300,000 or so previously infected may be liable to re-infection by a different variant.

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

Ouch thats gotta hurt the general and the powers to be.  Yet vaccinating the masses is the right thing to do and should have been done months ago instead of dragging their feet.  These folks have created the issue, and allowed its mass spread by inviting travel throughout the country.  Tell us again what the right thing to do is.  This government does not have the money to spend to assist people but they sure have the funds to fund tanks, submarines, and a space program, as well as funding high speed rail, all of which could be put on the back burner and the peoples needs met first.....Sad reality is that no matter who the people are, they will continue to suffer at the hands of this Junta lead government.

Yes in one way the pandemic is a god send for the anti goverment people. Shows how absolutely incompetent the government is. This wont be forgotten easy. That is the only silver lining there is. 

 

Yea if they were sincere those tanks and subs would go and tghe money would go to the populace who are suffering. The money could have been used to pay people to stay home. That is the only way. 

7 minutes ago, hioctane said:

When everyone is vaccinated… mass vaccinate in 1-2 months.

I don't think there are enough vaccines!

17 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

As I posted yesterday, it seems the lack of policy action to date has left Thailand with basically a binary choice. Harsh lockdown to try to gain control, or just try to keep hospitals going while the virus does what it does.

 

out of thin air, I’m  guessing within 3 months things will get bad enough that Thailand will start receiving international donations of vaccine. 3 months to get most of it jabbed, so 6 months best case.

 

I’m not seeing a feasible path to shorten that time frame and It could go longer.

 

just an opinion.

 

Anutin needs to get on his knees in public and beg dirty farang to provid millions of doses of effective vaccines