Latest foreign tourist assessment: Kasikorn downgrades to just 150,000 visitors before year's end

[sambum]

5 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

There is also a countermovement. Many expats, business owners and older long-term retirees are planning their departure from Thailand. Some fly home because they can get an effective vaccination against C19 Delta immediately in their home countrys. Others fear that the lockdown wave will continue for months. No fun here. Restaurants, Bars, Entertainment, Attractions sights closed, alcohol bans, curfew, visa stress, restricted round trips and tourist ghost towns. Business owners and many foreign teachers give also up because they can no longer make money. With all the forecast numbers of the arrivals there are also the numbers of the departures, which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

Yes, it would be intertesting to know the number of people who have given up on "LOS"! I personally know of one or two that have had enough.

[AnotherFarang8]

6 minutes ago, DLock said:

They can come...what's stopping them?

PCR tests and no night life.

 

People who come for the temples, that’s about right, 150 000.

 

Remove PCR tests, open bars with Isaan girls - 3 000 000 this year easy. I miss feeding sick buffaloes as i am sure others too.

[lks7689]

5 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

There is also a countermovement. Many expats, business owners and older long-term retirees are planning their departure from Thailand. Some fly home because they can get an effective vaccination against C19 Delta immediately in their home countrys. Others fear that the lockdown wave will continue for months. No fun here. Restaurants, Bars, Entertainment, Attractions sights closed, alcohol bans, curfew, visa stress, restricted round trips and tourist ghost towns. Business owners and many foreign teachers give also up because they can no longer make money. With all the forecast numbers of the arrivals there are also the numbers of the departures, which unfortunately are not analysed at all.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/08/19/covid-vaccines-less-effective-against-delta-variant-and-pfizers-effectiveness-wanes-rapidly-large-study-finds/?sh=4570daca44f2

 

Unless you are getting moderna, not much difference. 

[3NUMBAS]

critical mass is a long way in the future

[Kalasin Jo]

4 hours ago, Percy P said:

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

What for right now? Do tell!

[jak2002003]

1 hour ago, sambum said:

Yes, it would be intertesting to know the number of people who have given up on "LOS"! I personally know of one or two that have had enough.

We are right on the edge of selling up and moving away after living here full time for 15 years.

 

So sad how it's changed so much. It's not the place we fell in love with.  

 

The virus just added to the frustration.  And the government's

 mindset / vaccine rollout / restrictions etc are not exactly helping change our mind to stay here.

 

We have to travel to other countries as part of our business, and with the current rules if we leave  Thailand we can't return to our house and home here.

 

Also, we have some legal stuff going on with a property in Phuket that needs urgent attention right now....and with the restrictions we are not allowed to travel there. It is so frustrating!

 

We don't want to go back to the UK, and our plan to retire and own a house in Europe is gone - thanks to Brexit. 

 

Feeling trapped,  depressed and not sure what our new plan should be.

 

If we could travel again that would lessen the problems a lot and we would probably stay and ride the storm out   

 

But, with this slow vaccine rollout and complicated sandbox situation there seems no end in sight, at which point our business could fail and we might loose our property in Phuket. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by jak2002003

[Deli]

They need a Think Tank to find out what a 3rd grader can do on his mobile phone.

We are talking about f/w 2022, IF we are lucky.

[Elkski]

The real Thailand is showing.  Love it or leave it. 

[sekmet]

Actually 75k because TAT qualifies each arrival and departure as a separate trip. 

 

Probably can reduce that more for people returning home, diplomats, migrant workers.

[cape]

5 hours ago, Millcx said:

 

Message to the Thai govt : change or be changed.

[khaowong1]

6 hours ago, kwonitoy said:

Never get a job with TAT with that kind of attitude.

 

Now lets see......if a million tourists show up with a million baht each.......ohhhhh too much money

Here's TAT's assessment:  150,000 x 10,000 usd spending each, = $1,500,000,000., on schedule.  ha ha ha   

[eastlight]

6 hours ago, Percy P said:

My friends in the UK can't wait to come here

Just what will they do if they arrive?

[BE88]

5 hours ago, ukrules said:

No, what they've done here is throw up roadblocks which exclude almost everyone.

 

I've noticed over the years that governments often do this kind of thing instead of banning something outright.

 

If they ban something outright then there might be retaliation in kind from other countries. Leaving the door slightly open leaves room for diplomacy.

 

I wish you weren't right, but all this would make no sense if it were not done on purpose to exclude practicing all expats with the excuse of raising the scales of Malaysia.

 

[tomacht8]

3 hours ago, sambum said:

Yes, it would be intertesting to know the number of people who have given up on "LOS"! I personally know of one or two that have had enough.

I see that here on the FB network Samui / KP / KT. Since there are no domestic flights, everyone has to organize their trip to Bangkok Airport by minivan. And there are currently a lot of searches for carpooling and minivan sharing. Also on the second hand sides you can find a lot of moving sales.That's a lot of people. Would say that there are several minvans on the go every day, and they are not Samui + tourists!

Edited August 19, 2021 by tomacht8

[Midwit]

I think just keep extending the lockdowns for another 2 weeks to fix everything. It seems to have really helped. Maybe making a law saying you have to wear 2 masks instead of 1 outdoors will help. If that doesn’t work keep restaurants closed until 2023. 

[Sharp]

Over 60 Phuket hotels are now no longer on the Sha+ list of health accreditated resorts according to a website. 

People are being asked to check and rebook other hotels if it's their accommodation. 

It must be impossible to stay open and cover costs any longer with the low number of arrivals so closing up until times right I'm guessing. 

[ukrules]

I don't recall reading much about the 'China travel corridor' in recent months.

[Saddic]

7 hours ago, sambum said:

Yes, it would be intertesting to know the number of people who have given up on "LOS"! I personally know of one or two that have had enough.

Pulled the trigger to bail end June...  It was clear the gov had no plan, (or vaxx on order)... and were clearly a delusional government by fortune tellers...  Flew out 1st week Aug... 

 

Will try to return to renew my retirement extension mid next year IF the quarantine is gone or relaxed (but also depends on the situation on the ground)...  Quite willing to let it expire... 

 

Frankly, don't believe the conditions on the ground will be recovered for 3-5 years...

 

5 hours ago, Elkski said:

The real Thailand is showing.  Love it or AND leave it. 

Fixed it for you...

Edited August 19, 2021 by Saddic

[Saddic]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

I don't recall reading much about the 'China travel corridor' in recent months.

Nor will you for a long time to come...

 

China restricts overseas travel to curb Covid outbreak

<<Dated Aug 4th, 2021>>

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210804-china-restricts-overseas-travel-to-curb-covid-outbreak

 

Edited August 19, 2021 by Saddic

[daveAustin]

6 hours ago, jak2002003 said:

We are right on the edge of selling up and moving away after living here full time for 15 years.

 

So sad how it's changed so much. It's not the place we fell in love with.  

 

The virus just added to the frustration.  And the government's

 mindset / vaccine rollout / restrictions etc are not exactly helping change our mind to stay here.

 

We have to travel to other countries as part of our business, and with the current rules if we leave  Thailand we can't return to our house and home here.

 

Also, we have some legal stuff going on with a property in Phuket that needs urgent attention right now....and with the restrictions we are not allowed to travel there. It is so frustrating!

 

We don't want to go back to the UK, and our plan to retire and own a house in Europe is gone - thanks to Brexit. 

 

Feeling trapped,  depressed and not sure what our new plan should be.

 

If we could travel again that would lessen the problems a lot and we would probably stay and ride the storm out   

 

But, with this slow vaccine rollout and complicated sandbox situation there seems no end in sight, at which point our business could fail and we might loose our property in Phuket. 

The likes of Spain and esp Portugal make little difference post-Brexit. 

[johnhender]

I would love to come to Bangkok to see my friends,  I am already vaccinated ready to fly but there is no way in hell I am stay in a crappy hotels room for 14 day when I only come over in 10 day stints How did they screw this up so bad ?  my travel agent still thinks October I think he is nuts  

[jacko45k]

16 hours ago, HAPPYNUFF said:

I have little doubt the  wonders that run this circus will be looking, and considering similar legislation....    But hey, think of all those rich  Chinese and Indian  tourists  who will take  our place??? Two weeks at a time, no less.

The government has recently reduced the protected amount of money you can have in a Thai bank to 1,000,000 baht which makes that idea unappealing. 

[brianthainess]

19 hours ago, webfact said:

Many people both inside Thailand and looking in from afar had deemed their predictions as little more than "pie-in-the-sky". 

Otherwise know as laughing their tits off.

[Heng]

Plan A is avoiding the sandbox myself on our return from getting vaccinated.   Less paperwork.  14 days in a decent AQ room is a cake walk. 

 

Plan B is just to delay our return indefinitely until it looks like the kids will be back in school.  

Edited August 20, 2021 by Heng

[brianthainess]

14 hours ago, Gandtee said:

Perhaps Kasikorn Think Tank, should be disbanded and given a better job. For instance. Like researching where to access vaccines. And how to distribute and administer them. Coming up with hypothetical figures is a complete nonsense and a waste of taxpayers money. So many ridiculous figures have been bandied about that I suspect people look at them and laugh. Pathetic.????

Am i missing something, What has Kasikorn's think tank got to do with wasting tax payers money?, they get a salary and work for a public company, if anything they contribute tax.

[paulikens]

a lot of posters on here really seem to think no-one will wanna come here, and don't get me wrong its not gonna be on the scale that it was but they seem to forget there's people about who now haven't had a holiday for over a year and a half and they have money to burn.   i know plenty of people who are willing to come here.  if they can open in the nov/dec time there will be europeans wanting to finally get away for the winter and they are getting a bit more for their money now as well that's a added bonus.      

[Boedog]

The old "THINK-TANK" they must have got rid of the idiots they had in the last think-tank  because the new guys although probably inflated at 30,000 per month remaining its not a outrageous fantasy like previous, and who would have thought there was political unrest with Grandmaster Prayut at the wheel

[jak2002003]

9 hours ago, daveAustin said:

The likes of Spain and esp Portugal make little difference post-Brexit. 

Before we could just buy and own a property there, work, use the health care system, travel in and out.  But now I is not that easy 

 

Both Spain and Portugal have visa restrictions now that mean you can live there full time and if you want to apply to get nationality then you have to move all you pensions and pay all your taxes there and not in the UK. 

 

To qualify to live there all year you also have to buy a property that needs renovation and is expensive.  You also have to have a 'passive income' which is quite a lot, and since I am not retired I can't use pensions for this.   So it's not as easy as before Brexit. 

[NeoDinosaw]

On 8/19/2021 at 7:56 AM, andersonat said:

I understand that there's only a limited amount of space in a news-article/media-announcement, but I'd *really* like to learn/know how (for example) TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.  --  Does it come from polling potential Tourists in foreign-countries, does it come from questioning Tourists who are actually in Thailand, does it come from analysing flight/travel-trends from Airlines/Hotel-Booking-Companies ?

 ----   Do the Thai Government or the Research-Organisations ever actually publish the details upon which their calculations/predictions are based ? 

 

how TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.

 

It's very simple really. Get the BTS to Ratchathewi, alight here, go to Asia Hotel exit and enter ist Floor (2nd floor to some people)  and go round the the left. Usually these is a lady sitting there who can tell you everything you need to know about your (and anybody else's ) future.  This is a relatively quick method of getting an accurate prediction. Clearly TAT do not have the time or the staff to interview people. And if they did have some quantitative data, the computer would  screw it up anyway !

[Gandtee]

7 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

how TAT forms/comes up with their predictions for tourist-numbers.

 

It's very simple really. Get the BTS to Ratchathewi, alight here, go to Asia Hotel exit and enter ist Floor (2nd floor to some people)  and go round the the left. Usually these is a lady sitting there who can tell you everything you need to know about your (and anybody else's ) future.  This is a relatively quick method of getting an accurate prediction. Clearly TAT do not have the time or the staff to interview people. And if they did have some quantitative data, the computer would  screw it up anyway !

The answer lies in the runes.????