As Thailand reopens, signs of economic recovery are visible

[thaibook]

15 minutes ago, Flink said:

Well, here they seem to count only the money tourists actually pay personally to Thais as part of the tourist element of GDP. They don't seem to include all the support industries, food production, transport, and everything else that is needed to provide the services the tourists need. Just because you're a rice farmer in Isaan doesn't mean you're not dependant on tourism. Without tourist dollars your customers can't afford to buy tour product. The tourism factor of the GDP is far larger than they want to admit. It's like when they shut down a car manufacturing plant. The loss of jobs at the plant is small compared to the job losses elsewhere in the materials production companies who now have no market for their goods and must completely renovate their production system in order to create new products to sell. 

 

The farmer may be affected by tourism just as he can be affected by the number of computers sold in California but the valu of his rice production does not contribute to tourism in gdp terms.  According to you, the farmer grows rice and sells it. If a tourist eats it, it counts towards tourism gdp; if a worker who builds hard disks that are incorporated into computers sold in California eats it, it counts towards manufacturing gdp; if a governement official eats it, it counts towards administration, etc.  So where is the agriculture contribution?  The farmer's output is agriculture and it is an input (consumed) by others.  If you count the value of the rice as output (agriculture) and again as input you are counting twice.

 

This does not mean that some people in other sectors, such as agriculture or construction, are not dependent on tourism but the total value of what they sell to tourists is the amount of money the tourists spend.  That is the tourism share of gdp.

 

[Tonypandy]

Have they factored in the chance of a stockmarket crash worldwide in 2022

[smew]

In a funny way, My Mother used to say, don't confuse me with facts my mind is made up.

Is TTA being funny!??

 

Majority of arrivals are expats who have households or living in Thailand.

An average traveler will not dish out and extra +/- 500$ for med insurance  

  

[bradiston]

1 hour ago, rocky123 said:

The elite, new world order, agenda21/30 is in full swing, globally. This whole c19 is not about controlling a virus, . WakeyWakey sleepy heads. The clock is ticking

 

Zzzzzzzzzzz ????????????

[Walker88]

3 hours ago, atpeace said:

Contradicts most of the above posts but agree.  If inbound tourism amounted to anywhere close to 20% of GDP we would be experiencing larger drops in total GDP.  What amazes me, not being economist, is how such small changes(2-5%) in GDP cause recessions.

Recession is s definition: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

 

I think I know what you meant, but the answer is that many 'ongoing concerns' have very thin margins, so drops in sales (what happens with a falling GDP) often means layoffs as firms try to stay as close to the black as possible. Layoffs directly lead to lower consumption, plus indirectly cause non-laid-off workers to cut back on spending out of fear.

 

The non-official definition goes like this: a Recession is when your neighbor gets laid off; a Depression is when you get laid off.

[Walker88]

1 hour ago, Harveyboy said:

yes I've noticed prices on most things soaring i do the shopping as the bride has to work so tend to notice it more   

Lots of production is down worldwide. Also, many imported goods are coming by air now (expensive, passed on to consumers), as importers don't have enough demand to fill a container and ship by sea. Fuel prices have also jumped considerably, so that factors into costs.

[Tonypandy]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

Tourism is still worth a few trillion baht and is one of Thailands largest sectors of employment. 

[Tonypandy]

1 hour ago, thaibook said:

 

The farmer may be affected by tourism just as he can be affected by the number of computers sold in California but the valu of his rice production does not contribute to tourism in gdp terms.  According to you, the farmer grows rice and sells it. If a tourist eats it, it counts towards tourism gdp; if a worker who builds hard disks that are incorporated into computers sold in California eats it, it counts towards manufacturing gdp; if a governement official eats it, it counts towards administration, etc.  So where is the agriculture contribution?  The farmer's output is agriculture and it is an input (consumed) by others.  If you count the value of the rice as output (agriculture) and again as input you are counting twice.

 

This does not mean that some people in other sectors, such as agriculture or construction, are not dependent on tourism but the total value of what they sell to tourists is the amount of money the tourists spend.  That is the tourism share of gdp.

 

So where does all money spent by tourists on street food and the likes get added to the GDP? It doesn't, but the tourists not coming affects other livelihoods. 

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

What happened to Tourism doesn't really account for the fall or rise n the economy. I guess that was another lie.

You mean another TVF lie.

If any sector that contributes to the GDP changes then the economy changes.

The tourism sector is split 12% international and 8% domestic for GDP.

[Longwood50]

7 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

fully vaccinated tourists, the number of arrivals has seen a steady, sharp increase.

[dinsdale]

Either dilusional or out right liars. Both really. Funny how the baht seems to be strengthening. Well not funny really.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

After Thailand reopened its doors on November 1 to fully vaccinated tourists, the number of arrivals has seen a steady, sharp increase.

Complete BS

 

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The number of new arrivals between November 1 and 16 rose to 58,870, according to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration.

Helping to save the nation...

Quoting tourism statistics everyday like they do you know they're up the creek without a paddle.

 

[Laughing Gravy]

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You mean another TVF lie.

If any sector that contributes to the GDP changes then the economy changes.

The tourism sector is split 12% international and 8% domestic for GDP.

We can rely on you Sandy to spin the truth. No it was mentioned by numerous government officials. perhaps take a look back and you will seek the facts.

[jollyhangmon]

2 hours ago, thaibook said:

 

The farmer may be affected by tourism just as he can be affected by the number of computers sold in California but the valu of his rice production does not contribute to tourism in gdp terms.  According to you, the farmer grows rice and sells it. If a tourist eats it, it counts towards tourism gdp; if a worker who builds hard disks that are incorporated into computers sold in California eats it, it counts towards manufacturing gdp; if a governement official eats it, it counts towards administration, etc.  So where is the agriculture contribution?  The farmer's output is agriculture and it is an input (consumed) by others.  If you count the value of the rice as output (agriculture) and again as input you are counting twice.

 

This does not mean that some people in other sectors, such as agriculture or construction, are not dependent on tourism but the total value of what they sell to tourists is the amount of money the tourists spend.  That is the tourism share of gdp.

 

 

... yes, while of course one can't count one & the same thing in different sectors it's clear if you look at 'overall' GDP, there is without doubt a considerable effect on (let's call it) 'general consumption' triggered by tourists, especially in these (previously) high numbers. It simply exceeds what the locals would consume on their own.

 

More rice eaten, more moddabikes & cars sold (rentals, replacement of the crashed ones, 555 ...), another house or flat built here, a third bathroom added there but also related bigger spending of communities etc. that just wouldn't/won't happen without tourism & so on ...

 

Not long ago Italy for example stated a nominal 12% contribution of tourism to their GDP - same we read repeatedly about TH btw. - but added the real effect would be 'minimum 20, possibly 25%' of their GDP ...

 

[HappyExpat57]

I rode down Pattaya Beach Road 3:00 p.m. 21 Nov and saw a scant number of tourists. Then went up Klang to Bua Khao, drove the whole distance and saw more of the same. VERY few tourists, a few places obviously serving "coffee" but not enough to save tourism.

[ThaiFelix]

So any economic recovery is due to returning expats because they have already admitted that very few are tourists.  Notice the wording is now 'arrivals' not 'tourists' LOL!

[Longwood50]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

All the parts of the economy are interconnected.  While GDP estimates of the amount spent by tourists are about 15% to 20%, that money is like adding water to prime a pump to get it flowing.  Without tourists, airlines reduce or eliminate service to Thailand so fewer landing fees, airline workers, airport concession workers, taxi drivers etc.  Fewer tourists means less occupancy at hotels and restaurants resulting in fewer hotel employees, fewer restaurant employees.  Fewer tourists causes tour operators to cut back or close again resulting in fewer employed Thai's.  Those lost jobs use to spend their money other other things such as housing, rent, cars, food, clothing, entertainment etc.  Without that money to spend, the other domestic industries are dampened again causing a spiral of layoffs, or closures. 

It is called the multiplier effect.  It is how many times will that same baht be spent as it circulates through the economy. 

This is known as the multiplier effect which in its simplest form is how many times money spent by a tourist circulates through a country's economy. ... Money spent in a hotel helps to create jobs directly in the hotel, but it also creates jobs indirectly elsewhere in the economy.

[zzaa09]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

If something is repeated [by most everyone] loud and often enough, it becomes real and true.

As in: tourism is a most vital aspect to the economy.

[soalbundy]

6 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Sure, there is a mass invasion coming up!

Quite amazing considering the new surge in covid in the West as well as the inflation. Austria has instigated a new lock down and Germany wont be far behind, in Holland the police had to use firearms in the face of a violent demonstration of anti-Vachers, in the UK it is 'hoped' that a normal Christmas can take place but anything is on the cards as they have the highest covid infections in Europe, doesn't look like a stabile situation to consider holidays in Asia.

[Bobydog]

So after the expats returned to Thailand after being separated from their families along with Thais returning home, how many real "Tourists actually arrived in Thailand. "signs of recovery. my ass"

[Bobydog]

8 hours ago, ezzra said:

Not sure what comment to post to some vague statement, like saying the sun has rose this morning and it looks like it's going to be a nice day...

How about a special from the Minister of Health, "Good morning peasants, I had a huge dump this morning"

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Either dilusional or out right liars. Both really. Funny how the baht seems to be strengthening. Well not funny really.

Actually it is more about Western currencies falling except the dollar which is strengthening, if you follow the dollar index spot on Bloomberg you will see that a rise in the dollar will cause a rise in the Baht and a fall in the Euro, at the moment it is quite dramatic, dollar index +0.5% Euro-dollar -0.7% Manager magazine shows Euro-Baht -0.35%

[hioctane]

4 hours ago, smew said:

In a funny way, My Mother used to say, don't confuse me with facts my mind is made up.

Is TTA being funny!??

 

Majority of arrivals are expats who have households or living in Thailand.

An average traveler will not dish out and extra +/- 500$ for med insurance  

  

In the beginning they might be but as time goes on there will be less and less because they are already back… or are you saying there an infinite number of expats overseas that are not back yet?

 

You don’t know what you are talking about. Medical insurance is $50-100 for 30 days. Hardly enough to affect your average traveler. If you can’t afford that, you shouldn’t be traveling!

[flyingfox1]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And it's only a small part of the GDP....

i thought it was 20%

[firemans35]

10 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The number of new arrivals between November 1 and 16 rose to 58,870, according to the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration.

From a previous Asean Now story. "It’s expats, not tourists that are visiting Thailand: Business leader" 

A key figure in Thailand's tourism industry pulled absolutely no punches when commenting on the country's supposed "reopening".

Thanet Supharothatrangsi, chairman of the Chonburi Tourism Business Association, echoed what people online have been saying for weeks if not months. The only arrivals are not true tourists at all. Just business people, property owners or those with families

It’s expats, not tourists that are visiting Thailand: Business leader - Thailand News - ASEAN NOW - News, Travel & Forum

 

Anyway. The experts have said it would take years for the tourist industry to recover. I doubt very seriously that 58,870 people If tourists would cause any noticeable signs of recovery in a few short weeks. Perhaps there are a lot of locals having more holidays.

[bkk6060]

2 hours ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I rode down Pattaya Beach Road 3:00 p.m. 21 Nov and saw a scant number of tourists. Then went up Klang to Bua Khao, drove the whole distance and saw more of the same. VERY few tourists, a few places obviously serving "coffee" but not enough to save tourism.

That's because they checked out of their hotels and went back to Bangkok.

[Dr B]

6 hours ago, EvetsKram said:

and yet inflation is sky rocketing here. I see everyday prices jumping a lot. Friday bread cost 32 baht, today 40

I believe that there will be inflation everywhere, as a result of global transport charges which affect so many things. I was talking to a colleague involved in construction in Australia last week, and a forty foot shipping container from China is now costing $20,000, compared with $2,000 a year or so ago. From the US has gone up about 6 times from $3,000 to $18,000. You can expect to see the same thing everywhere. Apparently Maersk were on the verge of going under a year or so ago, and now are making record profits, so not everyone is a loser!

[zzaa09]

5 hours ago, thaibook said:

 

The farmer may be affected by tourism just as he can be affected by the number of computers sold in California but the valu of his rice production does not contribute to tourism in gdp terms.  According to you, the farmer grows rice and sells it. If a tourist eats it, it counts towards tourism gdp; if a worker who builds hard disks that are incorporated into computers sold in California eats it, it counts towards manufacturing gdp; if a governement official eats it, it counts towards administration, etc.  So where is the agriculture contribution?  The farmer's output is agriculture and it is an input (consumed) by others.  If you count the value of the rice as output (agriculture) and again as input you are counting twice.

 

This does not mean that some people in other sectors, such as agriculture or construction, are not dependent on tourism but the total value of what they sell to tourists is the amount of money the tourists spend.  That is the tourism share of gdp.

 

A six degrees of separation kind of a thing? ????????

Bit of a reach by way of selling a convoluted agenda, ain't it? 

[arithai12]

5 hours ago, moe666 said:

I guess my neighbor thinks it is going to get better she has put up a for rent sign on her town house which  has been empty for more than a year. There is more activity around the old town in Chiang Mai. But that could be just the increase of Thai tourist up from Bangkok. There are more farangs around than say 6 months ago or even 3 months. More out on rented motorbikes and the aimless walk of a tourist is apparent.

Agree. I start seeing quite a few farangs in CM, who appear to be tourists. Still low numbers of course, but not zero as until recently. Let's enjoy this before there will be again thousands of elephant-trousers westerners and selfie-stick chinese.