Covid-19 Could Become Endemic in 2022, Says DDC

[snoop1130]

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - Due to the recent announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) which stated that it may be too early to categorize Covid-19 as an endemic within this year, Dr. Opas Karnkawinpong, Director-General of the Department of Disease Control, responded that the Ministry of Public Health is not against the announcement. He said the ministry did not mean to categorize Coronavirus as an endemic immediately. He stressed the disease can only become an endemic when it has less severity, when people’s immunity rises significantly, and when the country’s medical system is highly capable of handling it.

 

According to Dr. Opas, Thailand will consider Covid-19 an endemic when the fatality rate is low and controllable, and when people strictly follow the VUCA measures. VUCA stands for vaccine, universal prevention, Covid free setting, and ATK.

 

"We expect the disease will become endemic this year, not today or tomorrow. Different countries have different roadmaps and maybe against WHO’s announcement. UK and USA also predicted that Covid-19 may soon become endemic," said Dr. Opas.

 

He added Thailand is quite ahead of WHO and many countries in many things such as cross-vaccination, the country’s reopening, Phuket sandbox, and possibly this time the endemic forecast.

 

"We are not against anyone. Our decisions depend on the country’s context," said Dr. Opas.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2022-01-14

 

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[Moonlover]

 

12 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

According to Dr. Opas, Thailand will consider Covid-19 an endemic when the fatality rate is low and controllable, and when people strictly follow the VUCA measures. VUCA stands for vaccine, universal prevention, Covid free setting, and ATK.

When I went in search of VUCA, google came back with: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity.

 

Sounds quite appropriate to me.

[tomster]

On 1/14/2022 at 7:54 PM, snoop1130 said:

"We expect the disease will become endemic this year, not today or tomorrow. Different countries have different roadmaps and maybe against WHO’s announcement. UK and USA also predicted that Covid-19 may soon become endemic," said Dr. Opas.

Mexico is now fully open without silly "Thailand Pass" type requirements (others in South and Central America are going the same way) - how long can they justify milking the Covid fear to keep the protests of the streets?

 

At some point you have to open up properly...

Election coming Q3 or Q4 here, they desperately don't want the old normal back before that or even with 250 blocked seats because they will still get hammered.

It's going to be another very bumpy year, me tinks...

[spidermike007]

He added Thailand is quite ahead of WHO and many countries in many things such as cross-vaccination, the country’s reopening, Phuket sandbox, and possibly this time the endemic forecast.

 

Really? A statement like this is certainly proof that Thailand and it's so called experts are completely out to lunch and disconnected from reality. Thailand is ahead of many countries when it comes to their reopening? Did I misread that? 70 countries have been open for over a year, without any restrictions other than a double vax and a PCR test. And Thailand continues to embarrass itself with it's extreme timidity, inconsistent policy and cowardice. 

[RichardColeman]

6 hours ago, tomster said:

how long can they justify milking the Covid fear to keep the protests of the streets?

till the election is done and dusted would be my guess, then open fully

[DUNROAMIN]

I think we all knew that 12 months ago Sherlock.

[daveAustin]

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He added Thailand is quite ahead of WHO and many countries in many things such as cross-vaccination, the country’s reopening, Phuket sandbox, and possibly this time the endemic forecast.

Quite ahead of WHO eh? Mate you are not ahead in ANYTHING, though are behind the world in EVERYTHING. I’ve never read such tripe. Laos and Vietnam are all over you. You’re on par with Burma and North Korea. 

[newnative]

VUCA???  Maybe the most ridiculous acronym they've come up with.  Nice backpedaling, by the way, guy.

[NorthernRyland]

Way back in 2020 after COVID went around the entire world in a few months many of us including myself were saying it was already essentially endemic. How many more waves does Thailand need to see before they admit it's here to stay? The fact they're talking about COULD BE and 2022 means they still have learned anything from this experience.

 

Let's not forget about the WHO though! Remember when they were reluctant to declare a pandemic even after it had jumped multiple national borders? Now they're hesitant to declare it endemic even though it's been this for at least 12 months.

 

Bottom line is we should't listening to the WHO or Thailand on this matter.

 

Pandemic: a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease over a whole country or the world at a particular time

Endemic: (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area:

[jacko45k]

11 hours ago, tomster said:

Mexico is now fully open without silly "Thailand Pass" type requirements

And yesterday Mexico had 45,000 new infections and added 148 to its already high 300,000 deaths. Thailand had 8000 new infections and total deaths added 15 to make under 22,000.

Who does that make silly exactly?

[Danderman123]

24 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

Way back in 2020 after COVID went around the entire world in a few months many of us including myself were saying it was already essentially endemic. How many more waves does Thailand need to see before they admit it's here to stay? The fact they're talking about COULD BE and 2022 means they still have learned anything from this experience.

 

Let's not forget about the WHO though! Remember when they were reluctant to declare a pandemic even after it had jumped multiple national borders? Now they're hesitant to declare it endemic even though it's been this for at least 12 months.

 

Bottom line is we should't listening to the WHO or Thailand on this matter.

 

Pandemic: a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease over a whole country or the world at a particular time

Endemic: (of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area:

You must have a high opinion of yourself, compared with your opinion of the world's leading medical researchers. 

 

Can you remind me where you obtained your medical degree? 

[elgenon]

On 1/14/2022 at 8:30 PM, tomster said:

Mexico is now fully open without silly "Thailand Pass" type requirements (others in South and Central America are going the same way) - how long can they justify milking the Covid fear to keep the protests of the streets?

 

At some point you have to open up properly...

Election coming Q3 or Q4 here, they desperately don't want the old normal back before that or even with 250 blocked seats because they will still get hammered.

It's going to be another very bumpy year, me tinks...

My friends in Mexico now have Covid. Trying to eliminate it, like China is doing , is very doubtful. But they have the Olympics to worry about. It seems to depend on whether or not you think getting Covid is the best idea.

[arithai12]

Pandemic = insurance pays.

 

Endemic = insurance does not pay.

[Andy7575]

In 2019 which was pre pandemic the AVERAGE daily death toll in Thailand was 1,386 

I would like to know if all the reported Covid deaths are in addition to the 1,386 people who die every day or could it be that a  proportion of the reported Covid deaths would have died anyway?

 

There is an enormous difference between dying WITH Covid as opposed to dying FROM Covid 

[Enoon]

 

"He stressed the disease can only become an endemic when it has less severity, when people’s immunity rises significantly, and when the country’s medical system is highly capable of handling it."

 

Grade A gobbledygook.

 

Categorising a disease as endemic has nothing to do with its severity, neither has it do with the level of peoples immunity or if the medical system is able to deal with it.

 

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 1 - Section 11 - CDC

"The amount of a particular disease that is usually present in a community is referred to as the baseline or endemic level of the disease."

 

The simple explanation of the term is that a disease is an endemic disease, not "can only become an endemic" when it isn't going away any time soon and has effectively become "part of the furniture"..........it's always there.

 

Do they really not know what the term means...........or are they trying to keep the reality, one which Thailand shares with the rest of the world, from their population?

 

I'm going with the latter.

 

 

[NoshowJones]

Did that guy play Curly Watts on Coronation Street? ????

[NoshowJones]

8 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

till the election is done and dusted would be my guess, then open fully

Election?? These soldiers don't need an election, they have guns which have kept them in power for nearly 8 years.

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Quite ahead of WHO eh? Mate you are not ahead in ANYTHING, though are behind the world in EVERYTHING. I’ve never read such tripe. Laos and Vietnam are all over you. You’re on par with Burma and North Korea. 

Agreed. But, you forgot to mention Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, and Papua. All nations Thailand is descending towards. 

[keithkarmann]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

And yesterday Mexico had 45,000 new infections and added 148 to its already high 300,000 deaths. Thailand had 8000 new infections and total deaths added 15 to make under 22,000.

Who does that make silly exactly?

Perhaps Mexico does a lot more testing.

[bananafish]

Is it too early to declare water wet? 

[jacko45k]

53 minutes ago, keithkarmann said:

Perhaps Mexico does a lot more testing.

Testing doesn't kill them!

[RichardColeman]

5 hours ago, daveAustin said:

You’re on par with Burma and North Korea. 

I don't think so............yet, but the continuing dropping in the democracy index is an indication they are well on their way there

[VBF]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

till the election is done and dusted would be my guess, then open fully

Except that when the election is done and dusted and they've won democratically (???? ) what's to stop them finding more reasons to restrict people?

Or am I being unduly pessimistic today?

[Misc1973]

7 hours ago, jacko45k said:

And yesterday Mexico had 45,000 new infections and added 148 to its already high 300,000 deaths. Thailand had 8000 new infections and total deaths added 15 to make under 22,000.

Who does that make silly exactly?

Because Thailand testing rates are one of the lowest in the world. 

 

 

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, Misc1973 said:

Because Thailand testing rates are one of the lowest in the world. 

 

 

Really.......

It is higher than Mexico..... !

[Danderman123]

On 1/15/2022 at 1:14 PM, yuznmeez said:

 

2,000+ are dying every day in the US from Covid.

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, Andy7575 said:

In 2019 which was pre pandemic the AVERAGE daily death toll in Thailand was 1,386 

I would like to know if all the reported Covid deaths are in addition to the 1,386 people who die every day or could it be that a  proportion of the reported Covid deaths would have died anyway?

 

There is an enormous difference between dying WITH Covid as opposed to dying FROM Covid 

The term you are grasping for is “excess mortality “.

 

As for your last point, it’s a tired old cliche which has been explained here repeatedly.

[RedRoadRunner]

What kinda stiff are those guys smoking ???

[nickmondo]

everyone is ahead of WHO, they are useless

[LetsGoJoe]

The history of every respiratory pandemic is that it turns into an endemic flu and cold-causer within a year or two even without any intervention of any sort.  The 1918 pandemic did so, the 1890s pandemic believed to be caused by a beta coronavirus (of the same general family as Covid) did so and so have many, many others.