18 minutes ago, mjnaus said:

Time to get the hell out of here. Europe is looking pretty nice right now.

Me too. I was looking and hoping to avoid quarantine, but if this now goes exponential we might find ourselves stuck here. next few weeks will be revealing.

Not a nice trajectory to be on!

 

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The epidemic seemed okay until about 3 weeks ago, perhaps the Delta variant is the problem now.

currently, based on the fact that 90% of cases are alpha, alpha is the problem.

 

delta is next month. Brace yourself for that one. It’ll be a doozy.

2 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Not a nice trajectory to be on!

 

The logarithmic graph is far more telling about how it's behaving.  It is going up.

Something weird happened in India.  They had a huge wave and it suddenly dropped down.  I'm hoping that it happens in Thailand too, and the rest of Asia for that matter.  

10 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except that, at some point, hospitals will not be able to accept new patients, so people will die at home, and not be counted.

 

The obvious reaction to filled hospitals is to send asymptomatics in field hospitals into self isolation, and put symptomatic individuals in beds in field hospitals. Better for sick people to be quarantined in field hospitals than to stay at home with their families. Yeah, I know the field hospitals can’t do much for symptomatic patients, but the alternative will lead to catastrophe.

Very true. I didn’t want to bring in an additional factor of health care collapse which would increase the percentage of sick people that die, because it’s currently a variable unknown.

 

but the extrapolation of daily deaths from daily cases from 10 days ago, is a fairly certain outcome. It’s by no means the worst plausible scenario that could be seen, but it is very likely if nothing changes.

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The epidemic seemed okay until about 3 weeks ago, perhaps the Delta variant is the problem now.

76,592 cases in the last 4 wks. If it keeps going this way the nxt 4 wks will be >150,000 cases. Thailand by then will be knocking on the door of the top 40 worse ranked countries globally.

p.s. It hasn't seemed ok since mid-April.

3 minutes ago, Whale said:

Me too. I was looking and hoping to avoid quarantine, but if this now goes exponential we might find ourselves stuck here. next few weeks will be revealing.

 

You mean quarantine on the other side? Or when returning to Thailand at some point?

 

We're heading back to The Netherlands where, for now, Thailand is still listed as "save" as therefor no entry measures apply. Given the circumstances, that will likely soon change. We'll be out of here next week, so hopefully in time before Thailand is no longer on the list of save countries.

 

As for quarantine upon returning; we won't be back until next year. I have done the quarantine nonsense in Bangkok twice now and won't be doing it again. Essentially, we won't be back until things are, somewhat, back to normal. 

 

Fingers crossed Thailand figures out a way to boot these government muppets out of power and get a real government for a change. Long shot, I know ????

Best of luck with your plans!

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

We have got to the point now when deaths from road accidents are lower than #COVID19 deaths. Yesterday there were 37 deaths from accidents and 61 from covid #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1410768591603998720

 

Yes, and it may get worse.  Where are the former posters who always tried to outdo Covid with Road death statistics, looks like they have faded like wall flowers.  However, road deaths will always be there while hopefully Covid gets taken care of, well it will always be here like the other viruses that have come, waned, but still are here.

29 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

My GF, who is from MYanmar, has been trying to get registered for a vaccine, but was told "can not, Thai or falang only"  Looking to register her for the Moderna Vaccine, and she has been placed on a waiting list for our local private hospital.  She has better insurance than most, as she has a PCH Optima Plus plan, but people look down upon her as she is from Myanmar.  Her extended family all of them are now in the hospitals having been moved from the field hospital side as they are no longer asymptomatic and her two aunts are still on ventilators.

Yes it is disgusting how some foreigners are being treated here regards getting a vaccination.

My Thai sister in law is a school teacher and got her Sinovac shot on Monday. A Burmese teacher with her from the same school was told no vaccine unless she paid.... appalling way to treat anybody.

Aide to the PM “Sir, we just hit 6,000 a day!”

 

PM “Tourists in Phuket?”

43 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

61 Deaths is a definite concern, a growing number of cases as well indicate that this has no intention of slowing down and unless vaccines are truly rolled out it will have true effects on the economy and tourism prospects.  Beds have filled up and many more are waiting for beds according to the 34 Amarin TV news this morning.  People are also very frustrated.

Pretty certain these are only hospital deaths and the real number is being masked.

21 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

When you say “the average of everywhere else”, I think you are talking about the percentage mortality rates prevailing in other countries. At least I presume that is the case. I am talking about whole numbers, not percentages.

 

it’s so much nicer to say the mortality rate is less than 1%, than say 240 people died today.

 

my point was, we probably need to stop thinking in terms of 50 people dying a day and mentally steel ourselves to deaths in the hundreds. At least, that is what current and likely future case numbers suggest.

 

I don’t know about you, but I need some time to adjust to the thought that deaths now look likely to rise to such a level.

 

Oh I agree.

And what has been stated here many times before, this is entirely dependent on if the real numbers are actually being reported.  Some say they aren't, and I"m inclined to believe them.  

Again, I'd worry far more about long term symptoms than dying.  They are not pleasant and in many cases are life altering.  

25 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

We have got to the point now when deaths from road accidents are lower than #COVID19 deaths. Yesterday there were 37 deaths from accidents and 61 from covid #Thailand

 

That is going to upset a lot of covid deniers........their usual  mantra will need to be amended.

NEVER FORGIVE, NEVER FORGET!

The master race speaks!

 

There are no tourists in the country apart from a few in the sandpit and it's still all gone to s**t!

 

who is to blame now, sir?

Perhaps yourself and your band of sycophants???

 

I would not put it past this lost to lay the blame on those in the Phuket sandbox when it really does hit the fan! It's certainly not beyond the realms of possibility with these clowns!

36 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Just to add to my post above regarding future death rates. If 3k daily cases results in 60 deaths a day, 6k daily cases will equal 120 daily deaths and 12k daily cases will equal 240 daily deaths.

 

it’s not as precise as that, but we probably need to start to get our minds around those sorts of numbers, because unless something is done to change the trajectory of the daily cases figure, they are the most probable outcome in the near term.

Deaths generally tail cases by about 21 days. So the death figure you are seeing now most likely come from the days of 2k cases a day

L*E*A*D*E*R*S*H*I*P

 

I think those who can get out now should flee Thailand. The situation is looking more like the Philippines by the day.

 

Several months ago I was astounded by the rates of infection (in the thousands) in the PH. I thought then that Thailand was only lucky to be relatively COVID-free. I saw at that time there was no reason why  what was happening in the PH couldn’t happen in TH.

 

My Thai wife and I jumped ship when the daily infections rose to over 2k and it was clear to any child that the govt was lying about its vaccine rollout.

 

Did we make the right decision? Well you be the judge: we flew into Canada June 9th and tomorrow July 2nd we are both receiving our first shots. The vaccines are free, courtesy of the Canadian govt. We also have our choice between Pfizer and Moderna.

 

The Thai Govt is spending billions in support for those economically impacted by COIVD. Meanwhile if they had simply used a large fraction of that to buy quality vaccines, then the country wouldn’t be spiraling out of control today.

 

it is just a shame what a failure of leadership is doing to Thailand. ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

That is going to upset a lot of covid deniers........their usual  mantra will need to be amended.

The farang who introduced me to Thailand, so my longest farang friend here, is a denier. He'll probably be saying the government is hiding the fact that those people dying are actually the ones who had the vax.

Just now, Enzian said:

The farang who introduced me to Thailand, so my longest farang friend here, is a denier. He'll probably be saying the government is hiding the fact that those people dying are actually the ones who had the vax.

You can't beat them.......best just to smile and nod especially in a bar!!!

55 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

My GF, who is from MYanmar, has been trying to get registered for a vaccine, but was told "can not, Thai or falang only"  Looking to register her for the Moderna Vaccine, and she has been placed on a waiting list for our local private hospital.  She has better insurance than most, as she has a PCH Optima Plus plan, but people look down upon her as she is from Myanmar.  Her extended family all of them are now in the hospitals having been moved from the field hospital side as they are no longer asymptomatic and her two aunts are still on ventilators.

Sad to hear, hope they get well.

 

Yesterday i finally was able to pay for moderna vaccine from Thornburi hospital group. I wonder how long I have to wait.

39 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except that, at some point, hospitals will not be able to accept new patients, so people will die at home, and not be counted.

 

The obvious reaction to filled hospitals is to send asymptomatics in field hospitals into self isolation, and put symptomatic individuals in beds in field hospitals. Better for sick people to be quarantined in field hospitals than to stay at home with their families. Yeah, I know the field hospitals can’t do much for symptomatic patients, but the alternative will lead to catastrophe.

True so the death figures will be off.

 

But I dont get why you worry about the asymptomatic cases. Th problem is with ICU places two totally different things. The problem is the increasing amount of people needing to go to the ICU and there are almost no places there.

 

Hard to make extra beds and get extra nurses and dr's. Those taking care of the asymptomatic cases are not suited to go work on ICU its a different problem.

Would you say it's not a good idea to come to Bangkok for a while

7 minutes ago, Enzian said:

The farang who introduced me to Thailand, so my longest farang friend here, is a denier. He'll probably be saying the government is hiding the fact that those people dying are actually the ones who had the vax.

A lot of deniers are bar flies who look for excuses to open the night life. They don't reason from facts but from their desire to go out drinking and partying. While i understand that this lockdown is boring (i hate it too) people should understand that opening up high risk venues that are not essential will only contribute to the extra spread.

 

Then of course you got the more crazy ones who just think covid is a flue and vaccinations are bad.

 

To bad Darwins law does not work so good in our current society. In the old times when people were stupid they died now they get rescued anyway. 

12 minutes ago, ABCbangkok said:

The Thai Govt is spending billions in support for those economically impacted by COIVD

Who are they supporting ? 

Currently ranked number 72 from the link below.

 

264,834 total cases since the beginning of 2020 ( 18 months ago ) -

210,702 total recovered -

  52,052 active cases -

  = 2,080 total deaths

 

                                Closed cases

 

          210,702 (99%)                           2080 (1%)       

(Recovered/Discharged)                    Deaths

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/#graph-cases-daily

 

 

10 minutes ago, robblok said:

A lot of deniers are bar flies who look for excuses to open the night life. They don't reason from facts but from their desire to go out drinking and partying. While i understand that this lockdown is boring (i hate it too) people should understand that opening up high risk venues that are not essential will only contribute to the extra spread.

 

Then of course you got the more crazy ones who just think covid is a flue and vaccinations are bad.

 

To bad Darwins law does not work so good in our current society. In the old times when people were stupid they died now they get rescued anyway. 

It's paranoia.  

 

It's not nice to laugh at people who are sick.  (not that that's what you were doing).  

 

Like most who start to act erratically eventually their friends drop off.  With the internet you can live in a real deluded world where fellow people such as yourself believe in the same things and think that the whole world is wrong.  It's really sad.  

1 hour ago, mjnaus said:

Time to get the hell out of here. Europe is looking pretty nice right now.

We flew out mid May. So glad we did. Thailand was a great place to spend the Pandemic up until April '21.

 

We got our first free of charge Pfizer shot less than 24 hours of arriving home in the US and are now fully vaxxed. Things are pretty much back to normal in the US. Yes, cases are still being recorded but those who chose not to be vaccinated are pretty much the only ones getting sick with COVID.

 

And the figures are far more believable here. I was shocked to learn that the Universities in our area had mandatory once a week testing for all students and staff the entire spring semester. Tests are available free of charge to anyone who requests one at any time as often as they want. Anyone with the slightest sniffle is immediately tested. It's no wonder the cases are somewhat high. I feel that Thailand's would be at least 10x higher if testing was so profuse. 

 

Fortunately we have a home in the US, as well as in Thailand, but I can't imagine going back to Thailand until 4th quarter 2021 earliest. 

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

61 Deaths is a definite concern,

 

I hate to say this as it sounds very insensitive, but the government and its CCSA puppet are clearly unconcerned about daily case numbers, the only thing that is going to force them to take the action needed to get this outbreak under control and accelerate their inadequate vaccination programme is a very large spike in daily deaths. I don't believe the Thai people will stand by and accept the government's inaction when hundreds, or even thousands, of them are dying every day. It's an unfortunate thing to have to say, but they are sleepwalking into a disaster at the moment and the politicians need a very sharp kick up the backside to wake them up to the growing mess that is reality here.

2 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

It's paranoia.  

 

It's not nice to laugh at people who are sick.  (not that that's what you were doing).  

 

Like most who start to act erratically eventually their friends drop off.  With the internet you can live in a real deluded world where fellow people such as yourself believe in the same things and think that the whole world is wrong.  It's really sad.  

What is sad is that those deluded people influence others and spread misinformation. The internet has given those people far too much power. I am not laughing at them (maybe a bit) but I am more worried about the damage they do.

 

Those not believing act irresponsible making it worse for all of us and the more people they convince the worse it get.

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

At some point panic sets in. 

A large part of that comes from growing belief that there is inadequate supply of vaccines. 

Piecemeal announcements of 1.5mil from here and there along with ....."we are in talks with this or that company does not instill confidence.

From the outset I was in the group.... "Stuff the online registration etc....I will wait until it's available in private hospitals and pay whatever".

 

My guess was mid late October (Forget that, it will be much later).

If it comes (moderna etc) that will also be bun fight.

 

 

I believe by that time they will have to start to re-vaccinate all those that got the Chinese junk with something that actually works against these new variants "and possible new variants we have yet to see", so anyone that has booked a spot for October might be dissapointed because the Thai government will prioritises these vaccines for their own, foreigners will drop down the priority to soi dog level again.

 

The only hope is that our governments get the finger out as France did and set up a vaccine program for their citizens abroad. The only other choice after that could be returning to you home country - you then be rinced upon your return to Thailand 

3 minutes ago, robblok said:

What is sad is that those deluded people influence others and spread misinformation. The internet has given those people far too much power. I am not laughing at them (maybe a bit) but I am more worried about the damage they do.

 

Those not believing act irresponsible making it worse for all of us and the more people they convince the worse it get.

I agree.

Mostly they influence their own ilk though, not someone with critical thinking skills.  

They come across as nothing more than argumentative and rude.  Forwarding <deleted> all the time that nobody has the time or energy to look at from crackpots on the net.  

And when they are proven wrong they get all silent until some other silly argument comes up. 

I don't argue with them.  I ignore them.