File photo//REUTERS

 

Deputy chief of the Tourism Council of Thailand Wichit Prakopkosol said that he was absolutely thrilled with the Thai government's plans to reopen the country within 120 days. 

 

He was particularly gushing about the government not delaying the Phuket sandbox that kicked off Thursday. 

 

He fully anticipated that to proceed brilliantly without a hitch and then nine other provinces - Bangkok, Phangnga, Krabi, Chonburi, Surat Thani, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khirikhan, Buriram and Chiang Mai - to follow suit. 

 

He then told Manager that he had come up with four scenarios about how the reopening of Thailand to foreign tourism in 2021 would pan out.

 

ASEAN Now advises members who are sitting in front of their computer screens to finish their mouthful of coffee before proceeding. 

 

We'd hate to be responsible for unnecessary splutter and equipment damage. 

 

Scenario #1: The Chinese allow their nationals to travel in October and Bangkok is fully opened and the vaccine rollout is proceeding well = 3 million tourists spending 212 billion baht.

 

Scenario #2: The ten provinces are open but the Chinese government says NO to foreign travel = 2 million foreign tourists spending 152 billion baht.

 

Scenario #3: China says YES to its nationals travelling abroad but Bangkok is not able to open up = 1.4 million tourists spending 107 million baht

 

"This one is the most likely" revealed Wichit saying that he expects the Chinese to allow their people to travel in October.

 

ASEAN Now notes that earlier this year we published the result of a huge online survey that revealed the vast majority of Chinese would only travel to Thailand SIX MONTHS AFTER the country has the virus under control.

 

By no stretch of the imagination could that be October though Manager did not say where Wichit got his information from. 

 

Finally....

 

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit): Bangkok can't accept foreign tourists and the Chinese say NO = Only 1 million foreign tourists spending a paltry 8.3 billion.

 

(Here we suspect that Manager might have meant 83 billion and put their decimal point in the wrong place - your guess is as good as ours). 

 

Wichit was making his assessments on the eve of the opening of the Sandbox. 

 

Now for some Sunday reality folks:

 

On the opening day PM Prayuth Chan-ocha welcomed 51 tourists from Singapore and in total there were a few hundred for the grand opening. 

 

Yes, the authorities have said this is just a trial run and more are expected to follow later and you have to start somewhere etc etc.

 

But meanwhile in Bangkok and elsewhere the country was in the grip of the very worst stage of the pandemic with deaths and new cases smashing records almost daily. 

 

Thirty four provinces reported infections stemming from Bangkok.

 

In the capital pubs were warned to stay shut and restaurants told not to allow in-house dining or face huge fines even jail.

 

In Pattaya drinking was banned from 8pm to 4 am.

 

Great swathes of tourist businesses in once thriving areas remain shuttered. 

 

-- © Copyright ASEAN NOW 2021-07-03

 

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10 minutes ago, webfact said:

 

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit): Bangkok can't accept foreign tourists and the Chinese say NO = Only 1 million foreign tourists spending a paltry 8.3 billion.

 

(Here we suspect that Manager might have meant 83 billion and put their decimal point in the wrong place - your guess is as good as ours). 

 

Damn those cheap Charlie's .. 

 

If any confirmation was needed they have lost the plot then this it .. 

 

My dollars is on scenario 4 winning out no problem ..

Scenarios are dime a dozen and so are dreaming, reality however, is what will happen tomorrow, not in a 120 days, and so far things are not looking good for Thailand as far as vaccinating their population...

17 minutes ago, webfact said:

Bangkok, Phangnga, Krabi, Chonburi, Surat Thani, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khirikhan, Buriram and Chiang Ma

How do they operate as a sandbox............is it total reliance on these tracking devices?

and here we go again with TAT estimates, this time they have 4 scenarios.... started to miss their usual weekly BS     555

Projections !

Scenario #1: The Chinese allow their nationals to travel in October and Bangkok is fully opened and the vaccine rollout is proceeding well = 3 million tourists spending 212 billion baht. Chinese nationals will not be allowed to travel and the vaccine roll will still be a complete and utter disaster

 

Scenario #2: The ten provinces are open but the Chinese government says NO to foreign travel = 2 million foreign tourists spending 152 billion baht. So many countries will be on each others Red Lists this won't happen

 

Scenario #3: China says YES to its nationals travelling abroad but Bangkok is not able to open up = 1.4 million tourists spending 107 million baht. 1.4 million from where? Never, Never Land.

 

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit): Bangkok can't accept foreign tourists and the Chinese say NO = Only 1 million foreign tourists spending a paltry 8.3 billion. Still 1 million?......Not a snowball's.......

Four potential predictions?

 

Regular Nostradamus here.

 

 

31 minutes ago, webfact said:

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit

#5 (called the "kwam Jing" or the reality): a few thousand tourists, IF they're lucky. 

 

 

Really good to see the Thai government is an equal opportunities employer!

 

If you clearly have severe mental health issues you are more than welcome in a ministerial position.

It's difficult to predict, especially about the future...????

Switch to just flashing your vaccinations cards at airports and immigration and I can come up with a far better financial outcome scenario.

 

I also cannot see the Chinese coming. It's in China's best interests to let Thailand stay closed and keep selling them vaccine. 100% they will say you need to buy the upgraded Delta chinese vaccines later before we allow our tourists to come.

Scenario #5 Phuket has to shut down again due to local infections.  No other provinces open up.  The Chinese can't come. 300,000.

Nobody's coming, 50 to 100k max unless they remove all the hoops.

 

With the hoops then I would expect the numbers to be the same as the end of last year - the procedure is almost the same, only that you're allowed to walk around a little in a place that's closed.

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

 

He then told Manager that he had come up with four scenarios about how the reopening of Thailand to foreign tourism in 2021 would pan out.

 

What they are failing to understand with all the schemes they continue trotting out is how visitors they are hoping to lure ( their words not mine ) are actually viewing all of this .. 

Prior to covid part of the attraction of Thailand was the ability of booking a flight on you're phone in 5 min's and getting a 30 day visa on entry once you'd landed .. you were able to visit an exotic ( I use exotic sparingly ) country with minimal hassle .. that was always part of the reason why Thailand became such a popular destination .. Now in covid days the hoops you are asked to jump through just to fly in are simply off putting to a lot of folk .. factor in the less than impressive way Thailand has dealt with covid itself with the constant conflicting streams of infomation and what happens if a visitor then contracts it while there in terms of both their stay and conditions imposed on return to their own country .. all of this does not make an appealling prospect if you are flicking through holiday brochures for a holiday after the last 18 mths we've all had .. 

No millions. Maybe couple of hundred thousands. If u want millions to arrive u need to ease restriction completely. Would a chinaman fly to Phuket to have 3 nose swabs for 300 bucks? Nope, No, Niet! Not gonna happen. He is goin to Hainan.

Get a PCR test before flight, quick(FREE) test at airportbon arrival. Dont scare tourists with ur stupid HOTELOSPITALS. Just put them in a designated wing for couple of days. And if no symptoms then just let them free. And thats it. Then Maybe a millions. 

And for now, with speed like this(houndred jews and few expats a day) u will gain hopefully 200.000 in Phuket. And maybe 400.000 for BKK(if u open it). These are ur numbers.

So they expect millions of Chinese tourists to apply at Thai embassies for COE??? Arrange and pay in advance for flight. Hotel, $100.000 covid insurance and tests. Some hope. Even Westerner genuine tourists will baulk at that. 

I read that if there are substantial infections in Phuket that the sandbox will be cancelled. 

The general official attitude seens to be that they think the danger comes from fully vaccinated arrivals and not from unvaccinated or partially vaccinated Thais in a country with meagre vaccination levels and lots of covid. 

Scenario 5: England win the Euros and, due to accelerated global warming, tourists flock to full moon parties on Brighton and Scarborough beaches and bypass the need for far eastern escapes until global cooling in 2051.

 

In mid May, the state council for China laid out the plan for travel reopening - 2H 2022. So kiss that goodbye. So Scenario 4 it is.

 

But with cases surging out of control on the mainland, good luck with keeping Thailand off everyones do not travel list,.

 

As to Phuket, they will just lie about the numbers of cases caused Thailand domestic travellers anyway. Too much face to be lost there at the top level and would wipe out the wet dream of October.

If the Chinese are allowed to go to Thailand I'll eat my hat on tic toc.  

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Scenario #5

 

Tourism Council announce a soi dog ran off with their crystal ball so they will no longer be able to give predictions

 

Elsewhere a  retired hairdresser named Somchai Iwanna finds what looks like a giant diamond ball while gardening in his backyard

his video has gone viral on FaceBook

 

13 hours ago, Bangkok Days said:

Scenario 5: England win the Euros and, due to accelerated global warming, tourists flock to full moon parties on Brighton and Scarborough beaches and bypass the need for far eastern escapes until global cooling in 2051.

 

Well, it's more likely than the TAT's 4 scenarios ...

"He was particularly gushing about the government not delaying the Phuket sandbox that kicked off Thursday"......... Good Morning to all.????

He forgot scenario #5:

Thailand gets the full Indian virus treatment starting in August, with 50,000 new cases every day and over 1,000 people dying. Hospitals and crematoria are overwhelmed, patients are dying in hospital car parks and bodies washing up on the beaches. Finally, the government abandons its plans to reopen to foreign tourists as nobody was making a booking anyway, and puts the entire country under total lockdown. Total foreign tourists = those who arrived in the Phuket sandbox before it was abandoned, or less than 10,000.

I have to leave Thailand for a month, starting in September, and plan to return in October. I really, really don’t want to have to go through a 14 day quarantine again, so I am hoping that there will be alternatives to ASQ in October. Even the 4 test Phuket Sandbox seems better than ASQ, but if this epidemic gets worse, I don’t know what will be available in October.

 

19 hours ago, khunPer said:

It's difficult to predict, especially about the future...????

Why don't they just give up? We have!

I am all for country opening and tourists coming , sadly idiots running this country do not seem to have a clue.

 

TAT stated 130000 booked to come to Phuket , 300 showed up. Now they claiming 3 millions at best or 1 million at worst. If they keep say idiotic rules and regulations and hoops , at best 6000 will come at worst 2000 is more realistic figures 

Here is the most likely ! 
Scenario #5 the Chinese aren’t allowed to come for at least a year , best amount arrived by end of the year is 100,000 people and the country is still under 40% population vaccinated at least once and bars and restaurants continue to close and open weekly at the slightest positive covid test !

Unless the timid ones gain some courage, and open the nation to tourism, with no restrictions, no quarantine and no sandbox, they will only get 10-30,000 tourists, for the remainder of 2021. 

 

Require double vaccination, with a quality vax, unlike the Sinojunk being used here. And require a covid negative test. And restrict only the nations that are at the top of the covid list. That is all.

 

And remember, with the daily count rising here, international tourists are taking a far greater risk by being here, and being exposed to the Thais, than the Thai people are taking by being exposed to them. Lastly, Thailand needs the world right now, 20X more than the world needs Thailand. This is not the COTKU (Center of the known universe). The locals are in a world of hurt, economically. And it may last a very, very long time. I predict five years, and the fallout will be worse than 1997. And most of it appears to be sabotage. Willful or not.